wheelybin

I hope it works out well for you

Thanks.

Other than houses being 4 times (or so) cheaper...

Or you can rent without being treated like a second class citizen

Where from and to, if you don't mind me asking.

From London to Berlin.

By the way, it's nice to be back.... not that I was ever the most prolific poster on this thread... but despite being internetless while emigrating, I've managed to check in for a quick lurk most days.

Always enlightening.

...I know a lot of people won't want to hear this, but I can't see gold going up again significantly for many months and I'm expecting further declines just before Christmas...

I haven't a clue where the £ is going, and to be honest I don't think it matters, pretty much every currency is going to be worth a hell of a lot less in a year's time.

Hi Marceau,

Those two statements seem to be a bit at odds with one another. Currencies worth a hell of a lot less would suggest gold worth a hell of a lot more, in fiat terms at least.

Investment Funds seen moving from oil to gold.

 

Coming just as the price of oil fell sharply, the word here in London has it that several large investment funds – keen to maintain an inflation hedge but concerned by political and regulatory meddling in the energy markets – are switching out of traded commodities and moving into gold.

 

...

 

"There's [still] a lot of worry about inflation," as Mario Innecco, a broker in Gold futures at MF Global in London to Bloomberg today. So with politicians and media accusing commodity traders of "hoarding" necessities, the switch into non-essential hard assets – such as Gold Bullion – becomes ever-more attractive.

 

...

 

"The Gold Market has to be prepared for a reaction to a possible puncturing of the oil price bubble," writes Lawrence Williams for MineWeb. Ajay Kedia, head of Kedia Commodities in Mumbai agrees, telling Myiris.com today that demand for gold "as a hedge against inflation" may be affected by a drop in the price of oil.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/node/2473

Gold goes up as oil goes down?

Seems to be on a bit of a tear at the moment... at this rate, it'll be over $910 in about 15 minutes.

back over $900!

Ah-ha! I stand corrected! Those Hollywood art directors exercising their creative licence.

(For nerds like me, it's also interesting to note that the Wizard of Oz is widely claimed to be political allegory for bimetallism, in which the silver shoes end up defeating the yellow brick road which symbolized gold).

They were ruby slippers weren't they, Magpie?

http://www.wetcircuit.com/wp-content/myfot...rd_of_Oz_00.jpg

Keeping a beady eye on the ol' Joe-Publicometer....

What's going on here?

The latest data on the housing market are undeniably alarming,'' said Howard Archer, chief European economist at Global Insight in London, who expects prices to fall 12 percent this year and next.

The Halifax index shows that prices are down 7.84% from their peak in August 07. What Howard Archer is effectively saying, is that there'll only be another 4% or so of falls before the end of 2009.

Personally, I don't see what's going to stop the rot.

Edit... the June, July, August falls are only taken into account by the YoY

The precious metal getting ever more precious....

From Money Week

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/48194/the-pr...e-precious.html

Wow. Down 14 points in 15 minutes!

Looks from the Bullionvault information as though there's a continuing steady rise in their gold.... the rise tailing off a little if anything.

Strange how the amount of cash that the 46,000 users have on hand corresponds so closely to the price of gold. I'd guess that's buying occuring on dips.

Also, the distribution of cash has moved away from pounds towards euros. Seems like Brits have been buying gold or withdrawing cash, while Europeans have either been selling or charging their accounts. I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess it's the buying and charging option.

Any thoughts?

W.

Latest from the vault...

I'm still going for one more down trend before the upswing...

That's my thinking at the moment too... in the grand scheme of things, this correction has been pretty short so far.

Gold actually didnt drop in sterling today (when it dropped in USD). Did USD get stronger or GBP weaker?

Sterling got weaker (as did Euro on back of weak German export figures IIRC)

The pound tumbled to a 10-week low against the dollar on Wednesday amid signs of continuing deterioration in the UK economy.

 

Expectations heightened that the Bank of England would deliver its first back-to-back interest rate cut in seven years after its policy meeting today.

 

Nationwide bank’s measure of UK consumer confidence collapsed from 77 in March to 70 in April, a fresh record low. Meanwhile, data showed UK industrial output fell 0.5 per cent in March, confounding expectations for a slight rise.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3dccf6f8-1c1f-11...0077b07658.html

Bullionvault update.... hot off the press of Bullionvault's daily audit: no net increase or decrease to BV bullion holdings. Accounts have been further charged by about $1m since last week. Gold buying is showing signs of abating and account balances don't seem to be ratcheting up quite as quickly as they were. Outlook: Joe Public playing a waiting game?

If we don't know the size of the Fed's gold reserves, isn't this like the monetary version of Schrödinger's cat?

The fed is simultaneously solvent and insolvent, until you open the box and see what's inside.

The logic sounds good -but without a firm idea for how much bullion (and liabilities) a central bank has, the numbers are purely hypothetical. Are there any credible estimates of how much the Fed is sitting on?

It looks like it might be a good bet to say that the price of an average UK house could eventually come down from the 700 ounces peak to 300 ounces or less.

Could go lower....Goldfinger's looking for an average UK house at 100oz as a theoretical top for gold, IIRC.

http://goldismoney.info/forums/archive/ind...p/t-195370.html

The sites I linked earlier were via GF too, so he's probably got the best handle on the house price / gold price situation.

Sorry to interrupt the thread but does anyone know where I could download the historical price of Gold in pounds sterling? I would like for as far back as is possible and monthly data would be fine. I'm looking to plot average UK house prices when priced in Gold to see if there is a historical average/trend. Perhaps this has already been done on HPC or here, but otherwise I think it would be very interesting

 

Thanks!

Don't know about the data series, but charts of that kind of thing here...

http://gold.approximity.com/gold_GBP_monthly_since1952.pdf

http://gold.approximity.com/gold_vs_property.pdf

Thanks Pluto. Very helpful!

I'm trying to get a handle on the gold lease rates in my addled wheelybin brain. Can I run my questions and ruminations by you experts and see if they make sense?

I'm thinking that you would tend to lease gold only if you wanted to short it. i.e. borrow the gold, sell it, buy it back later at the lower price, pay back the loan and pocket the profit. If you wanted to go long gold, wouldn't you simply buy and hold physical (or borrow fiat to invest in metal if you wanted gearing)?

Do the negative lease rates indicate a lack of borrowing demand and hence a reduced desire to short gold. In other words could it signal an upward price expectation?

Or looking at it from the supply side - the leaser's point of view - I ask myself why you would ever lend something at a negative rate? To encourage shorting by making it cheaper to do, thus suppressing the spot price?

Does that make any sense at all?

Another big hole in my knowledge here is the mechanics of leasing gold. If you borrowed 10 tonnes, would you repay 10.5 tonnes for instance? Or is interest paid in cash on the spot price.... and in this case is it payable on the spot price when the loan is taken out or when it is paid back?

Whatever happens in the price charts, I can see a learning curve that is heading vertical.

-edit: clarity

Not entirely sure I understand the relationship between lease rates and spot prices. I've been reading some opinions that regard it as a bullish signal, others bearish and some that it's manipulation. Any enlightenment on the subject would be much appreciated.

In the meantime, I found this which is interesting...

The Effect of Lease Rates on Precious Metals Markets

http://www.lbma.org.uk/publications/alchem...ch29_Leases.pdf

...It is interesting to note however, that an oversupplied spot market does not necessarily mean that the lending market is oversupplied (nor vice versa). Remember that during the late 1990s, when gold prices were declining from $400/oz in early 1996 to $255/oz by mid-1999, the spot market was awash with gold - but lease rates were higher then than they are now...