peterb

Which date do you estimate for that DJIA-Gold ratio bottom?

Looks like about 2015/16 to me, from your chart.

I don't agree entirely. For instance, an exchange rate is such ratio, but if one currency gets systematically debased (GBP?) while the other seems largely stable (EUR??), a logscale can make sense.

If a currency is completely debased along the road of hyperinflation, then a log chart may make sense with regards exchange rates using that currency.

Otherwise charts showing Dow/Gold ratio should not be logarithmic as they are both based on the same currency and fluctuate within a certain range over time. If the USD is debased, then both the Dow and Gold would equally reflect the change and the ratio would remain within the range.

When it comes to a chart showing the ratio between two stocks, commodities or indices, the ratio should not be plotted on a log scaled chart as a ratio should always fluctuate within a defined range and not be subject to exponential growth over time.

1 Month gold lease rates have been negative since March.

In fact they seem to be the lowest (most negative) than anytime in the last 10 years.

Gold owners are essentially paying people to borrow gold for a month. Borrowed meaning sold short.

The 1m, 3m, 6m, 12m rates have also diverged substantially.

http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.html

interesting. i don't know quite why, but i find that graph compelling. looks like 750 ish will be a fantastic entry point, if this pattern plays out.

Why 750 ish?

Looks like a reverse head and shoulders to me, with the rhs hitting a low at 845 (also a fib retracement).

Gold bearishness is overwhelming even from the die-hards.

I feel bearish even though I took long positions this week.

I think the roller-coaster ride has been exhausting over the last three years and there is always the hope of the return to normal for general stocks. Gold never really outperformed.

There is one thing though - I will only put my money into stores of weath at the moment and I am sure this is the same for most people out there.

Now where is that? Cash, Gold, Bonds? Not the general market right now, I'm sure.

THIS BREAKOUT in stocks,

will pull down Gold and gold shares IMHO.

 

I see it going on for MANY more days, and may take SPX up to 1,000 potentiallly.

We nailed the timing on the recent GEI conference call. Pity more here were not involved.

Great that you predicted and caught it, but did you put your money there?

I would be hard pressed to place mine in any bear market rally.

I was also hoping to make the conference, but work called. I do appreciate your efforts.

Any good suggestions on trading a drop?

Put warrants come to mind. Timeframe and strike is the question.

What does KGX stand for?

 

(I did try Googling it.)

Kitco Gold Index.

It shows gold against a basket of currencies - similar to the US dollar index.

It makes more sense to measure gold against an index rather than any particular currency, in order to determine it's true relative worth.

Just can't fiind any other up to date gold index sources.

Ker, for any TA people out there, it would be best to run your analysis off a gold index chart - it may make more sense.

Good one CG.

Just can't find any up-to-date or live feeds with this data.

Stockcharts doesn't seem to have anything either - calculation $GOLD:1/$USD - doesn't work there.

If one considers gold and silver to be monetary metals, then there should be a gold and silver index as most currencies have.

This would be the best global benchmark.

Ker, would be nice to see a Gold index chart - what do you say?

Please review:

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/stott030803.html

 

One web site says that gold should be stored in Switzerland! Of all the asinine advice ever given, that takes the cake. You own gold to hedge yourself and protect yourself, correct? Then why would you want to store it any place but in your own home or place of safety and easy access? Gold ten thousand miles away, is an absurdity, just as is gold in some account off shore in the Caribbean or other inaccessible place. If times get rough, as we thought they would with Y2K, would you have stored your food, water, generator or flashlights in a distant city or country? Of course not. If you go out in a boat to catch some fish, do you leave your life preserver on shore? If you go for a swim, do you leave your swim suit at home? Why would you leave your silver in a warehouse, your gold at some distant place, or your food in the grocery store, and especially after you have paid for it? Honestly, I sometimes think I am writing to first graders.

Protect your family and yourself.

Never store all your valuables at home.

The risk is too great in times of hardship.