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SOLD half the remaining SLV shares acquired on the Low of the year thru an Option exercise

Still have a large net position, thru shares and $15 and $15.50 calls

This is money management. I am thinking it may be better to realize big cash than just sell Calls here

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  • 2 weeks later...
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Another way to play Silver?

THE GAP to SLV become so large, that Fresnillo shares looked irresistable

FRES.L vs- SLV/ Silver ... 2yr :

ndbA5Tr.gif

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  • 1 month later...

MIND the CYCLE ... in SILVER

SLV is the etf for Silver (which closed at $16.46) / $15.53 = 106% -> about $1.00 difference

2cNEOWj.gif

Anyone see a cycle here? (haha)

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MIND THE GAPS !

I will show you one of my favorite gaps right now - and then explain it...

First, I need to SET THE TABLE...

As you might expect, there is a high degree of correlation between GLD (gold), & TLT (bonds). And even more with LTPZ (Tip Bonds).  It is clear in this chart

GLD -vs: TLT, LTPZ ... update : $140, -5.00, -3.65%, vs: $140 - 0.0%, $100 - 0.0%

VBU3QjR.jpg

Notice that... on Friday, there was a BIG DROP (-3.65%) in GOLD, but not in TLT or LTPZ. 

this is unusual. and the GAP you see there may be telling us something important.  The drop in GLD may be temporary, &/or bond prices maybe be set to drop

Q: Perhaps bond prices are finalizing their rise which will lead to a top that won't be revisited for some time to come

Sure it could go either way... or maybe the GAP will not fade.

Let me tell you how I will play this "narrowing", ie my expectation that the Ratio of GLD-to-LTPZ will narrow

Q: Will you go long GLD short LTPZ outright or via options?

Valid ideas, (though LTPZ is much less liquid than GLD or TLT.)  But I will do something else...

SILVER!  Or actually, SLV, which is the etf for Silver.  I have added it to the chart / update: SLV & GLD, vs: TLT & LTPZ

ds79E3w.gif

In fact, on Friday near the NY close, I bought $15 Calls on SLV: End-Mar. expiry at $0,77, and Mid-April at $0.91.

These are in-the-money Calls with a strike price below the Friday close of $15.53

Previously, back in mid-Dec., : I bought SLV Jan. $15.50 Calls at $0.48
A few weeks later, in three trades, I sold them at an average of $1.59 - for a 231% gain
(This is recorded in Real-time comments on my 2020 Tips thread😞

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Gold & Silver still looking good, after last week's selloff

GOLD to SILVER ratio recently hit a Record High of 100x.  I still like silver

Supported by rising Bonds (TLT), and TIP Bonds (LTPZ)

GLD vs.: SLV, / TLT, & LTPZ ... from 10.May.2020 : $154.16, TLT:$154.67 / SLV:$16.09, LTPZ: $80.67

zftskUN.gif

SLV to-GLD ratio got down to just 10.20%. Bounce or rally may be underway

gyeRgCt.png

Gold -toSilver ratio: At 95.27x , which is still very high

EAwh1Wm.png

GLD -toTLT ratio : 99.67% / For many months, has been swinging a little either side of 100% Ratio

M7KpwF3.png

SLV -toLTPZ ratio: 20% : down to a Low below 20% - Note the Cycle

WBh8rkE.png

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ZEROING in on Silver...

SLV... 10yr-L: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: $16.18 -0.12 > 10.27% of GLD ($157.55 +0.06)

vwSce5y.gif

5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: $16.18

44oh4Fv.gif

10d / Last: $16.18 -0.12 > 10.27% of GLD ($157.55 +0.06)

HsikBl0.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/14/2020 at 7:26 AM, drbubb said:

The drop is Gold & Silver stocks friday was one of the sharpest falls I have ever seen

SIL vs GDX ... All Data -W:  D :

SIL, Silver Miners Etf : $18.61 -3.84 -17.10% vs YrH: $33.75: -44.9%
GDX, Gold Miners Etf: $19.00 -3.31 -14.84% vs YrH: $31.84: -40.3%
Gdxj, Jr Gold Miners : $22.17 -2.50 -10.13% vs YrH: $46.42: -52.2%
GLD, SPRD Gold Etf : 143.28 -4.51 - 3.05% vs YrH: 159.17: -10.0%
SLV, Silver Trust Etf : $13.69 -0.93 - 6.36%  vs YrH: $18.35: -25.4%
===
Notice the difference !

haha / Silver stocks now UP on the day! / 20.1359
    Change:+1.5259

Low of Day: $16.  We saw in minutes & hours, moves that sometime look years in the past

SIL-etc .... update

9MmpPH7.gif

==

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

EA5Y4Gd.png

Let's see if the Gold-toSilver ratio continues to contract

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  • 4 weeks later...

Gold still moving with Bonds.

SLV showed a big lag, & may be starting catch-up move. Watching the SOXX to SLV ratio

GLD vs: TLT, LTPZ ... update

FCMdM5d.gif

GLD vs SLV : fr. mid-march : reverse /  $159.78 / $13.92= r11.48 /

Gold vs Silver ($1700.9 / 14.94= Ratio: 113.86)

image.png

fr. mid-march : Reverse: vs.Favs /  $159.78 / $13.92

IORwZRQ.gif

SOXX to SLV ratio @ 16.06

aVUXzWz.png

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  • 5 weeks later...

Hmm.

Seems those calling for 30x or 15x ... should have said: 100X first

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  • 3 months later...

SILVER vs Silver shares

Junior Silver shares (like Aftermath & Defiance) run with "the fast boy" AGQ, 3x Bull etf on Silver

AAG.v & DEF.v vs. AGQ ($58.31) ... YTD: 2yr: 1yr: 10d/ AAG.v: C$0.88 (1.51% Agq), DEF.v: $0.61 (1.05% Agq),

y0ssH53.gif

Ratio: AAG.v (C$0.88) to AGQ ($58.31): AAG.v: 1.51%

Fx6UuM0.png

Ratio: DEF.v (C$0.61) to AGQ ($58.31): DEF.v: 1.05%

L42j81y.png

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  • 11 months later...

Silver BUY zone: $21.75-22.75, and low yesterday was $21.58! 

HBXAuuY.png

This call looks impressive so far, he expected "one more drop in Silver" into that Buy zone, and we may have seen that yesterday. 

I haven't heard this megaphone technique he uses at Sniper before:  

Excellent Interview !       

Francis Hunt: Silver Will be The Shooting Star   >

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  • 1 year later...

mjnvbvn.png

Important SILVER Low may be in place.  last: $19.36 / Low: $17.40 -that's +11.4%

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RANGE of Gold is impacted by Silver and Bonds - Silver "dances" around its ratio to Gold

update: GLD: $155.70, SLV: $18.09 (11.6%-r8.6), TLT: $105.27 ... AU/AG: $1670/19.70=

YD4Ms7c.gif

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LARRY WILLIAMS Charts - Show the Value of Trader Reports in confirming HIGHS and LOWS

"When the Commercials get Net LONG, you had better get Long Gold!"

#1: GOLD, History From ???, shows Commercial Hedgers behave at Gold Lows

xMHaYXm.png

#2: GOLD, from 2016.  "almost there" at Buy sign, based on Comm'l Holdings

"Greatest long position (for Commercials) since 2019"

Iypm7n0.png

#3: SILVER, from 2016 - we are already IN a Buying Window

eCljRJK.png

( Palisades Gold interview follows )

Larry Williams: Inflation Cycles have Topped for Now

SLV / Silver .... All: 5yr: 2yr: Ytd: 10d / $17.36, up xx%, from YrL, $16.19

pfm5dLO.gif

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SILVER WARNING and Chart update - Breakout Ahead??

SLV / Silver: 3yr: Ytd: 10d /  9.30.22 close:

kCNP30d.gif

WARNING!  Is this News as Bullish as it sounds ??  Time will tell.

FLASH UPDATE: Silver Disappearing Fast

REMINDER from the Precious metals thread...

Commercial LONGS are a key signal:

#3: SILVER, from 2016 - we are already IN a Buying Window

eCljRJK.png

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FRESNILLO

FRES.L ... 2yr: Ytd: 10d / 769.20 + 21.40, +2.86%

xBb3aEH.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...

SLV : ALL / Last: $17.39

wnKTuuL.gif

LOWEST IN 9 YEARS SILVER SUPPLY : 

"What's interesting is that the current supply of futures contracts is at a nine-year low. On COMEX as of last Monday, the total open interest in silver was just 125,748 contracts. At 5,000 digital ounces per contract, this represents 628,740,000 of "silver", and this is the lowest total open interest level since November 11, 2013.

While 125,748 contracts and 628,740,000 digital ounces may seem like a lot, by any historical measure it isn’t. For example, as recently as June of last year, total open interest was near 200,000 contracts. Additionally, the all-time high in COMEX silver open interest was reached on February 24, 2020, at a whopping 244,705 contracts for 1,223,525,000 digital ounces.

Stated another way, total open interest in COMEX Digital Silver has fallen by 48.6% since the all-time highs two and a half years ago."     >  https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-10-11/physical-silver-demand-soars-digital-silver-demand-plunges

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