jinbal

 

below is excerpt from http://www.getmoneyrich.com/gold-is-not-an-investment-but-a-speculative-asset/ There are some compelling counter debate/s there for consideration.

 

Nothing surprising in that article - my understanding is that he is saying that negative real interest rates cause gold to rise and positive real interest rates cause gold to fall - when real interest rates go +ve I and I have no doubt others will look for better "yield" perhaps away from gold.

The question is when that will be - According to his table, based on official UK CPI figure (if you believe that) interest rates would need to be above around 5-6% nominal to start affecting gold. Do you genuinely believe that IR's are going back to anything like that soon, given the BOE (and the Fed) seem committed to use thin money printing to surpress them as long as need be and if they did rise that high it would almost certainly cause property prices to fall, thereby creating new "yielding" opportunities.

If and when there is a genuine "recovery" (i.e. debt paid or written off to allow productive investment) I hope I'm smart enough to be amongst the first to start looking for new opportunities - sadly I dont see that happening anytime soon given the debt problems and the appetite for bailouts.

Strange to feel relief at a fall like this, but that's exactly my sensation at the moment. Maybe, just maybe, I'll be able to buy under £1000 just one last time.

+1

It's nice to see some of the froth blown off and have the price action approach good solid tech support. I always get nervous when I see spikes up (although I do enjoy them....:-))

hmmm could see a bit of a bounce here

 

Thar she blows....

back to the 38 fib

 

 

Next stop, the break out at the 50 fib and the break out at around 1710 ??

hmmm could see a bit of a bounce here

back to the 38 fib

Next stop, the break out at the 50 fib and the break out at around 1710 ??

Who's been buying gold above $1800? Anyone here?

I'm not buying bullion as it's too far away from its EMA's (50/150)

I bought a bit more GDXJ today

I've been using the real price of gold (Gold:CRB) as an indicator toward profitability - the ratio has spiked above the level it was at in early 2009. Of course it could just be a panic spike which is why I'm nibbling bit by bit. Also GDXJ is just off it support level at the lower end of the range so it looked like a decent entry point, I'll increase size if price dips.

Thanks PD - very useful

 

Gold topped on 20th Feb 2009, 2 weeks before the stock market bottomed.

 

 

I just checked my proprietary DBDT indicator and it gave a buy signal on GDX by the close of trade on 10th August. That's quite interesting for me since historically my indicator has been reasonably accurate with GDX.

 

GDX buy signal 10th August;

 

 

GDX 1 year;

 

 

 

 

Also a buy signal on XAU (Gold/Silver index)

 

 

If gold remains at elevated levels and crude remains suppressed then I would certainly think there is a strong chance of a very large upward breakout for the gold miners.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB:$GOLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79568295049

 

thanks

Does this not show that the price of commodities has broken out (down) against gold. The last this happened was at the major low for gold stocks in 2009, the move from there was pretty strong.

Thoughts?

Does anyone have an up to date chart of the Commodities Index:Gold - i.e. Bob Hoye's real price of Gold. I remember him talking about a high real proce of Gold being a bullish driver for miners (as they're costs are lower in relation to gold).

Thanks

Here's the latest sterling gold chart. Is it about to get unruly to the upside or is it ready to break down from the rising wedge?

 

 

Any thoughts Bubb?

My thoughts (FWIW) are that it it fails to hold the down move will be aggressive i.e. a fake breakout out falls hard

Does anyone know of a pound denominated junior gold mining ETF or similar?

 

Is that T1PS fund the only thing out there of this type?

What I'd like to know is if there is a product similar to GDXJ that is allowed in my ISA (I know some of the individual companies are but I don't have time for dud diligence on each one).

I guess I should compare the holdings and management fees of T1PS to GDXJ to see how similar they are?

BTW: What sort of prices are you seeing (per square foot)?

I won't be buying, I'm just curious.

I'm a Handsworth lad!! Thankfully I moved to London when I was 0 years old.

My Cousin live in Sutton ColdField Brum, the ppsf is around half of that of London and IMO represents good value as the houses in this area are large and you get a lot of outside space, I've often thought that if London ppsf was the same I would have no issue with buyingc

I'm a Thames lover, so I've liked the thought of Weybridge.

 

But it might be a little too suburban?

Kingston or Teddington may be slightly better then? I'm eventually looking to go back to Kingston as it is family friendly - trouble is lots of other people have the same idea - it's upsetting to be priced out of family houses in the town you grew up in.....

Buyers are families with children late 30s early 40s who, for the most part, by accident of birth, were buying their 1st properties in the mid 1990s. Thus they got in at the bottom and, even though they may have increased the size of their mortgage, will all have huge amounts of equity, as they have moved up the property ladder. Career-wise they are enjoying their best years 35-45, so earnings are good. And repayment-wise they are all feeling rich as the low rates of the last three years have meant their monthly repayments have been next to nothing.

 

So they have benefitted the most from circumstance.

I totally agree with this - I was about 4-5 years too late to be in a similar position although I have benefitted from the rise

The reason that he knows this about them is prob because a lot of his aquaintances/ mates are those people

Well, this accurately reflects my experience of London.

 

No HPC here:

 

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/art...ow-in-hendon.do

 

The average detached family home hits the £1m mark -

In south west London (and many other places) there is a 2 tier market - family sized homes which are in relatively short supply and flats which imo are in massive oversupply, more continue to be built which is beneficial to renters like me as it should put downward pressure on rents. 2 bed flats seem to be particularly abundant.

The prices for flats are still below their 2007 peak in most parts of London I reckon.

Blimey - gold just shot up by about 2% in USD, and GBP.

 

Any ideas why?

From a technical perspective POG in USD and GBP have tested their MT moving averages and uptrendlines, coupled with the charts showing them slightly oversold, means that they're pretty ripe for a bounce here, we'll have to see if that follows through to form the "bottom" of this correction.

Halifax Dec 10 -1.3% MoM

Today looks to be a big day again for silver, will it hold the uptrend that has been in place since August 2010?

 

On my chart thats a no, I'd look for a retest of the trend line from the other side then a further decline to next support level.

If the pattern repeats, yes, or maybe a slightly higher region would be retested. Will the pattern repeat? Not so sure. The pattern can't go on forever.

look at the chart I'd say that if it did pull back to that region, 1200 - 1250 would provide the first region of strong support.

Does this plot indicate that a significant period (1yr?) of consolidation/correction is in order?

 

I'm not suggesting, just asking about how you interpret this plot.

To me, if the pattern repeats it would come back to retest the red circled area/the midway point of the move.

Looks like $1300 is the next stop.

Now that would be pushing it.

 

Could see 1250 though.

anywhere between 1300 and 1250 would put POG nicely in the buy zone:

between some MA's

At or near stronger support zones

At or near rising trendlines

Mr T talking gold on Bloomberg

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mr-t-talks-gold-bloomberg

Is the top in?

That looks like what is happening.

 

Well a move has started - too early to say how it'll play out

Also there is very little chart support until 1250-60 (the initial breakout) - where it is strong - I happen to think that if the bullish retest fails thats where we're going - I may nibble a bit there, but any larger buys would be when price approaches the 50EMA and more so whilst its between the 50 and 150

As you can see by the graph below we have already broken out of the ascending wedge pattern and the cup and handle.

I'd really like to see bullish confirmation with a pullback and retest of the ascending upper line of the rising wedge. It would also allow some "steam" to work off.