romans holiday Posted October 27, 2011 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2011 Silver quickly up to 35. Could get interesting here. A good chance silver still needs more time here to consolidate though. That said, always the chance of missing this trade though not too concerned. It's just a hedging trade. With plenty of core gold and a bit of silver.... I'll never feel like I "missed the bus" should the price continue to climb. Of course, given the aim on this trade is to increase dollars not silver, it wouldn't matter to buy at a higher price; the prime factor here is to give silver some time to find its base. Once it looks well consolidated, buy [AGQ]..... and then sell once it spikes to new levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 17, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2011 Dollar up. Silver down to 31... and continuing to look vulnerable. A good buying/ trading signal for silver could be when gold retraces to its long term trend line, which is around 1650 at the moment. A decent sized Dollar trading account [the "hedge"] still ear-marked to buy silver in the 20s.... in order to sell in the 100s.... may take a good couple of years to reach that target. No rush, could still take a couple more months to consolidate. Still planning on using the double leveraged ETF AGQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 18, 2011 Report Share Posted November 18, 2011 Dollar up. Silver down to 31... and continuing to look vulnerable. A good buying/ trading signal for silver could be when gold retraces to its long term trend line, which is around 1650 at the moment. A decent sized Dollar trading account [the "hedge"] still ear-marked to buy silver in the 20s.... in order to sell in the 100s.... may take a good couple of years to reach that target. No rush, could still take a couple more months to consolidate. Still planning on using the double leveraged ETF AGQ. 1992 - present (log); Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 23, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2011 1992 - present (log); 2008 consolidation in silver took a good 9 odd months. Will look to buy heavily very shortly...in the next month or two as it will match timewise the previous consolidation period. A comparable entry point to the previous dip would be $25 [50% down]. Doubt whether it will go that low, so will look at entering in the upper 20s.... will only need one more step down to meet that target. Obviously, will not be able to get the exact bottom [most who look for that miss it] so expect silver to go a bit lower once it is bought. It's no great concern that silver will go lower in the short term if there's a good chance it will spike towards 100 sometime over the next couple of years. The post-2008 rise, on the log chart, will then be the pattern to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 24, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 Should silver spike down just briefly, a heavy buy order has been placed for AGQ at 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 24, 2011 Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 Hi RH, this is from the "50-ish peak in Silver thread"... Silver futures 2008 - present Looking closer at March 2008, after the sharp rise in silver it corrected 22% within 4 days from the high. If it tags $48.70 and does something similar it would come back to $38. Silver futures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 24, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 Hi RH, this is from the "50-ish peak in Silver thread"... Yep, good call that one. The general pattern between the two silver slumps is quite similiar. Will stick to the chart for this buy/ trade, where around the $25 [50% down] looks a good entry point. Present concerns about the Euro zone could drag silver down that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted November 24, 2011 Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 Im liking the look of low 20's 20-21.5 area... fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 24, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2011 Im liking the look of low 20's 20-21.5 area... fingers crossed Hmmm, I hear what you're saying. If the markets were subject to another bout of forced deleveraging such as a "Lehman's event" then yes, it could easily go that low. The break up of the Euro zone could provide such a catalyst. But will that happen.... and within the next couple of months? Even down to just 25 equates with the 50% slump seen in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted November 26, 2011 Report Share Posted November 26, 2011 Hmmm, I hear what you're saying. If the markets were subject to another bout of forced deleveraging such as a "Lehman's event" then yes, it could easily go that low. The break up of the Euro zone could provide such a catalyst. But will that happen.... and within the next couple of months? Even down to just 25 equates with the 50% slump seen in 2008. Finding yours and P.D's chart musings very interesting, one thing I will say for myself (and no offence to Chazza), if in 2 years it's off to the races with $100 targets etc. Buying anywhere in the mid to high 20's is less important than sweating the small stuff of being in lower. For me only a short term trader need be concerned with a sub 25c entry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted November 27, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2011 Finding yours and P.D's chart musings very interesting, one thing I will say for myself (and no offence to Chazza), if in 2 years it's off to the races with $100 targets etc. Buying anywhere in the mid to high 20's is less important than sweating the small stuff of being in lower. For me only a short term trader need be concerned with a sub 25c entry. Yes, the largish [by most standards] core bullion position bought a few years ago help to make this trade "sweat-free". Because of that core buy and hold position, my aim with this trade is to increase dollars not silver. As you say, if you think bullion is in a long term up trend, one need not trifle too much about the entry point. This trade is only relatively sweat-free. It will be a large trade because my only trade... around 10% of my worth. Why so large? Because I think the risk/ reward ratio is a very good one. If silver spikes to 100 sometime in the next few years... and I use SGQ, and I sell, it would more than double my net worth. The trade is sweat free in terms of "time-free" also. Being a longer term "position" trade, I won't be needing to watch markets 24/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 28, 2011 Report Share Posted November 28, 2011 Should silver spike down just briefly, a heavy buy order has been placed for AGQ at 40. My partner has been making money selling AGQ puts, when SLV approaches the 377d MA I picked up some SLV Jan.$27 calls at $4.40 on Friday, with SLV near $30.27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 1, 2011 Report Share Posted December 1, 2011 You might like this chart, RH: This "fix" might be another 2-day wonder - so suggests VIX The gap down in VIX (and gap up in SPX) looks much like what we saw back in late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 1, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2011 You might like this chart, RH: Yes, certainly no rush to buy here. Silver only up to 32. I'd look at it again if it were to go through 35, which looks like solid resistance. But still think will head below 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 12, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2011 Silver at 31. Would love to see one more push lower into the high 20s. Ideally, another round of forced deleveraging would help the trade, which could see silver down to 25, and gold to 1500. If that did occur, I think they'll bounce back quickly akin to 2008. But not sure if we'll see that kind of slump, so am still targeting the high 20 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 14, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2011 Silver finally down into the 20s, my target buying zone. AGQ down to 46, and still have a buy order on at 40 should silver plunge further. Starting to get an itchy trigger finger, but think I'll hold off for another week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 14, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2011 30/31 looks the new resistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted December 15, 2011 Report Share Posted December 15, 2011 Silver finally down into the 20s, my target buying zone. AGQ down to 46, and still have a buy order on at 40 should silver plunge further. Starting to get an itchy trigger finger, but think I'll hold off for another week or so. LSIL has now twice breached 40, only to scramble back over - that is keeping my itchy fingers in my pockets at the minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 15, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2011 LSIL has now twice breached 40, only to scramble back over - that is keeping my itchy fingers in my pockets at the minute. I looked for that instrument on stockcharts, but couldn't find it. I'm guessing it's similair to AGQ. Are you planning on putting a large trade on? You'd be unbelievably lucky to buy at the exact bottom, and as the saying goes most miss the trade by waiting for the last 5-10%. Silver has shown what she's capable of, and the buying point will probably be when all the news is about how the bull market in metals is over. Best to then ignore the daily news and focus solely on the chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted December 17, 2011 Report Share Posted December 17, 2011 I looked for that instrument on stockcharts, but couldn't find it. I'm guessing it's similair to AGQ. Are you planning on putting a large trade on? You'd be unbelievably lucky to buy at the exact bottom, and as the saying goes most miss the trade by waiting for the last 5-10%. Silver has shown what she's capable of, and the buying point will probably be when all the news is about how the bull market in metals is over. Best to then ignore the daily news and focus solely on the chart. LSIL http://www.etfsecurities.com/csl/lev/etfs_silver_le.asp Not so much waiting for the last 5-10%, more waiting for trend reverse, even if miss first 5-10% of rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 18, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2011 LSIL http://www.etfsecurities.com/csl/lev/etfs_silver_le.asp Not so much waiting for the last 5-10%, more waiting for trend reverse, even if miss first 5-10% of rise. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 28, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2011 Target of 40 hit. Now I'm an all paid up bonafide member of the trading community. Irony is I'm also "all in" on precious metals now. If/ when silver goes through $100, will be quick to sell AGQ back to US dollars. May swap a bit of gold bullion lying about for another last purchase of silver if it gets down to 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted December 29, 2011 Report Share Posted December 29, 2011 May I add that LSIL finally breached 40 support it had been clinging to(and bouncing off), currently levitating around the 35 mark. Most unusually for me, i'm still resisting the urge to jump at the risk/reward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 29, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2011 May I add that LSIL finally breached 40 support it had been clinging to(and bouncing off), currently levitating around the 35 mark. Most unusually for me, i'm still resisting the urge to jump at the risk/reward. Do you have a target in mind? The lower it goes, the more bearish all will be on silver. The risk is you'd never buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 29, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2011 For the record: silver was bought heavily at around 26.50. Plan to sell at 100, which may take a couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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