ChrisP

I've calculated the difference between Puplava's Q2 and Q3 holdings. Here is the P&L and the number of shares bought or sold in each at the time of reporting.

This isn't very accurate but it's the best I can do from the data. I've removed any companies that he has sold between Q2 and Q3 (e.g. Newmont Mining) and removed any companies he has added to the portfolio during that time. Here is how things are shaping up. Seniors looking healthy, Juniors dragging their knuckles.

* P&L is in dollars.

Holding P/L Delta Shares

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

ABCOURT MINES INC CL B ISIN#CA -1000 0

ABERDEEN ASIA PACIFICINCOME FD -37000 5500

AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD ISIN#CA 2313000 -17150

ALAMOS GOLD INC ISIN#CA0115271 -17000 2500

ALEXCO RESOURCE CORPCOM ISIN#C -18000 0

ALLIED NEV GOLD CORP 20000 873

ALLSCRIPTS HEALTHCAR ESOLUTION 172000 -2700

ALMADEN MINERALS LTD -36000 2000

ALTIUS MINERALS CORP ISIN#CA02 -748000 -2800

ANDINA MINERALS INC COM ISIN#C 146000 -14500

APACHE CORP -55000 749

APPLIED MATERIALS INC -113000 3167

AQUA AMERICA INC -102000 -19250

AQUILINE RES INC ISIN#CA03839N -136000 -10400

ARCHER DANIELS MIDLAND -358000 2405

AUEX VENTURES INC ISIN#CA05103 -6000 3300

AURELIAN RESOURCES INC ISIN#CA -6870000 80400

AURIZON MINES LTD ISIN#CA05155 13000 -600

AXMIN INC ISIN#CA05461V1022 SE -11000 3000

BAKER HUGHES INC 448000 -3150

BARNWELL INDUSTRIES INC 25000 0

BHP BILLITON LTD SPONADR ISIN# 466000 5375

BP PLC SPONADR REPSNTG ORDSHRS 931000 -6282

CALEDONIA MINING CORPCOM ISIN# 0 0

CAMECO CORP ISIN#CA13321L1085 618000 -50

CANARC RESOURCES CRP ISIN#CA13 -3000 4500

CANDENTE RESOURCES CORP ISIN#C -3000 0

CANPLATS RES CORP ISIN#CA13805 1048000 -185300

CATERPILLAR INC -2170000 25275

CENTRAL FD CDA CL A ISIN#CA153 1191000 -57300

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION -1101000 33960

CHESAPEAKE GOLD CORP ISIN#CA16 281000 -12500

CHEVRON CORP NEW 18000 555

CIMAREX ENERGY CO 49000 400

CISCO SYS INC -74000 814

CLAUDE RES INC ISIN#CA18287310 -13000 2000

CMQ RES INC ISIN#CA12600Q1019 0 0

COEUR D ALENE MINES CORP -27000 0

COLUMBUS GOLD CORP COM ISIN#CA -2000 0

COMMITTEE BAY RES LTD ISIN#CA2 -3000 4000

CONOCOPHILLIPS 781000 438

COPPER RIDGE EXPLORATIONS -1000 0

CORNERSTONE CAP RES INC ISIN#C 0 0

DELL INC 64000 3542

DENISON MINES CORP COM ISIN#CA 37000 2145

DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLINGINC 2188000 -10600

DU PONT E I DE NEMOURS& CO 28000 -6100

E REX INC 0 0

ECU SILVER MNG INC ISIN#CA2683 -10000 0

ELDORADO GOLD CORP NEW ISIN#CA 55000 1200

EMGOLD MINING CORP COM ISIN#CA 3000 -16000

ENCANA CORP ISIN#CA2925051047 115000 -500

ENDEAVOUR SILVER CRP ISIN#CA29 -41000 2200

ENERPLUS RES FD TR UNITSER G N -60000 1752

ENSCO INTERNATIONAL INC -13000 9850

ESPERANZA SILVER CRP ISIN#CA29 -260000 -38000

EXETER RESOURCE CORP ISIN#CA30 263000 -54100

EXXON MOBIL CORP 23000 35

FARALLON RESOURCES LTD ISIN#CA 589000 -718100

FIRST MAJESTIC SILVERCORP COM 165000 -29700

FISSION ENERGY CORP -18000 766

FORTUNA MINES INC ISIN#CA34991 22000 -10850

FREEPORT MCMORAN COPPER& GOLD 934000 -2150

FULL METAL MINERALS LTD ISIN#C -55000 3400

GENERAL ELECTRIC CO -974000 -12139

GOLDCORP INC NEW ISIN#CA380956 2848000 -15754

GOLDEN ARROW RES CORPCOM ISIN# -2000 0

GOLDEN STAR RES LTD CDACOM ISI -638000 53500

GOLDRUSH RESOURCES LTD ISIN#CA -3000 0

GREAT BASIN GOLD LTD ISIN#CA39 -35000 4000

GREAT PANTHER RES LTD ISIN#CA3 -38000 -28100

HATHOR EXPL LTD ISIN#CA4190181 -1801000 766200

IAMGOLD CORP ISIN#CA4509131088 -135000 14074

ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS -4000 0

IMPACT SILVER CORP ISIN#CA4525 -8000 0

INTEL CORP -45000 3142

INTERNATIONAL ROYALTYCORP ISIN 130000 -9885

INTREPID MINES LIMITEDSHS ISIN 4000 0

JNR RESOURCES INC -92000 3800

JOHNSON & JOHNSON 403000 -6901

JOY GLOBAL INC -1402000 30300

KIMBER RES INC ISIN#CA49435N10 -162000 18100

MAG SILVER CORP -369000 3000

MARATHON OIL CORP ISIN#US56584 279000 1073

METALLICA RESOURCES INC ISIN#C 25000 800

MINCO GOLD CORP COM ISIN#CA602 -7000 0

MINEFINDERS LTD CORP -362000 -94835

MINERA ANDES INC ISIN#CA602910 -182000 -50800

MIRANDA GOLD CORP ISIN#CA60467 -3000 2800

MOYDOW MINES INTL INC 0 0

NABORS INDUSTRIES LTD(BERMUDA) -489000 408550

NEW GUINEA GOLD CORP ISIN#CA64 1000 0

NEW PAC METALS CORP COM ISIN#C 64000 0

NOBLE CORPORATION SHS ISIN#KYG 383000 -2600

NORTHGATE MINERALS CORPFORMERL -4000 -2500

NUVEEN CALIF MUN MKTOPPORTUNIT -1000 0

NUVEEN CALIF QUALITY INCOMEMUN -1000 0

OREZONE RESOURCES INC ISIN#CA6 -236000 -18800

PALADIN RESOURCES LTDSHS ISIN# 34000 0

PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP ISIN# 174000 -10100

PENN WEST ENERGY TR TRUNIT ISI 2165000 -38627

PETRO CANADA COM ISIN#CA71644E 17000 1360

PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SAPETROBRA 1437000 -35874

PFIZER INC -308000 -5650

PITCHSTONE EXPLORATIONSLTD COM -6000 -2000

PMI GOLD CORP COM ISIN#CA73015 -2000 0

POWERSHARES DB MULTI SECTORCOM 3963000 -90700

PRECISION DRILLING TRUNIT ISIN 318000 301

QUEST DIAGNOSTICS INC -65000 4700

RADIUS GOLD INC ISIN#CA7504681 -1000 0

RIMFIRE MINERALS CORP ISIN#CA7 -19000 2500

ROYAL GOLD INC 364000 -8770

ROYAL STANDARD MINERALSINC -126000 59203

RUBICON MINERALS CORP ISIN#CA7 -3000 3500

SAMEX MINING CORP -2000 0

SAN JUAN BASIN RTY TRUNIT BEN 422000 1567

SASOL LTD SPONADR 268000 7500

SCHLUMBERGER LTD ISIN#AN806857 1325000 -3275

SHOSHONE SILVER MNG CO -1000 0

SILVER STANDARD RES INC ISIN#C 119000 -27545

SILVER WHEATON CORP COM ISIN#C 31000 -59890

SILVERCORP METALS INC ISIN#CA8 -1899000 -65520

SOHO RESOURCES CORP -4000 0

STRATHMORE MINERALS CORP ISIN# 357000 -112500

SUNOCO INC -460000 4000

SUPERIOR ENERGY SERVICESINC 445000 15350

SYNTROLEUM CORP 62000 3000

TANZANIAN RTY EXPL COM ISIN#CA -41000 500

TERRANE METALS CORP COM ISIN#C -3000 5000

TESORO CORP COM FORMERLYTESORO -960000 18050

TIDEWATER INC 1958000 -21519

TOURNIGAN ENERGY LTD CANADA IS -1000 0

TRANSOCEAN INC NEW SHS ISIN#KY 1327000 -5618

TRINITY INDS INC DEL FRMLYTEXA 1257000 -7101

TYHEE DEVELOPMENT CORP ISIN#CA -2408000 183250

U S GOLD CORP -28000 5650

US GOLD CDN ACQUISITIONCORP SH -4000 0

VALERO ENERGY CORP -114000 -200

VISTA GOLD CORP REORGANIZATION -69000 -38100

X CAL RES LTD -4000 0

XTO ENERGY INC 102000 -267

YAMANA GOLD INC ISIN#CA98462Y1 1645000 -49984

YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA SPON ADR 86000 -1400

YUKON NEVADA GOLD CORP ISIN#CA -66000 3910

ZIMMER HLDGS INC -270000 940

alright, sorry to keep banging on about this but here is a perfect example of what I mean. From Doug Casey's subscriber letter:

The market took a frightful beating yesterday, and almost all of our shares sold off -- but for exactly the wrong reasons. In this quarterly update edition, we update you on the very best buys to turn this volatility into great profits. These aren't just Best Buys, they are Screaming Best Buys.

Always the wrong reasons. Always time to buy on dips. Always an opportunity for great profits (unless you bought in two years ago in which case you'd be looking at 80+% losses).

I am listening to schiff at the mo and he tackles this via a couple of questions from buyers of his funds

 

http://www.europac.net/media/PeterSchiff_10-01-2008.mp3

 

now in fairness they are talking about utility companies but I think the same answers would apply. fwiw, I don't have juniors so I respect your pov given the performance of the 2 you still own.

look at Schiff's EuroPac portfolio - not doing so great for such a wise guru. Especially when you deduct the horrendous fees he charges.

I am listening to schiff at the mo and he tackles this via a couple of questions from buyers of his funds

 

http://www.europac.net/media/PeterSchiff_10-01-2008.mp3

 

now in fairness they are talking about utility companies but I think the same answers would apply. fwiw, I don't have juniors so I respect your pov given the performance of the 2 you still own.

It's not just the ones I own (those are dead wood floating in the sea of my red portfolio) but i've been following recommendations from as many as eight gold and silver publications and since 2006 the trend has been down. Would you want to hold these things for two years based on the advice of a thousand gold bugs who are sure! this is the perfect buying op ("buy on dips", "buy now, this is your last chance", "hold, it's just a matter of time", etc)?

If these guys are the experts and they can't give decent timing advice (two years is ample time to get out and back in near the bottom) then who can? No, these guys are talking their book and passing it off as investment advice for these trying times.

I know Bubb has made a good profit from miners since 2001 but then the smart money was also buying bullion around that time for a none too shabby 400+% profit (so far). Most people aren't the smart money.

yup, there are loads of bullish articles. Now look at the stock prices. Someone isn't convinced.

Bear in mind that stocks trade as an integral of expected future profits and gold mining profits are intrinsically linked to the price of gold. The HUI's trading at about 0.32 of the price of gold, a multi year low and a 40 percent discount on the stable price over the last few years. This either means that gold mining stocks are very cheap or the gold bull is over, which one do you reckon it is?

I don't doubt that but surely owning the bullion is more sensible in a bear market like this one than hoping someone will see value is these miners who have escalating operating costs and difficulties obtaining funding?

Seriously, does anyone here have the honesty to post their losses (in percentage terms) buying in to these juniors at each "bottom"?

For disclosure: i'm 80+% down on Tyhee and 96% down on Northern Lion - the only two i still own.

another bad day for the junior mining shares....could this be a bottom (again)?....does this signal the start of the next up leg for the mining shares?....blah blah blah....

Face it guys. Your better of burning your notes to keep warm this winter.

(note to self: be prepared for an almighty sh*t cart load of abuse if the mining stocks rally)

Looking at that chart, it seems to me you tend to get more bangs for your buck on the upside if you invest in oil.

It looks to me like the main trend changer is war. Is that what we're building up to?

after breaking 775 gold entered C wave of an ABC from 980 , next support is 700, more likely 710 than so widely circulated number 730. i expect tuesday this correction will be over

Please excuse my lack of experience with charting but surely once a support line is broken, followed by another support line, doesn't it suggest that these lines are somewhat arbitrary? What does it mean if gold breaks support at 710? Is there a conclusion that can be drawn from that?

thesilverexchange.com allegedly accepts credit cards. I would possibly just start paying all running expenses with the CC and average in. Anyway, we're not there yet, and I might actually not do it anyway if IRs are forbiddingly high. It was more of a joke.

Just a thought, but why would a silver merchant want to accept cash for silver if they thought there was going to be a massive inflation? Why not just lock the doors and sit in the vault with the inventory waiting for D-Day?

I honestly don't get why people are worried.

Because there is still a chance of massive deflation....even after the Feddie and Frannie bail-out.

What's going on? The vol is almost flat today. Have all the gold traders taken the day off today?

This gold stock correction has made most of the newsletter writers etc. look clueless and it's positively embarrassing watching Elliott wavers trying to make sense of it all.

At what point does it stop being a correction and start becoming a bad investment recommendation?

friggin' hell.

uuuggh. My energy stocks have been viciously murdered lately and now gold is getting the knife. Is there anything that won't escape the carnage?

Technical analysis in gold is the best way to the poorhouse.

I tried this when I first started spreadbetting - technical analysis of intraday trends. You can guess what the result was...

I won't touch TA these days. I just try to find the long term trend and ride it.

So... the market's drifted down during the night. The US traders will be coming in later having had a long holiday weekend..... Many of them will have been mulling the current economic state over in their mind.

 

They're either gonna grab this gold bull by its horns and take it to new highs.

or

They're gonna destroy the gains made last week.

 

(IMO)

 

The only problem is, I'm undecided as to which way it'll go. I guess I'm 40:60 (leaning more towards the bearish) and that means I feel I should be mostly out of the market (aside from core holdings, that is).

 

Thoughts from others?

there was lots of talk on here last week about a dollar rally this week. If true then gold might take a hit. I'm not too worried. Just look around at the devastation in the financial wasteland...

I am expecting a pullback shortly. Gold is so volatile at the moment and seems bound to repeat its erratic moves. Conventionally thinking, you would expect gold to settle down and stabilize after a period of volatility, therein building strength for new heights. Yet given the awful news in the stock markets, the continuation of soaring oil and political developments, I am not so sure whether it will settle.

 

I have decided to use all my dry powder this week. Sure, gold may dip, most probably will, and I will lose out on a few bucks, but the peace of mind of not having to worry about it is well worth a few bucks. For me, as a long term bull, the most important thing is to get in. Hoping to do the deal tomorrow or Friday. Also hoping gold dips very soon.

Likewise, after careful thought i think i'll be in again under 930. Just in case...

Probably shortly after NY opens.

There's also a 1.5% currency exchange charge, so for a £1000 deal it would cost £27.95 or £55.90 a round trip. That's assuming their platform allows you to trade the stock you're interested in otherwise a telephone trade will cost a minimum of £25 (plus the currency charge)on a sliding scale.

Yes, they do suck it right out of you. I don't know why the American brokerage firms can give a $10 trade charge while n the UK we get pumped for more than twice as much. Anyone know of a cheaper service?

My opinion; it will try for 950 TODAY! ...and close near to but not over it.

is anyone buying at 930-940 or does anyone expect it to come back down again to the low 900s?

OMG, 940 -- through the 'resistance zone' ??

 

EDIT: shorts getting FRIED.

 

EDIT 2: please review!

http://www.rallymonkey.com/oldvideo.php

but is it coming back down?

Hi folks,

 

I’ve been regularly buying both gold and silver bullion for a while and would now like to buy some junior mining companies. I'm UK based and my plan is to buy a modest amount of shares in a self select ISA but the companies I’m interested in are primarily listed on the Toronto stock exchange. Does anyone know of either 1) a self-select ISA that can trade on the Toronto Exchange or 2) a fund of mining juniors that can be bought in an ISA wrapper, e.g. via fidelity. My plan is to buy and hold a regular lump of shares each month so I’d like to keep purchase costs to a minimum, naturally

 

Any pointers gratefully received.

I use TDWaterhouse to trade Canadians in a self-select. Commissions are £12.95 per trade.

That's just what I was wondering.

 

Am I wrong in thinking that all oil contracts are real and somebody has to take delivery on maturity?

 

To what extent and for realistically how many months can speculators hold up the price by their sentiment alone?

Mostly likely when things get really bad the exchanges will change the rules so that contract holders can settle in case. It makes perfect sense in the context of this story (given it's true). What a twisted world.

There’s been a noticeable uptick in media coverage of nuclear/uranium. Last week we had McCains comments, now this random piece in Bloomberg.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

 

“June 23 (Bloomberg) -- The uranium industry's worst year is about to collide with a nuclear construction program in India and China that rivals the ones undertaken during the oil crisis of the 1970s.

The result is likely to be a 58 percent rebound in uranium to $90 a pound from $57 now, according to Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty and Rio Tinto Group, the third-biggest mining company. “

I'll believe it when I see my uranium stocks rise from the underworld.