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Commander T's Diary

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UK Clothing retailer Debenhams issues profit warning and CFO resigns. http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/02/debenhams-finance-boss-quits-christmas-profit-warning

 

Reading the tea leaves -> The market didn't like the stock in the months leading up to Christmas. Just look at the long down bar in the middle of October, and the small volume spike.

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Not checked but there are always winners and losers at Christmas. Whilst everyone may be on guard, NXT usually do quite well from memory.

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Not checked but there are always winners and losers at Christmas. Whilst everyone may be on guard, NXT usually do quite well from memory.

LOL honestly hadn't checked, but just went off to do so and seen yet another good trading statement and special divi this morning!

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^

 

The LSE:NXT chart looks strong, and it is up 10% in one day - so much so it has not registered yet on the weekly chart. 6,100p a share right now.

 

The volume looks like an inverse of the chart, but no reason to go against the trend, it can keep going as long as it wants to. Volume watchers, might be mindful that the trend maybe coming to an end though at some point in the future but it would be impossible to say when.

 

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^December Stock Challenge finished 15th out of 121. Not amazing but OK..

 

For January 2014 - I will be renaming myself as "Commander T"

Entry details for January;

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Annual Entry for 2014 for the year 2014-2015

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David Cameron in a photo shoot on help to buy in my hometown Southampton!

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2533994/PMs-right-buy-poster-girl-revealed-estate-agent-sold-flat-herself.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

 

History is repeating?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=cURKKTrvNl4

^Not in Southampton but a similar "advert".

 

 

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To add, I would see a breakout from £180,000 (average UK home prices) as a "hot" signal.

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I see a future of big brands becoming very valuable. They call it "Good Will".

 

Going forward no one wants to take risks in creating something new - that is why a lot of films, music, TV are remakes of older versions. Example - Total Recall, etc.

 

I see possibility a new trend of idle money taking over old trusted brands;

 

Suntory of Japan to Buy Maker of Jim Beam


Few spirits are as American as bourbon. But the maker of some of whiskey’s most iconic brands, including Jim Beam and Maker’s Mark, will soon belong to an acquisitive Japanese beverage maker.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/01/13/suntory-of-japan-to-buy-maker-of-jim-beam-for-13-6-billion/?ref=business&_r=1&

 

Perhaps keep an eye on stalwart consumer brand share prices that have moved sideways or done nothing in 10+ years.

 

A comment on that article reads:

 

It's the 80's all over again!

The 80s - a time for merger mania!

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With the housing benefit caps and how they are paid it appears landlords are squealing (Fergus Wilson) and bailing out (See next bit).

 

In my local area, using a Rightmove 1/2 mile serach, I know some of these properties are let out - and now they are bailing out for the new year....

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-42420100.html

£144,950 - not let but I do know it occasionally has a To Let sign outside

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-42420229.html

£150,000 - this is next to the above one, and there are no inside pictures - it is probably let, and it occasionally has a To Let sign outside. I think one landlord owns both of these.

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-40896373.html?premiumA=true

£134,950 - Three bedroom mid-terrace property with off road parking making an ideal investment currently let for 20 months at £675pcm. INVESTORS ONLY

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44403602.html

£150,000 - We are delighted to offer for sale this three bedroom end of terrace which is currently let out for £700 pcm

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44427179.html

£160,000 - A tenanted 3 bedroom house at £775.00pcm & 6% yield. Ideal investor property with long term tenant on a 12 month AST. (this description is on the front page, and not at the link)

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I take not a lot of people know about XRH0, it doesn't come up on some of the free chart/quote packages. XRH0 is traded on the London Stock Exchange.

 

Maybe if one had some "patient" money lying around, tuck £1000 away for 5-10 years. Downside - worst cast it might be worth £500 (with no stop) if Rhodium fell to $500, up side it will be worth £10,000, that might be a good risk/reward ratio. But I don't know WHEN this will happen! With a stop, one could see if the $1000 level holds to improve the risk/reward ratio massively - I think the odds that the $1000 level holds are better than 50/50 but I don't like to call bottoms usually. But do your own research.

 

The physical Rhodium is stored in London and administered by Deustches bank - so there is of course counter party risk, possible liquidity issues, and government comandeerment.

 

Oh and will someone remind us, to short this one on the down side in the next bust cycle! Look how it didn't hold $10,000, 9000, 8000 etc, each potential pivotal point was sliced through.

 

There is a good article on the reasons behind that nasty fall in Rh prices in 2008

 

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2008/08/21/can-one-mans-actions-take-6-billion-in-value-out-o

 

XRH0 had a nice run up of 30% in late December2013 - early January 2014 but then the XRH0 volume dried up and I am concerned about some noticeable price disparities between XRH0 and the physical Kitco prices. Kitco's "sell-buy" spread is big, 10% at present levels, XRH0 can trade with much much lower spread and the fix price can be anywhere within the Kitco spread range. In early January, the XRH0 price shot above Kitco "sell" price by 10 % and shortly after that the volume dried. I think this goes to show that the currrent amount of investors in the Rh market is very low.

 

The industrial demand is not there yet, I think there was a good industrial demand with the introduction of the emissions norms such as Euro3, 4, 5 etc, when lots of new "unused" ounces of Rh needed to be used in cars catalytic converters.

Now, 10-15 years later, recycled Rhodium is fed back into the market and the supply seems to be steady and predictable. i.e. there is much bigger portion of industrial Rh in circulation and therefore there is less dependency on the supply of the "brand new" Rh from South Africa and Russia.

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Thanks for the interesting link - no one could guess that could be a feasible theory into why Rhodium crashed the way that it did!

 

Rhodium currently is at about $1020.

 

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Rhodium currently is at about $1020.

 

Yes, the buy price at Kitco is $1125, sell price $1025

 

XRH0 0.1ouce units are @115.

 

It becomes more common to see the XRH0 price being higher than the one from Kitco. In one extreme situation that disparity was at 10%. I recon it doesn't make any sense to buy ETF if the physical metal is cheaper, unless it is a short term speculative purchase. The good point about XRH0 is that it has never been below the price of 0.1 ounce.

 

so there is of course counter party risk, possible liquidity issues,

@notanewmember or anyone experienced with the ETFs.

 

Can you, please, comment and advise on how to assess the health of the XRH0 and how to spot any possible problems?

 

Many thanks in advance

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Sell out, and Move.

Bank the difference = or put it into Gold.

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so there is of course counter party risk, possible liquidity issues,

@notanewmember or anyone experienced with the ETFs.

 

Can you, please, comment and advise on how to assess the health of the XRH0 and how to spot any possible problems?

 

Many thanks in advance

 

This is from experience, but no advice is intended, check with a financial adviser. I would check the normal volume that is traded each day, and ensure you don't invest so much that it becomes a significant part of that volume if you had to dump all your holding on one day. If liquidity dried up, it just means you may have to sell out in stages over a few days or weeks. I held the silver ETF that was backed by physical during the AIG crash and Financial Crisis. The physical ETFs were OK (but maybe not once they looked in the vaults!?) All non physical ETFs had a value of zero at the time, and people were panicking on the bulletin boards, claiming that they were out of pocket by thousands. The FED came in and bailed AIG out, and the non-physical ETFs were reinstated. You can't judge counter party risk easily, unless it is held in your hand, then it isn't yours. But I think it is unlikely we will get another AIG situation...but who knows.

 

 

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This is a good balanced video I discovered, with Gold in there about ten minutes in - don't sell but buy!;

 

^Hargreaves Lansdown Channel - this might be the only proper channel for UK stock investing.

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Rhodium looks like it could be a buy.

 

Is there anyway to participate by buying a mining co?

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I haven't looked into a Rhodium miner - but that would be a very speculative play! I might have a hunt later.

 

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I put up another video it's more or a laugh than about stocks.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6s3qUPoFHg8

Commander T gets to borrow a Eurofighter plane, but the flight does not go according to plan…
We also have a look at the Indices in flight.

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Rhodium looks like it could be a buy.

 

Is there anyway to participate by buying a mining co?

 

As far as I know, no-one mines rhodium. It's too rare to be mined on its own. It's a by-product of mining Pt and a bit of Rh can be extracted from Nickel production. If I remember correctly then there are 10 mined oz of gold for each 1oz of Pt , and for 10oz of Pt for 1oz of Rh. i.e. the ratio of mined Rh/Au is one to a hundred. The price ratio or Rh/Au fluctuates from 1 to 10 and at present it's @ 0.9, but was as low as 0.7 in mid-December 2013.

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There's an interesting article in a newspaper about the Tory MP telling the young to get up and go and get a job in a coffee shop and work from the bottom, which is reminscent of a similar remark made by Norman Tebbit 1981 after the London riots; 'Get on your bike and find a job'.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2543613/Jobless-Why-not-work-Costa-coffee-Employment-ministers-message-young.html#ixzz2r9hhww00

 

Doesn't history rhyme? We have had London riots not so long ago.

 

Note; at the start of the 80s, it was the start of a major bull market in equities.... despite a deep recession.

 

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The markets appear to be going through a correction.

 

SP500 (hot) is now 1,790, if it breaks 1,780 I become neutral.

 

FTSE ALL SHARE, XX:ASX; (neutral) 3,565, it needs to clear 3,600 to be hot.

 

CRB at $295, needs to clear 320pts to be hot.

 

Gold at $1,270, needs to clear $1,800 to be hot.

 

Bitcoin (neutral), $945, needs to clear $1,200 to be hot

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