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Commander T's Diary


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My copy of Minecraft* has arrived, and I will be creating some Minecraft videos about trading the stock market. I don't know if it is going to be popular but I have nothing to lose by trying! Please give me some suggestion on what you would like to be commented in it.

 

The plan is for it to become a weekly or monthly commentary show about trading which I think is an untouched niche. I am going to create some buildings such as a bank, a stock exchange, and some other stuff. I will visit these buildings and just talk about where the market is like how CNBC do it. I have to be careful not to give specific trading advice which is a bit of a bummer. I don't mind sharing this idea because I don't think people who are older are interested in video games. However I believe the best traders are "gamers" because of the competitive, and driven/nerdy attributes that good gamers have. After all trading is the game of all games.

 

I see some very popular channels such as Yogscast and PewDiePew being very popular.

 

There is a also Stampylonghead who concentrates on a much younger audience. His youngest viewer 6 years+ and they tune in all over the world everyday. According to social blade this chap earns some £20-£200K per month?! This is an insane amount of money, but I guess the new economy is the internet which so far is still freer from regulations than the real world. Can you imagine if his programme was created in the real world? There would be CRB checks, various regulations to comply, studio, staff to pay etc.

 

Example of a Stampylonghead programme.

 

*Minecraft is a Lego/building block virtual game which allows you to build anything in a virtual world. The creator "notch", made $100m in 2012 from Minecraft according to Forbes.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXDx8gCoUzw

 

Episode 4 is up, this one is about automation of jobs. I think I will be ending my trading blog which has some 10K visitors over the last few years(illuminatedcapital), and concentrate on this new area. As the dolphins said in Hitch Hikers Guide to the galaxy, "thanks for the fish!"

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The portfolio will end today, and this is how it looks like;

 

Illumin+L1.PNG

 

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Reflection

 

Start date 8th October 2012

End date 16th December 2013.

 

The Lessons learned;

 

*Stick to YOUR trading rules - in the long run you should come out with a +ve gain!

*Trends persist longer than you think - i.e. gold! I thought we would see a clear new all time highs by now.

*Let your profits run, cut your losses short!

*You don't need to fall in love with the stock (actually don't fall in love with stocks) or check the price every minute of the day to make money.

*Patience. Your seeds need time to grow! Some seeds will be bad, but there are always more!

*Never try to call a market top or bottom, just act on price action.

*Don't get cocky, the market will rein you in (i.e. that spell of bad short trades), use probes, and pyramid on profitable positions.

*Keep accurate and honest records with a spreadsheet.

*You'll make money by thinking up your own original ideas, rather than following an idea or tip from a well disguised internet snake oil salesman!

 

I hope everyone enjoyed the updates through the market ups and downs over the year and a quarter. I will be creating a new portfolio on speculationville.blogspot.co.uk and with the videos, I should be able to articulate better why I chose what I did, while having a laugh along the way. But do your own research!

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STOP PRESS STOP PRESS RED HOT NEWS STOP PRESS STOP PRESS

 

JUSTIN BIEBER IS QUITTING!!!!!

 

SHOCK HORROR!

 

LOOK ITS IN THE NEWS http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/music/christmas-comes-early-justin-bieber-announces-retirement-from-music-9012243.html

 

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This is making the headlines in the UK it seems to be more important than Jesus ! Twitter is a hive of activity, and he has become the most searched person on the internet!!

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29th Nov 2013
-------------

Bitcoin $1156 (mtgox.com)

Gold $1241 (Kitco.com)

35 Tulip bulbs £2.49 (diy.com/nav/garden/grow-your-own/bulbs/tulips)


19th Dec 2013
-------------

Bitcoin $619 (mtgox.com)

Gold $1224 (Kitco.com)

35 Tulip bulbs £2.49 (diy.com/nav/garden/grow-your-own/bulbs/tulips)


----

In one month those Tulip bulbs have OUTPERFORMED gold AND Bitcoin!

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txt.PNG

 

Beechcraft nears $1.4bn sale to Textron

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/59b141b0-69a5-11e3-aba3-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2oGpy8gqC

 

I noticed this piece of news and dug up the chart. TEXTRON (the above chart, they also own Cessna airplanes) is set to acquire Beechcraft for $1.4bn. Normally the acquiring business share price drops - but this is an anomaly - Textron has jumped up.

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I've got to jot this down. 10 years ago (about 2004) I moved to BH1 as I started out, and the cheapest rents for a studio flat (the smallest self contained flat) was about £350-400 PCM I rented in the worst area, and it was £350 per month. There weren't that many flats, and it was expensive back then - about 1/4 to 1/3 of my take home pay.

 

Today, there is slightly more supply, and the quality of the decor is better. However the rent is about the same - it is still expensive if you are on low wages and not entitled to benefits.

 

For the record.

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-41099383.html £320 PCM

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-28814466.html £325 PCM

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-34871257.html £350 PCM

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-34475626.html £350 PCM

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-44266403.html £395 PCM

 

Don't confuse with the £300 PCM houseshare offerings - you share a living room, kitchen, and the front door!

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RENTS haven't changed much - How about prices ?

 

I've got to jot this down. 10 years ago (about 2004) I moved to BH1 as I started out, and the cheapest rents for a studio flat (the smallest self contained flat) was about £350-400 PCM I rented in the worst area, and it was £350 per month. There weren't that many flats, and it was expensive back then - about 1/4 to 1/3 of my take home pay.

 

Today, there is slightly more supply, and the quality of the decor is better. However the rent is about the same - it is still expensive if you are on low wages and not entitled to benefits.

 

For the record.

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-41099383.html £320 PCM

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-28814466.html £325 PCM

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-34871257.html £350 PCM

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-34475626.html £350 PCM

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-44266403.html £395 PCM

 

Don't confuse with the £300 PCM houseshare offerings - you share a living room, kitchen, and the front door!

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RENTS haven't changed much - How about prices ?

 

 

 

Good point!

 

I would say marginally lower, I remember that if I wanted to buy, the cheapest was £68K. But I then discovered HPC and that it was very expensive for what it is. I am glad I didn't buy - now I bought a 2 bed semi detached in 2011 when the banks weren't lending. No one bid against me, and it was a distressed sale.

 

Here are some examples of the studio flats for sale now:

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-42480701.html £57,500

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-40394536.html £59,950

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44288450.html £64,950

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41971276.html £65,950

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-25603809.html £65,000

 

 

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The cheapest "house" in BH1 I remember was £180,000. It was completely out of my reach as I was starting out and I had no family help.

 

Now you can pick up "proper houses" for slightly less;

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-28538349.html £169,950

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-40595995.html £169,950

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41461384.html £170,000

 

In ten years rents and homes prices are slightly down to flat - but not "cheap". Japanese style?

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Bournemouth looks loads cheaper than London property

 

 

"RENTS haven't changed much - How about prices ?"

 

I would say marginally lower, I remember that if I wanted to buy, the cheapest was £68K. But I then discovered HPC and that it was very expensive for what it is. I am glad I didn't buy - now I bought a 2 bed semi detached in 2011 when the banks weren't lending. No one bid against me, and it was a distressed sale.

. . .

The cheapest "house" in BH1 I remember was £180,000. It was completely out of my reach as I was starting out and I had no family help.

 

Now you can pick them up "proper houses" for slightly less;

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-28538349.html £169,950

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-40595995.html £169,950

 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41461384.html £170,000

 

In ten years rents and homes prices are slightly down to flat - but not "cheap". Japanese style?

Interesting.

That is cheaper than I might have guessed.

The UK looks very expensive on a Global basis - but maybe this is based on London:

 

LOC. : Price/sm : Rent/mo : R/sm (size) : Yield5078% : RtCost : IncTax : CapGn.: favs
===
H. K. : $20,660 : $6,198 : $51.65 (120) : 3.00% : 2.77% : 12.16% : N /A - : LL
Jap . : $11,466 : $6,341 : $52.84 (120) : 5.53% : 8.51% : 01.70% : 15.0% : LL
Sing. : $17,709 : $4,276 : $35.57 (120) : 2.41% : 4.67% : 15.15% : None? : LL
Thai . : $ 3,282 : $2,065 : $17.20 (120) : 6.29% : 6.89% : 03.80% : 37.0% : LL
Phil . : $ 2,807 : $1,982 : $16.51 (120) : 7.06% : 18.2% : 05.13% : 32.0% : LL
Indo . : $ 2,544 : $1,794 : $14.95 (120) : 7.05% : 26.4% : 20.00% : 20.0% : Neut.
Malay : $ 2,629 : $1,282 : $10.67 (120) : 4.87% : 5.50% : 22.42% : N /A - : Tn
Taiw. : $ 7,112 : $ 1,117 : $09.30 (120) : 1.57% : 12.3% : 20.00% : 20.0% : LL
=====
U K . :#24,252 : #5,078 : #42.24 (120) : 2.09% : 5.03% : 00.00% : 28.0% : LL
U K*.: $39,773 : $8,327 : $69.27 (120) : 2.09% : 5.03% : 00.00% : 28.0% : LL
U S . : $15,284 : $6,553 : $54.64 (120) : 4.29% : 9.07% : 30.00% : 5.00% : Tn
Aus . : $ 8,717 : $3,592 : $35.88 (100) : 4.94% : 7.00% : 11.63% : 45.0% : Neut.
N Z .. : $ 3,559 : $2,856 : $23.79 (120) : 8.02% : 5.11% : 01.74% : N /A - : Neut.
Urug. : $ 2,589 : $1,590 : $13.25 (120) : 6.14% : 14.0% : 10.50% : 12.0% : LL
=====
*Pounds conv. to Dollars at US$1.64 per GBP
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Bournemouth is the Londoner's second home paradise as it has the nicest beaches in the UK. There is normally a Labour or Conservative annual conference at the BIC centre too. Additionally what makes Bournemouth desirable is that it is a retirement destination. People up North sell up and retire in the many bungalows down here for the warmer climate, and lower crime rate.

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Episode 10 - a bubble special!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrwynFUBUqM

 

We have a look a past speculative bubbles such as the South Seas Trading Company, Worldcom, WTI Crude Oil, Silver, Dryships, Baltic Dry Index (BDI), Griffin Mining, and Bitcoin.

 

Thanks for posting it - I think I was one of the very early viewers of the Video

 

Here is a comment from Youtube:

 

G.F.:

I see you come to Bitcoins at the end. Pyramiding of positions can be very dangerous, given the huge volatility, and the difficulties in using Stops in the BTC market. But nevermind, it is a nice summary of Speculative Bubbles over the ages. You could say a bit more about the psychological mania that comes into play. One thing good about Bitcoins is there is no use of debt in gearing positions - and the Fiat Currency alternatives that exist are seen to be deeply flawed.

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Yes, pyramiding is a risky advanced practice if you don't know what you are doing, the price could gap down and there are no buyers if you want to get out.... as it is a immature market and not many people I suppose borrow bitcoins to allow short selling, things could get very disorderly very quickly.

 

Note I won't be trading bitcoins until the big banks release a ETF or I can trade through a regulated exchange. And then it might be revalued in the pence - a share of one bitcoin. Then we might see massive participation by the public.

 

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I hope people are enjoying this mini series!

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