cranberryDog46

it seems he's predicting a mid cycle recession in 2019 but house prices to continue to rise until 2026?

Economists Explain Why Our Economy Crashes Every 18 Years

so if i wanted to profit from the 2019 midcycle recession what would be the positions to take,

given the government and financial institutions seem determined to prevent true price discovery whatever the cost to the peons go long on the ftse?

i guess we had some kind of muted bottom around 2009

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=london&all=1

so that would only put us 7 years into Freds 18 year cycle.

so Fred Harrison predicting boom in USA and bust in UK over next two years,

wouldn't that be unusual, I thought the two economies were very closely correlated?

Questions I have about investing in apartments are:

How you protect yourself from predatory service charge increases?

Does the time limited nature of the lease erode the value of your capital?

thank you,

I will study

how would I manage it if something went wrong,

fly to philly stay in hotel?

think it's out of my league.

the 11% yield is Philly only,

5.5 - 6% still acheveable in UK

I've never even owned a house, how could I make first investment philly?

I don't have the resources or know how to do international so would be in UK,

ok, so the 11% is yield on property.

I have some capital which is currently evaporating.

Don't see what else to do with it other than BTL.

yield will probably only be 4% after upkeep but you still have value of the asset.

How are you getting 11% pre tax?

just one later thought - we are now transitioning into a truly negative interest rate environment, and i mean nominally negative, not just negative 'real' IR's.

 

Today I read that, for the first time ever recorded, some corporate bonds (Nestle) hit a negative yield! This negative nominal rate at some point will trigger the pass-the-parcel money bomb! In this negative-gravity world, it pays to be a borrower. Pass-the-parcel, because if you are a retail bank caught with an overnight surplus deposit at the Central Bank, you are charged for it. So there is an incentive to make sure you don't get stuck with the money overnight.

 

In Denmark I read that there now exists a real retail mortgage which pays you to borrow. Think about that; that in itself should get the money velocity going!

 

I think the CB's should be very worried about these developments. I think they are terrified! And that is why I believe they (the CB's) are talking about raising rates. They know however that this is a last resort and if they do raise rates, it will be by a tiny amount to act as a warning.

 

Any significant rate rises will make the national debts and in particular the national deficits absolutely unmanageable. The printing will have to restart to cover the interest payments.

 

I think i've had too much wine. My brain's jumping around too much!

so holding cash a bad idea?

why do you think there is potential for profit in silver CMJ?

cameron said he was thinking of ending help to buy to stop prices getting out of control

osbourne said help to buy would not increase prices

seems all it has done is make things even harder for people who want to buy a home, benefiting the older generation and landlords at the expense of the young.

"We need a distinction between housing policy and mortgage policy"

I don't think there has been a housing policy in the UK since 1979

interestingly it was the normans who brought the money lenders back into the country after they'd been kicked out by the saxons

we're all palestinians/saxons now

convert the palaces to council housing,

force the royals to work in them as cleaners, groundsmen etc

it's not just BTL though Jake.

as far as I understand it MPs get the interest on their mortgage paid on at least one home from expenses..

this means they are effectively getting a free go at the casino and have a clear and unambiguous interest in rising house prices, and therefore constrained supply and overpopulation

sorry Jake but until we have a system that aligns the financial interests of MPs with the financial and social interests of the people they will never represent us.

Benefits cheats are not parasites they are just making a decision not to be a slave. Of course the slaves hate them and are encouraged to do so by the media which represents the interests of the real parasites.

morally I know it's wrong but we live in a parasitical casino economy and if I could have a life of leisure living like a parasite on the hard work of others I would

Why not stop UK BTLers doing the same thing?

because many MPs are BTL

I have no idea where this money is coming from. It seems the more jobs that are cut, prices just keep going up.

population growing by 300k a year.

get a btl mortgage and rent house to multiple wage earning adults.

english working class completely disposesed - the palestinians of europe

when's the election?

Khy.

The smart money that already holds $ sees a fire sale in UK real estate fuelling a further increase in London prices.

why does a fire sale cause London prices to rise?

do you plan to rotate out of metals at some point GF or just hold forever?