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Getting the "Crash Course" argument... in 3 easy steps


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I do have a response to this and a few additional thoughts I'd like to air but having trouble currently gaining access to internet during private time. I'm hoping the thread doesn't move on too far by which time my post seems misplaced. Apologies in advance.

Please post your thoughts, and CC them onto DrB's Diary, if they seem to be neglected

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I have certain concerns I’d like to address here if I may regarding how the argument for action on peak energy theories is approached.

 

Firstly I’d like it known that my opinion on peak energy in essence is based upon Malthusian theory, which basically breaks down in it’s purest form to an argument of finite supply (ultimately) of fossil based energy supplies providing energy for an exponentially increasing demand. I was introduced to the idea of peak oil from watching the ‘Tragedy of Suburbia’ presentation given by Kunstler at the TED Talks ( http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/james_ho...s_suburbia.html ) a number of years ago. I have since read several books and watched several presentations that in some way deal with the issue directly, the industry itself or with related scenarios.

 

If we are to seriously create pressure to gain exposure to the theory of peak fossil fuel energy and to be taken seriously then we must also fully consider the argument given by the gainsayers, many of which have I suspect a vested interest in keeping the status quo. In light of this I’ve been trying to read and understand some of counter-argument to peak oil theory. I’m currently reading Robin M. Mills’ ‘The Myth of the Oil Crisis’ ( http://www.praeger.com/catalog/B36498.aspx ) and there are some good arguments made in his book against Peak Oil Theory, especially against the use of Hubbert’s Curve as a prediction method for peaking dates and one that I can honestly see sense in.

 

The problem with Hubbert’s Curve he argues is that there are numerous variables, some which cannot be predicted like technological advances or black swan events, that can distort the rate of production over time and render Hubbert’s Curve as a predictive tool completely unreliable for both date of peak and Estimated Ultimate Recovery. He cites many examples where Hubbert’s Curve is shown to be wanting (Papua New Guinea peaking at 25% of production, Australia 67%, San Joaquin Valley California 72%) and claims that Hubbert’s Curve as a predictive tool has actually only ever been close to the mark when modelled against the total U.S production figures. He then goes on to argue that follower’s using Hubbert’s Curve have leapt to a dangerous and unscientific conclusion that one correct prediction proves a theory when in fact just one incorrect prediction should infact disprove a theory.

 

The above is just one counter-argument and in honesty I’m barely a quarter of the way through the book but I feel an argument for action must be centred on a blend of Malthusian theory, economics and ecological ethics (i.e anti-polution) and perhaps lose the predictive nature of statistical data analysis, or at least try and identify a new, more accurate method of prediction in order to gain some political support. Dr Martenson’s 'Crash Course' presentation went some way towards accomplishing this but we must start by highlighting the possible inaccuracies of the data as a reason to do something, and not as a reason to do nothing. We must also highlight specifically to our own populace the implication that as nett importers of energy we will be first to suffer the consequences, including the economic costs. My fear is that our analysis could also be used, if we’re not careful in how it is presented, by the 10% to secure investment in maintaining the fossil fueled energy supplies rather than any alternatives and we should argue that investing in oil long term is socially damaging and the risk of increased production is a shorter time period between now and peak production, and indeed greater dependance.

 

I attended Dr Martenson’s presentation expecting to hear some solutions from the academic section of the audience but came away with a perception that most were resigned to a direction of ‘preparing for the worst’ rather than suggestions of ways in which the effects of resource depletion can be offset or countered. Little was mentioned in the way of alternative technologies that may reduce demand to at least lengthen the cycle from initial date of production to date of peak and eventually to depletion.

 

I will investigate the Transition Town ideas more fully but what does worry me most is that there is a skills and knowledge shortage with regards to the manufacturing sector. The dawn of the oil age has seen us lose knowledge of specialised hand tools for example which have been replaced with automation and/or machined components. How many children growing up today in the developed world for example know how to knit compared to the generation before? One generation on and I wonder whether any will.

 

I would also mention on this thread the site www.postpeakliving.com . Perhaps Dr. Martenson could contact them with a view to gaining exposure and support for the "Crash Course" promotional work.

 

 

 

 

 

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I have certain concerns I’d like to address here ...

Thanks

This is a good and thoughtful posting that deserves to be read more widely.

 

I am moving this thread back to Main for a day or two.

 

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SteveNetwriter, on his own forum in NZ, has published an interesting response to the article

Link: http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/2619

 

I hope he doesnt mind if I show it here:

===============================

 

I think NZ is a safer place to live, now, and during tough times. We are lucky to have plenty of land, and a low population density. Of all the countries on Earth, I think NZ is one of the best to live if everything literally collapsed.

 

But, in terms of currency, and the economics of the country, NZ is in a very poor position. IMO external debt (debt owed to those outside the country) is more important that internal debt. NZ owes a lot, a major contributor being the money borrowed from abroad to finance mortgages to pump up the housing bubble.

The result is high debt, and the interest flowing out of the country.

It is a net loss for the country, and explains why we're doing so badly.

 

DrewinVegas wrote: ======================

How does the average Joe Bloggs protect the wealth they have?

What changes are informed NZers making in their investment strategies?

===================================

 

I looked around for the answer to that a few years ago, before the credit crunch started.

The only answers I could find were:

1. Gold

2. Silver

3. For a limited period, JPY.

 

I could never convince myself that commodities were a good idea. I couldn't prove it to myself, but I didn't feel that commodities would just explode upwards and keep going, and since then we've seen big crashes. That's because are used. And when the economy collapses, demand drops.

 

In contrast, although gold is classed as a commodity in the literal sense, it is not really a consumed one. It is mainly hoarded.

 

Silver is a bit of a mixture, which is why it dropped more, but it also offers even greater opportunities long-term.

 

The JPY was IMO a pretty perfect bet at the top. The unwinding carry trade was IMO inevitable, and it was 'just' a matter of picking the top. I was a few weeks early

I still think it's got a way to go, back down from this bounce, but it's paper, and I don't feel that comfortable with anything based on paper.

 

If you can my suggestion is:

1. A mortgage free property.

2. Gold and silver.

3. A good store of food and water and essentials.

4. Become friends with local food growers, they may become your lifeline.

5. Hope you don't need #2 or #3

 

I would avoid property as an investment. Prices have been pumped up and IMO must in real terms fall.

 

Michael is a trader, and as such tends to view things differently to the way I do. I tend to look for decade long bull markets. As such I think gold and silver are the best havens for the coming decade, and should not be traded. And again IMO must be real physical.

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SteveNetwriter, on his own forum in NZ, has published an interesting response to the Y-shaped article

Link: http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/2619

 

I hope he doesnt mind if I show it here:

==========================

Excerpt

If you can my suggestion is:

1. A mortgage free property.

2. Gold and silver.

I would avoid property as an investment. Prices have been pumped up and IMO must in real terms fall.

 

Michael is a trader, and as such tends to view things differently to the way I do. I tend to look for decade long bull markets. As such I think gold and silver are the best havens for the coming decade, and should not be traded. And again IMO must be real physical.

 

I want to explain a bit how a trader operates using GLD Calls as a temporary Gold instrument

...

 

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Preparing for a Post Peak Life

 

http://www.postpeakliving.com/preparing-post-peak-life

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Version 2 released October 5, 2009 with new material. References and notes are below the video players.

 

Part 1 — The Story of Oil (20:30) • Part 2 — Rebuttals • Part 3 — Impact and Constructive Response

 

After Watching the Video

If you're interested in learning more or are ready to being preparing, you can:

 

■Enroll in the Start Now Mini Course (look at the sidebar to the right). You will get an email each week for four weeks with instruction and homework for that week. You'll also be subscribed to our newsletter, which is filled with tips and resources you can use, as well as announcements of new courses

■Take one of our preparation courses, including the new eLearning version of The UnCrash Course

■Read the notes below and see for yourself if there is a problem with the video's logic. If you can't find one, you'll probably want to start preparing right away.

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I followed the mini-course from the post peak website and found many of the suggestions were close to what has been discussed here on various threads regarding financial meltdown (the greater threat?) though the mini course also deals a little more with how to adjust your thinking and your observations in preparation.

 

One thing it seems to have missed out is the suggestion of learning as much about the history of your location as possible which is something I'd have thought would be extremely useful. Knowledge of how and why your city, town or village was created, it's past trade history and it's infrastructure may be the difference between just surviving and actually living and could make you as invaluable to your community just as much as your ability to grow food.

 

To this end I'm attempting to contact a local historian to see what knowledge he can pass on over a couple of pints. Hopefully his knowledge will extend to the right kind of information and not just 'important events of the past'.

 

** shrugs ** Regardless, I'm interested in history anyway and will probably enjoy the conversation.

 

Personally I believe the effects of 'peak oil' are still some way off (somewhere between best and worst case predictions of peak) and that the slide will not be as sharp as some alarmists predict so long as Government can actually come up with a coherent sensible policy towards alternatives ...................... and that's where it all falls down of course.

 

 

 

 

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Anyone live near Bath?

There's a Crash Course screening coming up there...

 

Bath, UK showing of CC

QUOTE

Hi everyone,

 

We have got confirmation of the projector and the venue for the showing of CC Parts 2 and 3.

Both to be shown at the Minerva Centre, 8 Combe Park, Bath, doors at 7:15 for 7:30 start. Entry Free, refreshements available for a donation. I will also hope to be selling the CC DVDs copied from the original for £5.

 

Part 2: 9th March

Part 3: 16th March

 

Please come along if you can. Watching the CC is one thing, getting together with people to talk about it takes it to a whole new level.

 

best wishes, Brendan

UNQUOTE / see: http://www.chrismartenson.com/forum/bath-u...0#comment-68420

== ==

 

Silent Reader has a Transition Towns thread going, with an initial focus on East Sussex:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=9266

 

I'll be attending, if anyone else wants to meet up just drop me a note

 

All the best

 

SR

 

 

 

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