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UK Property - The former HPC addicts' thread

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Where is a good source for rent statistics for the UK. i.e. current trends etc.

 

Thanks

 

 

Allsop's website may help -http:///allsop.co.uk or http://www.rapidinfo.uk.com/

Yields are rising as capital values plummet. With the pauperisation of swathes of the British population ahead

I cant see landlords being able to raise rents much.

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+ I used my Paint program to excerpt the specific part of the Slide

And Voila:

 

18yrcycletc5.jpg

compare: 1976-1994 Cycle in the UK

18yrcycle76zd9.jpg

 

18yrcycle94mi7.jpg

from :

homepageol5.png

 

(I think you can see how useless and silly that HPC "trend line" is in forecasting a cyclical market.

I have been saying this for years. And was tallking about a possible 2010 low almsot 5 years ago.

Since late 2005, I changed that Low forecast to 2010-13, and I think Fred Harrison is now talking

about 2012.)

 

BTW, for those who liked the YouTube video, I would appreciate it if you could post a text comment there.

Link:

Since that will help to build interest in the Video, and also maybe traffic here.

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Good news......for ostriches. :lol:

 

Believe it or not, house prices are going to soar

 

Supply has fallen so far behind demand that an upturn is inevitable, says Graham Norwood

 

Graham Norwood The Observer, Sunday October 5 2008

 

House prices are going to rise again. That may seem a scenario far removed from today's headlines about falling prices and haemorrhaging values. But, according to an influential economics consultancy, prices have to go up for one simple reason - government targets for the minimum number of new homes are just not being met.

 

A year ago, 'targets' were the order of the day. Gordon Brown announced that in England alone there should be between 240,000 and 297,700 homes built annually until 2016, and that, in total, between 2.9 million and 3.5 million new homes should be built by 2020. In 2007 - before the downturn hit the new-build market - some 174,900 homes were completed: still below target but on an upward path from previous years.

 

Yet at the start of autumn 2008, figures for housing starts suggest that this year's total will be only about 110,000, according to the House Builders Association. It predicts 2009 and 2010 figures may well fall to a dismal 55,000. The consequence is that the new-homes industry is imploding. The fewer homes built, the fewer people work in the industry, making the downturn even worse. Similar targets, and shortfalls, exist in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

 

Jim Ward of estate agency Savills predicts new-build levels in England will not have returned to 140,000 per year - scarcely half the government's target - even by 2013. He says: 'Once sites are mothballed, there's inertia in the system as it takes time to rebuild teams and return to the same master-planning position on more complex sites.'

 

Recent measures announced to kick-start elements of the housing market will do nothing to improve building rates. Stamp-duty changes may boost sales but not new building. Allowing housing associations to buy unsold houses and flats mops up stock but does not help overall supply meet demand.

 

The slump in building will not just affect the private sector. Many of the affordable homes made available to key workers and the low-paid are built as a result of so-called 'section 106' deals - that is, arrangements by which developers have to build a number of affordable homes to get an agreement to build private-sector properties. With private sales at a standstill, developers have downed tools on residential property across the UK, so section 106 properties are not being built either, creating a shortage of properties exactly where demand for affordable homes is strongest.

 

That fundamental mismatch of supply and demand, of course, will fuel a new housing boom if the Centre for Economic and Business Research's forecasts are correct. 'The sharp drop in completions will mean higher prices if and when credit markets sort themselves out,' says CEBR senior economist Ben Read. 'The government will be concerned that, with every year that passes, it gets further away from its targets. With developers unlikely to respond quickly when the market bottoms out, prices may recover more quickly than people imagine.'

 

That price rise may be every bit as large as the current price falls. A report published last month by the National Housing Federation suggests the average house price in England will rise 25 per cent by 2013. NHF chief executive David Orr says: 'House prices will increase substantially over the mid to long term. Demand is going up, while the supply of new homes is going down.'

 

cash@observer.co.uk

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Good news......for ostriches. :lol:

 

Just wonder who David Orr thinks is going to fuel this demand going up he talks about?

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http://www.home.co.uk/guides/news/story.ht...ouse_price_fall

 

 

News: IMF Warns Of 30% UK House Price Fall

 

Thu, 09 Oct 08

 

The International Monetary Fund expects UK house prices to fall by as much as 30 per cent.

 

The IMF’s biannual World Economic Outlook report says that house prices in the UK are still overvalued by between 20% and 30%, despite already falling over the last year....

_

 

 

So we are about half way to the bottom? :o

 

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Am watching Yvette Cooper on Newsnight - no doubt it will be accessible on bbc i.

 

Unbelievable, absolutely incredible. I am totally gobsmacked by what she is saying!

 

Basically she's saying that the nationalised banks are to lend at 2007 levels and that she's worried about people whose house prices are falling.

 

There is some f*cking numpty on now from Winkworth blabbing on about stamp duty.

 

These people should be lined up and shot.

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Latest Asking Price report at Home.co.uk here:

 

http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/

 

 

Housing market sentiment, across all regions of England, Wales and Scotland,

tumbled further this month. Asking prices of 200,000 homes on the market were cut

in October (187,000 in September), by an amount on average equal to £20,194.

Deeper cuts in asking prices over coming months are to be expected.

Asking prices fell in 9 of the 9 English regions, Scotland and Wales over the

last month.

 

Blood bath.

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Blood bath.

 

It is bound to get far worse as the big job cuts start

 

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Its getting worse...prices soon in free fall?

 

The UK house price correction is gathering pace on the open market. Vendors are

cutting market house prices more aggressively in all parts of England and Wales in

the knowledge that buyers with cash or mortgage finance are still in very short

supply and may be so for a long time.

 

Check out the graph...

 

 

http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/HAPIndex_DEC08.pdf

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Its getting worse...prices soon in free fall?

...

 

I think that reality is beginning to set in at last.

 

I have heard from a number of friends in the building and estate agent trade that sellers are starting to understand that realistic prices are far lower than expected. News of auction results are starting to filter though into the media and so is a dawning realisation that the market figures are manipulated due to the UK Land Registry only recording private purchases and not auction and commercial purchases. This is also the effect of most mortgage company figures as well as the majority of auction and commercial purchases are not brought with a mortgage but often with a line of credit and then moved to a different vehicle at a later date.

 

Another acquaintance who has a string of rental properties is now trying to off load them but has just got hit, smack between the eyes, with reality. No one wants to buy at what he thought was a fair price and the offers that he has been made would put him in negative equity.

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I think that reality is beginning to set in at last.

 

I have heard from a number of friends in the building and estate agent trade that sellers are starting to understand that realistic prices are far lower than expected. News of auction results are starting to filter though into the media and so is a dawning realisation that the market figures are manipulated due to the UK Land Registry only recording private purchases and not auction and commercial purchases. This is also the effect of most mortgage company figures as well as the majority of auction and commercial purchases are not brought with a mortgage but often with a line of credit and then moved to a different vehicle at a later date.

 

Another acquaintance who has a string of rental properties is now trying to off load them but has just got hit, smack between the eyes, with reality. No one wants to buy at what he thought was a fair price and the offers that he has been made would put him in negative equity.

 

The super-tanker of sentiment has finally turned....

 

I fully expect to see a complete rout now as seller compete with each other with ever deeper price cuts....

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2 things to add

1. American Economists Association met last week and a study of previous global crisis shows a 36% drop from peak to trough in RE prices over 5 years and 54% drop in equity prices in 3 years. UK et al still some way to go. Year 1 2008 = 15% drop.

 

What to invest in now other than Cash?

 

2. What are landlords doing with the cash flow from the recent drops in Int Rates?

Many are on variable rates and should be feeling the benefits of rapidly reducing short term interest servicing costs?

if they repay they increase their Tax gain as their interest bills keep going down even more.

If they invest in RE its way too early and equities might be as well.

Cash? Premium Bonds (prize fund has crashed in size - lonked to Int rates)?

Hold in cash till rates start going up and pay down debt to reduce chance of negative equity?

This is an unuseual cash flow gain to be set off against an unreliable peak valuation of their RE assets. Quid pro quo?

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my local property paper now has very few ads for sales and is more of a to let paper

 

Interestingly out of 132 to let properties 96 are available immediately, 26 some time shortly and 10 do not mention when avaiable.

 

Also a fair few of those that are available now have photos taken in the summer, it must be begining to really hurt a fair few BTL landlords

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Still a lot of of denial out there among sellers IMO.

 

Agreed - still massive denial. Seeing quite a few reductions now though, some with 'no offers' appended by the vendor (unless it's just statement of fact on the part of the EA ;) ).

 

Seems to be an effort to talk up the market again at the moment. Will be interesting to see what happens if and when this wall of denial collapses.

 

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Browsing propertysnake this afternoon I stumbled on a house in my local area that has been reduced 37% from £120k down to £75k. Looking at the listing it seems due a cut to around the £70k mark pretty soon.

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Browsing propertysnake this afternoon I stumbled on a house in my local area that has been reduced 37% from £120k down to £75k. Looking at the listing it seems due a cut to around the £70k mark pretty soon.

 

Question is - is it worth the £70K? :unsure:

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Question is - is it worth the £70K? :unsure:

Probably today but not tomorrow :)

 

You talk about denial, a couple across the road moved out and put their flat on the market in August 2007 at £194,950 and has just recently reduced it to £174,950. Another person in the street who they are friendly with needed to sell reasonably quickly and got £147,000 in November last year. They've put a tenant in their now on the expectation of the market picking up in the summer as a result of the interest rate cuts. Mind you they did n't say which summer, just as well. :D

 

Give it a few more months for the sheeple to see that the interest rate cuts are not working then the panic phase will be in IMO.

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The Nationwide has released it's monthly figures.

 

I loved the comments from the Nationwides chief economist.....

 

I give him points for optimism ;)

 

 

 

'House prices fell by 1.3% in January, according to figures from Nationwide.

 

The average price of a typical house is £150,501, down 16.6% on the same time last year, according to the building society.

 

January saw £2,500 in value shaved off the average home.

 

It is the 15th consecutive month that prices have dropped.

 

But the three-month on three-month rate of change, which is seen as a smoother indicator of short-term trends in prices, improved for the fourth month in a row.

 

The price drop seen during the three months to the end of January was 4%, compared with a fall of 4.2% during the previous three-month period.

 

Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's senior economist, said it was too early to say whether this was the beginning of turnaround in the market.

 

"The increasing level of enquiries suggests that activity levels have a reasonable chance of recovering from their recent lows once an end to the recession is in sight and/or the recent Government interventions lead to an improvement in the availability of credit."

 

The housing market is being hit by a combination of the mortgage shortage, rising unemployment and an expectation among potential buyers that prices still have further to fall.'

 

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