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OEW / Objective Elliott Wave - Tony Caldaro


Over the years OEW analysis has led to some important projections in just the stock market alone. We projected the 1987 top and subsequent crash, then the Dec. 1987 low. The July 1990 top to the day, the 2000 top, and the Oct. 2002 low. The Oct. 2007 top (in Jan08), the Mar. 2009 low nearly to the day, the recent high in Sept/Oct 2012, and the recent low in Nov 2012, nearly to the day. We are still leaning towards a bull market top in 2013.

In Real Estate: OEW confirmed the bear market in 2006, and now the new bull market starting in 2011. In Bonds: OEW confirmed the recent bull market in 2007, and we are now anticipating an new bear market may be underway. In the Currency markets: OEW projected a strong rally in the USD in early 2008 after a three year decline. Then a resumption of its choppy bear market in 2009/10. We then turned bearish on several foreign currencies in mid-2011, and long term bullish on the USD. In early 2009, OEW projected a resumption of the ongoing 13 year bull market in some Commodities: including Gold and Silver. OEW can be used to track any asset class, including individual stocks, providing there is sufficient historical data.


/see: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2013/01/05/oew-tutoring-70/'>http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2013/01/05/oew-tutoring-70/

Latest View:



What a week! After hitting the maximum downside, to keep the bull market alive, at the open on monday: SPX 1398. The market rallied to the upside monday/wednesday and made a new uptrend high. This was a 4.6% upside reversal in just two days of trading. In the end, the worrisome fiscal cliff drama raised taxes on 1% of the population and kicked the can down the road yet again. For the week the SPX/DOW were +4.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +4.65%. Asian markets gained 1.9%, European markets gained 3.7%, and the DJ World index was +3.1%. Economic reports, for the week, displayed a slight edge to the upside: 5 to 4. On the uptick: monthly payrolls, ISM manufacturing/services, factory orders and the ADP. On the downtick: the WLEI, construction spending, plus both weekly jobless claims and the unemployment rate rose. Next week we get reports on consumer credit, the twin deficits and export/import prices. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: ongoing bull market probability raised to 75%

Based upon our inflection point market analysis, which we have been tracking for the past two months, the SPX came within a few points of entering a bear market. When the potential financial storm reached its darkest moment, see last weekend’s report, the US government ended the ‘fiscal cliff’ drama. The market took off, cleared the inflection range, (SPX 1434-1462), made a new uptrend high, and signalled the bull market should continue during 2013. As a result of this event the probability of a continuing bull market was raised to 75%. When the DOW clears its inflection range, (13,293-13,543), the bearish count posted on the DOW charts, should be eliminated. The rebound high for the DOW, thus far, is 13,447.

On caveat though, and this is important to maintain the current bullish count. The current uptrend needs to make new bull market highs. Rising enough to not overlap the previous uptrend high, at SPX 1475, during the next downtrend. If this does not occur the bull market high may arrive sooner than expected.


The weekly chart, and our OEW labeling, continues to suggest a five Primary wave bull market is underway. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary wave III has been underway since the SPX 1075 low


/see: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/

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Part 2 of interview now available,

“Introducing Neely River Technology: A Paradigm Shift in Market Trading”

In Part 2, Glenn Neely continues his explanation of why he designed an entirely new approach to market trading – an approach that is not based on forecasting.

Click to hear the recording or read the transcript:

Click to hear Part 1

Click to hear Part 2

We hope you enjoy this intriguing interview!

The NEoWave Team

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Precious Metals, Ellliott Wave Counts


TONY C on Silver (pg 10):




TONY C's Colleague's Counts...


M on Platinum (pg 9):




X on Gold (pg 10):



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Tony C's Count from DrB's Diary


Pullback due?

Or at least iii-High is "potentially complete" - Tony C's call now


SPY ... update




Currently we can count this pattern as potentially complete. Especially with the negative RSI divergence. However, since this uptrend seems to just keep on rising we are raising our critical support level from SPX 1539 to the 1552 pivot range. On any pullback the market needs to stay within the 1545-1559 range to keep the uptrend intact. Should the SPX drop below this range a downtrend is probably underway.




The hourly chart displays the entire uptrend from SPX 1343. Each Minor wave divided into five Minute waves i-v, and Minor wave 2 and 4 alternated. A classic bullish pattern. Minor wave 5 is currently in Minute wave v, its last rally. Observe Minute v of Minor 1 was quite short. And, Minute v of Minor 3 was much better, but ended in a diagonal triangle. Minute v of Minor 5 is also displaying this potential topping pattern.


Longer Term : Still Bullish


We continue to project a bull market high between Feb/Apr 2014.

The wave pattern suggests there are still three more uptrends, after the current one, to complete the pattern. The market still needs to complete Intermediate wave v to end Major wave 3. Then Major wave 5 to end Primary III. Then Primary wave V to end the bull market. Our current price target, which may be raised, suggests SPX 1650-1700 by early 2014.


/TonyC: http://caldaro.wordp...end-update-390/

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RATIO of Stocks-to-Gold : An important Level has been hit


(From Elliottwave Int'l ):


The mainstream financial media almost always make the Fed out to be a group of all-powerful market magicians. If the Fed Chairman and his associates can pull the appropriate financial levers and switches, they say, then the economy and markets will suddenly get better.




This characterization of the Fed's omnipotence isn't new. But is it accurate? For just one example, let's take a trip back to 1999.


If you recall, global markets had just traversed through a rough patch. The previous two years had seen a currency crisis in Thailand, the Asian financial crisis, the Russian financial crisis, and a downturn in U.S. stocks.

By early 1999, Greenspan was so worried about the markets that he lowered interest rates -- the "Greenspan Put."

Not long afterwards, Time Magazine affectionately hailed Greenspan and co. "the Committee to Save the World." The issue told readers "the inside story of how the Three Marketeers have prevented a global economic meltdown -- so far."


But did Greenspan really save the world and "prevent a global economic meltdown"?


This chart might provide a clue. It's from EWI Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg's new subscriber-exclusive video, "Three Historic Peaks in the Financial Markets -- and What It Means for You."




The black arrow shows you when the "Greenspan Put" began. As you can see, stocks did briefly rally after that moment -- but then the 2000-2003 bear market erased all the gains, and then some. Not to mention the fact that in the 12 years since that "world-saving" move by the Fed, the stock market has actually gone sideways in nominal terms, and down in terms of the Dow priced in ounces of gold.



Read more: http://www.elliottwa...x#ixzz2PXenMl2V


RATIO : SPX -to- Gold / the area near 1.000 seems important on the charts.




SPX : $ 1,553.69

Gold : $ 1,557.90

RATIO : 0.9973 (day's range: 0.9961 - 1.0087)

Fibo.1 : 0.618 (above the low)

Fibo.2 : 0.786 (was resistance) = SQRT (0.618)



Ratio : INDU to Gold




Low : 0.5694 / Ratio: INDU/Gold

Mid : 0.7269 /A: support: Aug. 2012

Ratio: 1.277 //B: Low2 : Low1

AxB : 0.9280 / Target?

Now: 0.9340

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Another tentative iii ?





From Tony C:



AND THEN, it looked like "extending":


Now it is starting to look impulsive: 1554-1549-1567-1561-1574-1568. This uptrend may be extending again. Tough call either way short term.

Short term support remains at the 1552 and 1523 pivots, with resistance at the 1576 and 1614 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought at today’s high, then started to decline. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now SPX 1559.

/more: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/


1,585.99 Change:

arrow_up_sm.gif +17.38 Open:

1,568.61 High:

1,586.39 Low:

1,568.61 Volume:

204,247,231 Percent Change:


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SHORT TERM - per TonyC / Latest Target: 1613-8


- with Friday's SPX close at: 1,588.85 -4.52 :: O: 1,593.30 / H: 1,593.30 / L: 1,579.97



Short/medium term support remains at the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots.


Short term momentum rose from oversold on Friday to just past neutral.

The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1575.



When we review the entire uptrend we observe:

Minor 1 was 81 pts.,

Minor 3 was 133 pts. and

Minor 5 is 112 pts. thus far.


Since Minor 5 has already exceeded the length of Minor 1, it can equal Minor 3 at SPX 1618. Then we would have both Minor waves 3 and 5 1.618 times Minor 1. Within Minor 5 we observe: Minute i was 40 points, Minute iii was 73 pts. and Minute v is 57 pts. thus far. Again since Minute v has already exceeded Minute i, it can equal Minute iii at SPX 1613. Then we would have both Minute waves iii and v 1.618 times Minute i. Lots of symmetry between SPX 1613 and 1618. Which also straddles the OEW 1614 pivot. This Fibonacci cluster looks like a good place to look, yet again, for an uptrend top.

Best to your trading!


/more: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/

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An urgent new resource from market technician Bob Prechter

On Tuesday afternoon (April 23), Robert Prechter, a famed market technician known for calling the roaring bull market of the '80s, the 1987 crash and the March 2009 stock market low, published an urgent new issue of his Elliott Wave Theorist.

This issue is so powerful -- and so urgent -- that EWI has unlocked the first two pages for you to read with no obligation to buy.

Every issue of the Theorist provides you with a unique look at tomorrow's news today. This issue meets that high standard and more. It's one of the most powerful and revealing issues of the Theorist subscribers will ever read. Now, Prechter is not always right. Unfortunately, no market analyst is. But there's one thing his readers know for certain: When Prechter revs up his urgency, he sees something big on the horizon.

Due to the timely nature of this issue, EWI cannot make the first two pages available indefinitely, so they've set a date of May 8 to end this special promotion -- at which time the first two pages will no longer be available for free.

Please follow this link to get instant access to the first two pages of Prechter's urgent market letter >>

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Naturally this 70+ year super bull market will consist of many bull and bear markets. Just like the 1932-2007 Super cycle wave 1. The entire Super cycle wave unfolds in five Cycle waves. We are currently in Cycle wave [1]. The last Cycle wave [1] lasted five years and unfolded in five Primary waves. We have been expecting the same thing to occur in this Cycle wave [1].


Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary III has been underway since that low. Primary I divided into five Major waves with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary III is following a similar path, only both Major waves 1 and 3 are subdividing. Major waves 1 and 2, of Primary III, completed in mid-2012. Major wave 3 has been underway since that low. Intermediate waves i and ii, of Major 3, completed in late 2012. Intermediate wave iii is still underway.

Upon completion of Int. iii, there will be an Int. iv correction, then an Int. v uptrend to complete Major wave 3. Then after a Major 4 correction, a Major 5 uptrend will complete Primary III. Lastly after a Primary IV correction, a Primary V uptrend will complete the Cycle wave [1] bull market. We currently estimate this should all occur by late-winter to early-spring of 2014. With an upside target of SPX 1650 to 1780. Stay tuned.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

This uptrend, Intermediate wave iii, started in mid-November 2012, after the Int. ii wave low at SPX 1343. When it had a tricky pattern at its beginning, an irregular Minor wave 2 flat. We never expected it would get trickier still in its later stages as well. Regardless, Intermediate wave iii is still extending and uptrending. Over the past couple of weeks we have been kicking around several potential patterns. Now with the uptrend in its sixth month the internal wave pattern is becoming quite clear. We have been carrying the count on the DOW charts, and just friday morning updated the SPX charts to the same count.


We have Intermediate iii naturally dividing into five Minor waves, but with a quite extended Minor wave 3: Minor 1 SPX 1424, Minor 2 SPX 1398, Minor 3 SPX 1597, Minor 4 SPX 1536, and Minor 5 underway. You can see the five Minute waves of the extended Minor 3 on the daily and hourly charts. This wave pattern satisfies what we have been observing on the 10 minute, hourly and daily charts. In both the SPX and the DOW. What we also find interesting is that each of the rallies was near a Fibonacci number: Minor 1 (81 pts,), Minute i, iii and v (133, 89 and 57 pts.). The numbers 55, 89 and 134 are Fibonacci numbers. Dropping the units we have 5, 8 and 13 which are Fibonacci numbers.

Currently Minor wave 5 has already advanced from SPX 1536-1618 (82 pts.). This makes it equal to Minor wave 1, and puts it in the range of the typical 80′s point rallies. The high side, using these Fibonacci numbers would be 1536 + 89 or SPX 1625. Anything above that and we are probably looking into the 130′s range, which is SPX 1666-1675. Quite amazing! On a conventional Fibonacci wave relationship we have the following numbers: @ SPX 1617, (already reached), Minor 5 = Minor 1; @ SPX 1658 Minor 5 = 0.618 Minor 3, and @ SPX 1667 Minor 5 = 1.618 Minor 1. So you can see the wave relationships and Fibonacci numbers all arrive in the same general zones: SPX 1616-1625 and SPX 1658-1675.


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The LOW level reached by the VIX (12.5%)

...makes me think it is time to check in with E-Wave expert, Tony Caldaro


Let's Turn that TZA chart inside out, and look at TNA (3X Bull) and IWM


TNA (3X Bull on Russell 2000) ... update




IWM (1X Etf on Russell 2000) ... update




IWM is running up to that Possible Resistanec level on Lighter Volume.

But it is too dangerous to GO SHORT there, because that is not a sufficient reason (on its own) to expect a Turn.


VIX / Volatility Index ... update - now at : 12.66 +0.37




Tony's latest comment suggest further upside - but we are getting very near a Trade-able High:




Probably with in days or weeks - since only a small drop and a new high is needed to finish off his E-wave pattern.


Tony C's : Blog : Charts


The impending domino effect started by Detroit may do it. Many other cities may follow.

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SPY's uptrend is threatened


SPY / S&p-500 etf ... update


Yet, TonyC still thinks we are in an uptrend, and the next big move,

may be a strong push higher - that would be a Wave-3 impulse move, after W-2 ends




That's his preferred count, but he does have two alternatives which show that Primary Wave III is over.


If W-III is done, then:


"When Major wave 5 concludes, if it not already has, we should see the largest decline since 2012 for Primary wave IV. This type of correction should take the SPX near or below the Major wave 4 low at 1627, and/or the DOW’s Major 4 low at 14,719. After it concludes we should get a resumption of the bull market to all time new highs to conclude Primary V and Cycle wave [1]. We have been projecting this all to unfold by Q3/Q4 2014."


> http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/weekend-update-433/

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"A Melt-up in US Stocks"?

- that's what Paul Thomason, EWMS has suggested in his email today


Meantime, Tony Caldaro has:


+ LONG TERM: bull market - Cycle wave [1] bull market continues to unfold
+ MEDIUM TERM: uptrend - The uptrend in the SPX started in mid-April at SPX 1814. It too has been quite choppy, especially during May...
"Short term support is at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1860, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week slightly overbought. The short term OEW charts are positive with the reversal level at SPX 1873."

"The price activity in the SPX has remained in a narrow range since March. For the most part between the OEW 1841 and 1901 pivots. During a bull market these consolidations are usually bullish. But after a five year bull market they can also be considered to be a topping formation. This kind of action has kept many pundits guessing the next major move in this market. When one compares the SPX daily chart with the NAZ daily chart, both above, it is quite clear why the SPX has been in a trading range. The NAZ has been heading lower for most of that period. An upside surge in that index, which is expected eventually, will certainly usher in an upside breakout in the SPX."


> see: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/05/17/weekend-update-448/


I am not at all sure that a "melt-up lies ahead.

I am getting solid WARNINGS from my own indicators, like THIS one:


"Early Warning" / LQD-to-TLT: http://tinyurl.com/MSI5-d3y



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Does Gold Always Go Up in Recessions and Depressions?


Analysis | Elliott Wave | Written by Elliott Wave International | Tue Jun 09 09


The following article is adapted from a brand-new eBook on gold and silver published by Robert Prechter, founder and CEO of the technical analysis and research firm Elliott Wave International. For the rest of this revealing 40-page eBook, download it for free here.


I have often read, “Gold always goes up in recessions and depressions.” Is it true? Should you own gold because you think the economy is tanking? Whenever we hear some claim like this, we always do the same thing: We look at the data.


The first thing to point out is that gold did not make a nickel of U.S. money for anyone in any of the recessions and depressions from 1792, when the gold-based dollar was adopted, through 1969, a period of 177 years. Well, to be precise, there was a change in the valuation in 1900, when Congress changed the dollar's value from 24.75 grains of gold, the amount established in 1792, to 23.22 grains, a devaluation of just six percent total over 108 years. The government did raise the fixed price from $20.67/oz. to $35/oz. in 1934, but that action occurred during an economic expansion, not during the Depression. In 1968, gold finally began trading away from the government's fixed price. Even then, it slipped to a lower price of $34.95 on January 16 and 19, 1970. So the idea that gold always goes up in recessions and depressions is already shown to be wrong. It did not go up in terms of dollars in any of the (estimated) 35 recessions or three depressions during that period.


What almost always does happen during economic contractions is that the value of whatever people use as money goes up as prices for goods and services fall. When gold is used as money, its value in terms of goods and services goes up. But gold can't go up in dollar terms when gold and dollars are equated. So no one “makes money” holding gold under these conditions. It is a fine point: What tends to go up relative to goods and services during economic contractions is money, and when gold is officially money, that's how it behaves. What we want to know is how gold behaves in recessions and depressions when it is not officially accepted as money.


Many gold bugs say that because gold was a good investment during the Great Depression, it is a “deflation hedge.” We addressed this topic in At the Crest of a Tidal Wave (1995, p.357) and Conquer the Crash (2002, pp. 208-209). At the time, government fixed gold's price, so it didn't go up or down relative to dollars. Gold was a haven during that time, the same as the dollar was, since they were equated by law.


>more: http://www.oilngold.com/analysis/elliott-wave/does-gold-always-go-up-in-recessions-and-depressions-200906097018/

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I wonder if Christine Laguard reads Prechter's Elliott Wave report (haha)



A timely reminder on Robert Prechter's Elliott Waves 7 year cycle which predicted the 2008 crisis.

2008 plus 7 makes 2015 the next crisis cycle.

The March 2004 issue of EWT postulated a 7-year crisis cycle going back to 1973 and used it to predict another crisis in 2008. Here are the table and the forecast from that issue:

—1973: Arab oil embargo, with spillover into 1974 stock market low of wave IV.
—1980: peak in the inflation rate; top in gold, silver and mining stocks, interest rate spike, stock-market “massacre” and low of wave 2.
—1987: stock market crash and low of wave 4.
—1994: “Republican Revolution;” suspicion of government due to Waco attack (1993), “black helicopters,” etc.; stock market breaks uptrend line at low.
—2001: successful terrorist attack on the World Trade Center; low of wave (3) of 1 [actually 3 of a]. Seven years after 2001 is 2008, so that is the next year to look for an extreme in social fear.


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TONY C's latest Objective Elliot Wave Comment:


The market gapped down at open, again following Europe, but closed the gap by 10:30. After that the market got even more volatile, with a drop to SPX 1966, a rally to 1976, then another drop to 1956. Today, International events created some uncertainty. And, markets dislike uncertainty. This was evident with the rallies in Bonds, Crude and Gold. We continue to hold our primary count, since the SPX 1986 high, as an ongoing, choppy, Intermediate wave iv downtrend. Recent new highs in the DOW/NDX offered an alternative count of Minor 5 underway. This afternoon’s decline certainly lowered the probabilities of the alternate count, with the drop below SPX 1960.


We continue to count from the Intermediate wave iii high: Minor A (1959-1973-1953), Minor B (1970-1960-1983-1965-1984), and Minor C underway (1966-1976-1956 so far). As soon as this market loses the OEW 1956 pivot range (1949-1963) there could be a sharp drop to the Intermediate wave iv low.


> http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/07/17/thursday-update-439/


The Top (C, here) may already be in place for the Russell-2000 (RUT)




Tony C is still looking for a drop to an "intermediate wave iv low"




My charts suggest Key Support could come at near SPX-1920 to 1940 ... update




Tony C has identified Support Levels at:

Minor Support: 1945 (minor 4), 1926 (minute iv, of minor 3), and
Major Support? : Fibonacci levels: 1920 (38.2%), and 1900 (50%)
--- > "looking for a low this month"


5-Wave has a Target at 1937:


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Robert Prechter: "This is it ... US stock averages should begin their biggest decline ever." - 19th September, 2014



note: this also coincides w/ Elliot Wave featuring a free Open Week - LINK

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SPX / S&P-500 ... alldata : 10yrs : 5yrs : w/o Count

with Tony Caldaro's Ewave count :



If Tony C's count is correct, we may soon begin a wave IV down, which could be nasty

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"... the S&P might need to undergo a violent "blow off" in the next 1-2 months... "


SPX (etf for S&P500) ... update : SPY : INDU : IWM : XLF / Last: $2,399.62 - rising on lighter volume (so far)




NEOWAVE: Extreme Market Risk

In the last 35-years, there have been ONLY 4 occasions when I was certain a stock market crash was coming – they were the high in 1987, the high in 2000 (the internet bubble), the end of the real estate boom in early 2008 and the high made August 2015. In ALL cases, a massive decline followed.

At this time, based on all the things I know about the U.S. stock market (current Wave structure implications, U.S. margin debt, insider traders selling stock, overbought warnings from my Moat Index, a rising interest rate environment and the volume of new accounts being opened at brokerage firms in 2017 around the country), THIS is the FIRST TIME since August 2015 that I'm VERY concerned a "Stock Market Crash" is just 1-3 months away.

The two ingredients currently missing from the typical setup for a major market top is volatility (which is normally high at major tops and bottoms) and widespread media coverage. With those two elements absent, the S&P might need to undergo a violent "blow off" in the next 1-2 months. Such behavior will increase volatility and definitely get the attention of the main stream media.

Whether the S&P soars to new highs over the next 1-2 months and volatility increases OR the S&P simply sells off and begins a violent decline from a lower high, the odds are EXTREMELY HIGH - in the next 1-3 months - that the U.S. stock market will experience its largest, fastest decline in 10 years! That violent drop will be the start of a 2-4 year bear market that retraces at least 50% of the 2009-2017 bull market. If you look at the attached long-term (6-monthly) chart, you can see my best guess at Wave structure back to 2000's high and the S&P current position and what I expect (the red-dashed line). Keep in mind, a "blow off" advance of 5-10% might occur this month or next BEFORE the crash begins. Either way, I'm fairly confident a multi-year bear market will begin in 2017.

We can only guess what might instigate the next bear market but many possibilities exist. The Fed continuing to raise interest rates historically is enough. The tensions between North Korea, China, the U.S. and Russia is another factor. Massive borrowing by U.S. corporations to buy their own stock, which will eventually have to be paid back, is another concern. Eventually, the cause of the bear market will be decided but, in the mean time, you should prepare.


(by email)

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Updating the truly excellent call of that the III high near 2144 -

Next Target near 2500? Maybe within a month or so ("sell in May and go away"?)


SPX / S&P-500 ... alldata : 10yrs : 5yrs : w/o Count

with Tony Caldaro's Ewave count :



If Tony C's count is correct, we may soon begin a wave IV down, which could be nasty


SPX : All-data


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