Erewhon888

Some of us pop in from time to time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-11/hayman-s-bass-says-hong-kong-property-market-is-in-free-fall

 

Kyle Bass, the hedge-fund manager who’s wagering on a slowdown in China’s economy, said Hong Kong’s property market is in “free fall” and the credit expansion in Southeast Asian emerging markets will unravel.

“Hong Kong’s in a worse position than it was in prior to the ’97 crisis today,” Bass said at the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference in Las Vegas on Wednesday. He said credit in Asian emerging markets has grown “recklessly,” citing Malaysia and Thailand.

Hong Kong property prices have declined and sales are hovering near a 25-year low as the city grapples with the repercussions of a slowing Chinese economy. Home prices have dropped about 13 percent from a peak in September, according to data compiled by Centaline Property Agency Ltd.

In March Little stated

 

 

We recently invested USD 300,000 for clients in a trusty Global Mining Fund but this tiny investment is nearly 5% of the fund, an uncomfortably large share. We know of 3 other gold funds collectively having total assets of well under USD 10mn. An orphaned sector indeed.

http://www.global-thematic.com/eflyers/diary_cover.htm

From slide 35 of the presentation it seems likely that was Blackrock Gold and General Fund.

http://www.fullertreacymoney.com/system/data/files/PDFs/2016/April/28th/IainLittle_MarketsNow25apr16.pptx is mostly gold and miners analysis after a few introductory slides.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-14/case-closed-deutsche-bank-confirms-silver-market-manipulation-legal-settlement-agree

 

 

the lead defendant, troubled German bank Deutsche Bank agreed to settle the litigation over allegations it illegally conspired with Bank of Nova Scotia and HSBC Holdings Plc to fix silver prices at the expense of investors

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=824487

In the final minutes Pierre Lassonde remarks on historical Dow / Gold ratios leading to a bullish conclusion

Sounds good. I've been wondering how best to reduce risk to various pension funds and looking at farmland and possibly property.

I'm very wary of any venture in the Philippines being owed a six figure sum that I do not expect to collect. I hope your arrangements are more secure.

Given this and other early stage ventures, I'm much more risk averse now and probably very overweight in gold.

so for roughly the same money as the above property you could have a 2000 sq ft three bed in HK

http://search.knightfrank.com/hkg152812

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsmjf02kjRQ viewed at 1080p looks quite appealing

Perhaps swapping a Hong Kong flat for this residence might suit a large family or one with regular guests?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-53084078.html

http://sluggerotoole.com/2016/01/25/limerick-tops-global-property-price-affordability-index-for-the-second-year-in-a-row/

 

The latest release of Demographia’s annual survey of house price affordability has created headlines for highlighting how chronically unaffordable property is in Hong Kong. Median property prices in the territory were a staggering 19 times median household incomes in the third quarter of 2015, a new record in the twelve years that the survey has been published. Hong Kong has beaten its own record set in 2014 of properties being valued at 17 times median incomes, which in itself beat the record it set in 2013 (14.9).

What hasn’t received quite so much attention is at the other end of the scale, properties which are affordable compared to median incomes. Remarkably, out of the 367 property markets tracked by the survey across nine countries over four continents, it is the property market in Limerick which is judged to be the most affordable.

The median property in Limerick in 2015 was €100,000, and with median household incomes in the area of €51,200, a typical house can be bought for less than two years’ worth of gross income, a fraction of the nineteen years’ worth of income a property in Hong Kong would cost.

Limerick’s house price multiple of 1.8 is the lowest multiple outside the United States over the period that the survey has ran, and even inside the United States the only markets with appreciably lower income multiples have been seen in the famously troubled real estate markets in Michigan (Flint, Detroit and Saginaw) in 2011 and 2012, and all have seen substantial rebounds since. In both 2014 and 2015, it has been the nearby market of Waterford which was the second most affordable property market, with an income multiple of 2.1 in 2015 (down from 2.2 in 2014).

The graph below shows a selection of house price multiples across the UK & Ireland. It is notable how, despite the ongoing boom in London property prices, compared to incomes they still haven’t reached the heights experienced in Belfast in 2007 (Belfast is the only Northern Ireland property market tracked by the survey).

And to put these markets in a global context, this chart shows Belfast, London, Dublin and Limerick compared with New York, Sydney and Hong Kong.

http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

Anyone else have gold falling 60 dollars in a minute to 1070 dollars at about 2.30am British time? Good to know that the free and fair gold market that we have all grown to know and love is still being tightly regulated.

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/weekly-view-of-gold.html

Trader Dan's view:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2657470/The-REAL-reason-children-afford-buy-house-How-Chinas-middle-classes-snapping-British-homes-Liverpool-Croydon-theyre-built.html

So, they were all winners: the estate agents, the developers, and the speculators, who had walked away with investments that are safer and promise higher yields than any other commodities — from blue-chip shares to gold bullion — according to a recent Knight Frank survey.

Investors such as Polly Ling, who has only been to Manchester once, 30 years ago, but agreed to pay £130,000 — in cash — for a one-bedroom flat at X1 The Exchange, in Salford Quays, after talking to Alice Macdonald for just 15 minutes. ‘It seems like a good city and London is too expensive now,’ she told me.

And Eva Leong, a divorced, 54-year-old accountant (and confirmed Beatles fan) who knew even less about Liverpool, but paid £65,000, again in cash, for a studio flat in the city, to add to the one she owns in London’s Barbican.

 

 

Thanks. I heard you mention you associate QE with the debt in your comments on the chart in your video.

Are there any other points of agreement or disagreement with Stephanie Pomboy's views?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKviBNo76iI

Stephanie Pomboy's chart from the linked presentation. I added the arrrows to highlight her point about inverse correlation after QE3 contrasting with positive correlation before.

Koos Jansen seems to be tracking this aspect regularly.

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/china-mainland-gold-import-accelerating

Year to date Hong Kong net gold export to the mainland stands at 957 tons, + 200 % relative to the same period in 2012.

 

I'd like to see a Bitcoin vs Gold chart. Seems the prices of gold is inverse to Bitcoin !

http://pricedingold.com/bitcoin/

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4922/proposal-restoring-economic-vitality-our-crumbling-cities

would seem to fit in here.

Seems they are still looking for a better offer.

In mid-2012 the asking price was 525000.

Hard to estimate the rental but the auction is tomorrow and the actual price achieved will be interesting to see.

Property Features:

• 7 Bed Detached 10,000 sq. ft. Approx. Rent £3,000pcm
   
  
• Comparable: Mount Pleasant, Gilford on Market for £750,000
   
  
• Drawing Room/Dining Room/Living Room/Library/Games
   
  
• Room/Kitchen/4 En Suites/Bathrooms/Cellar/Swimming
   
  
• Pool/Guest Annex/Grade B1 Listed Georgian Property
   
  
• OFCH/Ideal family Home
  

Property Description:

Mature Gardens in Lawns c. 1 Acre/Parking Areas 'Glynn Park' is one of the most important houses in the Carrickfergus area, dating back to the 1600's. It is in need of modernisation throughout and will appeal to those who are prepared to spend the necessary time and money to effect the sympathetic improvements required. Set on an elevated site of c.1 acre, the house extends to over 10,000 sq. ft. of accommodation. The entrance hall boasts an ornate and elegant staircase and double period doors which lead to the principal reception room, formal drawing room, dining room, games room and living room. In addition the ground floor offers a large kitchen/living/dining room with hardwood French Oak units and Aga, utility room. bathroom and access to basement cellar. Elegant cornicing detail, ornate fireplaces and original windows are special features of this Grade B1 listed house, which however requires considerable updating.

The bedroom accommodation is set over 2 floors and 7 bedrooms . A guest annex (including bedroom, bathroom and kitchen) complete this along with 4 Ensuites and a family bathroom, all with period style fittings.

An unexpected bonus is the recent addition of a swimming pool and changing area.

http://www.brggibson...ion=B&offset=60

 

 

The over-excited, intellectually-facile, downright ignorant Christiano-triumphalist rubbish, (mis-)using the tired old categories of Antichrist, Armageddon, and other such talismans of pseudo-Biblical American ecclesio-imperialism

 

A fascinating example of the hyphenated compound successfully deployed in rhetorical invective.