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Silver Market Update

 

Is silver becoming a bearmarket, or is a bottom pattern completing that will lead to a major new uptrend soon? That is the big conundrum facing investors and speculators in the sector and in this update it will become apparent that the situation must resolve itself with a decisive move soon, one way or the other.

 

http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-market-update-3

what is your point halight? you quote but don't add your own comment.

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what is your point halight? you quote but don't add your own comment.

 

 

I do comment sometimes. But I am not expert and no forecaster.

 

Now this is just a feeling. Its not really based on any data but i feel $60 might be a top and i do not think we will see that price for another two years or so.

 

Silver today is not really a money metal. Today it gets used up. We now make things out of it. So this puts a limit on the price that people are willing to pay.

Gold on the other hand is still seen as a store of wealth.

 

Silver today is used in many items. The end user can only afford to pay a top price for an item. There is a price were people do say no. I can not afford to buy it. This is what will limit the price of silver in my view.

 

After saying all of that. There is a limit on the amount of silver we have in the world. We are now using more and more of it. So if we go forward 10-20 years i can see a world were we are using even more silver in items than we use now. This extra use in years too come will keep the price high. And may even push it pasted $100 at some point. But i do not see that 100 dollar point any time soon.

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I do comment sometimes. But I am not expert and no forecaster.

 

Now this is just a feeling. Its not really based on any data but i feel $60 might be a top and i do not think we will see that price for another two years or so.

 

Silver today is not really a money metal. Today it gets used up. We now make things out of it. So this puts a limit on the price that people are willing to pay.

Gold on the other hand is still seen as a store of wealth.

 

Silver today is used in many items. The end user can only afford to pay a top price for an item. There is a price were people do say no. I can not afford to buy it. This is what will limit the price of silver in my view.

 

After saying all of that. There is a limit on the amount of silver we have in the world. We are now using more and more of it. So if we go forward 10-20 years i can see a world were we are using even more silver in items than we use now. This extra use in years too come will keep the price high. And may even push it pasted $100 at some point. But i do not see that 100 dollar point any time soon.

 

 

P.S,

 

I have the same view on the price of copper. Short term the price will be capped. But i can see us useing more and more copper each year. So i feel a investment in the long term price of copper would be good.

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I do comment sometimes. But I am not expert and no forecaster.

 

Now this is just a feeling. Its not really based on any data but i feel $60 might be a top and i do not think we will see that price for another two years or so.

 

Silver today is not really a money metal. Today it gets used up. We now make things out of it. So this puts a limit on the price that people are willing to pay.

Gold on the other hand is still seen as a store of wealth.

 

Silver today is used in many items. The end user can only afford to pay a top price for an item. There is a price were people do say no. I can not afford to buy it. This is what will limit the price of silver in my view.

 

After saying all of that. There is a limit on the amount of silver we have in the world. We are now using more and more of it. So if we go forward 10-20 years i can see a world were we are using even more silver in items than we use now. This extra use in years too come will keep the price high. And may even push it pasted $100 at some point. But i do not see that 100 dollar point any time soon.

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I do comment sometimes. But I am not expert and no forecaster.

 

Now this is just a feeling. Its not really based on any data but i feel $60 might be a top and i do not think we will see that price for another two years or so.

 

Silver today is not really a money metal. Today it gets used up. We now make things out of it. So this puts a limit on the price that people are willing to pay.

Gold on the other hand is still seen as a store of wealth.

 

Silver today is used in many items. The end user can only afford to pay a top price for an item. There is a price were people do say no. I can not afford to buy it. This is what will limit the price of silver in my view.

 

After saying all of that. There is a limit on the amount of silver we have in the world. We are now using more and more of it. So if we go forward 10-20 years i can see a world were we are using even more silver in items than we use now. This extra use in years too come will keep the price high. And may even push it pasted $100 at some point. But i do not see that 100 dollar point any time soon.

i hear the argument with silver. i think is debatable whether or not it is a monetary asset. people obviously keep changing their minds about it, gold too, but to a lesser extent. on balance more people seem to be forming the conclusion that it is.

 

if you can see silver reaching $60 in two years then that ought to be a very tempting speculation! the past is history and silver today is $30.$60 in two years would make for an exceptional return would it not?

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i hear the argument with silver. i think is debatable whether or not it is a monetary asset. people obviously keep changing their minds about it, gold too, but to a lesser extent. on balance more people seem to be forming the conclusion that it is.

 

if you can see silver reaching $60 in two years then that ought to be a very tempting speculation! the past is history and silver today is $30.$60 in two years would make for an exceptional return would it not?

 

 

Yes it would be a great return.

But I am banking on a few things. One is yet more money printing. Gold going back up (which will pull silver up with it) And new tech, Both china and India are getting richer. There people wont the same things as we have in the west. More nice shiny new things will be to be made.

 

I may well be way out on my top price and also the timing.

I do no own any silver ETFs for any silver bullion with bullion vault or Gold money. So it dose not really bother me about my timing really.

I do buy Silver bullion coins.

(I own Gold within bullion vault)

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bought more kinross gold today. average price is now 9.10

 

I have been looking at Kinross recently. I have a potential buy in price @850, but as they are nearing their 2005 low (@639) I am going to watch it carefully in case it breaks down below 850. I will be looking to sell @~1600 in about 18 months time. Do you have a sell target for Kinross?

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I have been looking at Kinross recently. I have a potential buy in price @850, but as they are nearing their 2005 low (@639) I am going to watch it carefully in case it breaks down below 850. I will be looking to sell @~1600 in about 18 months time. Do you have a sell target for Kinross?

I am not regarding chart action but purely the earnings profile over last 4 years.based on my calculations, something is very odd about kgc because my pricings are

 

18.97 is buy target - so I would have been under water if I'd been buying since last year.

26.72 is fair value

34.46 sell

 

My model is avery at odds with current market price. Most stocks miners are about fair valued right now according to my maths. The only cheap things are kgc, ssri, pass and svm which I have acquired alarming quantities of over last month or so. Please see post above for details.

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Sorry, I had read your 1st post on this page where you had detailed that information, and then forgot about it! Yours numbers are interesting, have you posted a description of your model anywhere?

 

i am no dr.bubb i know, but we're all here to share our experiences, regardless of our level of sophistication and i hope my attempts here are not causing too many sniggers

 

As Ziknew says, I wish I had a model - so no sniggers from me.

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I am not regarding chart action but purely the earnings profile over last 4 years.based on my calculations, something is very odd about kgc because my pricings are

 

18.97 is buy target - so I would have been under water if I'd been buying since last year.

26.72 is fair value

34.46 sell

 

My model is avery at odds with current market price. Most stocks miners are about fair valued right now according to my maths. The only cheap things are kgc, ssri, pass and svm which I have acquired alarming quantities of over last month or so. Please see post above for details.

 

Peppa, you're not in any way related to Percy are you?

 

 

ppig.gifPercy.png

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basing.png

 

 

Volatile silver looking like it's found its base here. A floor of 30 for silver and 1650 for gold for a bit will serve as a solid platform for the next leg up later in the year....though I think that leg up will be long and prolonged like the previous one after the previous collapse. Next spike to 100 odd? 2014?

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Next spike to 100 odd? 2014?

 

I projected the long term trend line to the end of 2014. I did this for both GDP and the USD and came up with the following figures:

 

Currency    Highest price	Long term average price	        Increase (%)	Projected price 2014		Projected peak 2014
									Jan 2014	Dec 2014	Jan 2014	Dec 2014

GBP     	30.00 		13.57				121		26.79		31.00		59.20		68.51
USD		49.60 		22.64				119		37.88		43.41		82.85		95.06

 

Column explanation:

  • The Highest price is the highest price reached at the peak date of 25/04/2011;
  • The Long term average price is the lower trend line price on the same day as the given highest price;
  • The Increase is the % difference between the Highest price and the Long term average price;
  • The Projected price 2014 is the projected long term average price based on the lower long term trend line;
  • The Projected peak 2014 is the Projected price 2014 multiplied by the % Increase.

 

Assumptions are:

 

1) There will be no change in the rate of change;

2) A spike of the same size that occurred 25th April 2011 will happen in 2014.

 

I have only calculated the projected peak for January and December, the other months would be somewhere between the Jan 2014 projected peak value and the Dec 2014 projected peak value.

 

In summary, I am currently expecting a price range of $82.85 to $95.06 (£59.20 to £68.51 assuming the fx rate stays the same). If the spike is smaller or does not happen, then I don't think we will see anything like $80-100.

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basing.png

 

 

Volatile silver looking like it's found its base here. A floor of 30 for silver and 1650 for gold for a bit will serve as a solid platform for the next leg up later in the year....though I think that leg up will be long and prolonged like the previous one after the previous collapse. Next spike to 100 odd? 2014?

 

 

How do you think the Euro is likely to do? Since the start of 2011 Silver has been becoming more closely correlated to the Euro;

 

SLV and FXE

SilverEurocorrelation.png

 

 

The Swiss pegged their Franc to the Euro on 6th September 2011 and if you look from then on the correlation has tightened.

 

 

Here's another chart showing SLV in black with it's correlation to FXE in the box below.

 

SLVFXEcorrelation.png

 

The correlation between the two is currently at 88%.

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How do you think the Euro is likely to do? Since the start of 2011 Silver has been becoming more closely correlated to the Euro;

The correlation is no doubt due to them both moving contrary to the dollar. The 'risk on' trade will see both strengthen. But there are other factors that should see silver strengthen more in the aggregate, and then retain that strength. the Euro may just remain volatile and then weaken in the aggregate against the dollar [as the dollar strengthens due to deflation] and doubly weaken against silver. Taking gold as a more steady less volatile measure, the Euro/ Gold chart shows the price increases in sudden steps compared to the more steady rise of Dollar/ Gold. Wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of this at some point where precious metal prices suddenly increase in the more peripheral currencies. Aussie/ Gold [silver] is also a good example of this.

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The Swiss pegged their Franc to the Euro on 6th September 2011 and if you look from then on the correlation has tightened.

 

Nice chart.

 

Silver is now coming to the conclusion of a wedge pattern that has been building for the best part of a year. For the past year three has been strong buying support at around the 31 level and for the last week in particular at the 30.70 dollars level. On the other side there is a descending trendline which started from the end of April 2011 top, has been tested numerous times in the past couple of months and has a false break in February this year. We should have a resolution this week and I expect a big move (upwards) soon. 30.70 has proved to be a good place to buy with a take profit at 31 in what has become an extremely slow moving market.

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30.70 has proved to be a good place to buy with a take profit at 31 in what has become an extremely slow moving market.

 

Maybe I have misunderstood you. Are you taking a profit on the $31 -> $30.70 difference ($0.30 minus commissions)? Should I assume an ETF in that case? That to me would not be worth the risk of missing a large run up, but I would be interested in hearing other styles of trading.

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Maybe I have misunderstood you. Are you taking a profit on the $31 -> $30.70 difference ($0.30 minus commissions)? Should I assume an ETF in that case? That to me would not be worth the risk of missing a large run up, but I would be interested in hearing other styles of trading.

 

Yes that is right. It is not an ideal setup and I normally like to look for much bigger gains but the price action has become so slow that there is little else that can be done. Here is an hourly chart for the past ten days or so and you will see what I mean. I trade XAGUSD which is a direct link to spot price.

 

Edit: that has come up smaller than I expected. Price action has been similar for a couple of days before this chart starts as well.

Edit 2: Maybe 31.08 or 31.1 would be a better take profit in future. Boring charts.

post-6456-0-40101000-1335863394_thumb.gif

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Yes that is right. It is not an ideal setup and I normally like to look for much bigger gains but the price action has become so slow that there is little else that can be done.

 

Thanks for the reply, it gives me something to consider for the future. I guess if you have enough experience, confidence and the time to keep an eye on the charts regularly then a small profit can be made.

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