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Wow, that's one hell of a call...

 

Assuming that the price of both gold and silver will rise as the gsr drops, silver would be trading at $20/oz if gold only rose to $1,000/oz. Should gold break through the thousand mark and spike to $1,250/oz say, silver would have to be trading at $25/oz for a gsr of 50. Sorry to wee on anyone's parade here, but how likely is that?

 

Would have to be one hell of an inflation scare for that to happen. Can't see it myself barring any black swans of course...

 

If anything, the Japanese Yen is starting to look promising, only question is, what's a good entry point in terms of USD/JPY? Suggestions kindly received...

I swapped gold to silver nearish the top and bought on the last dips. On the trend down, even when the ratio looked to be reversing, I stuck to my guns convinced that we are in an "inflation mode" at the moment. 50 might be a big call, but the reason I think we might see it is the inflation trade could develop into a full on inflation scare. If that happened, a brief frenzy of buying could easily see the ratio go near 50. I imagine the dollar would go quite low... perhaps to 70 and the Dow perhaps through 10000... before we get the deflationary whiplash in the markets. Lots of ifs and maybes, but hey, if you buy silver when the ratio is high, what do you have to lose?

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Whoa there!

 

I've been in and out of silver for a number of years now and one pattern I've learnt to recognise more than any other probably is the blow off phase in PMs. Don't forget, silver makes most of it's gains right at the end of a trend, once gold runs out of steam i.e. when it is deemed too expensive so they opt for silver instead...

 

Could always be different this time, but I doubt it though. Still, good luck to all those that are brave enough to go long at this stage...

Silver is hardly looking over extended against gold. Check these one year charts;

 

sc-5.png

 

sc-1-1.png

 

 

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Silver is hardly looking over extended against gold. Check these one year charts;

 

May be silver has the potential to go slightly higher. $16? $18.50 even? Who knows for sure?

 

However, looking at it from an intermediate term perspective, the downside to me at least, easily outweighs the potential upside at this stage.

 

Perhaps it might be wiser to keep an eye on the equities markets rather than the price of gold when it comes to trading silver atm? Seems to have been an even stronger correlation between the two than anywhere else of late.

 

Anyway, as I said above, the best of success to you all. I love silver, she's been very kind to me and I hope she does the same for all those that take an interest in her...

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...

However, looking at it from an intermediate term perspective, the downside to me at least, easily outweighs the potential upside at this stage.

...

How low could it go?

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...or how high?

 

Your guess is as good as mine...

 

It's just not for me atm, so in the words of Theo Paphitis: I'm outta! :D

My guess at this point is £7.50 low and £13.50 high for the year.

 

13% downside, 57% upside

 

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Around 1.25 - 1.35

 

Um, that's interesting as your target for Cable concurs exactly with mine, although we obviously differ on whether silver will hold up this time against the USD...

 

Out of further curiosity, do you envisage equities and the Euro following the same direction as Sterling? Also, how d'you see the US yield curve developing i.e. steepening or flattening in this instance?

 

Don't worry, I'm not trying to trip you up or anything sinister, it's just nice to be able to compare notes with someone that has thought things through thoroughly... :)

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Um, that's interesting as your target for Cable concurs exactly with mine, although we obviously differ on whether silver will hold up this time against the USD...

 

Out of further curiosity, do you envisage equities and the Euro following the same direction as Sterling? Also, how d'you see the US yield curve developing i.e. steepening or flattening in this instance?

 

Don't worry, I'm not trying to trip you up or anything sinister, it's just nice to be able to compare notes with someone that has thought things through thoroughly... :)

 

These are my best guesses.

 

Stock Markets – Depends on QE. The stock markets will keep going up for as long as QE lasts. Institutional investors are selling their Gilts/Bonds to Central Banks leaving them with cash to buy stocks, commodities and more Gilts/Bonds. I don’t expect the BofE to extend their gilt purchases this week; instead I think they will focus the next £25bn entirely on commercial paper/bonds. This could lead to a short sharp correction in the markets and allow a nice entry point for some extra silver. GBP could also strengthen a touch at the same time maybe 1.75 vs USD.

 

Euro – No idea. I’m not watching Euro very closely at the moment.

 

US Bonds – Prices will be down a bit at the end of the year. We might get to the stage where banks provide the most of the motive force for QE

 

Bank borrows currency from central bank using crappy collateral and lends money to a new investment vehicle. Investment vehicle buys Bonds and rakes in the coupon payments. Everyone involved is delighted and gets a huge bonus. Taxpayer pays.

 

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These are my best guesses.

 

Stock Markets – Depends on QE. The stock markets will keep going up for as long as QE lasts. Institutional investors are selling their Gilts/Bonds to Central Banks leaving them with cash to buy stocks, commodities and more Gilts/Bonds. I don’t expect the BofE to extend their gilt purchases this week; instead I think they will focus the next £25bn entirely on commercial paper/bonds. This could lead to a short sharp correction in the markets and allow a nice entry point for some extra silver. GBP could also strengthen a touch at the same time maybe 1.75 vs USD.

 

Euro – No idea. I’m not watching Euro very closely at the moment.

 

US Bonds – Prices will be down a bit at the end of the year. We might get to the stage where banks provide the most of the motive force for QE

 

Bank borrows currency from central bank using crappy collateral and lends money to a new investment vehicle. Investment vehicle buys Bonds and rakes in the coupon payments. Everyone involved is delighted and gets a huge bonus. Taxpayer pays.

 

Thanks ziknik, insightful analysis, much appreciated...

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+1

 

I've got some $ at Goldmoney and am trying to figure $ or G or S...

If you are already loaded up, why buy on the rise?

 

Perhaps you feel US dollars are about to self-destruct. If so, move quickly to a deflationist forum and read until you value the dollar. :lol:

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If you are already loaded up, why buy on the rise?

 

Perhaps you feel US dollars are about to self-destruct. If so, move quickly to a deflationist forum and read until you value the dollar. :lol:

 

Cos if G (& maybe S) are on the general up - which I'm rather investing on - at some point (even though there will obviously be corrections) they won't come back down again below a certain point. And I wouldn't rule out seriously volatile moves... THE COMING SILVER ACCIDENT

 

My expectations of a short-term strengthening $ are in doubt - when would you call it a day in your wait for a lower gold (or silver) price against the $? Or, are you all in and only plan to do the G to S ratio swap thing?

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My advice is don't panic buy and I don't mean that in a patronising fashion, I just mean play the market a little more if you already have a reasonable position. Personally I would make my move in the next 6-8 weeks.

 

Cos if G (& maybe S) are on the general up - which I'm rather investing on - at some point (even though there will obviously be corrections) they won't come back down again below a certain point. And I wouldn't rule out seriously volatile moves... THE COMING SILVER ACCIDENT

 

My expectations of a short-term strengthening $ are in doubt - when would you call it a day in your wait for a lower gold (or silver) price against the $? Or, are you all in and only plan to do the G to S ratio swap thing?

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My advice is don't panic buy and I don't mean that in a patronising fashion, I just mean play the market a little more if you already have a reasonable position. Personally I would make my move in the next 6-8 weeks.

+1

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My advice is don't panic buy and I don't mean that in a patronising fashion, I just mean play the market a little more if you already have a reasonable position. Personally I would make my move in the next 6-8 weeks.

Yes, that's the sort of time frame I'm looking at - though I've added another 4 weeks on a few times already and am becoming a little wary of lack of action. (Were @900 and @12.50 the lows?)

 

Still umming and arring between G & S though...

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Cos if G (& maybe S) are on the general up - which I'm rather investing on - at some point (even though there will obviously be corrections) they won't come back down again below a certain point. And I wouldn't rule out seriously volatile moves... THE COMING SILVER ACCIDENT

 

My expectations of a short-term strengthening $ are in doubt - when would you call it a day in your wait for a lower gold (or silver) price against the $? Or, are you all in and only plan to do the G to S ratio swap thing?

Well, to start with I think most here are pretty well loaded up on gold and silver and accordingly can "afford" to wait for possible dips. Even on the chance they do not come back down [more likely with gold than silver imo] then is there really much harm done given you are already heavily invested. But being heavily invested, any reserves you have would want to be kept aside for possible rock bottom prices. I think we could see this again especially with silver.. it would not take much, the financial markets get overheated, a wheel falls off in the the real economy, and then the idiot market runs for the door on the deflation trade.

 

My main trading position is in silver at the moment. I do not have a huge position in dollars... I consider it a speculative trade and personally think it will pay of on a subsequent deflation trade which may come after the summer. I am also thinking of buying Yen as another reserve currency... check out silver against the Yen, the move has been huge; from 850 to near 1400 in six months..... silver could easily go to 1600, 1800. Silver could quite possibly rocket up here with everything else and I would seriously think about swapping silver for both gold and the Yen at the top... if we get one.

 

The ballast to these trades is accumulated ounces of gold, where I consider profits to be taken.

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Yes, that's the sort of time frame I'm looking at - though I've added another 4 weeks on a few times already and am becoming a little wary of lack of action. (Were @900 and @12.50 the lows?)

 

Still umming and arring between G & S though...

If you want to speculate with future trades, buy silver. If you want to put your money into a safe haven and save, buy gold.

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Well, I'm happy to say I took possession of my first Oz of physical silver today when I was given a commemorative coin. Nice. Shiny. I'll still keep the vast bulk of what I own in Bullionvault though.

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Well, I'm happy to say I took possession of my first Oz of physical silver today when I was given a commemorative coin. Nice. Shiny. I'll still keep the vast bulk of what I own in Bullionvault though.

Have BV started selling Silver yet? I can't see it :unsure:

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Have BV started selling Silver yet? I can't see it :unsure:

 

I have noted that subtle modifications to BV's user interfaces have been implemented over the last week:

 

The price chart now shows spot silver and spot gold.

The Order Panel (Buy/Sell/Wizard) now shows "Gold: Zurich, Gold: London, Gold: New York", stating the metal rather than assuming gold.

 

In the absence of announcements from BV, the modifications suggest progression towards that goal without an indication of timescale.

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I have noted that subtle modifications to BV's user interfaces have been implemented over the last week:

 

The price chart now shows spot silver and spot gold.

The Order Panel (Buy/Sell/Wizard) now shows "Gold: Zurich, Gold: London, Gold: New York", stating the metal rather than assuming gold.

 

In the absence of announcements from BV, the modifications suggest progression towards that goal without an indication of timescale.

Just had a look. Nice to see spot silver on the chart.

 

Months back somebody mentioned September as a possible start month.

 

They have a new photo on the site, I suppose when they got the Queen's award:

team.jpg

 

 

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