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jamesspeed

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Posts posted by jamesspeed

  1. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Australia's May Trade Surplus Widens on Overseas Shipments of Coal, Gold

     

    Australia’s trade surplus widened in May as exports of coal and gold climbed on demand from Asia, outpacing a gain in imports.

     

    Exports gained 6 percent to A$24.7 billion, today’s report showed. Coal exports rose 10 percent and non-monetary gold jumped 66 percent.

     

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-06/a...-coal-gold.html

     

    and

     

    Missing from the Swiss central bank: CHF6.3bn

     

    "A look through the FX reserve data shows that much of the fall can be accounted for by an increase in gold holdings. The SNB’s gold holdings at market value went from 39.1bn to 45bn showing an increase of 5.9bn (gold measured in CHF terms was actually down by 4.8% during June). Thus instead of providing an indication of the SNB’s intervention stance, what we have is interesting insight into the SNB’s portfolio allocation which interestingly is showing a bias toward holding gold. It will be interesting if over the coming months the SNB also reveals the makeup of their FX reserves and whether they are showing a bias away from both USD and EUR and more toward GBP and other currencies (commodity linked) as a means of better diversifying their reserves"

     

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/06...-bank-chf6-3bn/

     

     

    Seems there is a lot of demand supporting prices ?

     

  5. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    As predicted by Dr B (?) and others, GBP is falling as fast/faster than Gold.

    All of which totally validates the do not wait for a dip if you are holding GBP approach.

    You could of course convert to USD and then to gold later but this is a big risk for someone who does not have a core position yet.

     

     

    If you are invested in Sterling - which, at this time, is the best to convert to $ short term ? , Euro ? , or something in Asia ?

  6. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Very fair points Jake but this is my reasoning - I traded silver back in 1999-2000 when it was around 5.5, on margin, and it dropped back to 4.25 or something and I lost my shirt, lost a lorra lorra money at the time - had I just sat at 5.5, we hit 21 8 years later - a fourfold increase. I also study the geopolitics and the chatter, and it is all pointing to an explosive move upwards. Now, having waited the best part of 10 years for a ten-bagger, I am not about to position myself OUT of the market (in cash, even 30 per cent) at this point in time - when the bank holiday or black swan comes, it will be like a thief in the night - no one will know when, without inside information. Now, if I am all in at this juncture, I may have a ten-bagger, or at least double or treble my stash. If, on the other hand, I try to trade a FIXED game, both in terms of the dollar and in terms of the criminal CRIMEX and LBMA bourses, then yes I may get lucky - these are pretty much 50:50 decisions, go long or short on silver and/or the dollar - sure, if I got LUCKY I may make a few more percent in toilet paper FRNs - whoopee!!! Actually, no, not whoopee, because the downside is HUGE, and the upside is just a few K more dollars at best. Also, playing these trades does not come cheap - you are setting yourself up for CGT and you have to pay as much as 5% in bullion premiums to get in and out - if you just buy bullion and hold, no commission. Overall the risk/reward situation right now I feel is heavily in sitting tight and not trying to get clever trading. Should silver crash again, I can afford to wait for the rebound and future march up. Should silver shoot to 100 or even 50, pick a number, you will never get an entry point again that does not make you feel sick.

     

    Yes I can understand - I have been invested in gold stocks for the last 5 years and have taken the rises and falls but sold to cash 4 weeks ago on the advice of a broker , and so am down about 30% - so am hoping that RH and DrB are right about a stock market correction and a pull back in prices ( I think they are ), but I am now sweating !-Not worth the worry and better to stay invested -.But I think one still needs to set a target to sell - there will always be people expecting higher prices - but unless there is total chaos gold prices will peak at some stage and then fall quickly- perhaps in the next 2 years .

  7. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    To be honest I got out of Gold Shares 3 weeks ago - just at the wrong time , so am hoping for a good pull back to get back in / Perhaps this Friday will be the start of a market correction , with gold and stocks lower , $ higher .

     

    I do think that Gold has perhaps gone up too fast too quickly , before inflation is showing any signs - and if there is a market crash as many are predicting the $ should rise as all else falls .

     

    This just about sums it up

     

    Gold may hit $1,100/oz over next 6 months: GFMS

     

    http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNe...E58D3IJ20090914

  8. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    That's what you think. :)

     

    To be honest I got out of Gold Shares 3 weeks ago - just at the wrong time , so am hoping for a good pull back to get back in / Perhaps this Friday will be the start of a market correction , with gold and stocks lower , $ higher .

     

    I do think that Gold has perhaps gone up too fast too quickly , before inflation is showing any signs - and if there is a market crash as many are predicting the $ should rise as all else falls .

  14. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Chazza -- go you!

     

     

     

    I think the dollar will go up in the crash, and gold down. That's the short-term. And then, it will turn. Dollar will crash and gold will go up.

     

    So short term , say next month or so , sell gold and then reinvest after the correction .

  16. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Everyone now seems to be calling for an upside breakout - Chris Locke on cnbc this morning said he expected up upside breakout -I cannot find any negative views at this time - Also most people are calling on a weaker $ , which should be positive for Gold

     

    appart from Dr B ? I still remain v.cautious - if there is a stock market crash I think the $ will quickly go up and gold down -

     

    Any other short term views ?

  18. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    That 10-level (Dow/Gold) looks rather important.

    It looks like we have rallied up to "kiss it goodbye"

     

    I expect to Gold to fall with stocks for a few days, before it "finds its feet" and rallies

     

     

    What about Gold Mining Shares - I am expecting gold to fall along with the markets as the $ strengthens , how low will it go ? down to 850? before a bounce .

  25. GOLD

    in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs

    Posted

    Yep, totally agree with all that. Prepare and plan as well as you can for you and your family. (Personally, I may well be moving to Chiang Mai myself soon - that's the area in Thailand Faber has land in, I believe.)

     

    You cannot legally own land in thailand - I believe Vietnam and Malaysia are more friendly .

     

    There are ways though to be reasonably secure with your investments in Thailand if you take good advice /

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