Jump to content

SILVER


Recommended Posts

If Silver Goes Down All Hell Will Break Loose In The Physical Market: Silver Investment Update [Video]

 

http://www.silverseek.com/article/if-silver-goes-down-all-hell-will-break-loose-physical-market-silver-investment-update-video

 

Video and story at link

 

===============

 

There simply isn't enough physical silver to deal with the demand of a fiat currency crisis. As the paper silver market pushes prices down, all hell will break loose in the physical market.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 6.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

I was considering as a last hurrah, now that I have no cash left, to do a gold to silver swap. However, both seem to be going down in tandem and so there is no point. Anything over 60 to 1 is well worth throwing in my last ounce of gold for silver.

 

I would prefer to sell gold and silver bullion and keep buying miners but it is nor practical when the markets are behaving such that in the time it takes to get settlement, we might have hit bottom and made a fantastic rally which would be a real bummer. Besides, violent movements in markets portend severe stress and it is not safe to have money and or precious goods in transit at such times. Counter party risks and all that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was considering as a last hurrah, now that I have no cash left, to do a gold to silver swap. However, both seem to be going down in tandem and so there is no point. Anything over 60 to 1 is well worth throwing in my last ounce of gold for silver.

 

Based on the SLV : GLD ratio the trajectory is down, so whilst they're both going down, silver is going down faster than gold. Since the silver top in April 2011 Gold has outperformed Silver.

 

SLV/GLD 2 year

SLVGLDratio.png

 

 

The correlation between SLV and FXE (The Euro ETF), with GLD also shown;

gldslvfxe.png

 

 

The Euro is very strongly correlated to Silver at the moment, what are your thoughts on the Euro Peppa?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Based on the SLV : GLD ratio the trajectory is down, so whilst they're both going down, silver is going down faster than gold. Since the silver top in April 2011 Gold has outperformed Silver.

Every cloud has a silver lining. The ratio was due to bounce back. Silver remained surprisingly resilient against gold for quite some time, and if it goes still lower will swap my meagre holding of gold to silver.... that would be me pretty much 'all in' silver. :o

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Based on the SLV : GLD ratio the trajectory is down, so whilst they're both going down, silver is going down faster than gold. Since the silver top in April 2011 Gold has outperformed Silver.

 

SLV/GLD 2 year

SLVGLDratio.png

 

 

The correlation between SLV and FXE (The Euro ETF), with GLD also shown;

gldslvfxe.png

 

 

The Euro is very strongly correlated to Silver at the moment, what are your thoughts on the Euro Peppa?

I have no thoughts on the euro.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have 26.50, 26.32, your 23/24 and then 21. Why do you think the 26's will be taken out, or do you not consider them support?

 

Yeah, i think 26 should be reasonable support. Maybe 23 does (or doesnt) come from a panic low. I see 23-area as the bottom of a nice downward channel.

 

Maybe that is a bit too far, 25 as 50% retracement should also be a decent support. Maybe I wont be greedy and will look for 25-26 area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every cloud has a silver lining. The ratio was due to bounce back. Silver remained surprisingly resilient against gold for quite some time, and if it goes still lower will swap my meagre holding of gold to silver.... that would be me pretty much 'all in' silver. :o

 

Hi do you still have positions in AGQ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi do you still have positions in AGQ?

That could be smart here, or maybe options on AGQ, like the UGL Bull spreads I have bought

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi do you still have positions in AGQ?

Yes, very heavy in AGQ. Was lucky enough to buy at 40 on the dip, and then bought again at around 50.. on the current decline. Don't mind to much if it bumps around a bit here as think silver should bounce back nicely. Will look to off-load most of it on the next silver spike. Could be a wait of a year or two.... consolidation, slow build up, then spike.

 

 

aaaa.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I started averaging in (small amounts) on Tuesday. Wish I knew when it would stop falling. There seems to be a lot of bearish sentiment floating round which is good, but gets me thinking I should be waiting until silver nudges below $27 before buying in bulk.

 

I wish I understood options, so I'm going to have to give the calls and puts game a miss. Can you recommend any good books on options for lower intelligence people like me DrBubb.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wish I understood options, so I'm going to have to give the calls and puts game a miss. Can you recommend any good books on options for lower intelligence people like me DrBubb.

 

I have has the task of learning about options on my list for several months now, your post finally spurred me onto doing something about it. I ordered the book Options for the Beginner and Beyond: Unlock the Opportunities and Minimize the Risks as it seems to have gotten some very positive reviews. I wonder how long it will sit with my other books before I get around to reading it. :unsure:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted when silver was at $36.4

 

I think this may be the end of the cyclical bull market in silver.

...............................

...............................

...............................

...............................

Only time will tell.

 

I'm not talked about this view much, since it doesn't sit too easily in my mind and it's not that easy to reconcile with my position that Gold remains in a bull market (although arguably that may be about to be tested).

 

However, we have seen numerous examples over the last year of just how easy it is for silver to get cut down. Compared to other metals priced by ounce it is very cheap and there are regularly large amounts of silver derivatives traded (futures, options, ETFs etc), although the market is much smaller than gold.

 

So yes it is a relatively cheap relative of gold and that makes it attractive and the silver market is relatively small, however although the size of the silver market is an attractive reason to believe that investing in silver longer term could be a sound investment the paradox here may be that this makes it silver's biggest weakness, it's easily manipulated. This may prevent the very substantial potential gains of the type you often hear trumpeted by those who don't have a deep knowledge of markets (and certainly I'm no expert). It's plain to see what has happened to the silver price when large numbers of sell orders hit the market, it has been summarily crushed on several occasions, whereas with gold although it has also taken a hit, the underlying strength is clear from the longer term charts.

 

Pull up a silver chart and it looks like a Samurai warrior has been using it for target practice;

 

Silversamurai.pngSam.png

Samurai Spirit 7 by Artgerm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted when silver was at $36.4

 

 

 

I'm not talked about this view much, since it doesn't sit too easily in my mind and it's not that easy to reconcile with my position that Gold remains in a bull market (although arguably that may be about to be tested).

 

However, we have seen numerous examples over the last year of just how easy it is for silver to get cut down. Compared to other metals priced by ounce it is very cheap and there are regularly large amounts of silver derivatives traded (futures, options, ETFs etc), although the market is much smaller than gold.

 

So yes it is a relatively cheap relative of gold and that makes it attractive and the silver market is relatively small, however although the size of the silver market is an attractive reason to believe that investing in silver longer term could be a sound investment the paradox here may be that this makes it silver's biggest weakness, it's easily manipulated. This may prevent the very substantial potential gains of the type you often hear trumpeted by those who don't have a deep knowledge of markets (and certainly I'm no expert). It's plain to see what has happened to the silver price when large numbers of sell orders hit the market, it has been summarily crushed on several occasions, whereas with gold although it has also taken a hit, the underlying strength is clear from the longer term charts.

 

Pull up a silver chart and it looks like a Samurai warrior has been using it for target practice;

 

Silversamurai.png

 

 

Or silver is just more volatile... both to the upside and the downside. And then in the long term aggregate it should just reflect the appreciation of gold; 20% year on year.

 

The long term charts show the correlation so far. These charts only cover 3 yeras. What would be more interesting is a long termer term chart [say from 2000] overlapping both silver and gold on the logarithmic. The annual 20% appreciation of both would then be more clearly seen.... with also the more massive volatility in silver, which is why I think it makes sense to trade silver as a hedge against long gold.... can be charted here [can not print for some reason]: http://goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html

 

A moving average somewhere between the 50 and 200 week would be telling.

 

ltsil.png

 

ltgol.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have has the task of learning about options on my list for several months now, your post finally spurred me onto doing something about it. I ordered the book Options for the Beginner and Beyond: Unlock the Opportunities and Minimize the Risks as it seems to have gotten some very positive reviews. I wonder how long it will sit with my other books before I get around to reading it. :unsure:

 

Just ordered this too, thanks for the suggestion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

tumbleweed_zps8e7b7d0d.png

Tumbleweed here?

 

That's good - that's bullisg, I reckon

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tumbleweed here?

 

That's good - that's bullish, I reckon

 

 

Yeah I post it when there have been a few days of non posting, last time it was 10 days before the low.

 

tumbleweed_zps8e7b7d0d.png

 

 

Then for gold;

 

Boring day today for POG. Forget the rockets, it needs one of these.

tumbleweed.jpg

 

The tumbleweed indicator.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah I post it when there have been a few days of non posting, last time it was 10 days before the low.

Then for gold;

The tumbleweed indicator.

Here's another good indicator:

 

Al Korelin:

MP3 : mms://media.kitco.com/weeklyreport/Korelin20120524.mp3

Big Al and Trader Rog say that it's "Sideline Time" - by Al Korelin, May 24, 2012

www.kereport.com

 

Al is ALWAYS bullish on Gold, so for him to say, "It sideline time,"

it may be a fairly rare BUY signal.

 

The unwillingness of the old Gold Cult to post anything here.

(are they embarrassed about having been too bullish, perhaps?)

Is another BUY sigal, I reckon.

 

The recent "near death experience" (that I spoke about in my Diary) have have frightened

some of the now shell-shocked old Gold bulls, and they may miss out on the early part

of the rally, if we are about to see one.

 

akihito.jpg

 

Al said: "There's uncertainty out there..."

There's always been uncertainty, and the time to be talking of it was near $1900!

(as some of us were here.)

 

Roger's comments make more sense than Al's

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...