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dietcolaaddict

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Posts posted by dietcolaaddict


  1. Edit: silver is not my core currency... gold is. If silver were my core position I wouldn't be trading or selling it. What works for one, might not work for another. There is a good chance I get it wrong on silver, but this does not concern me too much due to a large gold holding. If silver does go the next level, I think it is likely to remain volatile and should dip at some point to where I exited.

     

    I agree with this. I see silver as a bit like oil in that it has a gold-to-xx ratio that fluctuates about a bit that can be used for longer term trading positions to enter when cheap and exit when expensive. Gold is the currency to accumulate profits and had a nice resistance floor to hold and protect profits in. I guess at some point this summer we will see a test of that floor - perhaps at $1040 ish, where the Indians bought.


  2. Gold already at the races this morning........

     

    Talking of which, it's the Grand National this weekend.

     

    John%20Smiths%20Grand%20National%200Wwpa

     

    For all precious Metal affectionados its got to be*:

     

    Silver Birch 66-1

     

    But this horse, despite winning in 2007, is this year only a reserve.

     

    That leaves a tenuous second choice of :

     

    Cerium 50-1

     

    Again a reserve, but very gutsy finishing 5th last year despite collecting a fractured skull in the process.

    Cerium is a "soft, silvery, ductile metal which easily oxidizes" (wikipedia)

     

     

    * Warning - betting is akin to short term trading. It would be embarressing to lose your knickers during the biggest horse run ever.

     


  3. Gold needs to keep up momentum here - looking (hoping?) to see it cross $1150 in the next day or two. Then we are on for testing the $ high.

     

    I'm always banging on about seasonality, but I am increasingly feeling that 2010 may well be different with a decent or strong performance possible this summer, perhaps even with a new $ top in the next month or so.

     

    $1150 breached.

     

    Hmmmm what we need....rhymes with pocket, socket and Lord Brockett


  4.  

    Gold needs to keep up momentum here - looking (hoping?) to see it cross $1150 in the next day or two. Then we are on for testing the $ high.

     

    I'm always banging on about seasonality, but I am increasingly feeling that 2010 may well be different with a decent or strong performance possible this summer, perhaps even with a new $ top in the next month or so.

     

     

     

     


  5. I'm going to wait till after Easter now. I see the tea leaves as saying one more down in that triangle to under 1100 before knowing if we break out or break down. I get the feeling from the moving averages that we'll go down a bit. Just my feeling though.

     

    Silver is leading gold up here. Through that 1115-20 sticky area


  6.  

    I'm a big believer in gold seasonality and I'm hence a bit worried about buying more PMs over the next few months. Its almost April so the Sept-March season of strength is by previous years performance, over, I think there may be the usual summer doldrums in $ price, coupled by a rally in the pound while Britain remains delusional/brainwashed about its future up to the election.

     

    - Gold failing repeatedly to take out $1120 - is this a $ top before a doldrumsy summer?

    - A bounce in the $/£ rate may occur from now till UK election - I know its delusional as the UK economy prognosis post-election is dire. But a top in the £ price may also have now occured.

     

    I'm tempted to not buy more at the moment with things looking, to me at least, very 'toppy'. May sit and wait for a few months, perhaps partly in $ (I earn in £)

     

    Comments?

     

     

     

     

     


  7. I see silver as a short term leverage on gold, but no longer as a buy and hold asset.

     

    It's great to own when there is seasonal upside potential, but less favourable during the summer doldrums. Just my opinion.

     

    Gold is the buy and hold, the silver the leverage that you apply when and if you feel able.


  8. Something doesnt look right about that RSI indicator.

    How can it still be "overbought"?

    Cheers Bubb, Im a bit snowed under with the day job at the mo but will test and verify my provisional results when I get some time, and post a corrected version.

     

    Any other technical indicators that would be of interest here?

     

     


  9. So technicals and fundamentals both point to a slide in UK house prices.

     

    The government intervention card has been played out in full, next to crack are the main stream media. At the moment, they are bullish, but lets see in the months ahead. Snow and Stamp Duty are a bit lame as excuses go. Watch for more and more sarcastic comments at the end of these 'spin' stories....

     

    House prices fall for first time in 10 months thanks to bad winter and end of stamp duty holiday

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...l#ixzz0gdg5aRWc

    House prices fell for the first time in 10 months during February as the market suffered a sharp slowdown in activity, figures showed today.

    Nationwide Building Society attributed the one per cent drop to a combination of the severe winter weather during the early part of the year and the end of the Government's stamp duty holiday.

    The fall, which ended nine consecutive months of price rises, did not come as a surprise as the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors had pointed to a steep drop in activity from both potential buyers and sellers during January.

     


  10. Sorry for the double post - mods please remove if you want. From a posting I made on the monthly gold thread but perhaps more relevant and preservable in this thread......

     

     

    I have used online datasets to calculate UK houseprices in gold and added an RSI and MACD calculator. So G0ldfinger’s style of charts are now augmented by some technical indicators.

     

    This is the first time I have done this analysis, so while it looks good by eyeball, I need to verify the values when I get a chance. In the meantime, any thoughts on the provisional results?

     

    My observations so far :

     

    +Since 1971, UK houses valued in gold look overbought when the RSI is at 70 or above. We are now still at RSI = 70 despite a huge drop from c. 700 ounces to c. 200 ounces since 2004. More drops ahead?

     

    +MACD histogram still positive in Feb 2010, but perhaps heading back to below zero. Again may suggest further drops looking at historical patterns of this indicator on this chart in months ahead.

     

    2h4b781.jpg


  11. Good stuff.

     

    Brit houses priced in gold look to be in a corrective phase at the moment [of course, the whole chart is a correction]. I wonder how long it can defy gravity.

     

    Out of interest, is that 12, 26 and 9 weeks instead of days used to calculate MACD and signal line?

     

    Edited.

    Hi RH

     

    It's a monthly chart, so the 12,26 and 9 are months.

     

    From my textbook reading, MACD (12,26,9) refer to sampling periods and since the Nationwide is a monthly index, I cannot really do more than a monthly sampling for the ratio of house prices-to-gold (I could interpolate but I feel that would badly affect the maths behind the MACD/RSI calculations.)

     

    This is the first time I've recreated technical indicators in excel - the results look right - but am happy to hear any feedback if someone spots an error.

     

     


  12. Here’s something I have wanted to do for a while.....

     

    I have used online datasets to calculate UK houseprices in gold and added an RSI and MACD calculator. So G0ldfinger’s style of charts are now augmented by some technical indicators.

     

    This is the first time I have done this analysis, so while it looks good by eyeball, I need to verify the values when I get a chance. In the meantime, any thoughts on the provisional results?

     

    My observations so far :

     

    +Since 1971, UK houses valued in gold look overbought when the RSI is at 70 or above. We are now still at RSI = 70 despite a huge drop from c. 700 ounces to c. 200 ounces since 2004. More drops ahead?

     

    +MACD histogram still positive in Feb 2010, but perhaps heading back to below zero. Again may suggest further drops looking at historical patterns of this indicator on this chart in months ahead.

     

    2h4b781.jpg

     


  13. You're trading gold?

    Hi Errol

     

    I'm a 'buy and hold and accumulate' man for gold (not necessarily silver and platinum though).

     

    But life circumstances have got in the way - GF newly out of work and needs some help with fees for upskilling. I guess if there is one investment better than precious metals it is people. Provided the people come good that is!

     

     

    Edit - GF = girlfriend, not G0ldfinger.


  14. It would be the steepest 'V' ever. ;)

    It's a bit simplistic, but I think of gold as having a peak season floor now of around $1040 - with $1080 the first major support level above this. I can see perhaps a journey back under $1000 during this summer doldrums but not in peak Sep-Mar season.

     

    I prefer holding silver to gold early in this peak season (better upside potential from Sep-Dec) but like to hold gold more than silver late in the season ('The Ides of March') and during the Dreaded Doldrums of the summer.

     

    I have no idea or feel for the floor price in silver either now or in doldrums season, although that may just be me.

     

    EDIT - used £ symbol instead of $

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