Thelliand

Peak gold?

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/335/6072/1038

Read Science every week, first time I've ever seen an article on gold.

First time I've seen real major warnings from the Property Developers, warning from Walter Kwok.

I guess after his fallout with his brothers allows him to speak his mind before those with direct interest:

H.K. Home Prices to Fall Up to 15%: Kwok

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-20/walter-kwok-says-hong-kong-home-prices-have-peaked-may-drop-15-this-year.html

Back down, as the LTV restrictions "bite":

 

INDEX . . . . . . . . . . . . . .: Index : Weekly : Prev.Mo.

[Centa-City Leading Index] 99.70 : -1.01% : +2.32 %

[Mass Leading Index-------] 96.56 : -1.14% : +2.28 %

 

update :: http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

 

The breakdown of Centa-city leading is suggesting big percentage down (-4.07%) on HK Island within the week.

Change on previous week

HK -4.07 %

KLN 0.74 %

NT (East) 0.26 %

NT (West)-0.36 %

I wonder if the -4% just reflects a stalling at high-end (hence lower average price as made up more of lower end properties) or is real? They say average of Constituent Estates but I wonder if they change the weighting according to transaction numbers? If they don't -4% is a shocking number which could indicate the turn, surprised wasn't mentioned in SCMP or Standard today.

 

What I find strange though is that while many of the signals seem to be pointing to a correction, why are the property developers paying record prices at the land auctions? According to the newspaper articles, they claim that for those sites developers need to sell the units at higher than current market prices in order not to lose money. Surely these powerful and influentlial developers know more than we do about the current state of the market.... ????

I don't think the property developers have much more idea than others. Or certainly have no interest in undermining the market, regardless of their private thoughts.

The story of the Chinachem building in Repulse Bay highlights that.

Found this story about the building from 5 years ago.

http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=291&Itemid=32

Even after that article, it was unoccupied until maybe last year when it was converted to serviced apartments ("The Lily").

Also remember a post of Dr. Bubb talking about property stocks acting as early indicators.

Cheung Kong peaked 1st Dec 2007 then bottom of property market Nov 2008.

Maybe Cheung Kong's peak was 14th Jan 2011, then bottom of market Dec 2011? Seems too fast to me, but possible I guess.

Thanks for the post Yellowtip.

I feel so priced out I don't even bother looking, and would also be in top 1% of HK household incomes.

I have three kids, and rent a nice apartment in Braemar Hill where the rental yield is under 2.5% for the landlord. It's a nice area and important for the schools. Happy renting, and with the deposit requirements at the moment buying would not be possible even on the near-horizon.

There seem reminders of 1997. Politicians talking about planning to help housing a lot (all reminiscent of Tung Chee Hwa's platform in 1997). Even the very high income individuals unable to buy (particularly of decent flats >1200 flat suitable for families with children). And maybe with more investors in the market from outside Hong Kong it could become even more volatile than 1997 when so many properties are held without tenant. The luxury block opposite us only has 2 or 3 lights on in the evening. So wasteful, feels a crime with people couple kilometres away in Wanchai in the cage-homes without running water.

This article 1997 in NYT could be written today:

http://www.nytimes.com/specials/hongkong/070397hongkong-housing.html

Another 1.72% on the CCI leading index over last week (5.46% over last month).

How long is >5% per month increases in prices sustainable to already the most expensive property market in the world?

My bet is this heading into a blowoff top into middle of 2011 hitting a top maybe around 20% above 1997, then crashing hard in 2012 just like in 1998 (due to problems in China and/or interest rate rises) - would bet on a 14 year cycle this time round.

Following on from the US$43 gold per person per day with a million signups at ICBC, gold is so accessible to your average person in China (and Hong Kong) through all the banks:

http://www.icbc.com.cn/icbc/personal%20ban...gold%20trading/

Compare that to trying to buy gold in a Western high-street bank...

I work in this area myself as a research scientist and also was a little unimpressed at first.

Their pipeline of viricides are very early stage still in animal models, or earlier, there seems to be some problems with the IP, and I was surprised that such an early stage company was actually publicly traded. Interesting their CSO was in military research before, then going after diseases like Ebola / Dengue - seems they are intending military use as target.

But then I did notice that John Rossi, a very established and capable guy in the field, was on the Scientific Advisory Board. So maybe there is some hope.

Anyway, it's a big gamble this sort of stuff is either worth nothing or might pick up, but going after such a fast-changing target like influenza as their most developed program makes it especially risky even compared to other biotech stocks.