klogger

 

Thought this was not a bad post by one of the mods on Project Avalon, a bit diiferent

 

An interesting idea that certainly sounds plausable. I do however wonder:

• if evidence of such organised activity really exists? The Zionists, Jesuits and Rothchilds are easy tags to put on such a nefarious schemes. But trying to work out if they really exist in such an organised fashion is neigh-on impossible;
• Aren't the Chinese encouraging their population to hold the gold independently of the state by introducing vending machines selling bars? That would seem to be in conflict of a Rothchild controlled state trying to corner the PM markets.Why encourage the population and open their eyes to the importance of gold as a monetary system if you really want to take it away from them. The Indians are also well known for holding PM's due to their understandable distrust of their political elites. I could see such a scheme taking many, many decades to come to fruition;
• A large part of the world is already in the thrall of debt-based money and I expect that relitivly few people would understand the nature of PM's as a monetary asset. Are the numbers of people that do understand not so small as to not be worth the Rothchild's time? It seems to me they have already won the battle in the western world!
• If they are successful in cornering the market, won't people just switch to another substitute such as platinum, copper or BitCoin? How much can the elites gain from removing G+S from the radar?

Fantastic and educational. He had a great sense of humor about it, had to admire him. A good post for these tumbleweed days.

Conspiracy theories haven't been able to predict the price of gold for the last 3 years. I'm really pissed off with myself for not seeing the top in 2011 and I'm prepared to admit a lot of what I described as sinister shadows controlling the gold market, was actually a lack of knowledge and putting too much "faith" in others. I'm of the opinion that unless we work out where we all went wrong in 2011, we're likely to make the same mistake at the next peak.

 

Doesn't that worry you?

 

 

Good question. Especially for the amateurs like myself!

 

I also missed the top and wished that I had paid more attention to Dr. Bubbs warning at the time. I seem to remember that that peak came at 50% above the long term average. I was hoping for the same again and that would be my sell point. To far above the long term average should indicate a good profit point even if that isn't the top.

 

In May 2011 I extended the long term trend line till the end of 2014. I came up with the following figures:

 

 

Currency    Highest price     Long term average price     Increase (%)     Projected price 2014     Projected peak 2014
                                                                                                                 Jan 2014   Dec 2014     Jan 2014   Dec 2014
 
GBP              30.00                        13.57                           121                  26.79         31.00            59.20         68.51
USD              49.60                         22.64                          119                   37.88         43.41            82.85         95.06

 

Column explanation

 

* The Highest price is the highest price reached at the peak date of 25/04/2011;

* The Long term average price is the lower trend line price on the same day as the given highest price;

* The Increase is the % difference between the Highest price and the Long term average price;

* The Projected price 2014 is the projected long term average price based on the lower long term trend line;

* The Projected peak 2014 is the Projected price 2014 multiplied by the % Increase.

Obviously the dates were well off and although I haven't recalculated I am still hoping that the numbers are roughly right. I seem to remember that they coincided with various other 'experts' at the time.

Zero Hedge

 

 

Another "Conspiracy Theory" Bites The Dust: UBS Settles Over Gold Rigging, Many More Banks To Follow

Remember when everyone decried wholesale Libor manipulation as a crazy conspiracy theory ...

 

And finally, there was the precious metals market: a market which all the Keynesian fanatic paper bugs said was immune from manipulation, be it of the central or commercial bank kind, even with every other market clearly exposed for perpetual rigging either by hedge funds, by prop desks, by HFTs, or central banks themselves.

 

UBS is to settle allegations of misconduct at its precious metals trading business alongside a planned agreement between UK and US authorities and seven banks over accusations of foreign exchange market rigging.

 

The good news is that the FT will finally reinstate the Gold manipulation article which is penned in February then promptly removed following complaints from up high.

 

As for what happens next, the game is clear, because the only thing that can surpass the "developed world's" rigged markets is said world's "judicial" system: rigged far more than a $10 billion gold market sell order at 1 am in the morning. The TBTF, aka Too Big To Prosecute Banks will settle, paying out pennies on the dollar of the profits they made from rigging gold, silver, FX, libor, Interest rates, equities, and so on, and will lay low for a while until the rigging resumes.

 

Alas, we are far too deep inside the rabbit hole at this point to even pretend normalcy can ever again exist without the biggest systemic reset in history.

Does this signal a period of wait-and-see for you or do you remain mostly bullish with a little caution thrown in at the moment? The minor channel looks like it could drop to about 1200 within a couple of months.

I found this article interestng as I have been using the silver COT data to hold off buying while many of the mainstream silver commentators are turning bullish:

 

 

Myself and a few others – primarily GATA – have been suggesting for quite some time that While certain newsletter peddlers adamantly maintain the reports are accurate and honest in order to preserve their franchise, there’s nothing like the CFTC imposing a fine on JP Morgan for fraudulently reporting “large trader” data:

 

CFTC Charges JP Morgan With Reporting Fraud.
JP Morgan has finally been caught and sanctioned for playing games with its position reporting in gold and silver in order to hide the true magnitude of its unhedged short positions on the Comex.

 

 

The CFTC Order specifically finds that since at least 2012, the CFTC was notifying JPMS about errors in its large trader reports, which increased in frequency throughout the year. CFTC Regulations require FCMs to submit information on a daily basis for certain large traders, such as the number of open futures or options positions; the number of delivery notices issued or stopped; and the number of Exchange For Related Positions (EFRPs). In December 2012, the CFTC notified JPMS that the on-going problems were unacceptable. JPMS, relying on its third-party vendor that generated the reports for JPMS, assured CFTC staff that the problems would be resolved on or before the end of January 2013. However, JPMS continued to submit large trader reports that contained hundreds of errors throughout the period from February 1, 2013 to February 2014.

 

It does sound like they have been understating their short position though, so maybe I will get lucky in the end.

 

Thanks for the video it agrees with what I have been thinking of late. I think the gold bull is about to restart and have been positioning myself to take advantage of it.

 

There is a possibility of a major crash in the stock market and a resumption of the 2008 crisis, where everything gets sold off in a rush for liquidity. If that happens we could see gold drop for a final low.

 

It seems that is what Martin Armstrong has been talking about in his latest blog post, expecting the final low to appear not before Jan/Feb 2015 - http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/01/july-recap-of-few-markets/

 

 

Does that mean that you are expecting an upturn over the next few months and than the possible drop to a final low?

Thanks for the video, I appreciate the opinions of non-perma-bulls with vastly more experience than me. I am still sitting on the sidelines hopeing that the bottom isn't quite in yet - but I am nervous that I have missed another reasonable profit oppertunity! There is a lot of bullish commentary around but this chart has me wondering:

 

 

There is still a lack of bullishness from the commercials who, if I understand it correctly, are most often on the correct side of the trade.

Well, anything is possible, K.

 

But my view is that a Wave 2 correction just ended, and a nice Wave-3 up is now starting

 

I hope to do a new Video on it tomorrow

 

Thanks DrBubb, I did start reading a bit about Elliot Wave Theory a while ago but I never did spend enougth time wth it to get a grip on it.

 

The Good news is that the Gold-to-CRB Ratio seems to have made a convincing looking TURN off the bottom of the channel

 

I agree that the KWN crowd are almost all permabulls and that is the reason I stopped listening to them.

 

Has that chart not reached a temporary peak? There would seem to be resistance at 4.4-ish and the bollinger-band is also constraining any further upside in the short term. I would therefore anticipate a drop from here. I did miss the peak at £1900 though and just held. I wish I had listened to your warning then but ... live and learn - at least I should be able to recognise the next big peak and act accordingly.

It looks to me like it is all forming a nice base. With the news on potential interest rate rises and people getting more and more stretched I am hoping that the support will hold. This is a chart that I have been watching for many months now while waiting for an entry-point.

 

The green circle highlights a fib-fan (green line) which seems to be support and the fib-retrace (red line) is almost there. I am expecting another down for silver to about £10.75 (chart is priced in GBP). Volume seems to have been declining since May 2011although I have heard the NetDania volume is a little unreliable.

 

 

Thats looking to me like the beginnings of the mother of all head and shoulders!

 

That would make it like a scene from the Rocky films. Silver getting well and truely hammered against the ropes before hope sparks back into life and it begins to land a few punches on fiat. The current 2.5 year correction has been long enough for me, a symetrical H&S now would mean a drop to $8 over the next 2 years before a turn wouldn't it? and if that is corrent, is it possible to tell that an H&S is aborting?

$11 would be a bit of a bargain! I wonder if we will really see that?

 

Oops - I ran that chart in GBP so I think it will hit £11 or $18 (again) before taking off. Mistakes like that are why my avatar is so depressed!

I am still bearish based on the silver weekly chart and the long term trend which is currently downwards:

 

• Red lines are fib retraces;
• Green lines are fib fans;
• Purple line is 10 week MA.

 

Silver is right on all of these and I think they will push the price down to $11 before we see the next up-leg in silver. I think we will hit $11 by February-March 2014 - depressing though that is.

 

 

Golden Minerals suspends production

 

Friday announced that it has suspended all operations at its Velardena mine until prices for silver and gold “indicate a sustainable margin for operations“.

 

Gold is getting to the point where supply is being constrained, and that can only be bullish.

Jim Willie in this interview is claimng that there is a significant disconnect in the physical price and the paper price for sales of more than a tonne where the price is between $2000-$2500. He says that people who do not have that much to sell are stuck with the paper price added into the physical price which result in the current ~$1350 price due to the comex being flooded with paper metals.

Poor sentiment and at the bottom of it trading range will hopefully mean maybe one more minor drop to go before what is hopefully the next major move upwards. I got trapped in at a higher price and so I am waiting and twiddling my fingers until it recovers - why oh why didn't I choose the blue pill?

I don't understand your meaning here, but to be clear on mine:

 

According to the article predicting the price of gold is not a good idea, therefore the article is implying that one should not invest in gold. My personal opinion is that those who invested in gold have done reasonably or very well and therefore the article is wrong, but it is good to see it getting more mention in the MSM non-the-less.

An article in The Guardian about gold:

 

The Bank of England, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the world economy in a bid to prevent a global slump – and that has helped pump up the gold price.

 

...

 

But predicting the price of gold is essentially a mug's game

 

...

 

32.9

Tonnes of gold bullion owned by BullionVault's 45,500 users, worth over $1.68bn – more than the gold reserves of most countries. UK households make up half those users.

£562m

Value of physical gold owned by UK households via BullionVault - 10 times as much as they held in March 2008.

819%

Increase of number of gold bullion traders in the last five years.

 

Apparently we are all mugs

It looks a little too early to call for me as it may bounce of the 50DMA of several stocks:

 

 

 

ZSL reverse indicator (-2x leverage - opposite of AGQ)

 

 

 

But I don't think we are in a break out yet as the SP-500 managed a recovery when it dipped below the lower trend line of the rising wedge:

 

 

That's my tuppence for what it is worth.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/german-calls-for-gold-repatriation-intensify-as-fed-refuses-to-allow-inspection/

 

Calls for Germany to repatriate its 1,536 tons of gold reserves held at the NY Fed are intensifying as Der Spiegel reports the Federal Reserve has refused to allow German inspectors to even view the country’s massive gold reserves “in the interest of security and of the control process“.

 

Unlike the US financial MSM, the German media is willing to discuss not only the question of whether the Federal Reserve has absconded with Germany’s gold, but also the risk of a collapse of a fully fiat currency:

The debate over a collapse of strictly paper-based currency is experiencing a renaissance — as is the dispute over the gold reserves. Even Green Party financial expert Gerhard Schick has joined the fray: “I think the question of how much gold is available in an emergency is a valid concern.”

 

confidence in the Fed and the BOE has clearly been shattered, and it is now only a matter of time for an absolute mad run on every last gram of physical metal underneath the NY Fed ensues.

 

I don't see why the Germans don't built their own vault to store it. If they have a bill to pay in America then I would charge the Americas to ship the gold back there after the way the Fed is treating them. The Fed are acting very suspicious considering all the negative press they are receiving on this matter.

Well we wont have long to wait now to hear who win's

 

A small chance of up to 10 days according to Zero Hedge, but it does seem unlikley that Ohio will be the final decider of who wins so we will probably know much sooner:

 

This year Ohio sent absentee-ballot applications to about 95% of its citizens rather than require people to request one. Anyone who returned the application was then sent an absentee ballot, which then requires them to vote by the absentee ballot and not at a polling station.

If they do try to vote at a polling station they'll cast a provisional ballot which must then be held under lock and key for 10 days while the state waits to see if an absentee ballot had been received.

At the moment some are guessing that there could be 250K or more provisional ballots as a result of this. That large of a number could easily cause Ohio to not be able to project a winner if the voting is too close to call.

Hold onto your hats. It's going to go ballistic in Obama gets back in.

 

And apparently even quicker if Romney gets in, or so says Jim Sinclair:

 

Sinclair states that if Romney is elected and follows through on his threats to fire Bernanke, it would ”be the single greatest error made in US financial management ever”, and would result in gold trading above $3,500/oz and a complete US dollar collapse within 6-9 months!

 

The srticle was posted on the 4th November by which time I think the media were proclaiming that Romney was too far behind to catch up, so his call will probably never be tested. Still a nice chance to declare that 'by this time next year, we will all be rich!'

Get those rockets ready !

 

Clive Maund posted here that he was of the opinion that the USD was going to strengthen and the result would be a correction in the price of silver.

 

The main reason is the massive, staggering short position built up by the Commercials that we will look at lower down the page, which is thought to relate to a possible surprise big rally by the dollar

 

Silver has obviously double topped and corrected down to the 50% fib retrace level; the USD has not yet strengthened, but it has broken out of its downtrend and its MACD is looking promising:

 

 

Is it a sensible interpretation that a movement to a stronger dollar could cause a further drop in silver? I don't have the experience to say.

I find the positively geared AGQ instrument more suitable for me because if I get the trade wrong, ie, buy and watch silver decline further, I'm not too concerned as think the position will be salvaged due to silver being in a long term uptrend.

 

I think you are absolutly correct, maybe ZSL will be a better choice in a couple of years once silver is at $90-$100 and due a serious retracement.