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Signals for Oil : OIH and BHI may lead upturn.


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Underpinning the rally in crude oil (which could falter as short covering abates) are memories of 2008.

That may not have had as much to do with the market as we might have imagined.

 

Did Goldman Goose Oil?

 

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0413/096...-goose-oil.html

 

"What transpired at Semgroup was no less than a $500 billion fraud on the people of the world," says John Catsimatidis, the billionaire grocer turned oil refiner who is attempting to reorganize Semgroup in bankruptcy court. The $500 billion is how much the world would have overpaid for crude had a successful scam pushed up oil prices by $50 a barrel for 100 days.
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Peak oil is all very well, quite plausable and perhaps factual but does it mean that the price of oil will rise and rise?

 

to assume that you have to assume that human civilisations continue as they have done. You have to assume that other methods will not rise to prominance and i think most importantly you have to assume that the removal of cheap oil from our planets economic fundamentals does not in of itself cause a crash in our economies to drive us back to an era before heavier than air aircraft and lightweight highpower engines either directly or indirectly reliant on oil.

 

Alot to assume.

 

On the other hand given inflation it is a given that we will get to 1000 dollar oil one day.

 

But to imagine that peak oil will drive oil prices stratospheric seems nuts to me. There is a massive amount of oil still available. The question is whether 'is oil going to be so cheap that you can use it for junk products' or 'is oil going to be a rationed commodity like most others'. If oil is rationed like say copper it does not necessarily mean oil will be so expensive. It just wont be cheap.

 

 

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  • 2 months later...

I AM SHORT CRUDE - by holding Puts on USO, the etf for WTI crude.

 

For all the reasons enumerated in my article for Financial Sense.

( "Buying Oil - Be Careful with the Oil ETFs" )

I expect to see USO be weaker than WTI Crude in the months to come.

 

Here's a look at the charts

 

USO - etf for WTI crude ... update

aaai.gif

 

OIH - etf for Oil service stocks ... update

aaa1z.gif

 

: USO-to-WTI Crude Ratio ...................................................... : USO-to-OIH Ratio ...................................................... :

aaalbi.png...aab.png

 

USO vs. OIH ... update

xxxhmq.gif

 

Nice move down in USO and Crude yesterday /Monday:

USO : $36.25 -1.72 / Pct Chg: -4.53%

WTI : $67.50 -2.52 / Pct chg: -3.60%

OIH : $95.04 -6.62 / Pct chg: -6.51%

 

NOTE:

A drop in OIH came just ahead of this big slide in WTI & USO

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I AM SHORT CRUDE - by holding Puts on USO, the etf for WTI crude.

 

What is your target for WTI Dr. B?

 

I've sold my Oil Majors and Oil Services stocks few weeks back and am looking to buy back in down the line sometime.

 

Wasn't brave enough to short them though.

 

So am wondering about how far Oil drops back?

 

 

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What is your target for WTI Dr. B?

I've sold my Oil Majors and Oil Services stocks few weeks back and am looking to buy back in down the line sometime.

 

I own Puts on USO (so that's not exactly short, but directionly the same.)

Short on USO, is maybe safer than short on OIH, etc.*

 

No precise target. I will await the next BUY signal, or a healthy profit

== ==

 

*Having said that, the chart shows the drop in OIH (-9%) was far greater than the drop in USO (-4%)

over the last 10 days

 

USO vs. OIH ... update : Daily

zzzzy.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...

On the Oil and Gas side, I'm looking at

 

San Juan Trust / SJT - a gas royalty ... Update : Daily : Intraday

whampoaf.gif

 

Falling too fast to buy right now

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I AM SHORT CRUDE - by holding Puts on USO, the etf for WTI crude.

 

Took some profits today. From the Dairy:

Nice gains on Oil Puts

 

PUT (USO) UNITED STS OIL FD LPJUL 42 (100 SHS) 07/18/2009

 

BOT at : $ 3.90 - 06/18/2009

Sold at : $ 7.90 - today

 

Trying higher prices for remaining puts.

 

 

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