Jump to content

glass

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    96

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by glass

  1. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    BOE QE to the tune of £75,000,000,000 and gold moves £14/t.oz and now it's only up £3/t.oz since the announcement... WTF! Why hasn't gold reacted to a drop in Sterling? BTW - I don't accept "It was already priced in" as an answer...

     

    someone must have been selling

  2. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    What I wonder is, if Gold does go to $10,000 an ounce, how will people with gold be better off? What can a normal person realistically do with gold other than wait until things normalise again and then sell it for the new currency that comes in?

     

     

    Pay off any debts - that's my plan (mortgage).

     

    $1821 at bullion vault we're past that Sinclair figure now :D

  8. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    just had someone buy £250,000 worth of gold using the referal link from my site on BV (see sig). Comission I made: £100 I guess it was a repeat purchase as this seems a little low. Looks like the sheep are starting to wake up :)

     

    If anyone wants to write article's / posts on the site below I'll split any future commisions. My lack of authority on the subject and knowlege are not helping my site however it does rank 3rd on google for "buy gold online"

  17. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Some charts posted here yesterday showed how well gold has tracked EUR:USD - but only since the US started lowering interest rates this last year or so.

     

    Money week has today written an article on how the EURO is about to tank...

     

    *******************************************

    We've been more than a little downbeat on the outlook for most 'developed' economies for a good while now. So it's been no great surprise to see that the rest of the financial pundits are finally coming round to the idea that the global economy is heading for trouble.

     

    But while there seems to have been more or less a straight fight between the States and us as to who actually plunges into a recession first, within the last few weeks another strong contender for this dubious prize has emerged. The eurozone now looks like it could get a dose of recession before either the US or the UK.

     

    That means the euro could well be about to fall off its perch and join the ever-lengthening list of the world's ill currencies. That'd be good news for the dollar - and maybe even the pound

     

    Anyone who has been keeping an eye on Spain's troubled economy won't be too surprised to see that the eurozone is really struggling. The Hispanic housing market is collapsing - sales are down 34% from the peak, say the latest official figures - and the banking system is on the brink, according to Morgan Stanley.

     

    "A momentous economic slowdown in Spain is now under way, though just in the beginning stages, with the bulk of the pain to be suffered in 2009", says the investment bank, going on to warn that "the probability of a crisis scenario similar to the early 1990s is increasing".

     

    Meanwhile unemployment has already reached 10.4% and the country's finance minister recently admitted that: "the economic situation is worse than we all predicted" we thought it would happen slowly but it has hit fast".

     

    It's not just Spain. In Ireland too, house prices are tumbling, with Dublin seeing double-digit falls. New housebuilding has hit a five-year low. And over in Italy, things aren't so hot on the economic front either. Last weekend Prime Minister Berlusconi said he would now be slashing government spending as tax revenues have slumped.

     

    But let's be fair here. Trouble in these countries isn't exactly a surprise - Ireland was heading for trouble from the moment it joined the eurozone, as low interest rates poured petrol on an already blazing economy. Spain was the same. And as for Italy, it's rarely far from economic strife.

     

    Surely the countries at the real core of the eurozone - France and Germany, in other words - are looking a bit more stable? Well, it seems not. After holding out pretty well during the first half, by mid-July, business confidence was declining abruptly, as the German ZEW economic sentiment indicator suddenly plunged, unexpectedly, to a record low. French business confidence has also dropped away.

     

    Then last week, the overall eurozone activity survey plummeted much more sharply than the 'experts' had expected, to its lowest point since March 2003.

     

    What's more, European companies are starting to default on their debts, says Dresdner Kleinwort, which believes that as many as 6-7% of corporate borrowers may fail to pay their debts on time within the next year. That's a tenfold increase in the estimate since June and, says Moody's Investors Service, the highest default rate since July 2003. Add in Tuesday's 0.6% drop in retail sales for the region, and the picture we're seeing emerge isn't at all pretty. Because things have got worse so fast that the eurozone now looks like a racing certainty to beat us Brits into recession.

     

    It all points to a sell-off in the euro. Sure, the alternatives may not be great, with both the US and the UK apparently competing to see which can prove the bigger basket case, but to quote one of the oldest market truisms around, currencies are a 'zero sum' game.

     

    If one falls, another has to rise. And while it's very hard to make a convincing case for the dollar, or indeed the pound, all the signs from the continent are that the euro faces even more problems.

     

    Pimco bond fund manager Bill Gross recently said he sees no reason for "the euro's 25% to 30% overvaluation against the US dollar", while BNP Paribas also declared: "we're turning incredibly bearish on the euro." It's starting to feel like the dollar, currently trading at around $1.55 to the euro, might just be bottoming out against its continental European cousin. And maybe sterling, which over the last five years has tended to move more or less in line with the buck, could get a ride on its coat tails.

     

    *******************************************

     

    ...I personally think the very different interest rates in Eurozone and US, and the different remit of the two CBs (US to promote growth, ECB to fight inflation) means that the Dollar and Euro are now in the ratio they should be. Yet BOTH will weaken further relative to an international basket of currencies.

     

     

    Enter Iran.....to prop up the Euro by switching its pertol dollars.

×
×
  • Create New...