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"A new episode is up."

 

Highlights?

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Highlights!

 

EPISODE 35
We talk about the past financial crashes of 1837, 1857, and one of the greatest speculators on Wall Street, Jacob Little. We also talk about the possible trading strategy that Jesse Livermore might have used in the recent commodity boom.

The stocks mentioned; Johnston Press (JPR), Crude Oil ETF (CRUD), JXK (JKX), Cetamin Egypt (CEY), Arian Silver (AGQ), Griffen Mining (GFM),

 

 

----

 

There is some commentary about the VIX also by marketwatch:

 

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Low stock trading volume and volatility are messing with investors’ heads, fogging their view of the stock market. One analyst thinks these doldrums could turn out to be the new norm.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/vix-at-2007-low-is-like-sensory-deprivation-for-stocks-2014-06-08

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(as I posted on Y.T.):

 

"Good one, Com-T.

I like historical parallels - and those glimpses into the past are fascinating.

Will history repeat?: "Some doing quite well. Some not doing well at all... with Runs on the banks, etc.:"

= Unquote =

 

Have you got any charts: US or UK stocks ? ... from that time?

 

If so, maybe you should start a thread on that Time.

 

You may recall that Larry Pesavento think is provides important clues for what is coming

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Okay - maybe I'll set up a thread for you...

(or you can do so later, when you have time)

 

Meantime, here's my chart on

 

GFM.L / Griffin Mining ... update-10yrs : all-Data : 4-years

 

GFM_zpsff076e31.gif

 

An interesting idea at this time in the Gold market - IMO

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Hi Commander,

 

I have added new Navigation Buttons, as the Top of the Webpage:

 

Channels : GE : CT : FBB :

 

"CT" : Links to the Commander T Channel on YouTube

=========

 

Next up maybe?:

Not a new member's Trade Diary

could become:

Commander T's Trade Diary

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I am cruising around the internet, and youtube picking up ideas, and sometimes the videos that flash up that are "recommended" for me are typical of this type. This is generation-z the generation after me who are moving into a debt filled world, and they have to pick up the pieces from the biggest financial crash in recent history. The rich have got richer (I can name one billionaire who has increased his net worth by 5x to $10bn since 2007) and the poor have got poorer, but people mostly seem content and happy. I watched this video, and I don't quite connect, but good on them I say.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CET3S4wu8Nw

Generation-Z

 

If this kind of frivolity can attain 2.4m subscribers, then WOW is all I can say. The INTERNET is now the modern day for of Escapism from the real world.

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Generation-Z

 

If this kind of frivolity can attain 2.4m subscribers, then WOW is all I can say. The INTERNET is now the modern day for of Escapism from the real world.

 

It's Mind-Control.

They are good brain-dead little zombies - who are being led to a darker place.

In this state, they are not worth a bucket of p/ss, except as customers, maybe.

 

See what happens when you try to WAKE people up:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19141

 

I don't know your age, T., but I think if you can reach those folks, or older ones, with your videos,

and awaken them from their slumber - it something wonderful and good

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Yellow Alert

 

The insurgents are 80 miles from Baghdad. I expect Baghdad to fall in the coming days which would be a major blow for the West and Obama. From overhead it isn't a lot as it is just another 80 miles, but it is the last stronghold. I don't believe the market has woken up to this yet.

 

It maybe the West will have to work with the Syrian Government and Bashar al-Assad who is holding out, which would be a major U-turn. Additionally the Kurdish area of Iraq of where the Oil fields are, are still untouched, but this maybe the next target after Baghdad. On Radio 4 a commentator who regularly visits and works in Baghdad, said 85% of Iraq's GDP came from BP, Shell and Glencore --- listed on the London Stock Exchange.

 

Listed Airlines have fallen today, as oil rises. Something we have seen before in recent market history.

 

I expect oil and gold to move significantly higher, and equities to fall back, although I don't have any signals yet, so it is more about watching and waiting. It maybe prudent to raise cash. Volatility in the markets has given us a a clear signal, the VIX has moved away from 11 and back up in to the trading range at 13. We might be moving into stormy waters, time to batten down the hatches for at least the next few weeks.

 

The home builder's have dropped on the back of Mark Carney's slightly hawkish comments at the Mansion House, whilst most people were watching Brazils inaugural football match.

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Yellow Alert

 

It maybe the West will have to work with the Syrian Government and Bashar al-Assad who is holding out, which would be a major U-turn. Additionally the Kurdish area of Iraq of where the Oil fields are, are still untouched, but this maybe the next target after Baghdad. On Radio 4 a commentator who regularly visits and works in Baghdad, said 85% of Iraq's GDP came from BP, Shell and Glencore --- listed on the London Stock Exchange

 

The home builder's have dropped on the back of Mark Carney's slightly hawkish comments at the Mansion House, whilst most people were watching Brazils inaugural football match.

 

It may be the west have to works with the Kurds who sadly have a 270,000 battle hardened army, that are unlikely to yield to a few thousand ISIL guerrillas. That may mean Malaki finally has to do a deal on oil exports/ revenue more inclusive to the Kurds.

 

All the noises out the West suggest he has been too dismissive of minorities and not inclusive enough. Did you know the peshmerga where on the doorstep of Kirkuk last week...... Coincidence hmm maybe. Strange how when it kicked off they just rolled in to Kirkuk and took control of the giant oil refineries to safeguard them, an area they longed regarded as their spiritual home.

 

Bar a few skirmishes the ISIL crew have stayed well clear of the Peshmerga so far. Never mind the likes of BP, This could play nicely into the fortunes of such as Genel, GKP et al operating in Kurdistan. As for the majors, most of their oil comes from the giant fields south of Baghdad.

 

Ah well as you say always the football to let the details get lost in events. Cracking game just on the beeb Dutch master class in counter attacking football to demolish the reigning world champs Spain 5-1!!! The Spanish May have lost the first game in South Africa last time round, but this was a mauling, which suggests their time may be done as a team.

 

All just my opinion of course.

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TW. 103p

BDEV 349p

 

Where do the home builders go from here?

 

If TW. falls past the 100p "level" and the BDEV the "350p" level, then I will be looking more bearish / neutral at the UK home builders. But why would Mark Carney come out and say something about raising interest rates "sooner than the market expects" when the people pulling the strings are property bulls - unless I have got this wrong? Time will tell!

 

 

 

Interest rates: does Mark Carney know something we don't?

What changed between Bank of England governor's May inflation report and his Mansion House speech a month later

http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/jun/17/interest-rates-mark-carney-bank-of-england

 

hawk_and_dove_commission_by_silvercrossfHas the Dove turned to a Hawk?

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More investors plan to overweight commodities: Credit Suisse

 

(Reuters) - More investors plan to ramp up on commodities over the next 12 months after years of pessimism toward the sector, betting that the Iraq conflict will push oil prices higher while other commodities prices advance in volatile trade, a Credit Suisse poll showed on Thursday.

The Swiss bank said it found a favorable view developing toward commodities at a conference in New York this week, when it surveyed 350 investorsicon1.png, including institutions, hedge funds, family offices, mutual funds and corporate firms.

A year ago, the bank said most investors at a similar Crediticon1.png Suisse conference expressed reservations on commodities.

"The majority of attendees continue to be underweight or neutral commodities," the bank said in its latest poll.

"However, when asked 'What do you expect your level of investment to be over the coming 12 months?', 42 percent of respondents said 'overweight,'" Credit Suisse said, up sharply from the 19 percent who expressed such optimism in 2013.

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/26/us-commodities-creditsuisse-idUKKBN0F12UE20140626

26th June 2014

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Hmm.

A good find. But if they wait too long, commodities may have taken off already.

=

"The Belkin Report has recently added a Short position on Bonds.

He is Short Bonds, because he is concerned about rising Inflation (including rising gasoline prices)

And his "best Long trade" is Gold stocks"

- Post#169

I'm watching Inflation indicators, which have historically to Run with Gold

DBA (Agri-fund) versus GLD etc ... update

DBA-etc_zps33c11d95.gif

The LOWS line up rather well !

And a new uptrend seems to be underway

=

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Thanks - I had forgotten about DBA.

 

Here's another commodity chart Vs the Sp500.

 

I haven't got buy signals yet on commodities - it is tempting to dip toe in, but I've got to stick to the signals.

 

uso.PNG

 

^USO - United States Oil Fund. It is generally quite choppy/volatile. I would like it to clear the 40 level, or even better the 50 level.

Chart - http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=uso&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=2277207&style=320&freq=2&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=9&rand=1725395041&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=1&maval=30&lf=2&lf2=1&lf3=0&height=444&width=579&mocktick=1

 

An oil spike caused took the wind out of the Sp500, in 2008.

 

---

 

DBA (Agriculture Fund) I would like it to close above 30 for a two year new high. It has moved a lot in March-February - but I think I can catch it if I keep a close watch!

Chart SP500 Vs DBA http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=dba&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=2572922&style=320&freq=2&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=20&rand=1433557956&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&comp=sp500&ma=1&maval=30&lf=2&lf2=1&lf3=0&height=444&width=579&mocktick=1

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http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/on-the-spot/710/2014-07-02/Has-The-Boat-Left-The-Dock-For-Gold---Marc-Faber

 

^LINK Marc Farber interview - he hasn't been heard in a while. He talks about the rise in billionaires, due to the money printing. At some point they will buy gold. There are only so many pairs of shoes you can own, and only so many London properties!!

 

----

 

Also:

 

http://youtu.be/OMqBMjGpYV4

EPISODE 40
We talk about the getting into the billionaire mindset in the decision making process.

 

----

 

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014.html#.U63Q2rEgI79

The Pitchforks Are Coming… For Us Plutocrats

By NICK HANAUER

July/Aug 2014

 

Billionaires

But let’s speak frankly to each other. I’m not the smartest guy you’ve ever met, or the hardest-working. I was a mediocre student. I’m not technical at all—I can’t write a word of code. What sets me apart, I think, is a tolerance for risk and an intuition about what will happen in the future. Seeing where things are headed is the essence of entrepreneurship. And what do I see in our future now?

I see pitchforks.

 

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The VIX volatility index is at multi-year lows, 10.32pts

 

Historically it has rarely been this low. It could be bullish, thrusting the SP500 past 2000pts which I have been pondering about over the last 3-4 weeks. But do your own research.

 

sp500+vix.PNG

 

What Is the VIX Saying? 4th July 2014

The VIX is either indicating that stocks will rally even higher, or warning that share prices are about to plummet because investors are too complacent in the fifth year of an epic bull market.

http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424053111904544004579650513106185126

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