Compounded
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Posts posted by Compounded
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A drop to $680 would match the fall seen in 1974-76
BTW last couple of pages have been excellent.
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When I started the gold thread(s) back when the Great Banning over at the madhouse HPC took place, I wanted this to become a thread on gold fundamentals and relationships to other assets like houses.
IMO, trading gold is quite dangerous and I would like to encourage everyone to rather follow an accumulating buy & hold strategy.[/quote
By having an understanding those fundamentals I have the confidence to hold through dips that are predicted to become much more extreme, I know I would have fear of missing out on a big rise and would therefore be a poor trader - guess its knowing my limits.
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FTSE -8.57% and Dow Jones down 3.95%, it will be interesting how gold reacts. At least GB saved the world for 24 hours, good on him.
Anecdotal
People at work today genuinely seem to feel it's all sorted out, a big change of mood.
I said nothing.
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Surely I come first with my gold selling event?
Mate compared to the average man you are a genius.
You have gold and (I think) no debt.
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It becomes patently clear to me that I don't understand any of this.
The various NS&I savings vehicles are looking more appealing all the time...
Volatility has been predicted to be massive as the system begins it's collapse - it makes sense if you think about it.
If someone is facing margin call or similar squeeze they sell the most liquid asset - gold IMO will be sold and prices affected.
NS&I is only good if you have full faith in the UK government - I have absolutley no faith in Gordy and his clowns and so will not touch NS&I.
You can buy cheap paper gold for much less.I promise you won't notice the difference.
Cheap paper gold is paper - IMO all paper could be reverting to it's intinsic value.
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This drop and the one yesterday just do not seem the same as normal drops, is it genuine market volatility as opposed to supression?
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IMO opinion the deflationists on that thread have a naive view of the currency. After sketching out the persuasive arguments for deflation, they do not stop to consider whether the currency itself could become deflated/devalued. IMO, the gold bugs, for all their hyper-inflationary hype, have a much sounder understanding of money, even a philosophy of money, and can envisage a scenario whereby money itself is compromised. This is completely lacking from the conventional deflationist who holds onto both the faith that cash will be king and the simplistic story that their STR fund will secure them a property when they are dirt cheap.
I find it inconceivable that politicians will not print more money to spend and buy votes if lack of money in circulation is causing problems.
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I have posted this on HPC - it seems I am somewhat indebted to GF, pluto et al (could have been much better if I had found cagnaos MSE posts in 2004)
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...15&start=15 (Title - Just checked my pension - all gains of the last 5 years wiped out)
I moved mine to gold in April - it's 9% up since then.
It is 60% up over what it would have been if I had left it on the stock market - incidentally this is due to applying knowledge I have learned on this site.
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The first page:
Page 1 of 5
CHINA'S DOLLAR MILLSTONE, Part 4
Gold, manipulation and domination
By Henry C K Liu
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/JJ02Cb03.html
Either I'm missing something or you can't get backwards without understanding the URL !!!
I also enjoy Ker's charts.
Advance pages one by one on the last page you get a link to page one.
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Points taken. As implied, at least it's portable!
Is alcohol allowed in Dubai?
Are yu in Dubai?
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Is that meant to make me feel better about spending a thousand bucks on a sliver of shiny metal?
It could have bought nearly 30 cases of high quality beer instead!
In the Russian collapse Vodka became money exchangeable for anything.
I have accumulated a few dozen half bottles of vodka, shame we have such high tax on it here otherwise i would have bought a whole lot more.
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Even the banks head for safe havens in tough times
4:00AM Saturday Sep 27, 2008
Sean O'Grady
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/ar...4452&pnum=0
Even hedge funds have suspended their search for yield in favour of a quest for safety. They have reportedly moved around US$100 billions into "safe havens", simple money-market funds that are traditionally invested in the most conservative of instruments and which are now bolstered by yet another US Treasury guarantee. Gold, the ultimate safe haven, is also experiencing renewed interest.
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Troubles put a shine on gold
Traditionally the safest of safe havens, gold now also has the attraction of being a hedge against a weak dollar. Which could easily arise if the Paulson plan fails, with a renewed crisis in the financial system, or if it succeeds, as the burden of US Treasury debt takes its toll on taxpayers and the wider economy.
So, gold seems a one-way bet. Mark Byrne, director of Gold and Silver Investments, says: "Retail demand is extremely robust as evidenced in shortages of gold and silver in the US, India and in east Asia. The world's largest gold refinery, Rand, in South Africa, was cleared out of their entire inventory of krugerrands in one order by an anonymous Swiss institution."
Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are said to be especially keen goldbugs, as is the Bundesbank, the world's second-largest holder of gold after the US Federal Reserve.
Some say the Chinese Treasury, which has US$1.8 trillion (NZD$2.63 trillion) of US dollar assets and less than 1 per cent of its currency reserves in gold, may warm to the yellow metal.
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Reaching the public now.
After a 20 year bear market and then CB supression of the price most people including most experinced investors have forgotten gold.
They are too young to remember the last gold bull are not catching on to gold's thousand year and more function as the safe haven of last resort, this is good luck because we can still buy it at a reasonable price.
This situation which as far as I know has never happend in history before might not last long.
They are looking en mass to government bonds which are at a high - bonds issued by bankrupt governments that will likely be near worthless.
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I would be happy if I was wrong, I beleive there is a real chance of economic meltdown.
If my gold goes down 50% and all is well - I would settle for that.
Cgnao has said the same.
IMO gold is insurance few have made a fortune by owning it but many have preserved wealth in disaster by owning it.
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U.S. Mint suspends Buffalo gold coins after depletion
[/indent]
I have one the ugliest coin I have ever seen but the colour the shine and the beauty of pure gold is good.
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Why didn't they save all the hassle and just go to Ocean Finance?
Do they still exist?
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Really strange day today gold crashed at 3 pm BST, I cannot remember it ever doing it's regular daily dip at that time of day before.
I suppose it was something to do with the bailout.
Just thought have the USA moved to daylight saving time?
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Bairds now have 24 different types of gold coin out of stock, including all sizes of Britannia, there are also now delays on 1oz Krugers.
They are also out of all bullion decimal sovs except the more expensive 2008.
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Money IMO is
1. Store of value
2. Medium of exchange
3. Measure of value.
Currently I am using gold for purpose 1. and am beginning to use it for purpose 3.
I beleive it is now the best money for long term saving.
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Looks like another challenge at $900 is imminent, I've got a good feeling about this one.
BV has $900 now
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Nice to see gold climb at a steady pace. These rockets up and down of the last few days make me anxious.
Gold does not do "climb at a steady pace" it's a frisky animal.
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just bought my first ever physical today from coininvestdirect!
have previosuly just played with paper and leveraged paper.
i can't wait to get them in my hands.
maples, eagles and philharmonics!
I know the feeling
Naaaaahhhhhh.$25
IMO silver with rocket and overtake gold. I guess we'll see.
That usually happens at the end of a gold bull, silver going exponential then crashing that is.
Just found this announcement on the 'Buy Silver' page at GM:Shortages in the big (1000z) bars now?
Another little bit of circumstantial evidence of market manipulation - shortages.
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Not owning your home (with a huge mortgage) is part of the winning formula
I am amazed a how many people I come accross that would disagree and still believe the property is the best investment over the long term myth.
IMO it's highly leveraged investment in a taxable immovable liability.
more bashing tomorrow.i have no target for the low, but 780 is still bullish.
Agree, just take a look at the last gold bull and imagine yourself as a gold holder in some of those dips, the 20 month gradual halving of price in the mid 70's must have been horrible. Leverage would have been impossible then IMO it should be this time, Junior Miners are a kind of leverage too and are for play money or the expert like Bubb IMO.
We also have active manipulation unlike the last bull which increases the risk/reward profile, this is not going to be an easy bull to ride.
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What is the best way to invest in the miners? Can anyone recomend a few that trade on the LSE or maybe a good fund trading on the LSE?
Miners; Bubb is an expert, there is loads of stuff deeper in this site.
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Any market that can drop $300 on pure bullshit can easily rise $500 on facts. -- Jim Sinclair (17/09/08)
And a gold bull is a bloody hard ride, Jim
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
Posted
It seemed at one time to be forever hitting 666 -
It looks like deflation is a possibility at least for now, so i have had a good look at Mish's site and some of his stuff on gold.
It reassured me alot, gold is good in deflation it certaily was in the 30's deflation.
We are in uncharted waters Fiat deflation happened in Japan but that's irrelevent to the gold market at that time as Japan is only a small part of the golbal ecomomy.
+ He beleives the manipulation while he is sure it happens is overrated by gold bugs, free market forces are the main mover.
+ Gold has gained in value dramatically against other assets, this will continue as deflation continues.
+ Gold is good to hold because we cannot be really sure what the authorities are doing - hyperinflation could happen - but only if they make a serious misjudgement.
+ Monetary demand is all that matters - jewellery demand is largely irrelevent as is mine production.
+ He beleives gold while it is not money anywhere now behaves as money and should be treated as a currency.
+ Gold does poorly in normal/good times.
+ Gold does well in difficult times - he beleives thing are not going to get better any time soon - the deflation will last years.
+ The managers of our Fiat currencies are much more capable than those in the past they know that gradual inflation works - they have made it work for nearly a century with no panic, we should not expect elementary mistakes like those that crashed historic fiat currencies.