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Will be interesting to see how much the ratio can retrace before heading down again. Maybe to 74/75? Now 72.

 

gold_2_year_silver-2.png

Those numbers would coincide with hitting the 200 MA on the daily chart.

 

sc-2-1.png

 

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I found this comment about the gold/silver ratio interesting:

We have been watching the GSR (among other indicators) tirelessly and its message for the markets has been actively bearish for about a month now. To review, when silver is rising relative to gold it indicates a willingness on the part of market participants to accept risk, to 'play'. The GSR has been working like a more sensitive version of the VIX in recent years. Ah, but there is literally a world of ratios that can be used to advantage when attempting to gauge the winds of the markets.

I'm still trying to get by birdbrain around why the ratio moves as it does.

 

That quote is from this article which is mostly about the ratio of $GOLD to CRB. The ratio seems to have consolidated in recent months.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/tanashian071009.html

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Um, the cuddly Mr Morgan, the same Mr Morgan that initially predicted silver bottoming out at $14.50/oz during the start of last year's correction, then only to revise his targets downwards once the correction accelerated and legions of hopefuls had been misled. More amusing was his sitting on the fence once the actual bottom had been reached.

 

Still, a whole lot better than the likes of Jason Hommel with his infinite silver prices e.g. "$8,000/oz here we come" or Mr Turk's "+$30/oz by Q3 2008" or Ted Butler's usual mid-correction declarations of "there's never been a better time to buy!" or "this is the last chance you'll ever get before the concentrated silver shorts default."

 

Of course he could be right on this occasion but so could a pinhead be when you blindly shove it into the silver chart. Due diligence as always especially given silver's propensity to disappoint both on the up and downsides...

 

As they say, there's nothing more dangerous in the investment world than a silver bug. Ask Jim Sinclair if you don't believe me...

 

EDIT: Nearly forgot the Jim Puplava one when he proceeded to rant on about how he was gonna buy a tonne of physical bullion silver for every dollar the spot price went down by starting at $12.50/oz. Geeze, no wonder the guy had to wait four months for delivery, he must have taken on half the world's annual production by the time the price had finally bottomed. :lol:

 

I dont think that Jim 'i am backing up the truck to buy at these prices' Puplava is so wrong really. He could be a genuine kind of guy. Almost certainly gold and silver are going to see higher prices but i think these metals are often traders markets. Zignic is correct to say that Silver at 8 pounds is a good price but that does not mean we will not see much lower prices.

 

Where i would disagree with Zignic is buying coins is good value. If he can get the underlying metal at a good price then no problems but hoping to keep a coin as a collectors item over a period of perhaps years to ensure it can be sold to a fellow collector without going thru a dealer with perhaps 30% markdown could be a problem with just selling the metal as metal.

 

A phrase of Jim rogers comes to mind when oil was at 140. 'Sure i believe in oil but no i am not buying at these prices - oil is at an all time high - but yes of course i hold oil, oil is going to go much higher.'

 

The Jims will be right almost 100% gauranteed for sure certain fact.

 

The only problem i have with the argument though is i think that oil for example is only going to be over 140 again when we have a major economic recovery from where we are now, and in that case property and just about every thing with a price will also be back at all time highs.

 

And just continuing with that theme, insane oil prices are 100% gauranteed when we get insanely easy credit - how can a person not see this connection? How can teenagers for example, afford to drive around in circles burning oil without easy credit? The word is they are not doing that anymore while money is too tight to mention, and how do you buy stuff without money?

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Morgan is sounding more and more sober and deflationary these days.. which is an improvement.

I've found that nearly all the economic pundits that have newsletters or internet radio shows have been severely humbled by the markets.

 

Paul Hill of moneyweek and "gold is in a bubble fame" has drastically cut back his newsletter promo statement. Gone are the ridiculous claims that stocks he can tell you about will go up 400%. Certainly didn't happen with Motive Inc! Nor Regenersis! More telling though is the fact that his promo page now makes NO mention of his track record. I suspect it has been so poor he doesn't want you to see it. Gold in a bubble! My god man get a grip!

 

Jim Puplava made a BIG deal on financial sense about having guests with opposing views.

 

Morgan told subscribers to trade out of silver earlier this year!

 

How times have changed. Much more sobriety.

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Does anyone know why silver britannias (£13.86/cid) are cheaper than aussie kooks (£15.12/cid) when the brit is a limited issue?

 

Double-agent

 

Where are you getting that price from for Britannias? I see 22.5 pounds on the royal mint web site

 

http://www.royalmint.com/store/BritishSilver/BR09AGN.aspx

 

Perth mint prices seem equally astronomical from what i can see so far.

 

Brisbane-Coin-Show-Special-Kookaburra-Silver-Coin-Reverse.jpg

 

Other things being equal perth mint silver is more highly refined and is more valueable than the more impure Royal mint silver

 

Jim Puplava made a BIG deal on financial sense about having guests with opposing views.

 

Morgan told subscribers to trade out of silver earlier this year!

 

How times have changed. Much more sobriety.

 

I had not realised that. I got the impression people were saying that Puru Saxena was saying something new on the show.

 

 

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thanks. Worth keeping an eye on these.

 

it's time like these when I envy the likes of you and wren - less vat to pay in the eurozone!

 

I ordered some brits from cid at a slightly higher price, if the coin price goes down I may by some more; the problem with brits is that because they are limited you don't know when cid's supplies will run out. I put in a largish order back in March and cid could not meet it and removed the coin from their inventory (as documented on this thread). When they reappeared, I got in early just to be sure.

 

 

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when silver is rising relative to gold it indicates a willingness on the part of market participants to accept risk, to 'play'

 

I found this comment about the gold/silver ratio interesting:

 

I'm still trying to get by birdbrain around why the ratio moves as it does.

 

What he seems to be saying is that gold is a safe haven currency so tends to rise in emotionally challenging times and fall when there is not so much to worry about. Silver though is essentially an industrial commodity produced mainly as a by product of copper refining that can only be easily sold if there is an underlying physical demand for copper or silver or aluminium and so forth, so if you buy it you are anticipating higher demand in the future so your risk is that it will not rise in price when you 'play' by buying it.

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it's time like these when I envy the likes of you and wren - less vat to pay in the eurozone!

 

I ordered some brits from cid at a slightly higher price, if the coin price goes down I may by some more; the problem with brits is that because they are limited you don't know when cid's supplies will run out. I put in a largish order back in March and cid could not meet it and removed the coin from their inventory (as documented on this thread). When they reappeared, I got in early just to be sure.

Unfortunately CID's silver quota for this year for selling to Finland has now been used up (2 or 3 weeks ago). So now we cannot buy silver from Finland at all until next year!

 

They charged me 7% VAT for silver which I suppose is the German rate.

 

I feel sorry for those in the UK paying, what is it, 15% VAT?

 

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The following article from ZealIntelligence argues that over the last several years investment in silver rather than industrial demand has been driving the silver bull market.

The bottom line is silver investment has become the driving force behind silver's secular bull. A greater number of investors are realizing the importance of diversifying away from the general markets and the dollar. And one of the tools that has greatly helped market silver to the investing public is the Silver Trust ETF. SLV alone is responsible for a large portion of silver investment growth and continues to draw in stock-market capital.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/wright071009.html

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The following article from ZealIntelligence argues that over the last several years investment in silver rather than industrial demand has been driving the silver bull market.

 

I think you could argue the same is true of other metals which have fallen in price as this crisis has developed. It is the same kind of thing we see with property where investment houses are bought where there is insufficient underlying demand to support the prices being paid if you take out the investment demand pushing up prices. Once the prices plateau the investment demand also falls away and there is insufficient demand of either type to support the price until lower levels are reached and demand returns.

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The article tracks the amount of silver in SLV as a measure of investment demand.

 

Investment demand held up when the silver price crashed and has since got stronger.

 

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Does anyone know why silver britannias (£13.86/cid) are cheaper than aussie kooks (£15.12/cid) when the brit is a limited issue?

 

CID are clearly stupid.

 

I paid £14.19 for my first set of Brits. I expected the coins to sell out within minutes. They went up to £14.79 a few minutes after my order and then back down to 14.39.

 

£13.86 is way too cheap. Is there a danger that CID will crash the Britannia prices if they keep selling them this cheap year after year?

 

 

...

I feel sorry for those in the UK paying, what is it, 15% VAT?

 

Yeah, that's right. :(

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CID are clearly stupid.

 

I paid £14.19 for my first set of Brits. I expected the coins to sell out within minutes. They went up to £14.79 a few minutes after my order and then back down to 14.39.

 

£13.86 is way too cheap. Is there a danger that CID will crash the Britannia prices if they keep selling them this cheap year after year?

 

i think we will know more when they run out (if) due to their limited inventory.

 

re. the kookaburra, older years sell at a premium (like brits), my guess is that they are sold at a premium from the start and hence will sell less and hold higher value?

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i think we will know more when they run out (if) due to their limited inventory.

 

re. the kookaburra, older years sell at a premium (like brits), my guess is that they are sold at a premium from the start and hence will sell less and hold higher value?

 

The difference between the Kook and Koala prices at CID is unusual. Last year the prices were very similar.

 

In 2008 my average purchase prices were (including delivery)

 

Koala: £14.60 (each) mixed years

Kook: £14.46 (each) mixed years

 

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Ratio nearing 73. Anyone thinking of buying silver with gold if it hits 80? :rolleyes:

Silver seems undervalued here:

 

...

So, 1/40 to 1/45 Roman pounds of gold (an aureus) where worth 25/72 to 25/87 Roman pounds of silver (a denarius). The Roman gold:silver ratio was therefore between 13.9:1 and 12.9:1, which is also very sensible.

...

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Ratio nearing 73. Anyone thinking of buying silver with gold if it hits 80? :rolleyes:

 

It is my plan to do so in the future using GoldMoney. I can’t at the moment because I haven’t swapped any silver to gold yet (I don’t have any gold at GM)

 

For now, I will stick to buying silver. I have aquired some new funds and will be able to average in throughout the year

 

I think things will get a lot more volatile in the future and allow me to swing trade between the metals.

 

GM has platinum too.

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Silver seems undervalued here:

The Roman gold:silver ratio was therefore between 13.9:1 and 12.9:1, which is also very sensible.

 

:lol:

Yeah.. but for those bloody markets!

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It is my plan to do so in the future using GoldMoney. I can’t at the moment because I haven’t swapped any silver to gold yet (I don’t have any gold at GM)

 

For now, I will stick to buying silver. I have aquired some new funds and will be able to average in throughout the year

 

I think things will get a lot more volatile in the future and allow me to swing trade between the metals.

 

GM has platinum too.

Its a good plan which I think a few are pursuing. If there is chaos and confusion in the market this trade could be very lucrative without the need to commit further capital.

 

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