Vicarious

I think the 3rd retest of 1180 is nailed on. I also think this time it won't hold and things are going to get alot worse. The miners also seem to have made lower lows with each retest.

Nadeem has got an article up on his site from Jonathan Davis.. I'm guessing its the same guy who started on Hpc?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article46074.html

indeed, I listened to financial sense for the first time in a while this weekend. I'm sure they called the bottom June. Now seemed to be saying gold is finished and the inflationists don't understand the modern financial system. I guess I missed the episode where they said they were wrong. I wonder what sort of calls they are getting currently?

Most of last nights Max Keiser was about UK housing, Dominic on again too!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=z3sJnAUUEaE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UWFum8fscKE

So a lot of talk about physical here, just wondering how people are feeling who are holding the miners, though I guess people might not want to talk about their losses??

I've been pretty defensive trying to target producers with low costs and I'm still hurting so can't imagine what people holding some juniors feel. Just noticed my first investment in black rock gold and general which I bought when gold was under $400 an ounce but have admittedly added to on dips is just about to tick into a loss. Really not sure what to do right now after reading this on fs by Pru Saxena who's opinion I've valued, calling the end of the bull market.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/puru-saxena/buy-u-s-short-commodities

House builders have shot up on the back on the budget.

Just spotted Mr Frisby chatting about gold on the keiser report.

Oops, I actually hold Minefinders but had no clue. The stock price doesn't show it either, or does it?

article here

It was up around 27% at some point yesterday.. I think it fell back a bit towards the close.

Why do you think so?

as pan American have bought out minefinders I was wondering if anyone had a strong opinion on the stock or if I should put the money into a different miner?

so Minefinders... Take the cash and put it in something else or the Pan American shares?

article on market oracle today

i'm a happy boy

SILVERCORP METALS INC. 11.73 +16.37%

just playing with the land registry data and as i suspected we haven't had the mini bounce up here, just a steady decline from peak of around 20% I think the north south divide is reopening and with the public sector cuts (Leeds and Sheffield seem to be two of the hardest hit) I can only see it getting worse

Well I've been selling some stock on the back of the expected CGT tax rise and moved my house deposit back into sterling, I put my first ever offer in as I was going to fix for 5 years at 4% and leave some cash aside to cover a small mortgage and then go travel for a year.

There is a new development near me which was selling for 200k at the peak, the builder went bust and the bank took hold of all the houses, they are now sellling the 3 beds for 165k, there is another development across the road just starting where the builder is doing 4 beds for 165k. I was told the bank was desperate to get rid so put in an offer of 140k and it was knocked straight back without even a hint of what the bank would accept. V.suprised at that.

From:

I like this one, goes over the Fibonacci sequence in Tool's Lateralus.

They do indeed, hidden right at the bottom of the list:

Current prices are

period sell buy

dec09 165.9 167.9

mar10 167.7 170.2

 

uk wide prices, I guess that's the nationwide index but am usnure.

March one looks interesting. Reckon the crash will have begun by then? That's as late as they are willing to go by the looks of things.

Same spreads I posted on the previous page, hasnt changed today on the nationwide news so Im assuming it could be halifax?

ig index offer a uk house price spread, March 2010 is currently priced sell at £167.7k, buy at £170.2k

What area/town/city are you in?

Wakefield like the Grumpster, I rent from the builder one of these lifestyle riverside apartments which are useless round here, all young families and very few childless professionals.

I also noticed Yorks + Humber reported a 3.9% drop in the right move numbers which overall reported a rise.

Rents around here seem to have collapsed, my flat was up for £675, I knocked them down to £625 in Feb 08, there are similar 2 bed flats in my block now up for £450.

Does anyone know how this is going to effect the upcoming tax changes to the trusts?

On the “creamy centre” theory, I believe it was said on FS that it would coincide with the US election due to the fact that the republicans would never get re-elected with oil at $145 a barrel, after the election things would then carry on with the dollar starting to fall again once all the representatives knew their seats were safe.

It’s a theory I’ve thought has merit and I’ve been happy to hold until after the election, though today I’ve just spotted this. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6092.html

Obama is advised by former “tight money” Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker , and hence understands the inflation-fighting benefits of higher interest rates. He will also want to make a change at the Fed, where the Democrats have not appointed a chairman since Volcker himself in 1979.

 

Conversely, McCain will be more likely to extend the term of current Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke (which expires in January 2010), thereby producing an additional extended period of excessively low interest rates. While beneficial for the stock market in the short run, low interest rates in the current environment will produce accelerating inflation, which will require a much more seriously damaging period of much higher interest rates to sort out.

Now I believe Volker's policies are generally believed to be what saved the dollar before and marked the top in the gold market in 1980, If this is to be repeated then I would worry would the gold market signal the top on the very news of Obama’s election due to Volkers involvement or is this piece of information being overplayed and he has very little input on economic policy.

Welcome back, Marceau!

 

And, for anyone who's able to receive the UK TV channel ITV1, the classic James Bond flick Goldfinger is this afternoon starting at 4pm (that's UK time, of course)!

 

I'll definitely be watching it (or at least recording it and watching it this evening[1])... and while I do, I'll be thinking of you lot!

 

[1] Boy, do I know how to have fun on a Saturday evening!

Just been reading Andrew Marr's history of modern Britain, apparently Goldfinger was named after Hungarian modernist architect Erno Goldfinger who’s responsible for many of the 1960’s tower blocks in the UK. Apparently Fleming hated them so decided to name his baddie after him.

Just thought I’d chip in here, I bought my first core position in gold at around $350 -$400 and was lucky enough to build most of my position under $500, from a physical point of view; yup movements like this haven’t scared me, but the stocks??? I don’t remember them being so undervalued in relation to the physical price, these drops seem even worse than the massive sell offs before the first fed cut last year when I assumed the banks were selling to raise capital for margin calls.

Something I’ve done with my Tdwaterhouse account is buy the Canadian energy trusts with the higher dividends (12% -15% I think when I bought them) the dividends are paid monthly, I’ve then kept the Canadians dollars in my account and bought gold juniors with them, It hasn’t been a bad strategy the last few months.

Posted this in the inflation thread, thought it would be relevent here also, probably the first of many calls...

CPI target to 'crucify' consumers

Consumers will be "crucified" unless the government changes its inflation target, a leading economist has warned.

 

Peter Spencer from the influential Ernst & Young Item Club is urging ministers to change the 2% inflation target used by the Bank of England.

 

He warned that interest rates would have to stay at 5% if inflation is to be brought down to 2%.

 

He added that keeping interest rates at their current level would hurt hard-pressed households.

He called for the Bank of England's remit to change so it focused on "core inflation", a measure that excludes food and energy prices and is used in the US.