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drbubb

Gold Bulls - "Clawing the Sky" as prices fall

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At the other end of the scale we have gold superbull "Fractal Dave" whose articles also appear on Kitco, who is predicting a spectacular ramp by gold, with an objective at $1420 next March, en route to a much higher target in 2011.

WOW! $1420 next March!! That's 16% (!!!) up from the last high. Spectacular!!! :lol: :lol:

 

EDIT: Meanwhile, elsewhere, stocks just rebound by over 50%. Oh, that's just normal. Nothing to see here. :lol: :lol: On NO fundamentals!! :lol:

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Wow. Great stuff that. A balanced argument in the press again.

I'm surprised he doesn't talk abour Pied Pipers, or mention THE Piper by name.

 

I thought you might enjoy that with your morning coffee.

 

I don't think he'd mention the PP thing. That might be heresy. Besides in the long term I think Mr Maund is of the like mind...as I am sure you must be-long term. In the meantime nipping in and out, long and short, ducking and diving is probably profitable for those suitably trained and prepared, such as Mr Maund. For Mr Average it could spell disaster IMO.

 

If you look at JS longterm he has managed his 'flock' extremely well and if they had listened to him they would have been in from the very bottom. If he says 'hold' then I imagine they would be wise to hold. If he says sell then I imagine they would be likely to sell. He did predict the top last time perfectly well and got out with 16Mill (?) Not bad. Same goes this time round, people will listen even more. Of course they may well miss trading opps along the way, but who cares? Why take the risk? There is a certain amount of comfort of having started back in 2001 and being where we are today, disinclined to risk it on a bit of 'paltry' TA which may work/may not work and will only be of comfort to those who have not been strapped in from the start. In any correction he has plenty of 'insulation'. I dont think it's a case of missing THE top (as in the UK property market in 2007) rather missing A trading opportunity. The Top is a ways off yet. Trading to it or simply waiting for it is a matter of style. Each to their own.

 

 

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Good point. I know a guy who starved while waiting 7 minutes to sell his gold on bullion vault then get money out of the cash machine then buy some vegetarian sausages and a small bottle of appletise.

And there was the Canadian digging up his stash one cold night. He slipped and banged his head on a rock.

 

He was found dead of frostbite the next day.

 

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I thought you might enjoy that with your morning coffee.

 

I don't think he'd mention the PP thing. That might be heresy. Besides in the long term I think Mr Maund is of the like mind...as I am sure you must be-long term. In the meantime nipping in and out, long and short, ducking and diving is probably profitable for those suitably trained and prepared, such as Mr Maund. For Mr Average it could spell disaster IMO.

 

If you look at JS longterm he has managed his 'flock' extremely well and if they had listened to him they would have been in from the very bottom. If he says 'hold' then I imagine they would be wise to hold. If he says sell then I imagine they would be likely to sell. He did predict the top last time perfectly well and got out with 16Mill (?) Not bad. Same goes this time round, people will listen even more. Of course they may well miss trading opps along the way, but who cares? Why take the risk? There is a certain amount of comfort of having started back in 2001 and being where we are today, disinclined to risk it on a bit of 'paltry' TA which may work/may not work and will only be of comfort to those who have not been strapped in from the start. In any correction he has plenty of 'insulation'. I dont think it's a case of missing THE top (as in the UK property market in 2007) rather missing A trading opportunity. The Top is a ways off yet. Trading to it or simply waiting for it is a matter of style. Each to their own.

This is actually a very good point. It really depends on one's psychology on how the gold bull market should be played... or not played. Some will think for themselves... some will choose to follow the thoughts of others... most will mix the two in various measures. The essential point is there are different "styles" suiting different personalities. I wish the JS crowd could see it in this tolerant light. :)

 

I've always thought a strident dogmatism, in whatever sphere of life, betrays at heart a shaky faith.

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Another person being dishonest. Gold and silver are easy to store and exchange for a variety of goods and currencies and they have been for thousands of years. Not to understand it is equivalent to not understanding why people save money or specialise in one trade over another or wear jewellery or have sexual intercourse.

 

It is not a straight choice between fiat currency in a complex society or twenty people surviving a holocaust and being smallholders and only bartering. The author of the article knows this well enough. It is these ridiculing comments that turn me off the anti yellow mud arguments.

 

Why do the anti gold people care? If you don't want to hold gold don't bother. What is the use of arguing about it ad infinitum on an internet site? Is there some "Gold is crap Church" that will rubber stamp your entry into heaven if you convert a gold bug?

 

It is almost infinitely tedious.

 

People who lacked the nouse to buy last year or the year before hate to see those who did make money. So whenever gold falls a couple bucks they crow from the sidelines. If you argue with them you are a boring gold nut or a permabull. If you keep quiet you are 'hiding every time there's a price drop'.

 

There's still time to buy gold or silver and get into the game. Price inflation is only just beginning. Fiat is on a cliff edge. But I guess it's easyer to sit on the sidelines and shake your fist at those who are getting rich.

 

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People who lacked the nouse to buy last year or the year before hate to see those who did make money. So whenever gold falls a couple bucks they crow from the sidelines. If you argue with them you are a boring gold nut or a permabull. If you keep quiet you are 'hiding every time there's a price drop'.

 

so true

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People who lacked the nouse to buy last year or the year before hate to see those who did make money. So whenever gold falls a couple bucks they crow from the sidelines. If you argue with them you are a boring gold nut or a permabull. If you keep quiet you are 'hiding every time there's a price drop'.

 

There's still time to buy gold or silver and get into the game. Price inflation is only just beginning. Fiat is on a cliff edge. But I guess it's easyer to sit on the sidelines and shake your fist at those who are getting rich.

 

Thats a generalisation. Many on here myself included hold gold as a core position...however, just because someone says the USD looks like it will rally, does not mean being negative on gold. As expected the USD is moving higher, however a few weeks a go this was seen as suicidal, being negative against gold bulls. I would rather be in a position to gain from either outcome not the either/or one way bet. The way I have seen it is that it was blasphemy to suggest the USD might strengthen. I m playing this from being long USD not shorting gold. If gold goes up all well and good, if not, all well and good.

 

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Yes, I think MM was pointing out that being an "anti-goldbug/ paper bug" is in a way similiar to being a goldbug. Both positions tend to be doctrinaire. A pragmatic approach to currencies, and then with an eye on their fundamentals, is by far the best one for an investor.

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People who lacked the nouse to buy last year or the year before hate to see those who did make money. So whenever gold falls a couple bucks they crow from the sidelines. If you argue with them you are a boring gold nut or a permabull. If you keep quiet you are 'hiding every time there's a price drop'.

 

There's still time to buy gold or silver and get into the game. Price inflation is only just beginning. Fiat is on a cliff edge. But I guess it's easyer to sit on the sidelines and shake your fist at those who are getting rich.

Since when does gold "make" money?

Its just a currency like all the others.

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Amoungst the 16 pages that this thread has expanded to - has there been much said on the thread title relating to: "Let's talk support levels, and bounces here" ?

 

Can I ask the topic starter Dr Bubb / any of a trading persuasion to talk support levels, and bounces here

 

Would be interested to hear of thoughts on support levels & bounces. I know Frizzers previously suggested we would have to pull back to the $1000 level.

 

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Thats a generalisation. Many on here myself included hold gold as a core position...however, just because someone says the USD looks like it will rally, does not mean being negative on gold. As expected the USD is moving higher, however a few weeks a go this was seen as suicidal, being negative against gold bulls. I would rather be in a position to gain from either outcome not the either/or one way bet. The way I have seen it is that it was blasphemy to suggest the USD might strengthen. I m playing this from being long USD not shorting gold. If gold goes up all well and good, if not, all well and good.

 

yes it is a generalisation - but quite apt for some boards (not necessarily this one)

 

fwiw, i agree with you on the dollar short-term, but i guess some take a more macro view if they are not regular traders

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Amoungst the 16 pages that this thread has expanded to - has there been much said on the thread title relating to: "Let's talk support levels, and bounces here" ?

 

Can I ask the topic starter Dr Bubb / any of a trading persuasion to talk support levels, and bounces here

 

Would be interested to hear of thoughts on support levels & bounces. I know Frizzers previously suggested we would have to pull back to the $1000 level.

 

a quick look at support since last years lows....

 

agau161209.gif

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Amoungst the 16 pages that this thread has expanded to - has there been much said on the thread title relating to: "Let's talk support levels, and bounces here" ?

 

Can I ask the topic starter Dr Bubb / any of a trading persuasion to talk support levels, and bounces here

 

Would be interested to hear of thoughts on support levels & bounces. I know Frizzers previously suggested we would have to pull back to the $1000 level.

sure.

post-2287-1260973276_thumb.png

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Amoungst the 16 pages that this thread has expanded to - has there been much said on the thread title relating to: "Let's talk support levels, and bounces here" ?

 

Can I ask the topic starter Dr Bubb / any of a trading persuasion to talk support levels, and bounces here

 

Would be interested to hear of thoughts on support levels & bounces. I know Frizzers previously suggested we would have to pull back to the $1000 level.

Well, the Fed looks determined to support these markets. Investors aren't going to sell off with all that dodgy money printing going on. Inflation down the road has to be a near dead cert and it just doesn't sit right in your stomach to be sitting on a pile of cash. So, one more last frenetic wave up in everything should perhaps do it, oil up, equities up and the gold/silver ratio to 50. Gold to 1300 before consolidating.

 

Then on the other hand, the dollar continues to firm up, and the safety trade is back on as poor economic news hits the media, specifically further bank troubles centring on the debacle in commercial real estate, option arm resets etc. The monetary fog will clear and it will become increasingly obvious that asset prices have been artificially reflated on a hopeless economy that is no way going to support the the financial market which is trying to flog it for all its worth. So everything starts selling off slowly at first, and then quicker as it gains a momentum of its own and the releveraged deleverage once again. Gold here could well go to the 900 handle.

 

Take your pick. :)

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People who lacked the nouse to buy last year or the year before hate to see those who did make money. So whenever gold falls a couple bucks they crow from the sidelines. If you argue with them you are a boring gold nut or a permabull. If you keep quiet you are 'hiding every time there's a price drop'.

 

There's still time to buy gold or silver and get into the game. Price inflation is only just beginning. Fiat is on a cliff edge. But I guess it's easyer to sit on the sidelines and shake your fist at those who are getting rich.

 

What a strange way of thinking!

Those who have a different POV must be jealous.

 

Such belief is rather breath-taking

 

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Amoungst the 16 pages that this thread has expanded to - has there been much said on the thread title relating to: "Let's talk support levels, and bounces here" ?

 

Can I ask the topic starter Dr Bubb / any of a trading persuasion to talk support levels, and bounces here

 

Would be interested to hear of thoughts on support levels & bounces. I know Frizzers previously suggested we would have to pull back to the $1000 level.

 

Happily - from my Master Bubb Diary thread:

 

GOLD'S LADDER : Steps on the Way Down that may trigger Hedge Fund selling ... update

 

xxxy.gif

 

I think a bounce may be due in the next few days, buy after that, we may test Step#1

 

Approximate levels :

== GOLD Support

==: GLD . : x10.2

#1 : $108 : $1,102

#2 : $100 : $1,020

#3 : $ 97. : $ 989

#4 : $ 91. : $ 928

#5 : $ 85. : $ 867

#6 : $ 79. : $ 806

 

GOLD STOCKS, as measured by GDX ... update

 

zzzzc.gif

 

I think we may get a bounce here from #1, but I think after that a drop to #2 or lower is very likely.

 

== GOLD Support

== : GDX . above : ratio : x 24 :

#1 : $47 : $1,102 : 23.4 : $1.128

#2 : $41 : $1,020 : 24.9 : $ 928 .

#3 : $37. : $ 989. : 26.7 : $ 888 .

#4 : $33. : $ 928. : 28.1 : $ 792 .

#5 : $30. : $ 867. : 28.9 : $ 720 .

#6 : $27. : $ 806. : 29.8 : $ 648 .

 

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What a strange way of thinking!

Those who have a different POV must be jealous.

 

Such belief is rather breath-taking

 

A perfect illustration of my point.

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People who lacked the nouse to buy last year or the year before hate to see those who did make money. So whenever gold falls a couple bucks they crow from the sidelines. If you argue with them you are a boring gold nut or a permabull. If you keep quiet you are 'hiding every time there's a price drop'.

 

There's still time to buy gold or silver and get into the game. Price inflation is only just beginning. Fiat is on a cliff edge. But I guess it's easyer to sit on the sidelines and shake your fist at those who are getting rich.

 

That attitude is quite prevalent on HPC; it's rather like a street fight kicking off and the bystanders are frozen with fear.

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A perfect illustration of my point.

 

 

That attitude is quite prevalent on HPC; it's rather like a street fight kicking off and the bystanders are frozen with fear.

Then there's the third group, like myself, actually getting rich, rather than pretending for as long as there are "greater fools", who find the "greater fool" theory mildly hilarious, and something of a waste of effort.

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Then there's the third group, like myself, actually getting rich, rather than pretending for as long as there are "greater fools", who find the "greater fool" theory mildly hilarious, and something of a waste of effort.

 

do you post a record of your trades?

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do you post a record of your trades?

I "leak" the odd one or two that are of academic interest to other people.

 

last one was golds recent 10% wave over the last month, buy sell and timing (circa 20% profit).

Only "naughty" thing I also tend to do is not really notify when I move onto other things (e.g. I'll close a sell position off not because I think the price will rise, but because there is more certainty of volatility elsewhere, which untill I get everything fully up and running means I no longer really pay attention to the future of the previous position.)

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Then there's the third group, like myself, actually getting rich, rather than pretending for as long as there are "greater fools", who find the "greater fool" theory mildly hilarious, and something of a waste of effort.

 

You are not already rich then? Only getting rich, dear, oh dear.

 

loadsamoney460x276.jpg

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You are not already rich then? Only getting rich, dear, oh dear.

 

loadsamoney460x276.jpg

 

this current climate does seem to be showing posters for their true moral worth doesn't it.

 

just to clarify I am not rich in monetary worth, but I am rich in love. 2 fantastic children & a fantastic wife. It doesn't get any better than that imo.

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You are not already rich then? Only getting rich, dear, oh dear.

I concede I do not have enough cash flow to buy the Princess Mariana.

Working my way towards that goal though.

 

Other than that +1 GoM.

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Amoungst the 16 pages that this thread has expanded to - has there been much said on the thread title relating to: "Let's talk support levels, and bounces here" ?

 

Can I ask the topic starter Dr Bubb / any of a trading persuasion to talk support levels, and bounces here

 

Would be interested to hear of thoughts on support levels & bounces. I know Frizzers previously suggested we would have to pull back to the $1000 level.

 

I'm looking for $1050 - 1030, and hoping it brings a decent entry level in GBP

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