tanniemola

Here are some longer term charts:

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/ (USD, GBP)

http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/ (USD, GBP, EUR)

Thanks. The Kitco charts only go back 10 years.

Does anyone know where one can get (free) historical charts of the price of gold in a variety of currencies.

I've been using kitco which seems to be overly dollar centric.

I'm not so sure of this. Consider an alternative. The government's effort to reflate/ support over-inflated house prices fails with prices declining to a more "sustainable" level in the next few years. Your deposit, kept dry in the strongest currencies, strengthens against assets as they deflate.

 

No leverage required then to mulitply your deposit to keep pace with inflating house prices... just a good solid deposit kept safe while houses deflate in value.

wise words RH. What are your current favourites for strong currencies?

Hi dtm, not sure if there is any such thing as an expert when it comes to gold. But there certainly are a lot of opinions.

 

It is quite hard to say which way gold will go here... there are good arguments for both directions.. and then trumping the arguments altogether is one very unpredictable market. One thing I think most here agree on is that in the long term gold looks to be a great buy. If you are the buy and hold investor type, I think you will not regret buying gold here... even at what seem to be highish prices. If the price does fall, the bull market in gold will "rescue" you as it goes on to new heights.

 

Personally, I will not be buying here as I already have quite a large percentage of my worth in gold, and feel I can "afford" to wait for a dip. If I didn't have a good position and had say "only" 10% in gold, I would feel a little "exposed" and would buy... peace of mind and all that.

 

So I guess, in my opinion, it comes down to how much [percentage wise] you already own, and what you feel comfortable with.

Investing in gold for me is a way to protect my savings in uncertain times so I am definitely a buy and hold investor.

I am happy make small loss for the case of security.

However I must say I have been surprised by the rapidity of the rise in gold the last couple of months and wonder if it is sustainable.

I expected a much more gradual rise.

Have I made personal attacks on posters? I don't think so... more of an objective discussion on ideas and beliefs.

 

I like the pragmatic way you have framed it here.... whether prices will go hyper... because at the end of the day, besides being night time, we all know that hyper-inflation would have to involve this as the currency went towards zero.

 

- there are now laws in place that prevent central banks in developed countries from printing willy nilly... they are now mostly borrowing and expanding the debt bubble even further.

 

- this debt bubble is contracting and is causing a debt/credit/asset deflation [monetary "hyper-inflation" was seen at an earlier period where bank credit inflated asset prices- I know you do not see credit as money... but I'd argue, on pragmatic grounds, it is definitely a monetary phenomenon].

 

-the behaviour of banks and consumers is influenced by the deflation in assets and collateral leading to a reduction in borrowing and lending levels. This deleveraging will continue to exert deflationary forces as both banks and consumers seek to restore there balance sheets.

 

- the CBs are resorting to such desperate monetary policies because they see themselves fighting deflation and not chasing after windmills.

 

-the amount of money printing is insignificant to the amount of debt that is contracting. If the economy was not debt-based then an argument could be made for hyper-inflation... but as it stands any new money creation is swallowed up in one very large hole of debt.

 

- Political developments could just as well enforce fiscal prudence as they could bring about money printing to the nth degree.

 

- Bond markets would be punished if buyers think government debt might be unpayable. Though the increased savings of Americans might help here as it did in Japan.

 

- Commodities and equities are only going up in price because Bernanke is threatening inflation and printing. There is an ideological bias here [monetarist theory] for investors to spend/buy investments. Consumers on the other hand are guided more by the real world and not by theory and will be saving not spending. This means the real economy will continue to contract. At some point the real economy will no longer be able to support the financial economy, with prices collapsing.

 

-Current asset inflation in emerging economies is based on the US cheap dollar carry trade. All it is achieving is over-valuation in economies which already have over-capacity in production. GDP in developed countries is contracting not expanding. This malinvestment will come to a screeching halt as the China bubble burst leading to further rounds of foorced liquidation and dollar strength.

 

-If worst came to worst, governments would default rather than destroy there currency.

 

- Before it came to that, international government [iMF etc] would institute a gold-backed currency to which other currencies would be fixed and stabilized.

 

 

Just a few brief reasons [all of which have been gone over ad infinitum on other threads] on why hyper-inflation of prices is far from a foregone conclusion.

I'm a novice looking to increase my physical gold (currently about 10 % of my savings - aiming for 20%) in the next minidrop.

I bought earlier this year and was thinking of increasing my holdings before this latest bull run started which made me think it was better to wait for a correction. So I'd like to know how low the experts think it's going to go?