gabriel959

Gold down this morning quite a lot - now down to $1680 or £1080.

So do I : At $1500-1600, I would be buying aggressively in all probability.

But do not rule out prices below that - which is exactly my point, because "anything can happen"

 

If/when we crack $1600, I will be telling you about how I am buying, and what I am doing to protect the risk of lower prices

Physical or the paper one? It seems like the split from paper gold to physical gold prices is coming soon with the MG Global demise and the consequences that is causing.

But the policy response can only be one thing, no?

 

An therein lies my cause for concern: Gold for collapse! Gold for bailout! Gold for all seasons! So why are we off the highs? Why has gold started to mirror equity market moves on a short to medium term basis? Recoveries must mean higher rates; hardly bullish for gold, unless inflation outpaces nominal rates in recovery: Gold for recovery!

 

Maybe it is all margin call related? But in the back of my head all I keep hearing is that old chestnut : "When a market fails to rise on good news, it's time to sell."

 

In recent times much of the financial blogoshpere has been given over to the inflation / deflation (and biflation) debate. But now, for gold, it seems to me an new debate is emerging: that of risk-on, risk-off. Gold, the ultimate safe haven, should be part of the risk-off long trade. However, for the past ~3 months, thanks to its inverse dollar relationship, gold has been copying the path of risk-on long assets.

 

So what can make a risk-off asset a risk-on asset? My feeling: price. And that brings me back to that old chestnut.

 

Anybody else worried about these aspects?

Very interesting post - thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Is this happening because of the separation of the Paper gold from the Physical gold?

I do appreciate Bubb's posts but apart from very few voices I haven't seen any important investor shorting gold. A lot of respectable and successful investors are long on gold like many of us are.

I will of course sell if I see a long lasting positive trend appearing in the economic front.

the rally is over as you can see, its come down to $1735...

thanks, anything else apart from sovereigns that is worth buying?

I prefer full sovereigns or 1 oz coins, I guess fractionals, 1/4 and 1/2 sovereigns may be easier to sell when gold reaches say $3-4000 oz, but I don't think this is a medium term concern. Buy whatever gives you the most bang for your buck IMO.

Oh well bought some 1/2 in the end as I didn't have any and thought they would be more manageable.

Hopefully I will be able to get some more before the end of the year.

FWIW, if your buying in sterling for a long term hold, then I think your downside risk is minimal. The GBP has held it's value remarkably well, gold is about 10% off it's highs and sovereigns have enduring appeal.

 

Yesterday, I took delivery of a 2012 Proof Gold Sovereign from the Royal Mint. I normally buy bullion sovereigns, but I can't resist the one-offs, now have proof 1989, 2002, 2005 and 2012 sovereigns.

 

http://www.royalmint...CFQEMfAodmFeEhw

Thanks for the reply.

Medium term more than long term hopefully as my wife wants to buy a house. I understand the panics we might go over in the next few weeks and month so I just want to be sure that we are well covered.

Those limited editions look nice buy they do cost a FORTUNE!

I am buying in Sterling (I live in the UK). Do you think Half Sovereigns are worth it? I haven't got any.

Do you guys think it is a good idea to buy more gold even at current prices? I was thinking on adding a few more sovereigns from CoinInvest.

if you are in the uk then it must be sovereigns - they are free from capital gains tax and are also not much above spot. also, easy to sell as everybody knows what a sovereign is.

 

 

as for the wider market its interesting that gold is not being hit by the stock collapse like it was in 2008.

Thanks for the help. Already hold some just not physical.

What about the English Rose and Half Sovereigns. Are they good buys?

Hi guys,

I want to buy a bit more gold for the months ahead just in case, in this case I want to get a bit of physical. I was looking at Coin Invest. Has anyone got an idea of what is worth buying there?

I was thinking Canadian Maple Leafs. Any other ideas? or are bullion bars a better bet?

Thanks!

I am happy sat on the sidelines watching the show unfold. I largely keep my opinions to my self these days regarding the state of the housing market and UK economy. If it ever makes sense to buy, I will buy. If not I shall keep my powder dry and evaluate my options in other parts of the world, given that I have a pessimistic outlook for the standard of living in the UK over the next 5 - 10 years.

My wife wants to buy but I have kept her at bay till now. I reckon I have until this time next year to start making a decision.

Hopefully we should start seeing prices going down again in the next few months.

Hi Eiji

Of course, but it's such a classic piece of daily express-ism it needs preserving (so we can have a laugh at it in a year's time).

May be so, but to make things worse, houses are selling like hotcakes here in Cambs. A friend of ours put their house on the market for £195k (from a peak price of £200k?!!??) and they have just Sold STC. There are loads of properties in Sold STC state in Cambridge.

I just wish this house price crash hurried a bit, I want to get a house for my wife and kid at a reasonable price