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This last week has absolutely crushed the bulls and turned the medium trend down.

Silver been relentlessly hammered since that QE3.5 announcement and reversal last Thursday.

 

6 heavy losing sessions in a row losing over 10%, quite possibly that it could be extended to a 7th session. Getting painful.

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Possible LOW in place

SLV / Silver etf ... Two year chart : 5years : 6months : 10days : Latest

Jan. 2013:

slvo.gif

 

On Friday, SLV dipped below the Uptrend line, but then clawed its way back above it.

 

It looks like a classic V bottom to me, including the common "scary" opening gap down

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Review of Silver and Gold related etfs

 

AGQ / 2x Silver ... update : 6mos

agq.gif

 

AGQ could easily fall a bit further, like to the summer "breakout point" of $40.

 

USLV / 3x Silver ... 2 years : 6mos

uslv.gif

 

Funnily enough, USLV (unlike AGQ) has touched the Uptrend line.

 

SLV / Silver etf ... 3 years : 6mos

slv.gif

 

SLV has already touched the uptrend line a few days ago near $28.60.

 

GLD / Gold etf ... 12mos : 6mos

gld12mo.gif

 

The selling is running out of steam. Look closely. The very last low was on LIGHT volume.

The selling may be done. And if Gold rises, so should Silver, and the silver etfs.

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The selling is running out of steam. Look closely. The very last low was on LIGHT volume.

The selling may be done. And if Gold rises, so should Silver, and the silver etfs.

 

I certainly hope so, the recent activity in AGQ has been brutal. It is certainly not for the faint-hearted. The only positive was that I was on vacation for a lot of it, so wasn't paying attention to the blood bath every day.

 

Right now, my original plan to exit my position in mid-Feb is pretty much in tatters. I was expecting the well-established seasonality in the PM markets to be the main driver. This doesn't seem to be the case. However, this recent activity doesn't affect my belief in the long term fundamentals, and I will begin buying again this week.

 

Longer term, my big worry is now that I will need these funds later this year as a down-payment for a house. I have a feeling I will miss out on the main action in the next couple of years.

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I certainly hope so, the recent activity in AGQ has been brutal. It is certainly not for the faint-hearted. The only positive was that I was on vacation for a lot of it, so wasn't paying attention to the blood bath every day.

 

Right now, my original plan to exit my position in mid-Feb is pretty much in tatters. I was expecting the well-established seasonality in the PM markets to be the main driver. This doesn't seem to be the case. However, this recent activity doesn't affect my belief in the long term fundamentals, and I will begin buying again this week.

 

Longer term, my big worry is now that I will need these funds later this year as a down-payment for a house. I have a feeling I will miss out on the main action in the next couple of years.

 

You bought near the bottom of the consolidating phase, so there was always a good chance, given the volatility, that the price would continue to consolidate in the short term. It is in the medium/ long term that confidence is more well-placed towards an increase in the price [assuming silver/ gold is in a bull market]. When silver strengthens again, the short term paper loss will be eaten up very quickly. Stick with it.

 

Check out the 200 MWA for silver; above 26.

 

ki.png

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You bought near the bottom of the consolidating phase, so there was always a good chance, given the volatility, that the price would continue to consolidate in the short term. It is in the medium/ long term that confidence is more well-placed towards an increase in the price [assuming silver/ gold is in a bull market]. When silver strengthens again, the short term paper loss will be eaten up very quickly. Stick with it.

 

Yeah, i will. My long term physical (Goldmoney) strategy is unchanged. It's just my shorter term AGQ plans which will need to evolve. Nice graph by the way, puts things into perspective well.

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U.S. Mint Silver Coins Run Out as Buying at 5-Year High

Bloomberg - 5 Hours ago

The U.S. Mint sold out of 2013 American Eagle silver coins at a time when investors bought the most metal in five years through the biggest exchange-traded product. The mint’s sales are “temporarily”

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High Margin Requirements Are Killing The Silver Market

Zero Hedge - 2 Hours ago

By EconMatters The CME raising margins for Silver Futures to such a degree that relative to market price, futures multiplier, and physical demand by consumers is just too high has basically killed

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This chart showing the relation between silver's short term volatility and its strengthening over the long term [the 200 MDA] should lead to the arguably obvious conclusion; precious metals will not act as 'inflation hedges' - with simply explosive moves up in price - but rather they will steadily appreciate in the aggregate being not simply [hyper] inflation hedges but currency hedges. Some have been predicting this quite unmysterious move in price for years.

 

 

rel.png

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