avid tea drinker
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Posts posted by avid tea drinker
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See, I'd put that down as an absurd piece of denial.
Fiat has not just surged 20% against gold. Gold has fallen 20% against fiat. Just as gold more than doubled against fiat before that. Gold is a turbulent market, and to deny that just seems fatuous to me.
Let's examine the facts, then see who is really in denial.
Bloomberg headline: Silver, Oil, Wheat, Copper plunge as Dollar's rebound Saps commodity boom.
ie everything else is turbulent against the dollar, or the dollar itself is turbulent. Am I just being stupid, or what?
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This is going to be interesting to watch.
If this really is the end of the bull, this thread could be a study in cognitive dissonance as denial as people downgrade their previous lowest expectations and keep predicting an upswing.
However as a relatively dispassionate observer, my observation would be this. What we are seeing is a reminder of how shockingly turbulent gold can be (maybe because of interventions, but more likely because of the size of the market and the degree to which sentiment swings it). I've seen a graph here where an upswing in gold through the autumn is extremely common. And I believe there is going to be plenty more scary financial and international news this autumn. So an upswing still feels more likely to me than not.
My worry would be the degree to which deflationary forces are starting to drag money available for all investment down. Gold may turn out to be some kind of insurance simply because its value doesn't collapse to quite the same degree as other popular options such as shares and property. People are going to lose a lot of money from bad property investments and companies are going to collapse*. Gold might just bumble along in this region, not doing quite what you'd hoped but still protecting your wealth better than some alternatives.
Good luck to those of you holding anyhow. Must be a slightly unnerving period, but hopefully you like rollercoasters, and the next uphill stretch might be close.
* FWIW - I don't have huge amounts of money and most of mine is in my property - right now that isn't working out so great either as I haven't been able to remortgage and that is making life a little tough, so I hope I won't be showing any schadenfraude if gold has its own problems.
INCORRECT
What we are seeing is how shockingly unstable currencies can be. That is why ALL commodities are 'shockingly unstable' at the moment
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Well I just did... Doubled up my holdings at $12.5 just after 8am
Average price paid now £7.48 ($13.9 at current exchange rate)
Will double up again if it hits 10 dollars ...but I already see some silver blood on the streets, and sterling is collapsing
That's the spirit! I only buy physical and I'll bet that, come morning in New York, I will not be able to buy at these levels.
Great forum, think I will settle in here quite nicely!
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
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And the real world consequences are shortages (long waits for product - like a soviet food line) + mining is unprofitable (so stocks have not participated for years)