grasslizard

Thousands of home owners with a Bank of Ireland or Bristol & West mortgage face steep increases to their monthly mortgage repayments from May, as the lenders plan to double interest rates on some home loans.

Despite the Bank Rate staying at 0.5pc for four years, the Bank of Ireland has invoked "special conditions" that allows it to increase the margin by which its tracks this rate.

http://www.telegraph...-customers.html

Wonder how many other banks will invoke "special conditions"?

2nd article in 2 weeks on the Telegraph website on manipulation in the gold market. Are we being 'prepared'?

The price of gold has been manipulated. This is more scandalous than Libor

Gold price manipulation may well be the next big scandal to break – if it does, this time nobody can say that they were not warned.

It looks like someone else is stocking up on the shiny stuff: FT Alphavilla

Riyadh: There has been an unprecedented demand for gold in the Saudi market recently, with over 13 billion Saudi riyals (Dh12.75 billion) being spent on the yellow metal during the last two weeks.

It seems to be just local investors (not the government) snapping up the gold — about $3.5bn worth.

Analysis of the COT data from www.cotstimer.blogspot.com

Monday, August 18, 2008

Markets Lean Bullish for Commodities, Indecisive for Equities

 

Are commodities finally done? Are equities back for good? Not so far, says regulatory data issued Friday. The latest Commitments of Traders report, which highlights trillions in dollars of positioning in over 100 markets, suggests the U.S. dollar is still in trouble, that commodities may have bottomed (at least temporarily) and that equities face more headwinds. You can check out my signals from my trading setups based on this data at the table linked here. Also see my newly updated portfolio page for my latest positions. Some highlights:

 

- Still no sign of better times from my trading setup for the S&P 500. The commercial traders remain decisively negatory with their net position as a percentage of the total open interest. My commercials signal is in bearish mode. The other signal in this setup - based on fading the small trader total open interest - is in bullish mode. Since these two signals don't agree, this setup remains in cash. As well, because of the three-week trade delay for both signals, there is no possibility of a new signal before Sept. 12 at this point.

 

- My Russell 2000 setup has gone bearish for this week. But I should note this is a short-term trade that will last only one week. This is another combined setup that follows the signals of two groups of traders, when they agree. Based on the trade delays for the two signals, the overall setup will either go to cash or bullish as of the open, Aug. 25.

 

- My setup for silver is in bullish mode and is showing the second-most bullish reading in relation to historic positioning since the data started in 1995. The commercial traders are now 2.7 standard deviations above the moving average I use for this setup in their net position as a percentage of the total open interest in silver futures and options. This, coupled with the fact that commercial traders in the U.S. dollar index are at a historic extreme in their bearish positioning, suggests the recent rally in the greenback is done (at least for now).

Very interesting article in the Telegraph today: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...2/ccview102.xml

Highlights:

Argentina is defaulting on its sovereign debt yet again, this time by stealth. The official Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 8.9pc. The true inflation rate is more than 25pc, according to union staff of the statistics office.

 

"Easy money is the culprit," says Joachim Fels, chief economist at Morgan Stanley.

 

"Weighted global interest rates are 4.3pc, while global inflation is above 5pc. The real policy rate in the world is negative. Central banks are both fuelling and accommodating the rise in food and energy prices," he said.

 

"Governments that have repeatedly inflated away or defaulted on their debts will, in all likelihood, not hesitate to default again," she said.

 

Never buy a bond until you know who runs the statistics office.

Of course this only applies to emerging markets doesn't it.....

These trusts have fallen sharply over the last few days and are looking very tempting (as they were around Christmas).

Does anyone know whether the sell off is just linked to the general market sell off or if there another reason?

PS enjoyed the latest natural gas CWR show, excellent work.