chas and dave Posted September 8, 2006 Report Share Posted September 8, 2006 'How the hell did the dollar stengthen?' Also what kicked off first, gold drop or dollar rise? Gold was rising and dollar was falling - is it niave to think that US would sell some of their massive gold to rebalance this move? (genuine question) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whosthedaddy? Posted September 9, 2006 Report Share Posted September 9, 2006 Interesting article in todays Torygraph about investing in Gold. It suggests investing in Gold Funds mostly. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...09/cmgold09.xml One comment in this article caught my attention..... "But I would suggest caution. One of the risks to the economy is the falling rates of growth of money supply especially in the US. This is potentially going to lead to lower inflationary pressure than many investors fear." Is money supply falling? I thought it was still being happily pumped into the system. Still it's interesting to see an article on Gold in a National newspaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sigmadelta Posted September 9, 2006 Report Share Posted September 9, 2006 Is money supply falling? I thought it was still being happily pumped into the system. It's the rate of growth over time of money supply falling, not the money supply itself. So it is growing, but not as fast as before. But one could argue that if the rate of growth of money supply is above the growth in, say, output then it is still inflationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted September 9, 2006 Report Share Posted September 9, 2006 Still it's interesting to see an article on Gold in a National newspaper. Yes, and often when something goes mainstream it is a contrarian indicator to not follow. Not clear what the date of this was, but if you are a goldbug the magazine cover below ought to ring some alarms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverharp Posted September 9, 2006 Report Share Posted September 9, 2006 'How the hell did the dollar stengthen?' Also what kicked off first, gold drop or dollar rise? Gold was rising and dollar was falling - is it niave to think that US would sell some of their massive gold to rebalance this move? (genuine question) Listening to FSN today they said that the stock market thinks rate rising is done but the FX markets think the Fed will raise rates, it would explain why gold dropped a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amature Investor Posted September 11, 2006 Report Share Posted September 11, 2006 Just to bump this up. $594 per ounce now. how far will it go? Amature Investor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amature Investor Posted September 11, 2006 Report Share Posted September 11, 2006 Just to bump this up. $594 per ounce now. how far will it go? Amature Investor 591 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duane_dibbley Posted September 11, 2006 Report Share Posted September 11, 2006 591 now Amost at 200dma if it drops below that I don't know what will happen. Maybe we whould reopen Gold - the bears thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indium Posted September 11, 2006 Report Share Posted September 11, 2006 Amost at 200dma if it drops below that I don't know what will happen. Maybe we whould reopen Gold - the bears thread. 588 - I didn't see this coming. It could go anywhere from here (it's looking quite bearish to me at the moment) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yogi Posted September 11, 2006 Report Share Posted September 11, 2006 We've bounced back up to the 200DMA in quite an impressive fashion. I expect we'll dip down again, maybe during the Jap session, just to confirm the low, but presuming today's low holds and we manage to consolidate back above the 200DMA later this week, then I will add to my position. Currently down a loooong way, but determined to not add any more until a clear bottom is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 11, 2006 Author Report Share Posted September 11, 2006 On Gold, There is some possibility of a Low being put in here & now But gold will need to close that gap soon So far, it reminds me of the previous fall thru $600, which quicklty brought a fall to $555, and left a gap, later filled, near $600 i also note that the current crude level near $65, can generate a bounce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted September 12, 2006 Report Share Posted September 12, 2006 Barchart.com 's indicators read the markets as follows: Composite Indicator Trend Spotter TM Sell Short Term Indicators 7 Day Average Directional Indicator Sell 10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Sell 20 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell 20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Sell 20 Day Bollinger Bands Sell Short Term Indicators Average: 100% - Sell 20-Day Average Volume - 36230 Medium Term Indicators 40 Day Commodity Channel Index Sell 50 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell 20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell 50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Sell Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Sell 50-Day Average Volume - 51711 Long Term Indicators 60 Day Commodity Channel Index Sell 100 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell 50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Sell 100-Day Average Volume - 63576 Overall Average: 100% - Sell Price Support Pivot Point Resistance 597.3 572.6 602.0 631.4 But are we seeing a bounce of the 200dma? ]gold[/url] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 13, 2006 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2006 gold : logical target is $550-560 : chart update : daily $560-ish is where the lower bolly and the 52-week ma's converge // that's the 252d ma $550 is the prior low. Note how volume on GLD is drying up as the price falls - a bullish sign The weekly chart for silver : chart : targets $10 Oil/ USO meantime has been falling on rising volume / not bullish: chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 13, 2006 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2006 (from the august watchlist thread - in case you missed it) the Seasonal Gold chart shows the big Pop up in the second half, so that period is still ahead of us. We could get a low within this week at $560 or so. Some Senior stocks, charts, and possible targets follow: Newmont : NEM : $42.40 Barrick... : ABX : maybe $27.20 Anglogold : AU : $40-now!, or maybe $37 Goldfields : GFI : $16, or maybe $14 Goldcorp. : GG : $23, maybe $20 ASA Corp : ASA : $50 - - some cyclical dates from Fred Starkey for Gold & Silver are as follows: 52 week: high: Oct.6th // minor low: Nov 6th // low: jan 5th he talks about gold going to $660, $683 or even $718 it is funny how he is talking Oct upside targets as gold is falling. This is because of a "double divergence on the stochastics" - expects sharp turnaround Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duane_dibbley Posted September 13, 2006 Report Share Posted September 13, 2006 gold : logical target is $550-560 : chart update $560-ish is where the lower bolly and the 52-week ma's converge // that's the 252d ma $550 is the prior low. Note how volume on GLD is drying up as the price falls - a bullish sign The weekly chart for silver : chart : targets $10 Oil/ USO meantime has been falling on rising volume / not bullish: chart Can someone please tell me what the volume represents. Is it the volume of transactions and if it is low while the price is dropping does that mean that a small amount of people are selling a lot ogf gold? If so does this give us evidence of possible price manipulation here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 13, 2006 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2006 that is volume traded in GLD, the Gold tracker etf, which folows the gold price. Thus, it is a hint of the overall interest in gold, without necessarily reflecting all transactions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harvipark Posted September 14, 2006 Report Share Posted September 14, 2006 Gold tumbling again.....now sub $580 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riser Posted September 15, 2006 Report Share Posted September 15, 2006 Gold tumbling again.....now sub $580 The fall stinks of central bank selling, back in August they still has around 100 tons sitting in their vaults which they could sell before reaching the limits of the Washington agreement, their gentlemans agreement not to sell more than 500 tons of gold per year. The bosses of the Central banks are having their annual conference next week and gold was always going to be on the agenda, the two european central banks who sold to drive the price down this week have ensured that any bosses considering increasing rather than decreasing their gold holdings will need to think again. The current falls are due to a combination of central bank selling combined with falling energy prices thanks to the US holding back on attacking Iran until the current run of elections are out of the way. Short term gold will now have to contend with investors looking to drive it further below the 200 day moving average but the longer term fundamentals which drove the recent gold bull are still there. Guess its all eyes on NY this afternoon I suspect the support mentioned by Barclays will prove just too tempting and we may see $550 for a while before a rally after the central banks meeting which may pick up pace after the US elections are out of the way and Bush feels able to let his Rottweilers out again. Buy now for gold relief rally next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harvipark Posted September 16, 2006 Report Share Posted September 16, 2006 The fall stinks of central bank selling, back in August they still has around 100 tons sitting in their vaults which they could sell before reaching the limits of the Washington agreement, their gentlemans agreement not to sell more than 500 tons of gold per year. The bosses of the Central banks are having their annual conference next week and gold was always going to be on the agenda, the two european central banks who sold to drive the price down this week have ensured that any bosses considering increasing rather than decreasing their gold holdings will need to think again. The current falls are due to a combination of central bank selling combined with falling energy prices thanks to the US holding back on attacking Iran until the current run of elections are out of the way. Short term gold will now have to contend with investors looking to drive it further below the 200 day moving average but the longer term fundamentals which drove the recent gold bull are still there. Guess its all eyes on NY this afternoon I suspect the support mentioned by Barclays will prove just too tempting and we may see $550 for a while before a rally after the central banks meeting which may pick up pace after the US elections are out of the way and Bush feels able to let his Rottweilers out again. Buy now for gold relief rally next week Thanks for that Riser From what I am reading, the consensus are still bullish on gold so I am happy to wait until we see a significant rallly. Like many I suspect, I got caught out with this latest drop in price. I bought back in around the $620 mark, but luckily I have scraped together a few more thousand to invest so I hopefully I can pick a better buying opportunity in the next few days Cheers Harvi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chas and dave Posted September 17, 2006 Report Share Posted September 17, 2006 It's said that gold responds to uncertainty and global tension. I wonder if the Pope has a few nuggets tucked away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted September 17, 2006 Report Share Posted September 17, 2006 It's said that gold responds to uncertainty and global tension. I wonder if the Pope has a few nuggets tucked away. I'm sure he has some, the holy grail and all that if you know what I mean. As for the real world, if you look at some charts of gold going back 5-6 years the long term trend is still well in place - upwards. Only if gold falls through $500 is it really in trouble IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yogi Posted September 17, 2006 Report Share Posted September 17, 2006 Yes - the 5 year chart still looks a tad scary (as in price still way above long term uptrend). I'm sure the amount of dollars printed over the last few years more than justifies $600+ gold, but the markets don't seem to be seeing it as a currency at the moment so that aspect of the fundamentals isn't really in play. I'll be aiming to trade the weekly up and down trends wherever they take us in the short term, rather than committing to long term positions. If we get as low as $525, that may change as the risk / reward will be hugely good at that point. Ultimate scenario... gold gets dragged down to $500ish alongside a general commodity bust, as US recession kicks in early next year. Gold bottoms just in time for me to STR next May allowing me to confidently commit most of the STR fund to bullion / gold stocks. 3 years later I've doubled my money and UK house prices are down 30% Won't hold my breath, but it would be very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted September 19, 2006 Report Share Posted September 19, 2006 http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/g.../2006/0919.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needle Posted September 19, 2006 Report Share Posted September 19, 2006 http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/g.../2006/0919.html Excuse my ignorance but are these charts good or bad? Looks to me like it could rocket or it could flop.....Frizzers....its over to you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted September 20, 2006 Report Share Posted September 20, 2006 A lot of people have been seeking to catch the bottom in this fall and, in doing so, they have guessed that gold will bounce either off its 200dma or its 252 dma - ie that the 200dma at about 590 or the 252 dma ten dollars or so lower would be the bottom. If they have traded on this basis they will have lost money. The argument is that we are in a bull market and often in a bull market the 200 or 252 dma can mark the bottom of the pullback. These charts at http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/g.../2006/0919.html argue that the 200 and 252dma have not been so accurate in calling bottoms during gold's run, that in fact the 300 dma is a better tool. And, looking at the charts, gold has not passed through the 300 dma once since the 'bull' began in 01. BUT it has bounced off it many times. So it might be that, if gold goes any lower from here, it will find its bottom and bounce off the 300dma at 550, (567.1 if you trade the December future). If recent history is any guide, there is a good chance that is what will unfold. But who knows with gold? ]gold[/url] ]december gold[/url] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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