richyc

Ps - went panning again at the weekend and I'm going to have to go to the assay offfice now (lol). Actually, eaxch time I have gone I have basically doubled my total gold found. I must be getting better, or luckier.

I always wanted to go panning. Spent a lot of time researching and pouring over maps of the uk several years ago. I weighed up the costs involved and had to write it off since I live to far from anywhere that would be worth a visit. Where abouts do you go?

I think most here would agree that gold was at such an extreme low valuation in 2000 that valuation of other assets using gold as a baseline would not give accurate results.

I agree, that would be cherry picking of dates but he has back tested the theory 15 and 30 years.

The theory, although interesting and open to backtesting/debate, was not really the point of why I posted it.

Rightly or wrongly I have long since viewed gold as a stable currency which fiat paper moves in relation to. It made things easier in my mind to treat gold as a stable currency or a constant and I know that I am not alone.

An interesting piece here about gold, the way that many of us view it http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/10/...erspective.html

edit; sorry, wrong link. This is the source piece http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives...ce-of-gold.html

Gold's parabolic move over the whole bull run is nothing but devaluation of all fiat currencies. All fiat currencies are in a race to the bottom, one takes the lead then another takes over.

 

Gold isn't really going up, it is the currencies it is valued in are losing purchasing power.

 

The british pound looks the weakest on here;

 

A perfect analogy that fits my own thinking. I have typed the same message almost word for word many times.

What I am stuck with now is my understanding that gold can not fail to rise in sterling terms given the situation (certainly long term) but that there maybe no significant new highs in sterling if dollar devaluation is the driving factor over the winter.

No, the parabolic move will be a result of hysteria, but this will be amplified by currency movement (hyper-inflation excluded)

 

Shouldn't that be £1,038.61/t.oz? Why 1.85:1 rather than 1.59:1?

 

There is never an advantage to exchanging your cash and buying in another currency, but there may be a benefit to selling in another currency. It's too late to trade this IMO, you would need too much luck on your side, just short the dola if that's what you want to do.

I should not have used the word "parabolic" we are some way off that yet I believe, what I should have said was the coming surge.

I am working on gold being $1650 early next year and the GBP/USD being at around $1.85.

$1650/1.85 = £891 ozt

Never an advantage? I agree and have long since tended to view gold as an alternative currency that floats against others. It is frustrating though watching dollar moves and never benefiting so I live in hope that there is an angle that I have missed.

$1770? When is that booked in for?

Are we all assuming that the parabolic move in gold will be largely as a result of dollar devaluation rather than anything else?

With a move to $1650 and GBP/USD at $1.85 that is a sterling price of £891, so nothing spectacular in sterling terms.

Is it still a buy (physical) though with sterling cash? or better to use a USD account and load up at bullion vault? or just short the USD?