duckwomanloulou
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Posts posted by duckwomanloulou
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wow!!! that's pretty cool...
This guy posts on ZH - not as a contributor but as a poster (he showed a picture of the back windscreen a few weeks back)!
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Nice... All time high in GBP@863.47/t.oz
Holy Smoke Batman!
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The big "either / or": are we approaching an intermediate term top in the price of Gold, or are we in the process of breaking out to new all time highs?
Here's a technical look. On the one hand there appears to be a bullish cup & handle formation that would project to about the $1,500 level, while on the other hand there appears to be a bearish ascending triangle pattern that suggests an imminent correction. Volume has been dropping off favouring the bearish scenario, but as we all know, a market can stay irrational for a long time.
DOUBLE POST
What time frame do you think will give us an indication of which way that this is going to go? I have a core position but have cash on the sidelines waiting for the crash down scenario but am beginning to think that a pull back is not coming this next month. My buy finger is getting very itchy even tho' we are not far off all time high prices in £!!
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Marc Faber see a correction of 20% to 30%
also warns about holding physical in US/ Switzerland (could apply to europe, as warned by cgnao)
Hasn't 'force majeure' already been activated by the banks in Switzerland? - I read it somewhere (probably here) that Switzerland is already considered unsafe and vast amounts were being removed from the vaults to Hong Kong (Far East holders).
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Edited out - doh!
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My holdings
40% Gold
10% Silver
50% Sterling
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Just to add my thoughts.......(not wanting to get into trading vs investing, or claim to know more than others)
I'd advocate being conservative and 'mulling things over' before either a purchase, sale or swap of PMs. Be aware of the temptation, when reading a daily comments forum, to overreact to small news and noise , and thus overtrade or dive in too early. Time in gold-land is measured in months not hours.
Gold moves IMHO in a seasonal cycle and in lengthy multi-year cycles, so I try not to rush any decision or act on the spur of the moment news - I always mull things over.......
My strategy, which I have said before, is to buy big once a year around end august time, averaging in over a month or so. I choose gold, silver or platinum or a bit of all depending on the G-to-S ratio, and the G-to-P and S-to-P ratios, which at the moment are a bit uninteresting and neutral (see my post a couple of pages before with the octopus for my chart !) I ultimately want only to own gold, but will buy the others if undervalued to increase my potenitial gold ozs. I also diversify into several currencies as I build my fiat pot over the year.
Last thing of all, I hate buying into strength, as it usually means Im buying at an interim top, and end up underwater until the bull market eventually rescues me
Thanks DCA and all others for replying.
Money has been moved across to GM in readiness for a buy but waiting till into Aug and probably a month from now before hitting the 'buy' button.
Still interested to hear other views if people would still like to share.
Lou
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Here's what's vexing me currently. We sold out all bar 5% of our gold & silver (that's in sov's & brits) pre Emergency budget because of the potential changes to CGT & to bank gains. We are now predominantly in cash - UK sterling (in 2 UK ethical banks so hopefully safer than the average bank). I'm watching the stock markets and the gold market and trying to figure out where we go from here and therefore how to invest again - the never ending inflation vs deflation debate
I keep reading about the imminent stock market crash and am beginning to form the view that if that is the way things play out that we will see a correction in Gold back sub $1000 Sept/Oct before the US fire up the presses for one last time following their Elections & we'll get one last leg up in Gold before we see Prechter's predictions start to look more realistic (edited to say: for a while maybe 12-18 months before it goes parabolic). I'm not looking to get flamed for this view I'm just sharing my limited opinion and looking for other views before I decide to hop back on the Gold & Silver train over the winter/spring once more.
Would love to know what you think particularly Dr B
Lou
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Interesting, the front page of the FT website has a headlining story about Britons buying sovereigns and britannias in large numbers to avoid CGT. I can't access as I don't have a subscription?
Media interest and the start of the mania phase (early stage)? Or softening up public opinion to remove what is described as a CGT 'Loophole'?
Scramble for gold coins to beat tax increase
By Javier Blas and Vanessa Houlder
Published: May 28 2010 21:08 | Last updated: May 28 2010 21:08
British investors are scrambling to buy sovereigns and Britannia gold coins in an attempt to use a tax loophole to avoid paying more capital gains tax.
Mark O’Byrne, of Gold Core, a London-based gold coins and small bars dealer, said it was selling sovereigns and Britannias “in the thousands”.
“This week we sold more than in any other one-week period,” he said. “The vast majority of the buying is related to CGT.”
The move comes as the government plans to raise CGT for items such as second homes and shares to rates “similar or close to those applied to income”, suggesting a rise from the current 18 per cent rate to nearer 40 or 50 per cent. The tax increase is likely to come into force next April but could be introduced on June 22 alongside the government’s planned emergency Budget.
UK-minted bullion coins are exempt from CGT as they are considered legal tender. Some investors are choosing to buy gold coins instead of other assets that would incur CGT.
Revenue & Customs says “sovereigns minted in 1837 and later years and Britannia gold coins are currency but, like all sterling currency, are exempt”. Coins that are currency but not sterling, such as South African krugerrands, are subject to CGT, the Revenue says.
Dealers said the rush by UK-based investors had pushed the premium of both coins above the spot gold price to about 7-8 per cent, up from 3.5 per cent at the beginning of May.
Spot gold in London traded on Friday at $1,215 a troy ounce, just below the nominal all-time high of $1,248.95 set this month.
The proposal to raise CGT was a concession to the Liberal Democrats after the Conservatives fell short of an overall majority in this month’s general election.
The plan has met with opposition from the Tory right. The Con-Lib coalition believes it will curb tax avoidance by people treating income as capital gains and will raise money to help fund a rise in income tax thresholds for low and middle earners.
Other countries have seen a rush into gold coins this month. After the €750bn (£638bn) eurozone bailout, German investors bought the most coins since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The US Mint, which produces one the most popular gold coins, has sold 184,000 one-ounce American Eagles so far this month, the most since January 1999.
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I don't think they will confiscate this time around: they will tax the living daylights out of your 'profits'. Look for a 50% capital gains tax on the proceeds of PM's. Gold holders will be as popular as bankers in the mainstream media. Whether you physically own it or not, they will 'confiscate' it from you at the point of sale.
+1
That's my thinking too.
If the black swan event predicted this year by some is the PM short squeeze triggering the next round of bankruptcies and failures then 'Goldbugs' would be easy targets for the media (the fact that some of us are just savers looking for decent returns on our investment & to protect our wealth will be quickly glossed over)
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Because too many people are still punting their money on property, building shares and bank shares. If you think about the different assets that the general public are going to speculate in then they are gold, shares and property.
1966 was a share peak
1973 was a housing peak
1980 was a gold peak
1989 was a housing peak
1999 was a share peak
2007 was a housing peak
2016/2017 should be a gold peak again - do you see the pattern?.
The inflationary Kondratieff summer is shorter, so the speculative peaks are a little closer at 7 years, whereas the low inflation Kondratieff autumn and deflationary (in assets) Kondratieff winter are more like 9 years.
My K-wave theory predicts a major low in stockmarkets in April/May 2013 - after the general public see their pensions and investments mullered for a third time since 2000 with yet another stock market crash, they will see what gold is doing because everyone is talking about it and give up on stocks and BTL.
Having gone through the whole of the 80's and 90's making handsome gains year after year (except for the brief crash of '87 that soon recovered) most baby boomers have never seen times like these in their investing lives. I think money will pour into gold and gold stocks from 2013 because it's making new highs and the second/longer part of the deflationary bust will be coming to an end with inflation then becoming the problem later.
Before all of this can happen though, gold will go through another deeper correction like it did in 2008 which creates another buying opportunity for the 5th wave up which is the mania phase.
Interesting stuff catflap!
Do you see the deeper correction in gold happening at the same time as the stock market low in 2013?
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Gold has shone the brightest over the past decade. It traded at $288 an ounce 10 years ago, Barclays Capital said. Last week, the spot price jumped to an all-time high of $1,217 — giving a stellar 323% return, or about 15% a year.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/inv...icle6945627.ece
Black Rock Gold & General has turned in one of the best performances among unit trusts, with a 733% return.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/inv...icle6945632.ece
Best performing asset class and best performing unit trust in the last 10 years .... However, Bond warned: “Stay away from gold in the longer term — other industrial commodities, such as copper and oil, are likely to give better returns.”
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An interesting report.
The Royal Mint have trebled their run of 2010 sovereigns to 250,000. I have never heard of NickJr. I looked them up on the internet and they broadcast, it seems, childrens programmes on satellite/cable TV.
Yep Nick Jr is for kid's on Sky/other satellite channels (my 2 were watching it when I saw the ad). Hence my confused look as hardly your target market but might be syndicated to all satellite channels so might see ads running on more mainstream (adult view) channels too I guess.
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Has anyone else seen the Royal Mint ad's now running on tv? Only noticed it today but thought it was interesting as this is the first tv ad I've seen talking about buying Gold and Silver rather than selling. They may just be running them pre Christmas as that was how the ad was positioned (Xmas gift for loved one etc). It was on NickJr
Lou
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Yep I agree - Auntie wasn't just talking about selling it.
The start of phase 3? -
For anyone that is interested the piece on Gold was on the One Show last night between 04.18 - 07.14 mins
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00p3...how_25_11_2009/
Adrian Ash from BullionVault interviewed
Lou
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Close to breeching the previous high in £'s
Is today the day that we start making new highs in GBP? Hope so.
Lou
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I dont post much on this forum
mainly because I have very little expert knowledge on the subject
although I do read it intensely and am learning a great deal
Just wanted to thank all the contributors for sharing and doing so
in such a polite and considerate manner
I also at times visit HPC as I notice a few on here also do
It really is the absolute pits in comparison
keep up the good work boys and girls ,your forum is a pleasure
+100
GOLD
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
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Nice video - very slick looking.
Already a customer so no complaints from me!