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simonc

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Posts posted by simonc

  1. I agree. And the weather is dreadful.

     

    My sister told me, "You have to find somewhere with better weather. Life is too short."

     

    She's right!

     

    Tis true but where to go?

     

    Personally I can cope with (and ignore) the weather, I'd even be happy to move back to my homeland of Scotland, if only for the peace and quiet of the glens but Mrs Peter and the Wolf is having none of it.

     

    Looks like rural France for us.

     

    Sunshine, fertile land and most importantly the

    leftist (comparatively) lifestyle

    of a republic.

     

    Still stacking and hoping.

  2. U.S. money velocity is at a historic low (for data since 1959). So, all the naysayers and fiat money bugs that think gold can only do well under inflation: at least from a velocity point of view inflationary pressure is at historic lows. Now, the problem is of course that MZM money supply itself is meanwhile going ballistic. So, when money velocity will get back to normal, and then beyond, you will see inflation that will scare the **** out of you. And I think this is when we will get to know the real nature of this gold bull market.

     

    GF, those are great charts.

     

    I've always held the opinion that gold is the PM of choice to hold during a debt deflation which is where I believe we are now, especially following a major credit crisis event.

     

    With zirp and stimuli in various guises, (as you intimate MZM nears exponential proportions) with any uptick in velocity we will surely see a snap back to a high inflationary environment.

     

    At this point we should switch to holding silver which outperforms gold in inflation?

     

    I've been saying for some time; deflation. Then inflation.

     

    I'm not yet convinced of the hyper scenario and I'm pretty convinced deflation (in assets normally financed with credit) could see Japanese style tenacity.

     

    Perhaps we should be trying to monitor velocity and give it a higher priority than CPI or RPI

     

    Thoughts?

  3. The frustrating thing for me is the Gold stocks are still left on the launchpad! mad.gif

     

    Only bright light is that they dont seem to be selling off like the general market

     

    I went all in (gold miners) this morning after sitting on the sidelines since December of last year.

     

    Looks like I may have jumped the gun : (

  4. Do you have to declare ths and pay duty when you bring it back to the uk?

     

    Hi Learner

     

    As far as I am aware goods brought in from within the EU which already have the VAT paid are exempt from additional payment.

     

    Whether this is an accurate assumption or not, quite frankly I don't care.......

     

    .........got to go, that's a knock at the door :huh:

     

     

     

  5. If you know someone in mainland Europe to get delivered to, the big 1kg Koalas etc. are cheaper than the ugly bars IIRC. After a little recount yesterday, I've decided I also will get more silver coins (1 oz) as SHTF money on Monday. I have quite a bit, but seeing how the sovereign debt crisis is playing out textbook-like, HI will come in afew years time. Most people who predicted this crisis have predicted HI too, while people like Bernanke have proven to be absolutely clueless.

     

     

    I always order (albeit infrequently) from CID and get delivered to mainland Europe where I pick up at a later date.

     

    I am again about to order a qty of 1oz SHTF (or indeed my bairn's inheritance) coins and I find myself wondering whether in a SHTF situation one sovereignty's coins would fare better than another's? For eg, I've been buying phillies as they are the cheapest but would maples, libertads or eagles be more 'tradable' than that of a somewhat xenophobic nation's coinage?

     

    Perhaps we should all be buying Pandas?

  6. Just thought i'd post this up as a message from our sponsors :D:D

     

    World Gold Demand Increases 18%, Hits Record High in Dollar Terms

    By Gold World Staff

    Thursday, November 20th, 2008

     

    Smart gold investors aren't ready to throw in the towel yet. Because despite a 25% drop in prices over the past five months, the gold bull market is still healthy and on track. And a recent sharp increase in world gold demand is our proof.

     

    World Gold Demand in a Bull Market

     

    And more of the same here.........

     

    FEARS of the unknown long-term effects from the global financial crisis have sparked a new gold rush.

     

    With retail and wholesale clients around the world stocking up on the precious metal, the Perth Mint has been forced to suspend orders.

     

    As the World Gold Council reported that the dollar demand for gold reached a quarterly record of $US32 billion ($50.73 billion) in the third quarter, industry insiders said the race to secure physical gold had reached an intensity that had never been witnessed before.

     

    From: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/busin...337-643,00.html

     

    Oh what to do? ......buy now or wait??

     

  7. Colloidal silver

     

    Silver is a very good anti-biotic but don't over do it, have a look at the Blue Man

     

    Some years ago I had a fair bit of plastic surgery.

     

    The tissue transplants kept breaking down (granulation IIRC).

     

    I was given a stick (bit like lip salve) of Silver Nitrate and applied this myself whenever I noticed things going a bit wrong.

     

    Amazing results, the skin appeared to heal overnight.

     

    A fascinating substance indeed!

     

  8. Is that the wrong link? On the video the interviewee expects Gold prices to double in short order. Even the precis says: "He tells CNBC's Maura Fogarty & Rebecca Meehan that if the paper market collapses, gold prices may double very quickly."

     

    No It's the right link.

     

    I thought he said "gold prices may half very quickly", but no, he said "double very quickly"

     

    Rebecca from Europe had me mesmerised so I wasn't really listening. ;)

     

     

  9. http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/ar...9a-6a18b7f7809a

     

    It's all over for gold :(

     

    Or is it just that UBS have offloaded all theirs to cover margin calls ;)

     

     

    Gold's Bull Market Could End Its Long Run This Year - UBS

     

    SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--UBS says that gold's bull market could end its impressive run as early as this year.

     

    "While you are likely to hear a lot of bullish commentary on gold in the next few days we warn you that there are some fundamental reasons the market could turn bearish." said Allen Sheals, Executive Director of the Client Solutions Group at UBS.

     

    UBS cited evidence that the jewelry market is weak, continued central bank selling of gold - implying that the banks think it is expensive - and the lack of any direction from hedging and dehedging activity.

     

    "Demand destruction is now happening in the jewelry market." said Sheals, speaking at a commodities conference in Singapore.

     

    UBS also said there is anecdotal evidence that scrap supply is starting to become a bearish factor for gold, although it did not offer any specific data.

     

    Sheals said sales from European central banks are likely to outweigh any purchases by central banks from Asia or oil producing nations.

     

    "Going forward on a net basis there is going to be plenty of selling from the central banks," said Sheals.

     

    Dehedging activity is unlikely to offer support to the gold market going forward as it has in the past few years, said Sheals.

     

    "Producer dehedging is now all but over."

     

    Sheals added that strong investment flows from hedge funds, through ETFs and through commodity index funds, though supportive, are exactly what you would expect when the market is so elevated.

     

    Another supportive factor identified was private investment flows into allocated holdings and physical bullion, but Sheals suggested the very nature of these flows made them hard to quantify.

     

    He acknowledged that buying of gold as an inflation hedge continued to be a strong bullish driver, but noted that central bank action to fight inflation could quickly turn the inflation outlook into a negative factor for bullion.

     

    UBS did not provide a specific downside target for gold but Sheals said their overall view was that the current level just above $930 a troy ounce was likely to be unsustainable.

  10. Ooh ! Good thread. I'm an engineer and successfully hide my arty interests under a philistine bushel. Of course, thankfully, this allows me to never understand some of the high priced art out there.

     

    I occasionally buy originals and often several of the same artist, so, I'll have a mini collection. I'm currently liking Rosie Scott, have bought a few and will buy some more. I just like them and like the gold coins, I hope I'll never have to sell but pass them on outside of any government claws.

     

    What about other art, such as objects, vases etc. Lovely to have around but some of the antique Moorecroft pottery I bought in the late 80's is barely worth any more now - despite high expectations.

    Got to be careful or we'll end up like the BBC's Antiques Roadshow.

     

    edit. spelling

     

    Are you sure about that?

     

    I bought 2 vases and one bowl at Montrose auction house in 1987 (ish). They went under the hammer as a single lot and I paid £800.

    That was a substantial wedge back then. I remember my car at the time was an Austin Allegro which cost me £50, so thay puts things in perspective.

     

    I haven't had them valued but they are a popular pomegranate design and being a "set" should fetch a premium.

    Individual pieces of a similar size sell for around £800 each.

     

    I'd go along with the "only buy what you like" advice though.

     

     

  11. I think BV is an extremely good service, and any gold I store there is possibly safer than in a home or a bank. There are certain risks, like confiscation or capital flow restrictions etc. But there are also certain risks if you store bullion privately. I use BV, and I use other services as well.

     

    Cheers GF

  12. I think that deserves being quoted on here (in case it disappears)

     

    I take it that Adrian's outburst doesn't convince some posters here?

     

    Is a strict "under the mattress" policy the only way forward with PMs in these uncertain times

     

    I believe GF has complete faith with BV or have I got that wrong?

     

    Peter

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