Steve Netwriter Posted May 28, 2008 Report Share Posted May 28, 2008 In relation to my above post; maybe a form of protection would be to close profitable positions on a regular basis, suffer the (small) costs of opening new postions if I feel the opportunity is still there, and withdraw funds leaving only minimum margin on account. This way if there is a genuine significant global financial meltdown I can effectively default the contract like everyone else.. From the last Jim Sinclair email: The greatest technical analysis trick is simple to learn. Whatever your emotions say to you is totally wrong. Whenever you want to margin to the rafters it is time to eliminate debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted May 28, 2008 Report Share Posted May 28, 2008 Gatesy, You might find this one interesting. http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/goldtrailtwo.html This stampede out of "paper physical" by the "big boys" will first discount that medium as all the selling comes to play. Then the real buying of physical will ensue. It seems every Gold bug sees only half the trade and has great faith that contract law will favor a short squeeze. Yet, none of them see where it's the long that will be dumping and forcing the discount! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted May 28, 2008 Report Share Posted May 28, 2008 Gatesy, You might find this one interesting. http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/goldtrailtwo.html Thanks Steve; a wealth of information as usual. Lots to think on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted May 29, 2008 Report Share Posted May 29, 2008 Al talks with Jason Hommel about the reality of silver shortages. http://www.kereport.com/DailyRadio/Daily052808.mp3 That's gotta be worth a listen. Silver shortages and 8 week delays ? You betcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwizzie Posted June 5, 2008 Report Share Posted June 5, 2008 Ted butler on bubbles (not the monkey) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted June 6, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2008 I think we have a major buyer for silver at 1650. Look at the support it has there. I can't believe I didn't notice it before. I think we might be about to get a run on silver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woody Posted June 6, 2008 Report Share Posted June 6, 2008 Hi Cuthbert, I think you're right. This is the P&F for the UK ETF (PHAG.L). Good support just north of $16.50. Still in a short-term down-trend which we need to break out of but I'm as long as I can be for now at least! Edit: Forgot to mention that trade is also heavily to the long side this morning. Like by 30x. Woody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted June 6, 2008 Report Share Posted June 6, 2008 I think we have a major buyer for silver at 1650. Look at the support it has there. I can't believe I didn't notice it before. I think we might be about to get a run on silver. I can't believe you didn't either. I can't believe I didn't !!! It is pretty obvious isn't it. Yep, next step $225 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted June 14, 2008 Report Share Posted June 14, 2008 Silver - Still No Respect By David Morgan June 13, 2008 http://www.silver-investor.com/davidmorgan...lNoRespect.html And the video: http://www.moneyshow.com/msc/investors/pla...mp;scode=011490 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted June 14, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2008 Went into coin dealers in Guernsey this week to see about buying silver and waht deal was on VAT. Silver closed Thur at £265 per kilo. One dealer was selling kilos for £425 - and would only come down to £415. The other for £353 and wouldn't budge. When I suggested spot prices or similar, they just said if I could find anywhere that would sell at or close to spot, I was to tell them. Gold was selling at much closer to spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted June 14, 2008 Report Share Posted June 14, 2008 Went into coin dealers in Guernsey this week to see about buying silver and waht deal was on VAT. Do you know what the VAT rate is there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted June 14, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2008 No VAT in Ch Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted June 15, 2008 Report Share Posted June 15, 2008 Went into coin dealers in Guernsey this week to see about buying silver and waht deal was on VAT. Silver closed Thur at £265 per kilo. One dealer was selling kilos for £425 - and would only come down to £415. The other for £353 and wouldn't budge. When I suggested spot prices or similar, they just said if I could find anywhere that would sell at or close to spot, I was to tell them. Gold was selling at much closer to spot This is strange as goldmoney will sell you silver at spot, that you can arrange collection from London on 1000oz bars, and their offfice is in the channel islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 15, 2008 Report Share Posted June 15, 2008 Worth looking at industrial suppliers of silver, you never know. Heres a start, Silver Rods http://www.advent-rm.com/items.asp?criteri...nenumber=AG5499 1 metre [1000mm] rods, weigh 824g, and cost £926 each. OR £1.12378641 per gram silver 1 troy oz = 31.1034768 grams £1.12378641 x 31.1034768 = £34.95 per troy oz. Ouch, expensive! I ll keep hunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 15, 2008 Report Share Posted June 15, 2008 Been rumaging again - so far I cannot buy silver close to spot. There are a few sites that sell silver for the making of Jewerlry. Is it time to buy Silver ETFs? Will it gap up to the real price? Here is another site selling silver - http://www.cooksongold.com/category/Sheet/ £406.67 per KG sheet silver. £406.67 / 1000 = £0.40667 per gram 1 troy oz = 31.1034768 grams £0.40667 x 31.1034768 = £12.6488509 per Oz --> In dollars* = £12.6488509 x 1.9453 = $24.6058097 per oz Remember spot price for silver is $16.510 per oz *1 British pound = 1.9453 U.S. dollars Take off VAT at 17.5% $24.6058097 per oz x 0.175 = $4.3060167 $24.6058097-$4.3060167 = $20.299793 per oz Ask Spread 20.299793 - 16.51000 = 3.789793 % [3.789793 / 16.51000]*100 = 22.9% Phew - We'll need someone to devise a Excel sheet to do all this in a few easy steps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 15, 2008 Report Share Posted June 15, 2008 Same calculation with goldline £205.75 per 500g Silver Bullion £205.75 / 500 = £0.4115 per gram 1 troy oz = 31.1034768 grams £0.4115 x 31.1034768 = £12.7990807 per Oz --> In dollars* = £12.7990807 x 1.9453 = $24.8980517 per oz Remember spot price for silver is $16.510 per oz *1 British pound = 1.9453 U.S. dollars Take off VAT at 17.5% $24.8980517 per oz x 0.175 = $4.35715905 $24.8980517-$4.35715905 = $20.5408926 per oz Ask Spread 20.5408926 - 16.51000 = 4.0308926 % [4.0308926 / 16.51000]*100 = 24.4% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 15, 2008 Report Share Posted June 15, 2008 I can only assume the spread is huge because the silver market is thinly traded, perhaps illiquid. Whereas GOLD is much bigger market. I ll treat silver like "AIM" stock, and GOLD like a blue chip FTSE-100 stock in terms of size of market. When interest rises for silver, then perhaps the spread will narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 15, 2008 Report Share Posted June 15, 2008 BINGO http://www.cooksongold.com/category/Grain-...Casting-Pieces/ Silver grain £288.19 per KG £288.19 / 1000 = £0.28819 per gram 1 troy oz = 31.1034768 grams £0.28819 x 31.1034768 = £8.96371098 per Oz --> In dollars* = £8.96371098 x 1.9453 = $17.437107 per oz not including VAT *1 British pound = 1.9453 U.S. dollars Pretty close to spot as you can get, the disadvantage is that it is in silver grains - not as easy to sell without offical stamps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 16, 2008 Report Share Posted June 16, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted June 16, 2008 Report Share Posted June 16, 2008 Thanks for your silver calculations. Out of interest, the New Zealand Mint do silver for about 16% above spot. I wonder what postage is I'm not sure that magic silver chart is right I think 2008 should be 28, and 2010 should be 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 16, 2008 Report Share Posted June 16, 2008 This is a great time to load up on silver, loaded up this morning on PHAG ETF. Physical silver, at the moment is a terrible investment in the UK. High premiums, low scrap prices, + VAT. I ll have to let other people buy the physical, such as the Americans, Canadians, Chinese and Austrailians, and I ll buy the ETF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 16, 2008 Report Share Posted June 16, 2008 Concentrated Short Positions http://www.silvermonthly.com/208/central-b...balance-sheets/ "Major firms such as Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, and UBS all operate as bullion banks." A number of commentators have pointed out, the concentrated short positions are held by a handful of banks, which is keeping the price of Silver artifically depressed. This must be doomed to fail[!]. They already have their own problems with subprime loans, Alt-A loans etc. We can check their health by keeping an eye on their stockprice. AS long as their shareprices continue to crash, continue to buy and hold silver, as confidence in the financial system deterioates. Will these bank sharerpices contine to fall to no value? Will they eventually end their short positions? Will the FED engineer another bail out? Eitherway, an end game must happen soon. http://silver-investment.blogspot.com/2008...-positions.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted June 16, 2008 Report Share Posted June 16, 2008 Thanks for your silver calculations. Out of interest, the New Zealand Mint do silver for about 16% above spot. I wonder what postage is I'm not sure that magic silver chart is right I think 2008 should be 28, and 2010 should be 56 LOL If we look closely, each peak that silver made, it was made between January and March, then we had a year and a half of sideways movement. If the patern repeats, I d expect a new high to be made between January 2010 and March 2010. Interesting times, but a fair bit of patience is required! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted June 16, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2008 Great chart, notanew. I think buy silver with goldmoney is the cheapest way to by physical - or silver bags from the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted June 16, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2008 Hey nice site - and great charts. Do you mind if I use one for Moneyweek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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