Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

Gold Bulls - "Clawing the Sky" as prices fall

Recommended Posts

Big bag of powder thankyou very much. :)

Is this the kind of powder Federal Reserve Notes decompose into when held for too long?

 

no exposure to gold? can't afford not to buy a little here

at least 50% in gold? can afford to wait

100% in gold? can afford to sell a little :)

Anyone who has a major gold exposure anyway does not have to panic buy at a nominal all time high. Instead, one could for instance look at silver which is far from an all time high. If the panic is too big, however, gold is not expensive, it even is cheap at this nominal all time high.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Is this the kind of powder Federal Reserve Notes decompose into when held for too long?

Nope... the kind which allows you to fire and make a killing when the opportunity presents itself. :)

 

PocketSunTzu.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Nope... the kind which allows you to fire and make a killing when the opportunity presents itself. :)

I know what you mean: they made fires with that stuff in Weimar too:

 

1121_clip_image003.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I know what you mean: they made fires with that stuff in Weimar too:

Hard to compare the two. I doubt very much that the reserve currency of the world is going to go to zero anytime soon when all the other currencies and central banks are practically doing the same thing. A more probable outcome to hyper-inflation of the dollar is hyper-instability of the international system. If this system imploded... money would fly to the centre... namely the dollar. Eventually a re-booting of the system will be required with a restoration of a gold exchange standard.... something I imagine the IMF and central banks are starting to position for now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hard to compare the two. I doubt very much that the reserve currency of the world is going to go to zero anytime soon when all the other currencies and central banks are practically doing the same thing. A more probable outcome to hyper-inflation of the dollar is hyper-instability of the international system. If this system imploded... money would fly to the centre... namely the dollar. Eventually a re-booting of the system will be required with a restoration of a gold exchange standard.... something I imagine the IMF and central banks are starting to position for now.

 

Disagree... although this might just be my interpretation.

 

The IMF is selling is gold stocks - this is not re-positioning for a gold standard.

 

Whether there will be a flight to dollars depends on trigger for the next phase of the crisis. If it's a set of defaults by eastern european nations then yes i can see some dollar strengthening. If however we see continued dollar weakness leading to a bond market collapse i can only see worse in store for the $.

 

The core concerns that led many of us to have great misgivings about the state of the global economy have not been dealt with. Simply put enough money has been printed (i.e. borrowed and put onto deficits) to fix the books enough to make the US appear its out of recession. There is still cause for concern and another crisis will not be far off, but exactly how it plays out depends on the trigger events (imo).

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hard to compare the two. I doubt very much that the reserve currency of the world is going to go to zero anytime soon when all the other currencies and central banks are practically doing the same thing. A more probable outcome to hyper-inflation of the dollar is hyper-instability of the international system. If this system imploded... money would fly to the centre... namely the dollar. Eventually a re-booting of the system will be required with a restoration of a gold exchange standard.... something I imagine the IMF and central banks are starting to position for now.

not on this occassion methinks

 

money would fly to Gold

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Disagree... although this might just be my interpretation.

 

The IMF is selling is gold stocks - this is not re-positioning for a gold standard.

IMF has sold 400 tonnes of gold... it still has in reserve something like eight times that I believe.... thousands of tonnes... and huge foreign reserves. It makes sense for a "super reserve bank" to help national reserve banks develop gold reserves.

 

The core concerns that led many of us to have great misgivings about the state of the global economy have not been dealt with. Simply put enough money has been printed (i.e. borrowed and put onto deficits) to fix the books enough to make the US appear its out of recession. There is still cause for concern and another crisis will not be far off, but exactly how it plays out depends on the trigger events (imo).

 

As you say, it is a matter of interpretation... being no certainties and all that. I do not think the US has escaped a debt/asset/credit deflation so easily. I expect the real economy, as opposed to the financial one, to continue contracting. When this becomes evident, investors will once again deleverage leading to an asset crash.

 

What do you think more probable? Recovery and reflation... or stagnation and deflation [bracket out the increase in base money as it is not getting to real money supply]?

 

Whether there will be a flight to dollars depends on trigger for the next phase of the crisis. If it's a set of defaults by eastern european nations then yes i can see some dollar strengthening. If however we see continued dollar weakness leading to a bond market collapse i can only see worse in store for the $.

 

The yields on bonds are pushing all time lows... and seem to be the go to asset for many foreigners... not to mention Americans who are once again saving [very Japnese behaviour this]

 

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/09/02...ot-for-turning/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
not on this occassion methinks

 

money would fly to Gold

or... on this ocassion to the reserve currency [short covering/deleveraging]

 

and then on the next ocassion to gold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Buy-to-let lasted far longer than anyone expected and a lot of people made small fortunes. Or would have, if they'd got out at the right time. That's the key - and I've seen nothing to suggest that the time to be out of the market isn't a very very long way off for PMs.

 

I find it interesting that for months now we've been reading all the articles, watching the fundamentals, posting rockets, discussing what will send Gold beyond $1000, $1100, $1200 - and when it actually looks like it's happening we all seem stunned by just how aggressive and fast the move up has been.

 

Agree. But…

 

As someone pointed out here the best path is one where we get steady rises with frequent pull-backs. This allows for reasonably predictable and profitable accumulation. The worst path IMHO is going parabolic here followed by collapse. Parabolic here means $600 later and unnecessary drama for us gold bugs.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RH, funny that you can imagine anything going hyper (hyper-deflation, hyper-instability), except for global (hyper-)inflation.

 

Maybe you should have a cup of hyper-tea and think about it one more hyper-time.

 

EDIT: BTW, hyper-tea is as uncommon as hyper-deflation, while hyper-inflation seems to happen all the time (I've just heard some noise out of North Korea yesterday). Anyhoo, I know where I will place my bet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Big bag of powder thankyou very much. :)

 

No, definitely not accumulating here. I think there is a very real risk of a fickle market piling in then piling out of gold here.... first buying for the wrong reasons, then not having the luxury of reason when they sell.

 

imo it really comes down to ones personal risk levels:

 

no exposure to gold? can't afford not to buy a little here

at least 50% in gold? can afford to wait

100% in gold? can afford to sell a little :)

 

Good sensible post RH.But i feel that so many have got abslutely no exposure to gold,when they do where will the price be then?? at that point we can start talking about BUBBLES.!!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Agree. But…

 

As someone pointed out here the best path is one where we get steady rises with frequent pull-backs. This allows for reasonably predictable and profitable accumulation. The worst path IMHO is going parabolic here followed by collapse. Parabolic here means $600 later and unnecessary drama for us gold bugs.

 

Why is any scenario necessarily good or bad it is simply what it is.A collapse in gold price imo to the levels you are talking will only be seen when a clear resolution to this mess has been identified,TPTB already know the end game the question is do YoU.??

Its a shame your avatar isnt walk on water then your answer would be YES.!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I agree. Dr Bubb has been getting alot of stick and from what I see it seems unjustified. It seems all very juvenile, but at times seems to be bordering on quite nasty.

 

Bubb is more than capable of looking after himself it seems to me that a BUBbS BoYS CLUB is forming to score some kind of brownie points with the Good DR.!!

NASTY???? :lol::lol::lol: You need some fresh air and a sense of HUMoUR.

 

image017-1.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Girls, put your handbags down for a second.

 

The US is has a 12T deficit; it has another circa 36T of unfunded liabilities; the tax base has collapsed; it is about to embark on a healthcare plan and escalate the war in Afghanistan costing more Trillions. These bills are unpayable. This is all you need to know. Gold is going much higher.

 

k1292503.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
When gold goes parabolic, then implodes, these people will disappear back into the woodwork. Like the buy-to-let guys in my office. Shameful behaviour.

 

wtf.gif

 

I'll have a double of whatever he is on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
RH, funny that you can imagine anything going hyper (hyper-deflation, hyper-instability), except for global (hyper-)inflation.

 

Maybe you should have a cup of hyper-tea and think about it one more hyper-time.

 

EDIT: BTW, hyper-tea is as uncommon as hyper-deflation, while hyper-inflation seems to happen all the time (I've just heard some noise out of North Korea yesterday). Anyhoo, I know where I will place my bet.

 

GF i have noticed a distinct evolution in your posts i do believe you are developing a real sense of humour. :lol::lol:

Just to show that GEI is not the only place that heated debate takes place on what we believe to be the truth i thought you might enjoy this exchange between 2 RELIGULoUS institutions in the good ole US of A.

 

image001-5.jpg

image002-2.jpg

image003-2.jpg

image004-2.jpg

image005-2.jpg

image006-2.jpg

image007-2.jpg

image008-2.jpg

image009-2.jpg

 

From:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Girls, put your handbags down for a second.

 

The US is has a 12T deficit; it has another circa 36T of unfunded liabilities; the tax base has collapsed; it is about to embark on a healthcare plan and escalate the war in Afghanistan costing more Trillions. These bills are unpayable. This is all you need to know. Gold is going much higher.

 

 

usdebtclock

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
RH, funny that you can imagine anything going hyper (hyper-deflation, hyper-instability), except for global (hyper-)inflation.

 

Maybe you should have a cup of hyper-tea and think about it one more hyper-time.

 

EDIT: BTW, hyper-tea is as uncommon as hyper-deflation, while hyper-inflation seems to happen all the time (I've just heard some noise out of North Korea yesterday). Anyhoo, I know where I will place my bet.

The hyperbole is for the benefit of the hyper-inflationists. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
GF i have noticed a distinct evolution in your posts i do believe you are developing a real sense of humour. :lol::lol:

Just to show that GEI is not the only place that heated debate takes place on what we believe to be the truth i thought you might enjoy this exchange between 2 RELIGULoUS institutions in the good ole US of A.

:lol:

Looks like Catholicism has a better sense of humour compared to the other one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Disagree... although this might just be my interpretation.

 

The IMF is selling is gold stocks - this is not re-positioning for a gold standard.

 

Whether there will be a flight to dollars depends on trigger for the next phase of the crisis. If it's a set of defaults by eastern european nations then yes i can see some dollar strengthening. If however we see continued dollar weakness leading to a bond market collapse i can only see worse in store for the $.

 

The core concerns that led many of us to have great misgivings about the state of the global economy have not been dealt with. Simply put enough money has been printed (i.e. borrowed and put onto deficits) to fix the books enough to make the US appear its out of recession. There is still cause for concern and another crisis will not be far off, but exactly how it plays out depends on the trigger events (imo).

 

"The international supply of two key reserve assets – gold and the U.S. dollar – proved inadequate for supporting the expansion of world trade and financial development that was taking place," a document on the IMF website explains. "Therefore, the international community decided to create a new international reserve asset under the auspices of the IMF."

 

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=112864

 

I am not convinced that, Gold will return as the new standard, but rather an immediate knee-jerk reaction with the current US/UK woes as quick solution safe-haven. Gold is becoming a "mania" where taxi drivers are giving advice to buy gold. I think the precious will perform for a little while longer........but in this modern digital age, I doubt gold will replace Government toilet paper.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×