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drbubb

UK Property - The former HPC addicts' thread

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House on the market for £400k, same as two years ago.

 

Sadly for him, he has totally missed the peak.

He should have tried Pds370,000 or whatever and moved the property - too late now

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anecdotal... another forum i'm a member of, YNWA - Liverpool FC related. I've had many discussions on here in the past, and you get the typical spiel. But something has definitely changed.

 

http://www.ynwa.tv/forum/index.php?showtop...31273&st=20

 

A couple of posters who work in the industry (Murph - IFA, big wayne - mortgage advisor) are very scared, and the others are feeding off them.

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http://www.rightmove.co.uk/pdf/p/hpi/press...er2007_0471.pdf

 

Overall fall in asking prices of 2.6%

 

I am sure many of you have seen this already.

 

According to my research, Rightmove uses a mix-adjustment method, so surely the HIP distortion argument they mention is nonsense? A decrease in larger properties ought to be cancelled out?

 

Am I wrong?

 

Looking forward to seeing the reliable indexes in a few month's time.

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/29682764-629d-11...00779fd2ac.html

 

Customers line up to withdraw funds

Well, the big boys in the city do it, while of course advising all their customers, especially the retail side, to stay in for the "long term".

 

I did notice that my bank today, not Northern Rock thankfully, had 2 out of its 3 cash machines cashless. Never seen that before on a Friday afternoon.

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Well, the big boys in the city do it, while of course advising all their customers, especially the retail side, to stay in for the "long term".

 

I did notice that my bank today, not Northern Rock thankfully, had 2 out of its 3 cash machines cashless. Never seen that before on a Friday afternoon.

 

 

Interesting.

And a big, big wake-up call (for the average citizen)

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Landlord has just been round. 1 viewing in 2 months. Says he cant sell, especially now with all the NRK stuff hitting the fan. Did we want to stay on at £100 less a month.

 

Sorry we have other plans. Shame though lovely house and although I am a property bear an absolute rental bargain.

 

400k house anyone for £900 a month?

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LL... Says he cant sell, especially now with all the NRK stuff hitting the fan. Did we want to stay on at £100 less a month.

 

Seems to be alot of this kind of talk at the moment

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1586359.jpg

 

'Housing boom over' as UK bank chaos grows

 

· Economist warns of sharp downturn

· Tory leader attacks Brown over crisis

 

Heather Stewart and Lisa Bachelor

Sunday September 16, 2007 ... The Observer

 

Britain's house price growth will be halved next year as the global financial crisis exacerbates the impact of rising mortgage rates, according to Nationwide, the biggest mortgage lender.

After the dramatic bail-out of high street bank Northern Rock underlined the impact of the American 'sub-prime' mortgage crisis on Britain's financial sector, Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's group economist, said she expected house price inflation to slow to around 3 per cent next year.

 

Thousands of anxious customers queued outside Northern Rock branches for a second day yesterday, ignoring calls for calm from the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, and the bank's management, and sparking fears of a full-blown 'run' on the bank.

 

Speaking to Channel 4 News last night, Darling said he had been assured by the Financial Services Authority that Northern Rock was capable of meeting its financial obligations to its customers.

In the first signs of political fallout from the crisis, David Cameron accused Gordon Brown of failing to rein in public and private borrowing over the last decade, saying the nation's economic growth is based on a 'mountain of debt'. Writing in today's Sunday Telegraph, the Tory leader says: 'This government has presided over a huge expansion of public and private debt without showing awareness of the risks involved.

 

'Though the current crisis may have had its trigger in the United States... under Labour our economic growth has been built on a mountain of debt.'

 

House price growth was running at just below 10 per cent in August, but Nationwide believes it will have dropped to 7 per cent by December and continue slowing throughout next year.

 

The worldwide credit crunch that pushed Northern Rock to the brink of collapse could make a housing market slowdown worse, Earley warned. 'I think all it can do is make it [the market] cooler: that comes through sentiment, and through expectations.'

 

With base interest rates at a six-year high of 5.75 per cent, economists said that the feelgood factor was already evaporating and that the Northern Rock crisis could deal a fresh blow to confidence.

 

/more: http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/sto...2170336,00.html

 

= = =

 

MESSAGE TO THE SHEEPLE: from the media (at last):

You were stupid and greedy. Now you will pay for it!

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Where's all the money come from to keep the game going?

 

"According to Savills, City bonuses accounted for 5.5 billion pounds of buy-to-let house purchases in 2006,

which accounted for almost half of all residential property investment that year."

 

/see: http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUK...mp;pageNumber=2

 

Big Bonuses this year? Maybe not

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Where's all the money come from to keep the game going?

 

"According to Savills, City bonuses accounted for 5.5 billion pounds of buy-to-let house purchases in 2006,

which accounted for almost half of all residential property investment that year."

 

/see: http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUK...mp;pageNumber=2

 

Big Bonuses this year? Maybe not

That 5.5 billion figure is amazing, because you would have to imagine that most of it is managed, I doubt whether many in the city would want to be active landlords. Also, if the city does have any job losses, these amatuer BTL city types might be looking to sell up fast. In fact, regardless of any job losses in the city the realisation that the big profits in UK property are now at an end could see these type of property portfolios quickly sold off as better money making opportunities arise elsewhere.

 

I had to laugh this morning when I heard one of the VI's, representing Nationwide saying that they only expected UK property to go up by 3% next year because of the current turmoil in financial markets. :lol: You could argue that they still don't get it do they, but the reality is they do, they have to continue with the public spin and lies that they have lived off for the last 10 years. They can never admit game over and the queues outside of Northern Rock for the last two days tell you why.

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SELLING in a Falling market - from an HPC thread

 

... the same people who acted as a herd on the way up will do the same on the way down. The real driver for price reductions will be forced sales - repossessions foremost among them. People who have bought recently who get into difficulties with their mortgage payments will end up having their houses sold out from underneath them by nervous banks. These properties then go to auction and will be sold for less than the "market price". ...

 

Right.

Most people will at first think the reductions are temporary and prices will bounce back.

They will be slow to reduce selling prices, and will wind up "chasing the market down", always refusing

to cut their prices enough to get them sold, and hoping for a bounce, which may not come for years.

 

The smart move here, is to recognise reality, cut the price, and get the sale- before the buyer looks

elsewhere. The way to get a sale, is to offer the property at lower-than-last-done to create a perception

in the buyers mind that he is getting bargain. Some buyers will be there: BMV fools, think they are

getting a bargain. But even these buyers will dry up, once they have been burned enough.

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Dr Bubb,

 

What do you think are the ramificationsof the US interest rate cut here in the UK? And what effect do you think that cut will have on our housing market?

 

I'm thinking if we follow suit, our housing market may be saved at the expense o massive inflation.

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Dr Bubb,

 

What do you think are the ramificationsof the US interest rate cut here in the UK? And what effect do you think that cut will have on our housing market?

 

I'm thinking if we follow suit, our housing market may be saved at the expense o massive inflation.

 

In a few words:

Aggressive lending is being tightened. This will remove the marginal buyer who has been using

highly-geared finance to make purchases. And this is the type of speculative buyer who has been

driving the market

 

+ Sentiment has changed, and it isnt easy to change it back

+ Bonuses from the city will be lower

 

These factors are enough to turn a rising market to a falling market, and then the slide will take

on a momentum of its own. These factors are in place no matter what happens to US or UK

rates. And this is exactly why my video starts off saying, "We do not need higher rates to put

the UK property market into reverse."

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Bruno has lost his shirt.

It is obvious in this new video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4Yo84Cv0vc

 

hahaha greetings from USA. Check out my videos and expect what I have on my videos in UK soon. We sneeze and you catch a cold right? Well we have AIDS now. Buckle up :rolleyes:

 

ROFL :)

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Hey guys, new here. Great content on this forum, hopefully I can contribute eventually as my insight builds in my new hobby :D

 

I'm moving back from Canada this year, got a lump of cash to bring back to the UK originally to buy somewhere, now wondering what I should do - leave it in Canada, or take it back to the UK and try and avoid inflation somehow. Certainly won't be buying any property for a while!

 

cheers

Mike

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I'm moving back from Canada this year, got a lump of cash to bring back to the UK originally to buy somewhere, now wondering what I should do - leave it in Canada, ...

 

Most of my investments are in Canadian dollars, or more accurately,

invested in Junior miners, whose quotes are in Canadian dollars

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Some charts:

wages-house-prices-1971-to-2007.gif

repayment_.gif

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