Benall

.....

 

Anyone who bought before middle of 2005 is still up 100% (in Sterling). Anyone having bought before middle of 2007 should still be up some 30% (exception the peak in 2006). Anyone who has bought recently possibly needs to wait a couple of years in order to get a clearer picture. As Jim Sinclair said, volatility in gold will reach spiritual levels. I think we're still in the beginning of all this.

 

.....

So re-emphasises to me to just dollar cost average. Wish I had (bet I bought most at the 2006 peak!). Simple really and saves a lot of time trying to do TA on something too volatile, manipulated, etc. I was just in too much of a hurry to get in. Now I'm in, I can slow down my accumulation.

BTW, I find things very different when your core holding is in gold and it becomes your reference point. Oh look fiat GBP is down against gold. Oh look, fiat USD is up against gold. Etc, etc. I basing this on the comment that the long-term cost of things do not change much in relation to gold. The "fiats" are all bouncing around off each other but are all on the same bus going off the cliff. Gold is the currency for me. The rest is noise.

yes, we are very close, next week maybe. the stocks should bottom next week, oil should confirm bottom next week, looks like it is almost over for the dollar

James Turk over at Goldmoney has been predicting a USD crisis. Well he would wouldn't he. But he is probably right. The tide's come rushing in and will receed. Probably next year, but given the pace of things....

I gave my arguments. One thing people should keep in mind as well is that it is not only us paupers who bet on gold. There are surely some very wealthy and influential people (with very good lawyers) who do the same. Not sure government would really like to start messing around with them.

There most certainly are.

IG Index OCT-08 spiked down to 846 while the markets were closed. Has anyone here ever seen that before (or more importantly been stopped out like this)?

Oh yes, many times.

I'll also stick my neck out with a prediction for this month...

 

- next few days DOW and FTSE start to fall precipitously, such that they reach 10000 and 4500 by month end

 

- emergency base rate cuts happen or are signalled (BoE missed its chance today)

 

- commercial bank baleouts extended / increased

 

- Sterling will fall further, reaching 1.65 vs USD, with the fall only minimised by the fact the USDX will peak out and start to slide

 

- oil does not fall below 90 (and possibly not even or much below 100), and the fact that its refusing to go lower will become a palpable concern to economists/media

 

- inflation stats rise significantly

 

- all the above will cause a ramp up in fear, and gold will start to rally (6-8% up in USD, 10-15% in GBP, by months end)

 

[EDIT: and my bones even sense a black swan approaching ...Russia? major bank collapse? terrorist attack? high-profile Western assasination?] - bundle of fun aren't I

Very good. Thinking the same. - you've been reading my mail?! I have done well on my similar predictions but poor on timing (e.g. thought they would happen sooner). Not good with the time decay but then some of the swings have been so large I've covered (e.g. GBP:USD put warrant up 500%). Maybe a double bottom for gold. It's a time what with all this volatilty (e.g. in gold and GBP and inflation) to be clear about what is used to measure the value of things (I'm sticking with gold as my unit of measure).

Gold goes up, gold goes down. Mostly it goes up. Simple really.

Cheer up. You should see my energy porfolio plummet from profit to loss! At least gold is (better than) money.

Check this guy out if you haven't seen him before. I watched these two episodes last night.... very interesting stuff.

 

Krassimir Petrov on Gold

Part 3 - http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=976700141486118374

Part 4 - http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1383332369012611726

Good stuff!

Great Post!

 

Thanks

Yes, seconded. It's great to get insights into others approaches and learnings. It's taken me a while but I've adopted a similar approach and it feels right. I have trading and investing (and other) funds with appropriate allocations to both. I still haven't mastered the stops but I have mastered taking an intermediate view (that's where the experienced traders say they make their best money). Even an underwater position with some sound fundamental reasoning behind it usually rights itself with sufficient time. That's where reviewing your trading performance (e.g. at tax return time) is a great education - that feedback loop has taught me a lot of discipline.

We haven't broken resistance yet and there is still a chance we could break to the downside out of this triangle.

 

Gold still hasnt hit the 200dma

 

Whatever happens we will know quite soon, we are soon to be out of this pattern one way or another.

 

Jim Sinclair is adamant 848 (late april/may) was the low, I guess we will know soon.

 

Dollar looking weaker/Euro looking stronger, oil still relentless, Soybeans/corn hitting new highs, wheat making a comeback, natural gas looking good - my guess is we break to the upside.

Fair comments. I forgot about that 200 day thingy. While triangles generally have been performing well of late (for gold and others), something is telling me to be careful - that there may be more of a correction in commodities and PMs. That said, I've learnt not to trade PMs but to accumulate on dips so have been buying quite happy should the price fall to the 820-850 area. The risk/reward looks promising. I would hate to be out of funds at lower levels though.

Careful,

 

Careful of what? Isn't that a bullish triangle formation with long-term resistance at $860?

Need I say more ?

 

 

Er no, my thoughts exactly. Love them triangles. Been working very well of late across a number of securities.

CDNX is coming into a very interesting "pinch point" ...

 

...and I think the next move is going to be up.

 

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Nice looking chart pattern (they seem to be working better these days) and the daily (if not weekly) MACD looks good.

Many thanks indeed for the pointers. It's been hard for an ETF focussed guy like me to create a position in the junior sector. But I have (c.15). Taken a few losses but am bullish given here and what Jim Puplava and co have been saying (BTW just read a short Money Week daily article pointing to a similar "big fish buys little fish" dynamic in the Pharma/Biotach sector).