POTATOES

The technical's look slightly better this morning (if you're in to that sort of thing)

gold chart 10:00 am GMT

Could be a nice little pop up from here.

I was very skeptical about Elliot wave theory. But, the only analysts who accurately called the last hard gold correction were the Elliot wave boys, ( and cgnao the day before the sell off). I still think there's a little too much post rationalizing when things don't turn out as predicted, but hey, that's human nature.

I'm about 60% gold in either physical or ETFs (mix) and considering dumping the ETFs at this point, just to keep my profits, whilst they are still there.... This would leave me about 40% in - allocated physical. Views?

Take the ETF profit- swap out the profit in to actual physical (brit's or post-decimal sovereigns - no cgt on resale) on this dip. Also might not be a bad idea to have a few singapore 3 -5 year bonds for safety, if you want to go that way. As a Speculative punt, with oil this low most of the mining companies operating costs will be dropping, look for companies that have low gearing and large reserves. I'm also begining to think the Big oil companies are looking like a long value buy at the moment. DYODD

What does anybody else think?

 

ps - can anyone tell me the exact date for the COMEX default, as I would like to set the whole day & night aside with cider & my favourite extra mature cheese & some nice crackers.

If you like a good Cheddar, have you tried 'Black Bomber'? ( it's contained in a black wax). No good for toasting, but beat's every other cheddar style cheese I've ever tried.

http://www.snowdoniacheese.co.uk/

(I don't own any shares -honest!!)

Back on Topic:-

I'd like to see 740-735 hold and the next leg up take out 835-845 on volume. That would be a big confirmation for me.

Buy the dips?

 

It actually looks a good long buy at the moment. Hmmm...

Does any body know what just happened to the gold 6 month lease rate? It appears they're paying you to lease gold. Would this have any thing to do with the potential Comex default? Hmmmmmm......

Found this article interesting.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/100677-mis...gold-could-rise

If I understand it correctly, the wider the spread between libor and lease rates, the greater the chance of a price spike. Or have I misinterpreted that?

Just been quoted £535 for a krugerrand at ATS ( they have about 20) Current NY spot is £469. Thats a $100 dollar premium for physical at Bullion dealers, not just on Ebay.

Or another (more severe) bank solvency crisis--99%

Or massive inflation--51%

Or collapse of several eastern European countries--35%

Or default on government debt of just one G7 country (Italy will do)--18%

Or the Icelandic mess not being cleared up within three months---68%

Or the IMF failing to prevent a country going bankrupt--38%

Or some other as yet unknown and unexpected event--85%

 

I would have thought that the worst outcome for gold would be an orderly deflation over several years with nothing else major going pop along the way. We end up with a severe recession/depression and the gubmint fails to reflate. Yes, in those circumstances, cash may very well be king (assuming you can get real returns on interest).

 

Anyone care to post odds on the relative weighting of these possible outcomes?

Found this chart- It would suggest that the long term trend estimates a floor in the price of gold of $650.

Try getting your own money out !.

 

When making a large cash withdrawl cashier asked

 

"What are you going to do with the money?."

 

"Why I replied"

 

"It's my job I have to ask it's the rules!"

 

looking her firmly in the eye I replied

 

"So you've done your job, you asked!" and walked out.

I always reply:-

" I'm sorry, I don't discuss personal matters with money lenders."- It's fun watching the Cyborg's reboot.

Goldfinger, I think you'll be needing this piece of equipment soon.

1 Oz Krugerrands are selling for £620 on Ebay tonight.

I'm going to change my mind. I agree with RH, it is an interesting chart

And I've failed to 'prove' my $1250 point.

 

I have done these though:

 

 

 

 

Great charts.

That is one stunning chart! Well shows the battles between the forces of economic "good and evil".

 

Edit: There may still be some profit taking to come with further weak hands shaken out, but as investors get increasingly nervous with the dollar and gold continues on a parabolic path I reckon it will break out soon.

Expect some resistance at 945-950

My gold losses have been bearable ... just brought me back to near where I started. However I've been burned very badly by Silver (see my post a few days ago in which I warned that I knew my strategy would lead to me "chasing the market down" - which it has).

 

Grumble, grumble. Not feeling particularly great today, I must admit.

Patience, patience. Climb that wall of fear. All those fresh new dollars have not suddenly disappeared.

Sure, visit:

http://www.Goldseek.com , or http://www.HoweStreet.com , or http://www.KEreport.com

 

And dont be afraid to suggest future guests for CW Radio on the appropriate thread

Thanks for the suggestions.

HI -I'm a Refugee from HPC since it decided to cut its own head off. Just wanted to ask Dr Bubb or any one else, whether are there any other good downloadable radio programs apart from the Financial sense news hour or Commodities Watch radio for insight into gold and other markets? Many thanks.