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Catflap's Cycle Views - A Rally into Q3. 2010

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Has Catflap stopped posting?

 

It would be interesting to hear his thoughts on this drop

 

I'm still hoping for a bounce today from a low near SPX-1140

I'm sure he'll be back, he's not disappeared on bad terms or anything like that as far as I know

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Relevant here too, I think:

From Tony C:

Another wild day during this correction. The SPX gapped down at the open hitting the OEW pivot at 1041 exactly. This low fully retraces the entire Feb-Apr uptrend and found support at the previous 4th wave of a lesser degree, Major wave 4. After that the market rallied back to the 1058 pivot, stalled for a couple of hours, and then broke through on the upside. Despite the spike down and reversal today the action was still not enough to turn the short term OEW charts positive. Remember the downtrend swing pivot is at SPX 1090. Above is postive, below remains negative. Best to your trading!

 

He also has some interesting comments from yesterday about the 4 year cycle

EXCERPT

the 4-year cycle low occurs at the end of bear markets and in the middle of bull markets. Not at the beginning or continuation of bear markets. If it is going to put in a bottom to the elusive wave C it only has until the end of the year to do so. We expect, however, when the bottom does come in either June or July it will have ended Primary wave II possibly, after a 50% retracement, at the OEW 944 pivot. Then the bull market will resume.

CHART

SPX4year.jpg

 

Link: http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/

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For what its worth, here is an update of the Nasdaq (2008-2010) vs Nikkei (1998-2000) parallel:

 

 

Short term bounce, followed by further drop in June?

 

November 2008 Low = October 1998 Low

 

Picture8-2.png

 

 

 

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Has Catflap stopped posting?

 

It would be interesting to hear his thoughts on this drop

 

I'm still hoping for a bounce today from a low near SPX-1140

 

Just busy with gardening and other things at the moment. The drop caught me off guard because I was so certain of an early May peak - I knew this 13% correction was coming in the FTSE that was equal to the fall between the June and October 2007 peaks and was planning to be holding more cash than I had.

 

Never mind - I've been analysing what happened and working on better systems for timing longer term and short term. Still confident of a final peak in August this year before the bear market resumes - April 2010 is only 13 months off the March 2009 lows for what should be a 17/18 month cyclical bull market.

 

 

Another look at the Baltic Dry Index - have I found something that can predict where the next low on the S&P is going to come, to within 1 day?

 

 

An observation I've made on the last 2 cycles - a BDI peak to the S&P market breadth peak is equal to the BDI bottom to the S&P market breadth bottom. I'll explain:

 

BDI peak March 9, 2009 to S&P peak June 12, 2009 = 3 months and 3 days

 

BDI bottom April 8, 2009 to S&P bottom July 10, 2009 = 3 months and 2 days

 

 

BDI peak June 3, 2009 to S&P peak October 19, 2009 = 4 months and 16 days

 

BDI bottom September 24, 2009 bottom to S&P bottom February 8, 2010 = 4 months and 15 days

 

 

An incredible coincidence?.....

 

Apparently not!......

 

BDI peak March 15, 2010 to S&P peak April 23, 2010 = 39 days or 1 month and 8 days

 

BDI bottom April 12, 2010 to S&P bottom bottom May 20, 2010 = 38 days or 1 month and 8 days

 

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BDI peak March 15, 2010 to S&P peak April 23, 2010 = 39 days or 1 month and 8 days

 

BDI bottom April 12, 2010 to S&P bottom bottom May 20, 2010 = 38 days or 1 month and 8 days

Interesting CF.

A fascinating coincidence, or is there some mechanism driving this?

 

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Hope the trading is going well Ziknik.

 

 

post-3356-1274666021_thumb.pngpost-3356-1274665988_thumb.png

 

Would like to hear others opinions about my working hypothesis that the gold share are destined to break their Oct 2008 lows.

I am a gold bull so this view is NOT want I desire for an outcome, however I am trying to be objective.

First there have been 6 cyclical gold stock bear markets over the past 60 years. These 6 bears have lasted an average of

38 months. (21,29,32,33,55,57months) The high of March 2008 started the 7th bear. Was it really over in 7 short months?

Bear markets need not only depth, but duration. (that's why the 87 crash was not a bear market) Is it realistic to accept the 2008

gold stock plunge of 2008 as such a historical anomaly? Or could we see the Oct 2008 lows violated thus making the 2008 bear

a normal length affair.

 

What really strikes me is the fact that the XAU and HUI have failed to go onto new highs when gold itself has gone onto several new highs.

This seems a MASSIVE non-confirmation. Maybe in fact just a 98% retracement of the decline.

 

We have seen how the gold equities get hammered when the general stock market gets hammered. The XAU would have to decline 63% from

current levels to violate the Oct 2008 lows. Would this be out of the question if the general indexes declined 50%+ which is consistent with

Prechter like scenarios.

 

Please comment on your opinion of this likelihood.

Plunger

 

I don't see gold stocks breaking their 2008 lows which was a panic crash on a 36-year cycle where everything got liquidated quickly. That crash in gold stocks is what sets up the second half of the bull market into a peak that I think will come in Q1 2016 (that's what all my work says anyway).

 

The thing is gold is in a confirmed secular bull market and the previous one lasted around 14 years and the one before that around 6.5 years taking the peak in the Dow in 1929 and 1966 as the theoretical starting point and using Homestake mining's share price peak in February 1936 as a proxy.

 

I havn't looked at the 6 cyclical gold stock bear markets over the past 60 years, but I can only think of one serious cyclical bear market that ocurred from January 1975 to August 1976 (around 18 months) that was within a secular bull market. I suspect the ones being referred to which have been longer have happened in secular gold bear markets like 1980 to 1999 etc.

 

In my opinion, the March 2008 peak was not the start of a new bear - the 2008 lows are what will set up the highs into early 2016 IMO, in the same way as the '87 crash set up the highs into the beginning of 1994.

 

I think it unlikely that a cyclical bear market within a secular bull would last more than 18-months and I do see an 18-month cyclical bear market starting in March 2011 that would take us down into Q3 2012. I expect gold and gold stocks to find an absolute bottom before the general stock market does and think the FTSE/S&P will bottom in something like April/May 2013 (based on my K-wave theory).

 

This scenario in gold is not too dissimilar to the previous gold bull market in the last few years:

 

Peak in January 1975 - peak in March 2011

Low in August 1976 - low in Q3 2012 (18-month correction)

Peak in January 1980 - peak in Q1 2016 (3.5 year mania phase)

 

A peak in early 2016 would make this gold bull market the longest yet at around 16 years.

 

 

All my work is based on HUI and I am long gold mining stocks looking for a peak towards the end of next month (I'll put it here for posterity, but I'm looking for a peak around June 20/21) before a correction and then another move higher into late March 2011 from where I'll be out completely.

 

The new highs that I'm expecting HUI to make between now and early next year will mean the 2008 lows don't get violated again.

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Interesting CF.

A fascinating coincidence, or is there some mechanism driving this?

 

I really don't know - I thought you might have a better idea as you discovered/studied shipping cycles I seem to remember, many years back. Just have to see what it predicts as the next low and see if that fits in with other work.

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All my work is based on HUI and I am long gold mining stocks looking for a peak towards the end of next month (I'll put it here for posterity, but I'm looking for a peak around June 20/21) before a correction and then another move higher into late March 2011 from where I'll be out completely.

 

Do you mean an intermediate top in the HUI in March 2011? Why would you sell the lot after that?

 

 

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Do you mean an intermediate top in the HUI in March 2011? Why would you sell the lot after that?

 

Using Elliot Wave terms then I would say March 2011 would be the end of wave 3 which has been the longest and that HUI/gold will be in a wave 4 correction into Q3 2012 lasting some 18 months. The last leg up is wave 5 which is the mania phase and that could last 3.5 years into early 2016 as indicated in my other post.

 

The reason for selling all my gold stocks after March 2011 is that stockmarkets will already be in a new bear market and I want to lock in profits (something I havn't been good enough at doing). If gold is $1400 to $1600 early next year then it's already getting close to it's inflation adjusted monthly peak in January 1980 (using the tradable monthly average of $675 and not the one day spike of $850) with another 5 years left of the secular bull market to run.

 

Therefore gold must undergo a significant correction like it did from January 1975 to August 1976 and a major low in gold is likely to come in 2012 because like 1976 and 2008, 2012 is another pre-election year in the US where the dollar should strengthen further.

 

*$675 in 1980 adjusted for inflation is around $1750 today.

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Done some more work over the weekend and still believe we will see final highs in late August - that would then be the end of the 17/18 month cyclical bull market from the March 2009 lows. Currently I'm looking for a bounce up into the middle of next week, then some sideways action for a few days before a drop into around June 25 to make the right shoulder of an inverse H&S pattern.

 

Possibly:

 

May 7 left shoulder (low)

May 20-26 head (low)

June 25 right shoulder (low)

 

Symmetry wise, this to me appears a likely outcome and fits in with 'rally from the 4th full moon' obseravtion, ie:

 

March 11, 2009

July 7, 2009

November 2, 2009

February 28, 2010 (right shoulder of an inverse H&S)

June 26, 2010 (right shoulder of an inverse H&S?)

 

* June 26 is also a Bradley Turn Date, but is a Saturday

 

 

My indicators are saying the bottom is in. If this all works out then I think we could rally for 2 months from the lows like the other rallies we've had which takes us into late July, whilst looking to see how overbought the indicators are and if another correction is coming.

 

There is the second of the '2 most important dates' for the Bradley siderograph on August 10, 2010 and it's possible that this could always be where the final top comes in.... or it could be the low from another correction before the end of August projection. The next turn date after that is on September 11, 2010 - the aniversary of 9/11. Then there's the late 1929 peak before the Great Crash and Great Depression which was on September 3, 1929......

 

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This should help push stocks higher

 

 

Corporate Bond Risk Falls on Speculation U.S. to Drive Growth

 

June 03, 2010, 11:37 AM EDT

 

By Kate Haywood

 

June 3 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of insuring against default on European corporate bonds fell on speculation recovery in the U.S. economy will bolster global growth.

 

Credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield ratings dropped 30 basis points to 553, the lowest level in a week, according to Markit Group Ltd. prices. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments declined 7.5 basis points at 147, CMA DataVision prices show.

 

Service industries in the U.S. probably expanded in May at the fastest pace in four years while factory orders rose and firings eased, according to Bloomberg surveys of economists. The Labor Department’s monthly employment report tomorrow is forecast to show payrolls climbed by the most since 1983.

 

“For now it’s all eyes on the positive data out of the U.S. and investors are enjoying basking in its glow,” said Peter Chatwell, a London-based strategist at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank.

 

Stocks rose around the world and the euro rose against the dollar on renewed confidence that a stronger U.S. economy will help contain the fallout of Europe’s sovereign budget deficit crisis.

 

The cost of insuring against losses on Greek government debt dropped 21 basis points to 717, according to CMA. Swaps on Italy declined 11 basis points to 223, Spain fell 12 to 238 and Portugal was 5 basis points lower at 330.

 

Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A basis point on a contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-0...ive-growth.html

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I really don't know - I thought you might have a better idea as you discovered/studied shipping cycles I seem to remember, many years back. Just have to see what it predicts as the next low and see if that fits in with other work.

 

I have an idea what drives shipping (supply and demand) and some investment decisions

"at the top" of the cycle can ruin the market for years, so it has surprised me how people have

taken to using the Baltic Index as a short term trading indicator.

 

My instinct tells me that they may be over-using it, or ascribing excessive "power" to it,

but then maybe I am missing something.

 

Actually, I did write something along similar lines in one of my Manic Swing articles:

(See BOTTOM of page)

 

 

Hmm.

So why is the Materials Index (MXI) so weak then?

I am using it, like you use the Baltic index, as a bellwether or leader.

 

== == == == ==

 

(EXCERPT from Manic Swing #2 article):

 

The Three Big Drivers, and How they drive the global economy

 

To get an clearer understanding of the three influences identified above, and how they will drive prices and the economy in the future, let's look at how they interacted in the recent past:

 

The dominant investment theme of 2007 and 2008 arose from one of the three drivers: that is, commodity buying by China, India, and other emerging countries. They bought commodities to build up their own economies, and also to use them as raw materials for goods they were manufacturing for sale to the world, and especially the West. Perhaps "Dr. Copper" is the best indicator of the multi-year surge in commodity prices. Sometimes called the "commodity with a PhD in economics", Copper is often used as a coincident indicator of the industrial economy. So its price rise shows how copper demand, mostly from growing emerging countries is pressing up against limitations in the supply.

 

1249464798030680400.gif..wti5.gif

 

 

Copper prices started to take off in mid-2004, from near $1.20 per pound. Within two years they had increased more that 3-fold to near $4.00 per pound in mid-2006. From there, Copper showed a 2-year oscillating pattern, as Oil prices caught up. The rise in Crude was quick, once it started. Crude also showed a near-tripling in price from just $51 at the beginning of 2007, to $146 just 19 months later in July 2008. Corn shot up too, rising also about 4x from under $1.80 in late 2005 to $7.50 a bushel in mid-2008. By summer 2008, the prices of most key commodities were near record highs. The global economy was levitating at an unsustainable bubble high.

 

Although it was rarely cited in the mainstream press, I see the Beijing Olympics as an important influence in the commodities story, since some Chinese companies speeded up their ordering and production prior to the event*, so that they would be prepared to slowdown, or even close of their factories, when the Olympics were on. As evidence that this influence mattered, there was a big spike up in Baltic freight rates in Q2 of 2008, no doubt driven partly by aggressive imports into China. The price surge also inspired a stockpiling of commodities on the part of those (in China and elsewhere) who hoped to hedge against - or maybe benefit from - continuing commodity price rises, which did not materialise in the second half of 2008. For example, some corporate energy users, like airlines and shipping companies, bought oil hedges aggressively in spring and summer 2008, to protect from a possible rise to $200, which many people had begun to forecast. Hedging by banks of the oil derivatives they sold to oil users, put strong upwards pressure on oil futures, contributing to the price spike.

 

The inflationary surge was unsustainable, because it was being driven by temporary factors, like stockpiling and China's brief second quarter growth sprint. It was also being undermined by another one of my three "big drivers", the wobbling Western economies...

 

/see: http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2009/1008.html

 

== ==

 

*I will be perhaps the first to note this:

It seems that the World Expo, in Shanghai (albeit a smaller event), seems to had a similar position in timing of the current downswing : ie a Peak in Copper prices preceeded the event by a few weeks.

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I'm still feeling bullish about the FTSE

 

I'm going all in on a long FTSE position :unsure:

 

I don't think we will see new highs. I'm hoping we might see 5,680 (ish)

 

EDIT:This is my biggest ever spread bet btw. I'm going to buy a car with the profits if this one goes my way.

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Small and medium caps (Russ 2k) have been leading this downtrend over past couple of days which is not a good sign. On pretty big breadth too..

 

Maybe if S&P knocks below ~1040 (feb low) we won't even get back up to near the April highs.

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Small and medium caps (Russ 2k) have been leading this downtrend over past couple of days which is not a good sign. On pretty big breadth too..

 

Maybe if S&P knocks below ~1040 (feb low) we won't even get back up to near the April highs.

 

 

Bounced off it a couple of times but above 1050 now. But nothings inconceivable. This is a week to stay nimble i think...

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I'm about to lose my bottle. I'm going to take 80% of my money off the table if I don't see the FTSE climbing soon.

 

EDIT: It's going up! :)

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I'm still feeling bullish about the FTSE

 

I'm going all in on a long FTSE position :unsure:

 

I don't think we will see new highs. I'm hoping we might see 5,680 (ish)

 

EDIT:This is my biggest ever spread bet btw. I'm going to buy a car with the profits if this one goes my way.

 

I think you'll be sitting very pretty - after that massive spike in the Arms Index that I posted on DrBubb's Diary then the low looks to be in on an intra-day basis. S&P posted a nice white candle today with a wick that didn't break last weeks hammer low and the candlestick formation seems to have a nice 'W' look to it. It's also another Bradley turn date on Wednesday which have often been early.

 

I still think we will see new highs because the 17/18 month cyclical bull market start date should be taken from the March 2009 lows, so I'm betting the FTSE will break 6,000 especially if the dollar finally rolls over and there is more upbeat news on earnings growth.

 

I could have bought a car with what I 'made' on the last swing from the February lows - unfortunately I gave most of it back to Mr Market by only being in 30% cash. Was planning to be 60% cash and then shorting the market because I knew this nasty 13% correction was coming - I don't know what's the matter with my sometimes!.... No trading rules glued to my screen, no stops and no discipline. I'm too confident, too lazy, and too greedy it seems...... :blink:

 

Oh and there's my BP shares to talk about too....... at least the gold miners have been going up :)

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I could have bought a car with what I 'made' on the last swing from the February lows - unfortunately I gave most of it back to Mr Market by only being in 30% cash. Was planning to be 60% cash and then shorting the market because I knew this nasty 13% correction was coming - I don't know what's the matter with my sometimes!.... No trading rules glued to my screen, no stops and no discipline. I'm too confident, too lazy, and too greedy it seems...... :blink:

I dont want to brag,

But I could buy at least a car from what I made from my shorts (and GLD profit-taking) yesterday,

and a few more cars from the day before.

 

I actually went to FLAT near the SPY lows, and plan to reload Shorts on a good bounce.

 

I appreciate your comments here, and the ARMs index was one reason I went to flat.

Another was that the stock lows were not confirmed by VIX or heavy volume, so we look set for a bounce now.

 

After an uninspiring performance in second half of 2009, I seem to be back on track with my trading now.

(knock on wood !)

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I dont want to brag,

But I could buy at least a car from what I made from my shorts (and GLD profit-taking) yesterday,

and a few more cars from the day before.

...

You're trading with 6 figure sums. You could have bought the car before you traded anything.

 

Most of us are trading with much smaller amounts and winning enough to buy a car is a big achievement in percentage gain terms.

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I think you'll be sitting very pretty

...

I moved most my stops in to profit positions yesterday and they've been hit this morning.

 

I'm still heavily long but I'm not all-in anymore.

 

I'm not sure if I will pile in again... I'm going to stick a buy order at 4,990

 

EDIT: I've piled some more money in @ 4999.9. I've got a small buy order at 4990 too.

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Stocks, Commodities Jump on Economic Growth Outlook; Euro Gains

June 10, 2010, 4:37 PM EDT

 

 

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks rallied, sending benchmark indexes to their biggest gains in two weeks, after economic reports from China, Japan and Australia showed accelerating growth. The euro strengthened a third day, gold fell and Treasuries extended losses after a 30-year bond sale.

 

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 3 percent to 1,086.84 at 4 p.m. in New York and the MSCI World Index advanced 2.4 percent, the biggest gains since May 27. The euro surged 1.1 percent to $1.2114, while the New Zealand dollar strengthened versus all 16 of its most-traded peers and Australia’s dollar rose against all but the so-called kiwi. Oil climbed to a four- week high. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped 14 basis points to 3.32 percent, the biggest increase since May 27.

 

The largest rise in China exports in six years bolstered confidence the fastest-growing major economy will continue to fuel the global recovery. Japan expanded at an annualized 5 percent rate in the first quarter. Demand for riskier assets also was stoked as the European Central Bank raised its euro- region growth forecast and planned to extend offerings of cash and keep buying government bonds to fight the debt crisis.

 

“China’s export numbers are looking better than expected and the European situation is beginning to stabilize so investors are less worried,” said Michael Holland, who oversees more than $4 billion as chairman of Holland & Co. in New York. “Plus the selloff yesterday didn’t make a lot of economic sense so that set us up for a pop today.”

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-1...euro-gains.html

 

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You're trading with 6 figure sums. You could have bought the car before you traded anything.

Most of us are trading with much smaller amounts and winning enough to buy a car is a big achievement in percentage gain terms.

Just keep winning, and you will get there one day

 

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BEFORE THE BELL: US Stock Futures Higher On Growth Hopes

 

By Steve Goldstein

 

 

U.S. stock futures rose Monday as confidence returned that global growth won't be curtailed by the European debt crisis but BP shares continued to fall.

 

S&P 500 futures rose 7.5 points to 1,092.50 and Nasdaq 100 futures grew 11.75 points to 1,854.20. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 62 points

 

The blue chip Dow industrials closed 2.8% higher last week, to snap a three-period losing run. Despite disappointing U.S. retail sales, a lack of bad news from Europe helped contribute to the advance in equities.

 

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, speaking in Tokyo, said Monday that he expects an Asian-led world economic recovery to continue, and also said he didn't see evidence of a Chinese bubble.

 

"The big picture is that rapid Chinese growth can easily be reconciled with the fundamentals, and so the risk of a sudden slowdown in China derailing the global recovery, while certainly not zero, seems limited," he said, adding he doesn't think the European debt crisis will derail the economic recovery.

 

Data from the euro zone released Monday was positive, with industrial production up 0.8% in April.

 

Global strategists at Nomura said stock markets have overreacted to negative news, noting the credit markets haven't been as volatile.

 

"The coming earnings announcement season should provide the catalyst for equity investors to focus on the value on offer and for equities to recover."

 

However, BP (BP) dropped nearly 4% in premarket trade as the oil giant's board members were due to meet to discuss their dividend payment plans, and as the Obama administration over the weekend called for the firm to set up an independent escrow account to pay claims to those affected by the oil spill.

 

There was some activity on the merger front.

 

France's AXA SA (CS.FR) is in talks to sell its U.K. life insurance arm for $4 billion to Resolution Ltd. (RSL.LN), the companies said.

 

Cablevision Systems Corp. (CVC) is close to buying Bresnan Communications, a broadband provider that is majority-owned by Providence Equity Partners, for $1.3 billion, according to a Bloomberg News report.

 

Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ONXX) may be active after it and partner Bayer AG (BAYRY, BAYN.XE) said a late-stage trial of Nexavar showed the drug wasn't successful in prolonging survival in lung cancer patients.

 

With markets in Australia, China and the Philippines closed, stocks in Asia were generally stronger, with the Nikkei 225 up 1.8% and the Hang Seng up 0.9% in Hong Kong.

 

In late morning trade, the Stoxx Europe 600 climbed 1%.

 

Oil futures rallied past the $75 a barrel mark, while gold futures edged up slightly.

 

The euro also climbed, rising 1% to $1.2232.

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-201006...LEHeadlinesAsia

 

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Europe Industrial Output Rises More Than Forecast

 

June 14, 2010, 5:33 AM EDT

By Simone Meier

 

June 14 (Bloomberg) -- European industrial production increased more than economists forecast in April, led by demand for intermediate goods such as steel and car engines.

 

Output in the economy of the 16 nations using the euro rose 0.8 percent from March, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists had projected a gain of 0.5 percent, the median of 33 estimates in a Bloomberg survey showed. From a year earlier, April production jumped 9.5 percent, the biggest gain since the data started in 1991.

 

Reviving exports are helping to fuel the euro-area economy’s expansion as consumers curb spending. Continental AG, Europe’s second-largest car-parts maker, on June 10 raised its full-year sales forecast. Still, European manufacturing growth slowed in May and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said last week that the euro region may expand at an “uneven pace” this year.

 

“The recovery in the export-sensitive industrial sector has been little affected so far by the region’s fiscal woes,” said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Group in Amsterdam. “Euro-zone industry should continue to benefit from the recovery in global demand, helped by the recent weakening of the euro.”

 

The 16-nation currency has fallen 15 percent against the dollar this year on concern governments’ measures to tackle swollen budget deficits may hamper economic growth in the region. The euro was little changed after the output data, trading at $1.2238 at 10:26 a.m. in London, up 1 percent.

 

Intermediate Goods

 

Production of intermediate goods rose 2.2 percent in April from March, when it gained 1.1 percent, today’s report showed. Output of capital goods such as factory machinery increased 1.1 percent in April, while energy production fell 0.9 percent in the month.

 

Emerging economies are leading a worldwide rebound. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on May 26 that the global economy may grow 4.6 percent this year with China seen expanding more than 11 percent. In India, the economy may grow 8.3 percent in 2010 and Brazil may expand 6.5 percent, the Paris-based group said.

 

Hanover, Germany-based Continental said last week that it expects full-year sales to rise more than 10 percent after business through May was stronger than expected. Paris-based PSA Peugeot Citroen, Europe’s second-largest carmaker, said on June 2 that it aims to achieve stable sales in the region this year.

 

In the 27-member EU, industrial output increased 0.5 percent in the month and 7.8 percent from April 2009, according to today’s report.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-1...t-update2-.html

 

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After an uninspiring performance in second half of 2009, I seem to be back on track with my trading now.

(knock on wood !)

 

Tim Wood maybe? ;) (boom boom!) .... sorry, couldn't resist it.

 

Dow Theory Update - June 11, 2010

 

 

 

 

A new bear market has NOT been confirmed by the Transports which have so far held their February lows, which means we are still in a bullish trend!

 

More here, today:

 

Stock Market Trend: Unchanged

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