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drbubb

Gold Bulls - "Clawing the Sky" as prices fall

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Bubb you did make that post that is correct it is also a fact confirmable by anyone who looks through this thread that just about every possible play out was also mentioned that is hardly making a call,that is covering all bases.

 

This is an oppurtunity right here to make a single call that can be judged on next week.What is your call on that for stocks and Gold.??As you call it THE REAL TEST.!!

 

Bubb i note your tacit response to the above,i would love to hear your thoughts on this weeks action in the Gold market as the week draws to a close.

Did the REAL TEST get a pass or fail in your research.

Genuine question no humour attached.

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"The international supply of two key reserve assets – gold and the U.S. dollar – proved inadequate for supporting the expansion of world trade and financial development that was taking place," a document on the IMF website explains. "Therefore, the international community decided to create a new international reserve asset under the auspices of the IMF."

 

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=112864

 

I am not convinced that, Gold will return as the new standard, but rather an immediate knee-jerk reaction with the current US/UK woes as quick solution safe-haven. Gold is becoming a "mania" where taxi drivers are giving advice to buy gold. I think the precious will perform for a little while longer........but in this modern digital age, I doubt gold will replace Government toilet paper.

 

I don't think it will either - gold is not controllable by governments in a global age - it is a free currency that is only mined in discrete quantities. Gold is the bane of central banks presicely because they cannot control it - that is also the reason why in times of monetary crisis it is rushed to as a safe haven free of counterparty risk or (for the most part) government intervention.

 

I can see a situation where a currency is re-imagined. Which is to say that the US dollar and UK pound have been around for a very long time... but... they have been re-imagined or re-valued comparatively recently. For the US it was in the 1970's when the gold standard was stopped for the UK it was a similar time and was the decimalisation of the currency that caused it to change.

 

What i mean is that because fiat currency is an invention, not a tangible good, it can be re-imagined according to a new standard or model relatively quickly.

 

For what it's worth i can still see a future where everyone is 'required' to get a chip for their transactions... much as we all know the kind of world that would create or be a part of i can easily see us moving in that direction. This is why Gold is considered an asset of the free even if it is predominantly owned by major countries and central banks, but the very fact that these institutions own so much just shows that those in power recognise it's importance as a global currency that cannot be manipulated.

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Bubb i note your tacit response to the above,i would love to hear your thoughts on this weeks action in the Gold market as the week draws to a close.

Did the REAL TEST get a pass or fail in your research.

Genuine question no humour attached.

 

It's alll about the Dollar, which is looking VERY strong

 

From DrB's Diary:

Gold/GLD is falling on very heavy volume... and so are gold stocks /GDX

 

So Gold bulls must be thrashing away in the sky again.

 

How long before we take out those Dubai lows?

 

 

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Why have stocks gone up then?

 

 

Because it was 'good news'.

 

Different from dollar strengthening on 'bad news' or 'risk aversion'.

 

Fed spoke about raising rates only when unemployment began to fall. The market believes that point might be a bit nearer now after the non farm payrolls today.

 

 

No guarantee the market will stay that way of course. Good piece by Jack's Wrap last night as to what to look for wrt the reaction to the employment numbers...

 

http://www.swingtradeonline.com/jackswrap/

 

Oh what an interesting day tomorrow will be. A big gap down that runs puts the bulls on the hot seat. Worse yet for the bulls, would be a gap up and reversal red.

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It's alll about the Dollar, which is looking VERY strong

 

From DrB's Diary:

 

This is just a suckers rally to get the shorts to pile in and trip the numpty long stops. Look for new highs soon.

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ah...a prediction here from aliveandkicking.

 

likely to get stronger relative to what, by how much, and over what time period?

 

Most things, quite a bit, by mid next year

 

 

 

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Most things, quite a bit, by mid next year

 

Thanks for the prediction!

 

So, a few questions:

 

I know it is easy to buy dollars - but when I come to sell them will there be problems? Will the dollar dealers say 'Oh I am sorry, I have a block of dollars at the moment and cannot quote you a price at the moment?'

 

Will the price of timber increase when millions of trees are being felled to make new dollars?

 

Will you help me to buy food if your prediction proves wrong?

 

 

Thanks in advance :lol:

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Most things, quite a bit, by mid next year

 

Truth is hard to understand oh great one

 

"All words are part false and part true"

 

From:

 

 

EVIL FREE ZoNE. ;)

HUMoUR GURANTEED :lol:

 

 

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Gold Bulls - "Clawing the Sky" as prices fall

Laser beam rallies generate complacency

====================================

Some bulls here may find themselves "Clawing the sky"

 

I do have some puts on Gold stocks, and lightened up on my GLD call spread in recent days.

But I cannot really claim to be short Gold. The fall could be sharp and scary, as I said yesterday.

 

I am not enjoying this, but do think that it points out the dangers of complacency

 

Down and Down she goes

Where she stops nobody knows.

http://jsmineset.com/2009/12/04/the-tempor...akness-of-gold/

QUOTE

9. Respectfully, this is gold so if you cannot stand the heat in the kitchen then you had better leave. Buying dollars here has no real fundamental basis other than a few days at best.

 

The Pied Piper speaks!

 

Who is in his kitchen?

The gas is full on, and the cook is lighting up a ciggy.

PP sees the smoke and says, "Get ready to eat!"

 

zzzz.gif

 

Looks like Piedy is standing in front of a freight train - As the Hedgies exit Gold, locking in those pre-Xmas profits

 

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On the Gold thread, complacency rules !

 

Freaking out??

 

I think this is the best i've ever felt on a pullback! Gives the longs a chance to buy and the shorts to get the hell out of the way!

 

The U.S creates a few temp jobs/fudges the figures with their birth/death model and the dollar becomes shiny again :blink:

 

Wow!

What a clear statement of complacency!

(Nothing personal in this, but I think this is very dangerous thinking.)

There may be a huge, huge volume of hedgie selling in the days to come.

The ocean may be pushing through the straw in the opposite direction.

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On the Gold thread, complacency rules !

 

 

 

Wow!

What a clear statement of complacency!

(Nothing personal in this, but I think this is very dangerous thinking.)

There may be a huge, huge volume of hedgie selling in the days to come.

The ocean may be pushing through the straw in the opposite direction.

 

just to clarify, you are expecting gold to fall significantly below its current $US 1161.40 next week?

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just to clarify, you are expecting gold to fall significantly below its current $US 1161.40 next week?

 

The Biggest Gold drop in almost 30 years, and you want to BUY it??

 

zzzz.gif

 

Doesnt the heavy volume signal anything for you?

 

xxxh.gif

 

Many are pounding at the exit, while others are rushing out.

Do you want to stand in front of such a nervous and fleeing crowd?

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There is far too much drama here!

 

Anyone with a funking daily MACD indicator would have been anticipating this...

 

 

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There is far too much drama here!

Anyone with a funking daily MACD indicator would have been anticipating this...

 

Right.

I only started one thread in the last few days, entitled: "Is Gold Overvalued?"

 

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:lol: clear as mud.

 

can you at least quantify "quite a bit" and perhaps give some examples of what you are including in "most things"?

 

I agree that 'most things' was confusing and not what i meant.

 

Oil is over valued in this recessionary environment. Oil will rise if economic conditions sufficient to create demand for oil exist otherwise oil will be pumped out of the ground by many producers who need money and sold at whatever prices can be found.

 

USA residential houses will stabilise by mid 2010 and this is a process that is already well underway in many areas as inventories fall and existing houses sell fairly quickly

 

Euro to be under 1.40 and even under 1.25

 

Gold is a hedge against uncertainty. Gold could easily be back under 1000 or 900. Gold will be sold to buy what is needed.

 

just to clarify, you are expecting gold to fall significantly below its current $US 1161.40 next week?

 

Significantly? Quite a bit lower? Or much lower?

 

 

 

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Is the Pied Piper's Party over yet?

Is the March to higher Gold prices still on?

 

gold2m.gif

 

"The magnet underlying gold is at $1156 and below that at $1089" - PP

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The Biggest Gold drop in almost 30 years, and you want to BUY it??

 

Many are pounding at the exit, while others are rushing out.

Do you want to stand in front of such a nervous and fleeing crowd?

 

is it the traders who are rushing out

 

not that i am buying more at the moment but if we get to 1000 - 1050 i will

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There may be a huge, huge volume of hedgie selling in the days to come.

The ocean may be pushing through the straw in the opposite direction.

 

You just don't get it at all. I DON'T CARE. I think Goldfinger is roughly in the same area as me.

 

Gold could drop to $600 in 1 second of trading on Monday and I wouldn't bat an eyelid (other than to buy more PHYSICAL). You allow your trading thoughts to get mixed in with gold - which in neither an investment nor a trade.

 

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You just don't get it at all. I DON'T CARE. I think Goldfinger is roughly in the same area as me.

 

Gold could drop to $600 in 1 second of trading on Monday and I wouldn't bat an eyelid (other than to buy more PHYSICAL). You allow your trading thoughts to get mixed in with gold - which in neither an investment nor a trade.

pretty much +1.

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