HollandPark

another year near no change, would be my guess

(that's it ! I just hit 1,000 posts. Good luck in 2013. See you soon.)

We are in a B-wave maybe

 

Jake Bernstein thinks last week's Gold rally may peter out soon.

He went long last week for a quick move up, but if there is no follow-thru will sell on Monday or Tuesday.

Look's like Gold is getting some follow-thru: up $10.70 !

Could rvd now be classed as a junior?

SURE. But diamonds are a tough business. Not many long term winners there.

May fav, Firestone, is one of the few

I notice that Royal Gold is behaving well today:

RGLD : $28.47 Change: +0.83 Open:

Volume: 69,318 // Percent Change: +3.00%

CALIFORNIA - looking very grim

C.A.R. Median Home Prices Down 29% In March

The California Association of Realtors® has released its report for March.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Home sales decreased 24.5 percent compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 29 percent.

“Sales continue to be impacted by problems in the real estate finance sector, which by some measures have eroded since the start of the year,” said C.A.R. President William E. Brown. “Sales in 2007 reached their peak last February; going forward, the year-to-year declines in sales should shrink.”

The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during March 2008 was $413,980, a 29 percent decrease from the revised $582,930 median for March 2007, C.A.R. reported. The March 2008 median price fell 1.3 percent compared with February’s revised $419,640 median price.

“Both tighter underwriting standards and the ongoing effects of the credit/liquidity crunch continue to constrain sales,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Historically, mortgage rates on jumbo loans are 0.2 percent to 0.4 percent higher than those on conforming loans, but the spreads in recent weeks have been as large as 2 percentage points, reflecting an increase in the perceived risk associated with these loans.

“The lack of available funds for loans, even for qualified buyers, continues to keep the demand side of the market thin, and enables buyers with financing (or all cash) to exert leverage over sellers,” she said.

Highlights of C.A.R.’s resale housing figures for March 2008:

C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in March 2008 was 11.6 months, compared with 7.6 months for the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.

I did some light selling- as GORO approaches $5.00

There are too many cheap stocks about

A backlash against bottled water has started in Britain, with some newspapers urging restaurants not to serve it and politicians including London Mayor Ken Livingstone calling for a boycott. Tap water requires around 300 times less energy than bottled water for its packaging and transport and leaves nothing for disposal.

A wonderful idea: Bann bottled water.

Get rid of the 10,000 mile Caesar salad, and the 3,000 mile well-traveled water bottle

What kind of website do you mean? Please introduce a couple of them.

BTW, I have no idea on another interview, what would be its benefits? What should I interview to?

Website examples:

1/ http://www.sinclair-research.co.uk/index.php

2/ http://www.nvg.ntnu.no/sinclair/sinclair/sinclair.htm

Maybe talk to someone from a popular Sci-Fi website,

and get a video up on YouTube.

Some vague examples:

1/

Is Time Travel Possible? *

2/

Time Travel: Einstein's big idea (Theory of Relativity) *

3/

York Dobyns on Wormholes, Quantum Mechanics, and the Future *

("Physicist York Dobyns of Princeton University talks about how the future intentions may affect the past at the American Association for the Advancement of Science at University of San Diego on June 23, 2006. Interview by Tom Munnecke. He discusses some of the ideas of Cal Tech Physicist Kip Thorne's theories of wormholes on the fabric of space and time. He also discusses some of the strange implications of our understanding of quantum mechanics. This is interesting in the context of designing the Good Ancestor Principle in the context of the Uplift Academy. York Dobyns earned his PhD in physics at Princeton and is now with the Princeton Engineering Anomalies Laboratory.")

The guy behind that Dobyns video (

http://www.youtube.com/user/munnecke

(Is it safe?):

On such a public forum as YouTube, stick to the science, and maybe make it clear

that you are not hostile to anyone in your country.

Uranium investors need a strong stomach; medicine on the way

Monday, January 21, 2008

By Luke Brocki

Yellowcake mines coming in Australia, world’s biggest maker of power generation gear may enter uranium market.

I’m not here to pretend all is well in the market these days. (Or am I?) Even if I was, this would not be the week to do it. (Or would it?) After all, North American markets suffered triple-digit losses, the TSX was down a record 900 points in 3 days, posting its worst week in seven years and—adding insult to injury—the uranium spot price slipped 50 cents to $89.50 a pound U3O8.

But I will say this: if you’re in it to win, tighten the belt and stick around. (How’s that for foreshadowing?) Forget these day-to-day bearish catastrophes in favour of phenomenal strength in the long-term market. Because dammit, things are really rolling on the uranium front.

OK, the Resource World uranium stock index dropped nearly 200 points this week, before rebounding 57-points-and-change Friday to close just under 1,200 points. And yes, that’s still low given a brief foray above 1,500 points in December.

To boot, industry indicator Ux Consulting dropped its spot price by 50 cents to $89.50 a pound U3O8 earlier this week. And rival indicator Tradetech reported just a single transaction, with material selling at about $90 a pound U3O8. Several sellers continue to seek buyers, but nobody is yet desperate for material. Not yet, that is.

This week alone, Australia was looking to fix trade relations with resource-starved India after a rejected uranium trade deal, South Australia was poised to become the home of two new mines, British scientists have forced uranium into a chemical reaction and General Electric (NYSE: GE, Bullboards) expressed interest to hop on the uranium wagon.

On Tuesday, Australia’s Rudd government stomped a decision by the previous government by telling India it would not be buying Australian uranium unless it signs the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

The move caused diplomats considerable grief. After all, Australia is sitting on gigantic uranium reserves and India is desperately seeking power for its rapidly expanding economy. Realizing this, Australia elaborated on its decision Thursday: while the government has banned uranium exports to India, it has not decided whether to block India’s uranium purchases from other countries.

The latter is possible given Australia’s membership of the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group, which controls global export of nuclear materials. It will be interesting to see whether Australia will support international uranium sales to India, especially if the 1-2-3- agreement—a recently proposed US-Indian agreement to share civilian nuclear technology—gets the green light.

Elsewhere Down Under, South Australia, the site of the world's largest reserves of low-cost uranium, could become the home of yet another uranium mine. Alliance Resources (TSX: V.ALL.H, Bullboards) announced a mining trial at a project near Arkaroola, marking the week’s second major mining announcement in the area.

On Tuesday, Reuters reported Uranium One (TSX: T.UUU, Bullboards) got construction approval for its Honeymoon mine in South Australia, which is now expected to come online before the end of 2008. Thursday’s announcement could spark the development of Australia's third-largest uranium mine and crown South Australia the uranium capital of the country, with four of the nation’s five operating uranium mines.

And Thursday, Bloomberg reported General Electric is now in talks with several uranium companies to develop a nuclear business and gain access to uranium. This could mean the world's biggest maker of equipment used for power generation is looking to expand its nuclear activities.

More exciting news came from the lab: scientific journal Nature reported British scientists have forced uranium into a chemical reaction. A pair of University of Edinburgh chemists has tricked uranium into behaving like a lighter and more reactive metal and the discovery is expected to have long-term benefits for nuclear research. Specifically, breaking the incredibly stable uranium-oxygen bonds of uranyl ions could help unlock new strategies for removing uranium from contaminated water.

Finally, the kicker: the Australian Uranium Association says global nuclear power capacity grew by 372.1 gigawatts in 2007. That’s thanks to four new nuclear reactors and upgrades to existing facilities.

For perspective, that’s six times the increase posted in 2006. And hundreds of reactors are proposed and planned around the world, with 34 new ones already in some stage of construction at the end of last year.

So will this news chase the bear away from the spot market? Eventually, yes. Because support for the industry continues to grow. And as new reactors come online, they’ll need all kinds of yellowcake to get going and keep going.

About the Author

Luke Brocki is the managing editor of uranium news site U3O8.biz. He’s an award-winning, Vancouver-based journalist with an academic background in the natural sciences. He splits his time between U3O8.biz, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation and freelance writing projects.

U3O8.biz - offers uranium investors and the industry comprehensive news, views and commentary on all aspects of the uranium business including information on the industry's leading companies, players, news and events

/see: http://www.stockhouse.com/shfn/editorial.asp?edtID=38967

(From the Gartman report):

Home prices continued to fall, giving buyers an incentive to pull their bids and wait for lower prices in the future, and giving sellers a reason to lower their offers if they intend to sell their homes.

The median price of a home sold...the point at which half sell for more and half sell for less... in November was $210,200, down 3.3% compared to a year ago. This was, we are told, the 5th largest annual decline on record.

Chart watchers will make a note of the fact that the median home price forged a rather sizeable "triple top" at or very near to $230,000, reaching that level in late '05 amidst now comical euphoria in the housing market; again in early '06 and then earlier this year. The long upward sloping trend that extends back into '00 has clearly been broken. It will take months... perhaps even a year or more... before the "bear market" has run its course and "support" will be found. Around the country, sales were, shall we say, mixed. In the West they rose a rather shocking 10.3%. In the Midwest, they were flat. Sales fell 2% across the South and were down 3.3% in the Northeast.

Finally the inventory of unsold homes in November was 4.27 million, meaning that at the current pace of sales it shall take a bit more than 10 months to wear off that excessive inventory

(as posted elsewhere ):

QUOTE (Rudi @ Dec 31 2007)

I don't mean to dismiss your index, as I think it could be used as a useful signal for upcoming market reversals (particularly as a way of timing a bottom). However I simply don't agree with the correlation between the house price indices and the adjusted 5 builders index you have created.

UNQUOTE

DrBubb:

TIMING & LEVEL ??

=============

The BBI Builders Index has been an effecting TIMING tool, giving leading indications of the property

market's direction 6 to 12 months ahead. I have used it for the US and for Hong Kong too.

I can say, it is helping me to make money, as the indication it gave me about the upward thrust

in Hong Kong helped me to gain the confidence needed to invest aggressively, especially early

on when the best opportunities were still available.

As to LEVEL of the market...

I would have to agree with you, that to ask the BBI Builders index to tell you the precise level at

which the UK property market will bottom out, might be asking too much.

However, do consider this. Even with the effect of gearing, isnt it conceivable that if the BBI index

stocks wipe out all their gains since 2003 or 2004, that UK property markets are also capable of doing

the same thing? I think this correlation - how many years of gains get wiped out by the BBI, and then

how many years of gains subsequently gets wiped out by actual property prices is something

interesting to watch in the years to come.

Meantime, keep an eye on the US, where some builders have wiped out 70% or even 80% of value.

Not just 70-80% of the gains, that's a price destruction of 70-80% of value. I do not expect to see

US prices fall by 70-80%. But some of the US builders have wiped out all of the gains since 2000,

and even since the late 1990's. Let's see if US prices fall 40-60% for that to happen too.

The city showing the biggest declines in the Schiller Index is Detroit.

Detroit====== -2000- : Peak / Timing : Recent level :: Pct. of gain erased

CS index level: 100.00 : 127.1/ Dec'05 : 108.2/ Oct'07 : about 2/3rds

Keep in mind, this does not include condos, which have had deeper falls. So perhaps the Schiller

index is understanding the extend of price drops in many cities (like Miami) with loads of condos.

One reason I think the UK HPI indices will understate price drops is the way they are calculated.

In the UK, is someone spends Pds.25,000-30,000 (or something) upgrading their property by adding

a roof extension, a garage, or a conservatory, that value-added will show up in the price

ultimately received in the sale. But there is no adjustment to the base price. The so the index

gardually gets inflated by various ugrades that cost the owners money. The average home in the

UK now is larger, has better bathrooms, and kitchens. etc than it had in the 1960's, but there

have never been any adjustments to teh index. Perhaps 20-30% of the index inflation since the

1960's is due to these types of capital expenditures (that's just a guess.) And this may be one

reason why prices may not fall all the way back to 1994-5 levels even if the UK property market

is very weak.

REAL ESTATE STATS to watch ... for the USA...

=============

----------------------- :: Latest----- : Previous- :: LastYr./ Change----- : Source

New Home Sales..... :: 647k-Nov. : 711k-Oct. :: XXXk / - 34.4% yoy - Census Bureau

Backlog time to sell. :: 9.3 months

Latest CS index out.

Down 6.7% from a year earlier - that exceeded the previous record fall of 6.3% in April 1991.

Aftewr that fall, US real estate rallied sharply from its low. Are we about to see that again?

What some economists are quoted to be saying:

+ "The market is working its way back to reality," says David Seiders, chief economist

of the National Association of Home Builders. He thinks that U.S. home prices will

bottom out by early 2009. (Previously, he was saying sometime in 2008- so it's a

moving target.)

+ Some other economists say that (a bottom in the US) may not happen before 2010

+ "The housing shock is only about halfway over, and US housing prices will continue to

fall well into 2009," says Lehman Brothers economist Michele Meyer.

Here's one of those old Builder cycle charts*, showing how CTX bottomed around 1990.

- so I ran a close-up of three years (1989-91), to see how CTX moved back then.

I'm still trying to get a fix on the exact bottom of that C-S data series, but for CTX,

we saw a low in Oct/Nov.1990, and I would expect that to LEAD by perhaps 6-12 months.

How might this three year period look from 2006-2008

Centex Corp (CTX) ... update : weekly : daily // monthly-JOE

It is interesting that in both periods, there was a sharp fall into November.

Is it just possible that we have seen an important low??

The biggest fallers in the last 12 months, were the markets that were previously the hottest, like:

Miami...... : - 12.4%

San Diego : - 11.1%

Las Vegas : - 10.7%

Phoenix.... : - 10.6%

Might these locations be a good place to look for bargains with 12 months of the stocks bottoming?

-------- -

* From the First GEI video/ UK Property Cycle thread, in the GEI-in-the-media section

Latest CS index out.

Down 6.7% from a year earlier - that exceeded the previous record fall of 6.3% in April 1991.

Aftewr that fall, US real estate rallied sharply from its low. Are we about to see that again?

What some economists are quoted to be saying:

+ "The market is working its way back to reality," says David Seiders, chief economist

of the National Association of Home Builders. He thinks that U.S. home prices will

bottom out by early 2009. (Previously, he was saying sometime in 2008- so it's a

moving target.)

+ Some other economists say that (a bottom in the US) may not happen before 2010

+ "The housing shock is only about halfway over, and US housing prices will continue to

fall well into 2009," says Lehman Brothers economist Michele Meyer.

Here's one of those old Builder cycle charts*, showing how CTX bottomed around 1990.

- so I ran a close-up of three years (1989-91), to see how CTX moved back then.

I'm still trying to get a fix on the exact bottom of that C-S data series, but for CTX,

we saw a low in Oct/Nov.1990, and I would expect that to LEAD by perhaps 6-12 months.

How might this three year period look from 2006-2008

Centex Corp (CTX) ... update : weekly : daily // monthly-JOE

It is interesting that in both periods, there was a sharp fall into November.

Is it just possible that we have seen an important low??

Apart from Detroit, the "motor city" which has been hit hard by problems in the

automotive industry, the biggest fallers were mostly the markets that were previously

the hottest, like:

Region---- from 2000: Peak= : Pct.Drop : Ave./mo.

Detroit....... : + 27.1% : Dec'05 : - 14.88%: - 0.68%

San Diego : + 150.3% : Nov'05 : - 13.31%: - 0.38%

Tampa..... : + 137.3% : May'06 : - 13.26%: - 0.72%

Miami....... : + 178.7% : May'06 : - 12.32%: - 0.57%

Phoenix.... : + 127.4% : Jun'06 : - 11.74%: - 0.73%

Las Vegas : + 134.8% : Aug'06 : - 11.12%: - 0.79%

========

10 cities.. : + 126.29% June'06: -7.34%: - 0.46%

(These figures UNDERSTATE PRICE FALLS in many locations, because by design,

they do not include condos, which have typically seen larger price falls than houses.)

Might these locations be a good place to look for bargains within 12 months of the

Builder stocks bottoming- whenever that may happen?

-------- -

* From the First GEI video/ UK Property Cycle thread, in the GEI-in-the-media section

(originally posted on GHPC and relevant here too perhaps):

QUOTE (Rudi @ Dec 28 2007, 01:21 AM)

Although I agree that the builders may be a leading indicator for direction,

I don't agree that they will move together in the way you are suggesting with that chart.

UNQUOTE

- -

(DrBubb):

???

The chart shows the history of how they HAVE moved together in the past.

Look, I do agree that House prices will be more "sticky" to the downside. We are seeing

that already, I think. But so long as the builder stocks remain under severe downwards

pressure it should make sense to stay away from buying property. And even if there is

a bounce which turns into a move breaking the downtrend, I still think you will have

another 6-12 months before UK property hits bottom.

I watched how well this bellwether worked in the UK, and then used HK propertydeveloper

share price movements to help me time my aggressive move into Hong Kong property,

just under one year ago. I will remain learn, andwatch for signs of a breakdown in that

indicator.

Here's the cycle from another thread:

I think the US builders may bottom in 2008 or 2009, after a sharp fall*

...and the UK builders maybe a year later.

I would then be alert for a buying opportunity within 12 months of that bottom.

- - -

*Sharp Fall?

Here's an update of the CTX/Centex chart for the last ten years

It is not impossible that we have seen the lows already.

But the 18 1/3 year cycle would suggest a low next year (2008) or maybe 2009

Currently, with gold at £380 per ounce and the average UK house at £184,131, you can now buy that house for 485 ounces of gold.

??

So the BLUE line has fallne back below 500?

just had a play round last night at making a logo ...

I like the Font used on this

Any suggestions for UK funds like a smaller version of Merrill Lynch Gold & General, for example?

Ambrian Capital maybe.

But I suggest looking to North America

Looking at the occupancy and demographic makeup of my own neighborhood, there is a very obvious disproportionate (perhaps 40%) number of single occupants in their 70s and 80s (now mid 70s/80s) living in an area mostly comprised of 3 & 4 bedroom houses. It's not a retirement area, just a place with an aging population. It's very unlikely that many of these folk will still be there in 10 years time.

 

This will effectively become masive 'new' supply of mid range property, because people of this age will mostly move on to places outside the mainstream housing market. This is just a snapshot, but due to massive out migration from London just after WW2 this is probably quite typical for many of the satallite commuter towns.

Interesting.

We dont here much about the "over-housed", but there are many of them who bought cheaply years ago for a family,

and are now living in very valuable homes where they have more space than they need

anything new here?

the other side of the demographics problem - it ruins property-in-the-pension-plan...

Drop in housing demand predicted

Citywire: Equity release faces demographic challenge

Tom McPhail, head of pensions research, at Bristol-based adviser Hargreaves Lansdown is saying that an expected drop in the population over the next couple of decades would reduce housing demand. Meanwhile, he says, older people will be trying to trade down or release equity in lieu of a pension.

. .

"Tom McPhail, head of pensions research, said an expected drop in the population would mean there would be fewer family age adults around to buy houses. At the same time, there will be more older people trying to release value from their houses."

@: http://www.citywire.co.uk/News/NewsArticle...&NewsPage=1

### from that GHPC link, this will get some Property Bulls to lose sleep ###

dog2 Jan 9 2006, 09:54 PM Post #6

I have done some rough proportioning from my book and I get the following:

Number of 38 year olds = 950,000

Number of 26 year olds = 750,000

Number of 2 year olds = 650,000

These numbers are very crude estimates but I would say they represent a dire warning for anyone looking at property as a long term investment.

= = = = =

Sometimes ideas borrowed from Stockhouse threads are worth checking out.

Maybe this one too...

SUBJECT: three junior uranium play that you may want to Posted By: dread dogs

Post Time: 1/1/2007 10:02

keep an eye on....do you own dd.

v.sfr

v.bea

v.imt

Top-10 Best/Worst Performing Canadian Uranium Stocks in 2006, Part 1

Tuesday, November 7, 2006

By Sean Mason

With the price of uranium rising about 66% this year, it would seem to be a no-brainer for any uranium company to have made money for its shareholders. In reality, some stocks have been stellar performers in 2006 while others are destined for a tax deduction.

StockHouse has assembled a list of the best and worst performing Canadian uranium stocks in 2006, and although it's extensive there may have been some unintentional omissions. These stocks might be pure uranium plays or mining/exploration companies that own or have options on uranium properties along with other metals/minerals.

In Part 1, we look at stocks that trade on either the TSX or TSX Venture exchange with the symbols beginning with A to F. The percentage increase/decrease is based on the closing price on November 2.

Best Performing Canadian Uranium Stocks (Symbols Starting With A to F)

1. Energy Fuels (TSX: V.EFR, BullBoards) + 2300%

2. Bluerock Resources (TSX: V.BRD, BullBoards) + 322%

3. Cash Minerals (TSX: V.CHX, BullBoards) + 297%

4. Red Dragon Resources (TSX: V.DRA, BullBoards) + 256%

5. Firestone Ventures (TSX: V.FV, BullBoards) + 229%

6. Aurora Energy Resources (TSX: T.AXU, BullBoards) + 225%

7. Forsys Metals (TSX: T.FSY, BullBoards) + 223%

8. Eloro Resources (TSX: V.ELO, BullBoards) + 203%

9. Alberta Star Development (TSX: V.ASX, BullBoards) + 184%

10. Crosshair Exploration and Mining (TSX: V.CXX, BullBoards) + 174%

Worst Performing Canadian Uranium Stocks (Symbols Starting With A to F)

1. East Asia Minerals (TSX: V.EAS, BullBoards) - 48%

2. East West Resource (TSX: V.EWR, BullBoards) - 35%

3. Cooper Minerals (TSX: V.CQ, BullBoards) - 25%

4. ESO Uranium (TSX: V.ESO, BullBoards) - 23%

5. Adriana Resources (TSX: V.ADI, BullBoards) - 19%

6. Erdene Gold (TSX: T.ERD, BullBoards) - 13%

7. Diamonds North Resources (TSX: V.DDN, BullBoards) - 7%

8. Formation Capital (TSX: T.FCO, BullBoards) - 6%

9. Benton Resources (TSX: V.BTC, BullBoards) 0%

10. Freewest Resources (TSX: V.FWR , BullBoards) 0%

sourec: http://www.stockhouse.com/shfn/article.asp?edtid=18943

some good material on that site, GlobalEdge.org = http://globaledge.msu.edu :

example: country profiles: HONG KONG

Occupied by the UK in 1841, Hong Kong was formally ceded by China the following year; various adjacent lands were added later in the 19th century. Pursuant to an agreement signed by China and the UK on 19 December 1984, Hong Kong became the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China on 1 July 1997. In this agreement, China has promised that, under its "one country, two systems" formula, China's socialist economic system will not be imposed on Hong Kong and that Hong Kong will enjoy a high degree of autonomy in all matters except foreign and defense affairs for the next 50 years.

CAPITAL: Beijing (+8 GMT)

CURRENCY: Hong Kong dollar

MAJOR LANGUAGE(S): Chinese, English

CALLING CODE: 852

VOLTAGE: 220V

PRIMARY RELIGION(S): local religions, Christian

...more: http://globaledge.msu.edu/ibrd/CountryIntro.asp?CountryID=19

and there is also:

http://www.GlobalEdge.net : manages PC and Unix systems and networks

and

http://www.GlobalEdgeTrading.com : software for foreign exchange trading

I don't see any particular problem amongst that variety of sites.

also : The branding here looks much different than any of those.

harvi,

i have suggested a beginners section could be added to the investor education section

a thread with questions, is a great way to start one.

for those of us who have been trading for years,

it isnt so easy to recall what the key issues were when starting out