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From there:

 

From Mark Hulbert in MarketWatch (11/25/09): “…Prechter’s advice over the last couple of years has been top-rated. …On the other hand, …the newsletter’s timing advice for traders is in last place for performance over the last 20 years among all stock market timing strategies tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.”

 

Listen to his thinking, but dont be a slave to his timing ideas

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Listen to his thinking, but dont be a slave to his timing ideas

 

I agree with a lot of his thinking and do now try and listen to him when stock markets are getting ahead of themselves and have advanced for 8 to 10 weeks.

 

Eg. (not that I watch this muppet show - just Googled)

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1463714869&play=1

 

You don't want to be like these guys - too bullish after a big advance and too arrogant to listen to what Robert Prechter was saying. I give him credit for seeing this top and wish I had seen the video at the time as I would have raised more cash - I am now making a point to see what he is saying when things get too bullish again.

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ES29610-1.jpg

 

Bear flag break out, took profits on half my short position at the old lows in case this is just a corrective "x" wave.

 

EDIT: i and ii just around the break out should be in parenthesis to show a waves of a higher degree.

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Well, I'm sticking to my count as I'm seeing black figures in my accounts. In true elliottwave fashion I'm trying to shut out the news and letting the waves, sentiment and confirming technicals direct me in my trading.

 

Es10710.jpg

 

I added to my position today and I'm staying short on the basis that we are now in a third wave down just having completed the first of a third. I expect there to be a shallow retracement possibly testing the break out area around 1038 in the e minis and have my stops placed above the highs at iv around 1045. If my count is correct then tomorrow possibly Monday I expect to see an explosive move down. We've got non farm payrolls tomorrow so that should stir the markets if there's a significant divergence from the forecast, I suspect there will be.

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A Market Forecast That Says ‘Take Cover’

 

By JEFF SOMMER / July 2, 2010 / NY Times

 

WITH the stock market lurching again, plenty of investors are nervous, and some are downright bearish. Then there’s Robert Prechter, the market forecaster and social theorist, who is in another league entirely.

 

If Robert Prechter is right, one market analyst said, “we’ve basically got to go to the mountains with a gun and some soup cans.”

Mr. Prechter is convinced that we have entered a market decline of staggering proportions — perhaps the biggest of the last 300 years.

. . .

His advice: individual investors should move completely out of the market and hold cash and cash equivalents, like Treasury bills, for years to come. (For traders with a fair amount of skill and willingness to embrace risk, he suggests other alternatives, like shorting the market or making bets on volatility.) But ultimately, “the decline will lead to one of the best investment opportunities ever,” he said.

 

Buy-and-hold stock investors will be devastated in a crash much worse than the declines of 2008 and early 2009 or the worst years of the Great Depression or the Panic of 1873, he predicted.

 

For a rough parallel, he said, go all the way back to England and the collapse of the South Sea Bubble in 1720, a crash that deterred people “from buying stocks for 100 years,” he said. This time, he said, “If I’m right, it will be such a shock that people will be telling their grandkids many years from now, ‘Don’t touch stocks.’ ”

 

The Dow, which now stands at 9,686.48, is likely to fall well below 1,000 over perhaps five or six years as a grand market cycle comes to an end, he said

 

 

/more: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/04/your-mon...amp;ref=general

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Thnx, C. That fits with the following:

Some great help by Confounded on HPC !

 

Thanks for all that hard work, Confounded!

 

zzzzgg.jpg

 

Let me summarise in my own way, adding some nearby dates:

 

0 / ???? (1348) : The Black Death, 1348-50 kills 1/3 of Europe's population

1 / 1495 (1492) : 1492-Columbus discovers America (and "new markets" for Europe)

2 / 1688 (1694) : Glorious Revolution begins- William & Mary / BofE establised-1694

3 / 1744 (1749) : British fleet defeated by Fr.&Sp. at Toulon; High infl., Mass. 1745-49

4 / 1800 (1800) : Act of Union, creating UK; Prices jump 36% in 1800, highest on record*

5 / 1866 (1865) : US Civil War ends 1865; reopening American market,1866

6 / 1915 (1918) : World War I / WW1 Ends 1918, reigniting World trade

 

*(note: the chart shows "real prices", so earnings were discounted at inflation rates)

 

THE BIG UPWARDS THRUST since 1800, was basically the "Industrial Revolution",

and the usage of various forms of energy to increase living standards and real earnings.

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lines added

zzzzxs.gif

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lines added

zzzzxs.gif

Would I be wrong in thinking that that graph suggests the Dow will fall to around 1000?

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Would I be wrong in thinking that that graph suggests the Dow will fall to around 1000?

That's definitely possible.

But it has gone higher in the meantime, especially if you tag China on at the end of it

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The king of doom: veteran forecaster predicts Wall Street slump of up to 90%

 

Feeling too cheerful? In danger of irrational exuberance? Meet the finance man with a plan to depress you - a veteran market forecaster called Robert Prechter who is predicting a stockmarket slide of quite staggering proportions.

 

Prechter, a cult figure in the finance world whose dramatic predictions have sometimes come true, reckons the Dow Jones Industrial Average is set for a fall from its present level of 9,743 to as little as 1,000 to 3,000 points - in other words, a collapse of 70% to 90% in the value of stocks - over the next five to seven years.

 

"It is very clear there is substantial stockmarket risk," he told Reuters today.

 

He expounded on his theory further in the New York Times over the weekend, urging investors to get out of the stockmarket and into safer US treasury bills and bonds.

 

"I'm saying 'winter is coming, buy a coat'," he told the NYT. "Other people are advising people to stay naked. If I'm wrong, you're not hurt. If they're wrong, you're dead. It's pretty benign advice to opt for safety for a while."

 

Prechter, 61, is a former Merrill Lynch analyst and erstwhile rock drummer who is an aficionado of a theory called the Elliott Wave principle - essentially a belief that investor behaviour can be forecast according to measurable swings and patterns of psychology.

 

Prechter is not without credibility - he is a former president of the Market Technicians Association and was named "guru of the decade" back in 1989 for his prediction of the bull market of the early 1980s and the stockmarket crash of 1987. He runs a consultancy called Elliott Wave International, based in Georgia.

 

Prechter tells the NYT that he now expects a crash akin to the collapse of the South Sea Bubble of 1720: "If I'm right, it will be such a shock that people will be telling their grandkids many years from now 'don't touch stocks'."

 

His misery doesn't end at the stockmarket. Prechter reckons US house prices, which have fallen by 40% in some states, are only about halfway through their fall. He thinks that pretty soon, a US dollar will be worth no more than a Swiss franc and that Europe is in for a spell of deflation.

 

Before anybody jumps off a cliff, it's worth noting that Prechter has been in this mood before. Back in 2002, he published a book called "conquer the crash: you can survive and prosper in a deflationary depression" which warned of imminent catastrophe and was, at best, extremely premature. Even back then, he was dubbed the "king of doom".

 

/see: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/andrew-...seconomy-shares

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That's definitely possible.

But it has gone higher in the meantime, especially if you tag China on at the end of it

I didn't realize it ends 2002 until just now!

Note to self: read the small print.

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Great charts, GTG

But it is hard to see what some of them are.

 

Do you think you could put the symbol at the top of each?

Like: "SPX" or whatever

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One of the comments from that Prechter article:

 

GregoryUK GregoryUK

 

7 Jul 2010, 4:39PM

 

For the Aussie analyst:

 

The break with "reality" occurs about 1985:

US GDP: 4 trillion

DJIA: 1200+-

 

2007

US GDP: 14 trillion

DJIA: 13000

 

GDP up 3.5 DJIA up up 10X

 

I see DJIA at 4000 or just below, what do you say?

Although, I suppose one of the counter-arguments is that US corporations have penetrated foreign markets more today than in 1985, hence US GDP is a less relevant indicator.

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Great charts, GTG

But it is hard to see what some of them are.

 

Do you think you could put the symbol at the top of each?

Like: "SPX" or whatever

 

Thanks DrBubb, I'm pleased you asked that question. As you know it takes a bit of time and effort to make up and post charts, I did these a long with a narrative explaining the charts with possible price targets etc. When I came to post it I got an "authorisation mismatch" error so I clicked on "select all" to save it to my clip board then returned to post it again. To my horror when I pasted to the new window it only reproduced the URL of the last chart at photobucket!! The air was blue I can tell you. It has happened to me quite a few times but this time with my post being quite long and me being a little tired at the time my patience had ran out. I thought sod it I'm not wasting the charts so found just enough patience left to copy the URL's of the charts into the post.

 

I just do not know why this occurs, also I can only use the quick/fast post feature when in Firefox - I've asked on the board if anyone has a solution to this but to no avail. I'm using IE at the moment. Also the images come out very dull for which I've tried remedying this by turning the brightness up very high when exporting the charts from my charting application. I'll make sure in future at the least I'll do similar to what you have done. The last one is Eur/Usd by the way.

 

I was quite excited to do these charts as in particlar I think I've nailed the bottom of primary wave 4 on the dollar index also being confirmed by the ending diagonal on eur/usd. Considering wave five - under EWP - on the index can be a maximum of 831 points -off the top of my head - it is an opportunity for massive profit potential very anyone that wants to get on board. Whats so neet about it is one can take a huge position without the risk of losing much if incorrect, I know I am!

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You'll have to excuse me folks I've had an eyesight problem of the last 24 hours, it's called "ending diagonal" blindness... here's another one on the FTSE100 ETF ISF :)

 

ISF9710.jpg

 

I'm about to go short with SUK2.

 

And another, it's a bit of a backwater stock market this one though :)

 

E-mini S&P500 futures

 

Es9710-1.jpg

 

A beautiful sight - I must be sad :D

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Thanks DrBubb, I'm pleased you asked that question. As you know it takes a bit of time and effort to make up and post charts, I did these a long with a narrative explaining the charts with possible price targets etc. When I came to post it I got an "authorisation mismatch" error so I clicked on "select all" to save it to my clip board then returned to post it again. To my horror when I pasted to the new window it only reproduced the URL of the last chart at photobucket!! The air was blue I can tell you. It has happened to me quite a few times but this time with my post being quite long and me being a little tired at the time my patience had ran out. I thought sod it I'm not wasting the charts so found just enough patience left to copy the URL's of the charts into the post.

Try this:

Post the URLs, and Save

Then, add the labels later, if it allows you to do so.

Or just add them at the bottom, like this

In Order:

GBP

USD

SPX

as an example

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Try this:

Post the URLs, and Save

Then, add the labels later, if it allows you to do so.

Or just add them at the bottom, like this

In Order:

GBP

USD

SPX

as an example

 

Thanks, I'll give that a swing, I'm going over now to post up some charts on the EW gold contract thread.

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Carl Futia on Elliot Wave:

 

Chart

 

Elliott wave theory has become very popular in the wake of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Lots of Elliott wave blogs have sprung up and most of them focus on the U.S. stock market averages.

 

I have mixed feelings about Elliott's wave theory. On the one hand it can sometimes enable one to construct spectacularly correct market forecasts. On the other, it offers too much scope for personal prejudice and bias to influence the wave count. For this latter reason I don't find it much of much use in my day-to-day market activities.

 

In my view the top two Elliott wave interpreters of the last 60 years were Hamilton Bolton and Charles Collins (sadly, both now deceased). They shared one important attitude towards Elliott's theory. Each believed that one should not expect the small details of the price movement to fit the theory exactly. Instead they emphasized the importance of looking only at the big picture, especially if it just jumps out at you from the chart.

 

The chart above this post shows the cash S&P from the start of the current bull market on March of 2009 at the 666 level. I have traced in green the first upward leg of the bull market which divided clearly into a classic, five wave Elliott pattern. Elliott's theory asserts that a five wave movement up from a low such as was seen in March 2009 is never a completed bull market. Instead it will be followed by a three wave corrective movement, and then by at least one more, five wave move up to new highs.

 

The drop from the 1219 level of the April 26, 2010 high subdivides into a classic, three stage, "flat"correction: three smaller waves down to the May 25 low, then three smaller waves up to the June 21 high, and finally a fast, scary movement down to the final low of the correction at 1010. I have traced this wave sequence for you in red.

 

Not only is the wave pattern of this correction exceptionally clear, but the correction ended almost exactly at the .382 Fibonacci retracement of the five wave up leg. This is added evidence that the correction is complete. Further support for this deduction comes from the extreme bearishness of individual investors and the strong bullish divergences shown by the advancing issues oscillators at the July 2 low point.

 

So I think that Elliott's wave theory offers more evidence that new highs for the move up from the March 2009 low lie ahead. The remarkable thing about this analysis is that, despite its simplicity, it is not the view of most of the Elliott wave blogs (exceptions: Caldaro and PUG). The Elliott wavers are bearish, almost to a man. This illustrates how easy it is to fit Elliott's theory to one's own market biases.

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I think he is wrong on this point:

 

The chart above this post shows the cash S&P from the start of the current bull market on March of 2009 at the 666 level. I have traced in green the first upward leg of the bull market which divided clearly into a classic, five wave Elliott pattern. Elliott's theory asserts that a five wave movement up from a low such as was seen in March 2009 is never a completed bull market. Instead it will be followed by a three wave corrective movement, and then by at least one more, five wave move up to new highs.

 

EW assert a five wave move of impulsive waves, which we did not see

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I think he is wrong on this point:

 

 

 

EW assert a five wave move of impulsive waves, which we did not see

 

I have never seen this rule or guideline either but in the interests of self improvement I'd be more than happy to be proved wrong. Trading is a serious business and I'd hope he has actually taken the time to learn EWP before offering a critique. Anyone assessing and offering a critique on a trading method by looking at others charts/counts in the blogsosphere and not learning what the underling considerations are.... well, does n't deserve the time of day IMO.

 

I think what he meant to say is that a single five way corrective impulse can never be regarded as a complete hence there is always a more complex corrective structure to unfold. However, this does not necessarily mean that it will consist of a three corrective waves and a further five wave impulse!

 

Catflap have you seen this rule or guideline or can you point to the page in Frost and Prechters book please.

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Catflap have you seen this rule or guideline or can you point to the page in Frost and Prechters book please.

 

I havn't since I don't use Elliot Wave myself and havn't read any of the above authors books. I think Carl Futia understands Elliot Wave extremely well which is why he has quoted names I have never heard of (Hamilton Bolton and Charles Collins) along with Elliot Wavers who are getting it right in his opinion (Caldaro and PUG). Caldaro is bullish and supposadly has the #1 rated EW blog worldwide......

 

 

 

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