frizzers Posted March 27, 2009 Report Share Posted March 27, 2009 TIME TO SELL Oil and Oil-related shares? - The Fundamentals dont look so "hot", and we've had a nice run. I am doing some lightening up here /more: http://seekingalpha.com/article/127517-why...icle_sb_popular Hmm SP500 and SMH have broken up, OIH couldn't manage it ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicejim Posted March 28, 2009 Report Share Posted March 28, 2009 Underpinning the rally in crude oil (which could falter as short covering abates) are memories of 2008. That may not have had as much to do with the market as we might have imagined. Did Goldman Goose Oil? http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0413/096...-goose-oil.html "What transpired at Semgroup was no less than a $500 billion fraud on the people of the world," says John Catsimatidis, the billionaire grocer turned oil refiner who is attempting to reorganize Semgroup in bankruptcy court. The $500 billion is how much the world would have overpaid for crude had a successful scam pushed up oil prices by $50 a barrel for 100 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliveandkicking Posted March 28, 2009 Report Share Posted March 28, 2009 Peak oil is all very well, quite plausable and perhaps factual but does it mean that the price of oil will rise and rise? to assume that you have to assume that human civilisations continue as they have done. You have to assume that other methods will not rise to prominance and i think most importantly you have to assume that the removal of cheap oil from our planets economic fundamentals does not in of itself cause a crash in our economies to drive us back to an era before heavier than air aircraft and lightweight highpower engines either directly or indirectly reliant on oil. Alot to assume. On the other hand given inflation it is a given that we will get to 1000 dollar oil one day. But to imagine that peak oil will drive oil prices stratospheric seems nuts to me. There is a massive amount of oil still available. The question is whether 'is oil going to be so cheap that you can use it for junk products' or 'is oil going to be a rationed commodity like most others'. If oil is rationed like say copper it does not necessarily mean oil will be so expensive. It just wont be cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 23, 2009 Report Share Posted June 23, 2009 I AM SHORT CRUDE - by holding Puts on USO, the etf for WTI crude. For all the reasons enumerated in my article for Financial Sense. ( "Buying Oil - Be Careful with the Oil ETFs" ) I expect to see USO be weaker than WTI Crude in the months to come. Here's a look at the charts USO - etf for WTI crude ... update OIH - etf for Oil service stocks ... update : USO-to-WTI Crude Ratio ...................................................... : USO-to-OIH Ratio ...................................................... : ... USO vs. OIH ... update Nice move down in USO and Crude yesterday /Monday: USO : $36.25 -1.72 / Pct Chg: -4.53% WTI : $67.50 -2.52 / Pct chg: -3.60% OIH : $95.04 -6.62 / Pct chg: -6.51% NOTE: A drop in OIH came just ahead of this big slide in WTI & USO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whosthedaddy? Posted June 24, 2009 Report Share Posted June 24, 2009 I AM SHORT CRUDE - by holding Puts on USO, the etf for WTI crude. What is your target for WTI Dr. B? I've sold my Oil Majors and Oil Services stocks few weeks back and am looking to buy back in down the line sometime. Wasn't brave enough to short them though. So am wondering about how far Oil drops back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 28, 2009 Report Share Posted June 28, 2009 What is your target for WTI Dr. B? I've sold my Oil Majors and Oil Services stocks few weeks back and am looking to buy back in down the line sometime. I own Puts on USO (so that's not exactly short, but directionly the same.) Short on USO, is maybe safer than short on OIH, etc.* No precise target. I will await the next BUY signal, or a healthy profit == == *Having said that, the chart shows the drop in OIH (-9%) was far greater than the drop in USO (-4%) over the last 10 days USO vs. OIH ... update : Daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 7, 2009 Report Share Posted July 7, 2009 On the Oil and Gas side, I'm looking at San Juan Trust / SJT - a gas royalty ... Update : Daily : Intraday Falling too fast to buy right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 7, 2009 Report Share Posted July 7, 2009 I AM SHORT CRUDE - by holding Puts on USO, the etf for WTI crude. Took some profits today. From the Dairy: Nice gains on Oil Puts PUT (USO) UNITED STS OIL FD LPJUL 42 (100 SHS) 07/18/2009 BOT at : $ 3.90 - 06/18/2009 Sold at : $ 7.90 - today Trying higher prices for remaining puts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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