davehk
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HK news--Prices staying the course
January 27, 2011
Housing experts predict the volume of property sales this year will fall from 2010 levels, while prices will rise 5 to 15 percent - down from last year's 21 percent - as more government intervention is expected to cool the market. Transactions in Hong Kong's primary and secondary markets may slump 10 percent and 20 percent, respectively, analysts and agencies said. That being said, Samsung Securities managing director and regional head of property Lee Wee-liat does not expect residential prices to slide much due to the current low mortgage rates.
"Even if the interest rates rise within these two years, the pace won't be too fast, and home prices won't fall easily," he said.
Lee forecasts property prices will climb 5 percent this year as the government launches more measures to curb speculation. "Homebuyers will be more cautious as they may find home prices too high after those austerity measures, so we foresee the number of home transactions dropping," Lee said.
According to Samsung, the average transaction value in the primary market for the first half of 2010 soared to almost HK$20 million per property - five times higher than the norm of HK$4 million per unit.
This indicated that a large number of the sales involved luxury properties, defined as homes costing HK$12 million or more.
The strong response of homebuyers in the primary market subsequently triggered a wave of transactions in the secondary market, where the average transaction value jumped to HK $4 million, up from the norm of HK$2.5 million to HK$3 million per apartment - similar to what occurred in 1997, when per unit price also hit HK$4 million.
"Mainland buyers will continue to be the main driver of the local luxury residential market," Lee said, adding they may have accounted for 40 percent of firsthand luxury home purchases in the second half of last year.
For the first six months of last year, Centaline Property attributed up to 35 percent of luxury sales in the primary market, and about 20 percent of deals in the secondary market, to mainland buyers.
Centaline research director Wong Leung-sing said 1,172 villas changed hands in the whole of 2010, generating turnover of HK$25.67 billion - the highest level since the HK$43.37 billion recorded in 1997.
Meanwhile, Midland Realty head of research Buggle Lau Ka-fai takes a more bullish view for 2011.
Lau projects that home prices will rise 10 percent, with trading volume declining about 17 percent.
Ricacorp predicts the number of residential transactions will drop 20 percent this year to 108,000 deals, or about 9,000 per month, while prices will climb 10 percent at major housing estates, and 15 percent for luxury homes.
Construction started for 5,397 flats in 35 projects last year - a 22 percent plunge from 6,887 homes in 2009 - according to Ricacorp head of property research Patrick Chow Moon-kit.
Chow forecasts construction starts to rebound to 8,000 to 12,000 flats this year.
"The actual levels of demand may be distorted by investment activities," said Samsung's Lee, commenting on the view that home prices are pushed up by undersupply.
Of the private flats built and occupied between 2006 and 2009, some 26 percent to 36 percent of them are being rented out rather than occupied by owners, according to data compiled by the Rating and Valuation Department.
Lee said those percentages were even higher than the 17 percent in 1996 and 28 percent in 1997, during the asset bubble before the Asian financial crisis. -
Here's that Caribbean Coast link again http://www.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=008500
Interesting to note the rents are skyrocketing here. For CC, a 1200 sq/ft up at around $18000 p/m. A landlords market it seems.....
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Hi all,
Great to be here with such a good bunch of informed property investors. Isn't it good when we look back and hopefully see that we have made a smart buy or sell? This site I think will help me achieve that. Look forward to participating in discussions. Cheers
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=== Hong Kong property Outlook - and Data Base ===
"I think HK is on its way into a Long Cycle top... in the 2015-17 time frame" - post #4-Feb.2011
===
Last (announced 01/06/17): $14,595 psf - 0.51% in the latest week.
Could bottom below $10,000 psf in 2019-20
===================================
Hi all, Kung Hei Fat Choi!
I have followed with interest for some time now, the excellent information this site gives. A lot of us appreciate the time Dr Bubb in particular, takes to share his knowledge and expertise.
I was hoping Dr Bubb and others could share some recent opinions on the state of the HK housing market and how the new government anti-speculative measures will impact the market long term. I'm looking at buying in Tung Chung at the moment but am cautious in being sucked into buying high in the cycle. Tung Chung has many positives (low vacancy/ new hospital/ macau bridge/ new airport construction projects, etc) but I guess there's risks to the world economy that may change things.
Caribbean Coast centadata link -- http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm
In other posts on this site (especially UK discussions), I have seen various diagrams depicting the way and timing of cycles. Where would you describe HK's current status on the cycle? Is it time to wait for a correction? Seems a long way off with cashed up citizens and record low interest rates.
Look forward to generating fresh HK discussion here and also contributing further. Thanks!
= = =
DATABANKWeek : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast : Clovell/ IslHarb: ParkAv: Waterf : Sorrent : ThArch : C'ribC : TaikSh.: fanlingNumb.: ( #1) ( #2,4): (---- #6) : (--- #7) : (--- #8) : (-- #9) / (--- #7) (--- #8): (- #12) : (-- #13): (--#14) : (--#-3) : (--#21) : (-#-5)==== . .PEAK: 146.92 148.61:(09/13)Chg-: -6.55% : -6.43% :PEAK: 146.92 148.61: (09/13) : 20,203 : 26,737 : 23,110 /13,270: 13,232 : 15,638 : 17,973 : 21,196 : 6,519 : 15,119 : 7,833 : PkC/CHt
Chg-: -8.92% : -11.7% v02/07 : --------- : --------- : -------- / --------: - 5.03%: -------- : --------- : --------- : -------:-14.41%: -12.2%04/24: 129.87 130.06: 13,963 : 19,398 : 25,866 : 25.798 /11,212: 11,858: 14,382 : 14,990 : 18,728 : 6,543 : 12,318 : 6,707 : 8,510 :04/17: 127.96 128.52: 13,884 : 19,289 : 25,720 : 25,653 /11,220: 11,836: 14,295 : 15,047 : 18,615 : 6,283 : 12,691 : 6,679 : 8,274 :
04/10:04/03: 127.84 128.42: 15,544 : 19,288 : 25,719 : 25,652 /11,547: 11,786: 14,274 : 15,025 : 18,588 : 5,901 : 11,875 : 6,812 : 8,965 :03/27: 127.46 127.55: 15,579 : 19,331 : 25,776 : 25,709 /11,670: 11,938: 14,348 : 16,176 : 21,403 : 5,570 : 11,482 : 6,826 : 8,487 :
03/20: 000.00 00.000: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /00.000: 00.000: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 0,000 :03/13: 127.50 127.73: 16,715 : 19,279 : 25,707 : 25,639 /10,988: 11,902: 14,131 : 16,376 : 21,293 : 5,836 : 12,472 : 6,788 : 8,075 :
03/06: 130.30 130.06: 16,838 : 19,421 : 25,896 : 25,828 /11,048: 12,168: 14,383 : 16,521 : 21,483 : 6,559 : 12,471 : 6,894 : 8,504 :
02/28: 130.??02/21: 130.77 130.93: 16,811 : 19,390 : 25,855 : 25,787 /11,130: 12,553: 14,376 : 14,661 : 21,471 : 6,223 : 12,910 : 6,680 : 8,333 :02/14: 130.58 130.79: 16,801 : 19,378 : 25,839 : 25,771 /11,140: 12,565: 14,371 : 14,657 : 21,465 : 6,243 : 12,928 : 6,849 : 8,046 :02/07: 131.01 131.29: 16,807 : 19.384 : 25,848 : 25,780 /11,141: 12,566: 14,377 : 14,662 : 21,473 : 6,421 : 12,941 : 6,877 : 8,288 :01/31: 131.95 132.35: 16,872 : 19,460 : 25,948 : 25,880 /11,117: 12,108: 14,380 : 14,666 : 21,478 : 6,808 : 12,779 : 7,138 : 8,890 :01/24: 132.90 134.03: 16,859 : 19,444 : 25,927 : 25,860 /12,215: 12,931: 15,247 : 15,488 : 21,506 : 6,833 : 12,975 : 7,180 : 9,069 :01/17: 134.95 136.44: 16,896 : 19,487 : 25,985 : 25,917 /12,746: 12,214: 15,362 : 15,604 : 21,667 : 6,848 : 13,585 : 7,539 : 9,081 :
01/10:01/03: 135.82 136.54: 17,033 : 19,646 : 26,196 : 26,127 /12,641: 13,207 : 15,458 : 16,541 : 21,803 : 6,454 : 12,283 : 7,542 : 9,421
12/27: 135.89 136.60: 17,047 : 19,662 : 26,217 : 26.149 /12,429: 12,985 : 15,387 : 16,465 : 21,703 : 6,487 : 12,243 : 7,568 : 9,436
12/20: 136.86
12/13: 137.30 139.05: 17,050 : 19,664 : 26,220 : 26,152 /12,511: 13,071 : 15,369 : 16,446 : 21,678 : 6,524 : 12,721 : 7,650 :12/06: 138.22 140.11: 17,061 : 19,827 : 26,239 : 26,171 /12,513: 13,072 : 15,381 : 16,458 : 21,694 : 6,526 : 13,674 : 7,636
11/29: 139.82 141.57: 17,125 : 19,901 : 26,338 : 26,269 /12,527: 12,979 : 15,443 : 16,525 : 21,782 : 6,856 : 13,731 : 6,856 :
11/22: 140.27 141.80:11/15: 141.13 142.74: 17,179 : 19,963 : 26,419 : 26,350 /13,228: 13,449 : 16,612 : 21,896 : 21,896 : 6,850 : 13,840 : 7,686 :
11/08: 142.14 143.62:11/01: 141.76 142.96: 17,226 : 20,018 : 26,493 : 26,423 /13,219: 13,002 : 15,506 : 16,592 : 21,871 : 6,675 : 14,476 : 7,662 :
10/25: 142.98 144.05: 17,315 : 20,121 : 26,629 : 26,559 /13,171: 13,391 : 15,603 : 17,933 : 22,008 : 7,047 : 13,947 : 7,749 :
10/18: 144.33 145.54: 17,339 : 20,150 : 26,667 : 26,597 /13,281: 13,503 : 15,625 : 17,959 : 22,039 : 7,035 : 13,997 : 7,778 :
10/11: 144.61 146.10: 16,123 : 20,129 : 26,640 : 23,026 /13,117: 13,337 : 15,555 : 17,878 : 21,940 : 7,050 : 13,989 : 7,746 :
10/04: 146.45 148.22: 16,168 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /13,179: 13,397 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 7,062 : 15,181 : 7,773 :
09/27: 146.01 147.61: 16,173 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /13,265: 13,484 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 6,514 : 15,101 : 7,772 :
09/20: 146.67 148.39: 16,180 : 20,201 : 26,735 : 23,107 /13,241: 13,203 : 15,628 : 17,962 : 21,183 : 6,508 : 15,134 : 7,817 :
09/13: 146.92 148.61: 16,182 : 20,203 : 26,737 : 23,110 /13,270: 13,232 : 15,638 : 17,973 : 21,196 : 6,519 : 15,119 : 7,833 : PEAK :=====
09/06: 146.76 148.27: 16,196 : 20,220 : 26,760 : 23,129 /13,055: 13,368 : 15,696 : 18,040 : 21,275 : 7,076 : 14,937 : 7,727 :
08/30: 146.78 148.27: 16,199 : 20,223 : 26,764 : 23,133 /12,963: 13,273 : 15,667 : 18,007 : 21,236 : 7,577 : 14,923 : 7,708 :08/23: 145.45 146.83: 16,169 : 20,187 : 26,716 : 23,092 /13,084: 13,487 : 15,682 : 18,024 : 21,257 : 6,719 : 14,335 :
08/16: 144.84 147.09: 15,530 : 19,999 : 26,467 : 22,877 /13,128: 13,533 : 15,601 : 17,930 : 21,146 : 6,647 : 14,309 :
08/09: 144.29 146.25: 15,545 : 20,019 : 26,494 : 22,890 /13,038: 13,556 : 15,581 : 19,024 : 21,120 : 7,247 : 14,268 :
08/02: 146.07 147.91: 15,671 : 20,181 : 26,709 : 23,085 /13,474: 13,569 : 15,647 : 17,583 : 21,209 : 7,022 : 15,186 :07/26: 145.48 147.41: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /00,000: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 6,594 : 14,956 :
07/19: 143.32 144.96:
07/12: 142.62 144.57: 15,591 : 19,942 : 26,391 : 22,811 /13,022: 13,344 : 15,651 : 17,464 : 21,067 : 7,073 : 14,183 :06/28: 000.00 000.00: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /00,000: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 6,656 : 14,243 :
06/07: 143.31 144.54: 15,493 : 20,014 : 25,251 : 22,894 /12,820: 12,965 : 16,454 : 17,515 : 22,361 : 6,500 : 14,315 :05/31: 141.96 143.40: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 /00,000: 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 00,000 : 6,958 : 14,356 :
05/24: 140.33 141.79:
05/17: 141.30 142.33:
05/10: 141.37 142.68: 16,540 : 19,897 : 24,380 : 22,761 /12,969: 12,893 : 16,610 : 17,121 : 22,153 : 6,155 : 13,883 :05/03: 141.46 143.28: 16,452 : 19,792 : 24,251 : 22,640 /12,845: 13,366 : 16,569 : 16,679 : 25,687 : 6,975 : 14,409 :04/26: 141.22 140.98: 15,525 : 19,924 : 24,413 : 22,792 /12,721: 13,315 : 16,558 : 16,625 : 22,813 : 6,260 : 14,347 :04/19: 140.04 141.27: 15,497 : 19,890 : 24,370 : 22,752 /12,664: 13,255 : 16,503 : 16,608 : 22,737 : 6,591 : 14,228 :04/12: 141.60 143.12: 15,507 : 19,902 : 24,386 : 22,766 /12,623: 13,614 : 16,591 : 16,697 : 22,848 : 6,941 : 14,240 :
04/05: 142.36 143.90: 15,526 : 19,927 : 24,416 : 22,794 /12,599: 13,336 : 15,210 : 16,742 : 22,910 : 7,005 : 14,997 :
03/29: 139.70 140.95: 15,432 : 19,807 : 24,269 : 22,657 /12,651: 12,994 : 14,335 : 16,578 : 22,658 : 6,984 : 13,906 :
03/22: 140.05 141.81: 15,403 : 19,768 : 24,222 : 22,613 /12,622: 12,950 : 14,298 : 16,535 : 22,626 : 7,012 : 14,485 :
03/15: 139.03 140.70: 15,381 : 19,740 : 24,187 : 22,581 /12,624: 12,951 : 14,280 : 16,514 : 22,598 : 7,008 : 13,363 :03/08: 138.80 140.46: 15,315 : 19,656 : 24,084 : 22,485 /12,689: 13,019 : 14,298 : 16,535 : 22,627 : 6,965 : 13,663 :
03/01: 137.12 138.67: 15,638 : 19,619 : 24,039 : 22,442 /12,437: 12,761 : 14,187 : 16,406 : 22,450 : 6,883 : 13,630 :
02/22: 136.20 137.34: 15,679 : 19,670 : 24.101 : 22,500 /12,641: 11,792 : 14,180 : 16,398 : 22,439 : 6,573 : 13,319 :02/15: 137.20 138.52: 15,672 : 19,661 : 24,091 : 22,491 /12,640: 11,791 : 14,193 : 16,412 : 22,459 : 6,570 : 13,932 :02/08: 136.64 137.46: 15,719 : 19,719 : 24,161 : 22,557 /11,447: 12,821 : 14,244 : 16,473 : 22,541 : 6,255 : 13,515 :02/01: 136.35 138.01: 15,557 : 19,517 : 23,914 : 22,325 /11,533: 12,649 : 14,197 : 16,146 : 23,227 : 6,692 : 13,945 :01/25: 134.03 135.01: 15,587 : 19,554 : 24,903 : 22,368 /11,378: 12,466 : 13,970 : 17,147 : 21,797 : 6,538 : 12,627 :01/18: 134.64 135.73: 15,608 : 19,581 : 24,936 : 22,398 /11,366: 12,311 : 13,997 : 17,179 : 21,838 : 6,079 : 13,586 :01/11: 133.64 135.35: 15,570 : 19,532 : 24,875 : 22,343 /11,333: 12,465 : 14,030 : 17,331 : 21,891 : 6,145 : 12,55401/03: 133.34 134.43: 15,556 : 19,515 : 24,853 : 22,323 /11,234: 12,546 : 13,953 : 15,674 : 21,770 : 6,538 : 12,883 :st.201512/28: 132.45 133.50: 15,491 : 19,434 : 24,750 : 22,230 /11,083: 12,582 : 13,947 : 15,883 : 21,760 : 6,141 : 13,301 :12/21: 132.69 133.76: 15,524 : 19,476 : 24,803 : 22,279 /11,155: 12,664 : 13,973 : 15,913 : 21,801 : 6,160 : 13,504 :12/14: 132.81 133.92: 15,516 : 19,465 : 24,790 : 22,267 /11,134: 12,640 : 13,976 : 15,916 : 21,805 : 6,534 : 12,264 :12/07: 131.61 132.65: 15,470 : 19,408 : 24,716 : 22,200 /11,731: 12,334 : 13,879 : 15,805 : 21,654 : 6,681 : 14,032 :11/30: 130.46 131.44: 15,447 : 19,379 : 24,679 : 22,167 /11,650: 12,430 : 13,910 : 15,841 : 21,703 : 6,275 : 12,67811/23: 130.16 131.47: 15,423 : 19,355 : 24,650 : 22,140 /11,599: 11,952 : 13,862 : 15,787 : 21,628 : 6,247 : 11,96011/16: 129.61 130.95: 15,343 : 19,249 : 24,514 : 22,018 /11,444: 11,793 : 13,796 : 15,712 : 21,525 : 6,157 : 12,39711/09: 129.69 130.55: 15,443 : 19,373 : 24,673 : 22,162 /11,428: 11,793 : 13,833 : 15,688 : 21,582 : 6,368 : 12,11111/02: 129.40 130.11: 15,425 : 19,351 : 24,644 : 22,136 /11,564: 11,934 : 13,883 : 16,349 : 21,661 : 6,205 : 11,80110/26: 129.39 130.04: 15,510 : 19,410 : 25,681 : 22,203 /11,460: 12,308 : 14,534 : 16,313 : 21,613 : 6,356 : 12,66810/19: 129.38 130.11: 15,503 : 19,385 : 25,648 : 22,174 /11,438: 12,156 : 14,520 : 16,297 : 21,592 : 6,356 : 12,66810/12: 129.83 130.46: 15,545 : 19,437 : 25,717 : 22,233 /11,539: 11,673 : 14,573 : 16,356 : 21,671 : 6,274 : 13,17810/05: 127.65 128.40: 15,423 : 19,350 : 25,602 : 24,326 /11,773: 12,151 : 14,254 : 16,243 : 21,520 : 5,943 : 12,36809/28: 128.14 128.33: 15,414 : 19,337 : 25,584 : 24,310 /11,687: 11,807 : 14,297 : 16,292 : 21,585 : 6,346 : 12,705
09/21: 127.46 128.06: 15,362 : 19,272 : 25,498 : 24,228 /11,712: 11,780 : 14,240 : 16,226 : 21,498 : 6,028 : 12,711
09/14: 126.80 127.51: 15,331 : 19,234 : 25,448 : 24,180 /11,652: 11,720 : 14,192 : 16,171 : 21,425 : 6,048 : 12,669
09/07: 126.14 126.59: 15,307 : 19,203 : 25,407 : 24,142 /11,463: 11,827 : 14,221 : 16,205 : 21,470 : 5,979 : 11,985
08/31: 126.94 127.33: 15,374 : 19,288 : 25,519 : 24,248 /11,282: 11,775 : 13,831 : 16,210 : 21,478 : 6,076 : 12,612
08/24: 126.20 126.64: 13,664 : 19,235 : 25,449 : 24,182 /11,227: 11,960 : 14,562 : 16,206 : 21,472 : 5,855 : 12,268
08/17: 125.31 125.59: 14,534 : 19,208 : 25,414 : 24,148 /11,036: 11,900 : 14,531 : 16,172 : 21,426 : 5,842 : 12,530
08/10: 125.66 125.64: 14,552 : 19,230 : 25,443 : 24,175 /11,143: 11,871 : 14,557 : 16,200 : 21,464 : 5,870 : 12,540
08/03: 124.00 124.22: 14.174 : 19,101 : 23,273 : 24,013 /11,036: 11,966 : 14,555 : 15,188 : 21,306 : 5,809 : 12,404
07/27: 123.54 124.24: 14,125 : 19,035 : 25,186 : 23,931 /11,119: 11,707 : 14,532 : 15,381 : 21,271 : 5,810 : 11,552
07/20: 123.20 123.70: 14,148 : 19,065 : 25,225 : 23,968 /10,995: 11,647 : 14,379 : 15,343 : 21,218 : 6,325 : 11,768
07/13: 123.36 123.87: 14,140 : 19,055 : 25,211 : 23,956 /11.009: 11,661 : 14,386 : 15,350 : 21,228 : 6,313 : 12,468
07/06: 123.32 123.71: 14,176 : 19,103 : 25,276 : 24,017 /11.017: 11,670 : 14,398 : 15,363 : 21,245 : 6,100 : 12,413
06/29: 121.19 121.42: 14,044 : 18,925 : 25,040 : 23,793 /10,490: 11,560 : 13,875 : 14,279 : 21,119 : 6,081 : 12,134
06/22: 121.16 121.12: 14,072 : 18,963 : 25,090 : 23,841 /10,526: 11,891 : 13,912 : 14,317 : 21,176 : 5,953 : 12,139
06/15: 119.89 119.81: 14,073 : 18,964 : 25,091 : 23,842 /10,602: 11,865 : 13,904 : 14,309 : 21,163 : 5,645 : 11,71906/08: 119.23 119.11: 14,041 : 18,922 : 23,789 : 23,789 /10,950: 11,771 : 13,864 : 14,267 : 21,103 : 5,630 : 11,724
06/01: 118.37 118.04: 13,237 : 19,155 : 24,962 : 23,718 /10,748: 11,356 : 13,789 : 14,274 : 22,134 : 5,592 : 11,294
05/25: 119.07 118.64: 13,747 : 19,239 : 25,073 : 23,823 /10,624: 11,594 : 13,192 : 15,379 : 22,987 : 5,603 : 11,149
05/18: 118.56 117.75: 13,729 : 19,215 : 25,041 : 23,794 /10,373: 11,319 : 13,124 : 17,042 : 22,871 : 5,947 : 11,219
05/11: 118.86 117.90: 13,716 : 19,196 : 20,016 : 23,770 /10,361: 11,246 : 13,127 : 17,044 : 22,874 : 5,653 : 11,346
05/04: 118.12 117.22: 13,742 : 19,232 : 25,062 : 23,814 /10,286: 11,120 : 13,069 : 16,969 : 22,773 : 5,713 : 11,248
04/27: 118.40 117.57: 13,708 : 19,186 : 23,880 : 23,757 /10,189: 11,148 : 13,036 : 16,927 : 22,717 : 5,660 : 12,59204/20: 118.31 117.41: 13,721 : 19,204 : 23,903 : 23,780 /10,206: 11,167 : 13,040 : 16,932 : 22,723 : 5,786 : 12,523
04/13: 119.04 117.94: 13,754 : 19,250 : 23,960 : 23,836 /10,291: 11,260 : 13,109 : 17,021 : 22,843 : 5,627 : 12,587
04/06: 118.82 117.99: 13,702 : 19,177 : 23,869 : 23,746 /10,254: 11,421 : 13,066 : 15,442 : 22,769 : 5,698 : 12,555
03/30: 117.22 116.40: 13,695 : 19,167 : 23,856 : 23,734 /10,342: 11,405 : 12,450 : 15,732 : 22,687 : 5,695 : 11,392
03/23: 118.42 117.73: 13,721 : 19,203 : 23,901 : 23,778 /10,407: 11,478 : 12,487 : 15,779 : 22,754 : 5,484 : 11,681
03/16: 118.25 117.60: 13,721 : 19,203 : 23,902 : 23,779 /10,405: 11,475 : 12,478 : 15,768 : 22,738 : 5,453 : 11,316
03/09: 117.18 116.29: 13,727 : 19,212 : 23,913 : 23,789 /10,439: 11,513 : 12,479 : 15,769 : 22,739 : 5,596 : 11,295
03/02: 118.02 117.12: 13,705 : 19,182 : 23,875 : 23,752 /10,379: 11,446 : 12,905 : 15,774 : 22,747 : 5,787 : 12,011
02/23: 117.77 116.91: 13,694 : 19,166 : 23,855 : 23,732 /10,513: 11,594 : 12,941 : 15,910 : 21,563 : 5,758 : 11,892
02/16: 117.59 116.52: 13,697 : 19,170 : 23,860 : 23,737 /10,575: 11,663 : 12,943 : 15,912 : 21,567 : 5,800 : 11,004
02/09: 118.08 117.34: 13,747 : 19,239 : 23,946 : 23,823 /10,543: 11,627 : 13,772 : 15,920 : 21,577 : 5,796 : 11,016
02/02: 118.31 117.32: 13,732 : 19,218 : 23,920 : 23,797 /10,474: 11,552 : 13,779 : 17,536 : 21,588 : 5,785 : 11,410
01/26: 117.56 116.47: 14,122 : 19,229 : 23,240 : 23,811 /10,128: 11,262 : 13,670 : 17,397 : 21,418 : 5,809 : 10,552
01/19: 118.20 117.19: 14,441 : 19,225 : 23,236 : 23,806 /10,207: 11,350 : 13,710 : 17,449 : 21,481 : 5,854 : 11,317
01/12: 117.71 116.65: 14,391 : 19,159 : 23,155 : 23,724 /10,222: 11,367 : 13,703 : 17,440 : 21,470 : 5,698 : 11,331
01/05: 118.94 118.08: 14,377 : 19,139 : 23,132 : 23,700 /10,482: 11,839 : 13,703 : 17,710 : 21,650 : 5,820 : 11,409
st.2014
Efficiency -NA- --NA- : 82.24% : 78.96%: 78.27%: 83.50%/74.89%: 74.31%:78.37%: 75.51%: 75.24%:74.58%: 87.32%
12/29: Prices / NetSF : 17,519 : 24,292 : 29,616 : 28,444 /14,397: 16,586 : 17,758 : 23,636 : 29,001 : 7,734 : 12,52412/29: 119.07 118.19: 14,407 : 19,180 : 23,181 : 23,750 /10,783: 12,325 : 13,926 : 17,849 : 21,820 : 5,768 : 10,936
12/22: 118.95 117.86: 14,427 : 19,207 : 23,213 : 23,782 /10,575: 12,086 : 13,868 : 17,774 : 21,728 : 5,801 : 10,965
12/15: 118.61 117.49: 14,431 : 19,212 : 23,219 : 23,789 /10,441: 11,933 : 13,813 : 17,704 : 21,642 : 5,807 : 10,627
12/08: 118.96 118.16: 13,247 : 19,816 : 23,177 : 23,746 /10,543: 12,050 : 13,280 : 16,816 : 21,662 : 5,796 : 10,712
12/01: 119.53 118.56: 13,311 : 19,911 : 23,288 : 23,859 /10,601: 12,116 : 13,518 : 16,875 : 21,739 : 5,792 : 10,78611/24: 120.39 119.64: 13,672 : 19,916 : 23,294 : 23,866 /10,499: 12,000 : 13,485 : 16,834 : 21.979 : 5,961 : 10,86411/17: 120.13 119.39: 12,715 : 19,917 : 23,295 : 23,867 /10,481: 11,979 : 13,469 : 16,814 : 21,954 : 5,795 : 11,986
11/10: 119.93 119.16: 12,706 : 19,904 : 23,280 : 23,851 /10,494: 11,994 : 13,471 : 16,817 : 21,957 : 5,816 : 11,696
11/03: 120.72 120.03: 12,730 : 19,940 : 23,323 : 23,896 /10,454: 11,949 : 13,485 : 17,051 : 21,980 : 5,984 : 11,872
10/27: 119.50 118.67: 12,717 : 19,920 : 23,299 : 23,871 /10,576: 11,958 : 13,468 : 17,029 : 21,339 : 5,768 : 10,869
10/20: 120.08 119.41: 12,718 : 19,921 : 23,301 : 23,871 /10,597: 11,982 : 13,477 : 17,040 : 21,353 : 6,039 : 11,70910/13: 119.87 119.11: 12,715 : 19,917 : 23,296 : 23,868 /10,514: 11,603 : 13,757 : 17,006 : 21,620 : 5,995 ; 11,74110/06: 119.83 118.97: 12,707 : 19,905 : 23,281 : 23,853 //9,989 : 11,647 : 13,779 : 17,034 : 22,341 : 5,980 : 11,98609/29: 120.00 119.37: 12,691 : 19,879 : 23,251 : 23,821 /10,051 : 11,719 : 13,787 : 17,043 : 22,353 : 6,004 : 11,95009/22: 121.08 120.61: 12,783 : 20,024 : 23,421 : 23,996 /10,039 : 11,706 : 14,348 : 16,502 : 21,352 : 6,267 : 12,453
09/15: 120.84 120.39: 12,779 : 20,018 : 23,413 : 23,988 /10,035 : 11,701 : 14,336 : 16,489 : 20,664 : 6,291 : 12,458
09/08: 121.94 121.32: 12,816 : 20,076 : 23,841 : 20,076 /10,014 : 11,463 : 14,379 : 17,234 : 21,115 : 6,303 : 12,489
09/01: 120.86 120.44: 12,669 : 19,845 : 23,211 : 23,781 /10,046 : 11,858 : 13,777 : 17,202 : 21,076 : 6,329 : 12,484
08/25: 119.85 119.17: 12,697 : 19,889 : 23,263 : 23,834 /10,018 : 11,826 : 13,759 : 17,179 : 21,047 : 5,686 : 11,853
08/18: 119.79 119.54: 12,631 : 19,787 : 23,143 : 23,711 /10,007 : 11,813 : 13,722 : 15,069 : 20,993 : 5,686 : 11,751
08/11: 119.30 118.69: 12,661 : 19,833 : 23,197 : 23,766 // 9,934 : 11,062 : 14,795 : 15,059 : 20,980 : 5,343 : 11,781
08/04: 120.41 119.74: 12,684 : 19,869 : 23,239 : 23,809 /10,159 : 11,312 : 14,931 : 15,198 : 21,172 : 5,935 : 11,880
07/28: 120.95 120.29: 13,445 : 19,903 : 23,279 : 23,850 /10,076 : 11,850 : 14,920 : 15,186 : 22,183 : 6,021 : 12,001
07/21: 120.61 120.36: 13,374 : 19,799 : 23,157 : 23,725 /10,101 : 11,880 : 14,410 : 15,136 : 22,110 : 6,059 : 11,557
07/14: 120.14 119.82: 13,366 : 19,786 : 23,142 : 23,710 /10,136 : 11,921 : 14,401 : 15,126 : 21,910 : 6,054 : 10,998
07/07: 119.69 119.11: 13,387 : 19,818 : 23,180 : 23,749 /10,136 : 11,920 : 14,415 : 16,132 : 21,930 : 6,236 : 10,464
06/30: 121.88 121.58: 13,502 : 19,987 : 23,377 : 23,950 /10,111 : 11,890 : 14,432 : 16,152 : 21,957 : 6,233 : 12,021
06/23: 121.22 120.64: 13,416 : 19,861 : 23,229 : 23,800 /10,019 : 11,783 : 14,413 : 16,129 : 21,927 : 6,320 : 12,162
06/16: 119.96 118.69: 13,454 : 19,916 : 23,294 : 23,866 /10,045 : 11,813 : 14,449 : 16,186 : 21,983 : 5,949 : 11,622
06/09: 120.74 119.57: 13,470 : 19,940 : 23,323 : 23,895 /10,072 : 11,845 : 14,463 : 16,186 : 22,004 : 6,360 : 12,256
06/02: 120.14 118.81: 13,429 : 19,879 : 23,251 : 23,822 /10,251 : 11,947 : 14,531 : 16,262 : 22,107 : 6,435 : 12,009
05/26: 119.06 118.31: 13,430 : 19,881 : 23,253 : 23,824 /10,026 : 11,649 : 13,760 : 15,031 : 21,826 : 6,130 : 11,847
05/19: 118.79 117.85: 16,070 : 19,830 : 23,193 : 23,763 // 9,971 : 11,585 : 13,751 : 15,021 : 21,851 : 5,883 : 11,912
05/12: 118.58 117.61: 16,066 : 19,825 : 23,188 : 23,758 // 9,981 : 11,597 : 13,752 : 15,021 : 21,852 : 6,032 : 11,772
05/05: 118.51 117.60: 16,089 : 19,853 : 24,180 : 23,791 /10,564 : 11,268 : 13,716 : 14,983 : 21,795 : 5,973 : 11,326
04/28: 118.84 118.08: 16,008 : 19,754 : 24,060 : 23,672 /10,673 : 12,150 : 13,755 : 15,024 : 21,857 : 5,877 : 11,710
04/21: 118.71 117.70: 16,036 : 19,788 : 24,101 : 23,712 /10,676 : 12,158 : 13,775 : 16,117 : 21,888 : 5,750 : 11,878
04/14: 120.12 119.35: 16,052 : 19,807 : 24,124 : 23,736 /11,207 : 12,198 : 13,807 : 16,155 : 21,939 : 5,795 : 11,936
04/07: 121.83 121.29: 16,080 : 19,843 : 24,168 : 23,779 /11,373 : 12,379 : 13,891 : 16,253 : 22,072 : 6,174 : 12,008
03/31: 123.01 122.22: 16,163 : 19,945 : 24,292 : 23,900 /11,419 : 12,430 : 13,956 : 16,329 : 22,176 : 6,160 : 12,131
03/24: 123.45 122.72: 16,175 : 19,960 : 24,311 : 23,919 /11,428 : 12,439 : 13,964 : 16,339 : 22,190 : 6,184 : 12,159
03/17: 123.66 122.98: 16,180 : 19,966 : 24,318 : 23,926 /11,336 : 12,339 : 13,936 : 16,305 : 22,144 : 6,441 : 12,302
03/10: 122.09 121.41: 16,128 : 19,901 : 24,239 : 23,848 /11,413 : 12,423 : 13,916 : 16,283 : 22,114 : 6,420 : 11,519
03/03: 121.95 121.27: 15,168 : 19,889 : 24,224 : 23,834 /10,549 : 12,383 : 13,374 : 16,263 : 22,087 : 6,403 : 11,934
02/24: 121.64 120.97: 14,242 : 19,941 : 24,287 : 23,896 /10,917 : 12,147 : 13,168 : 16,227 : 22,037 : 6,325 : 11,939
02/17: 121.58 120.27: 14,241 : 19,940 : 24,286 : 23,894 /10,894 : 11,901 : 13,212 : 16,667 : 22,112 : 6,586 : 12,022
02/10: 121.73 120.41: 14,280 : 19,994 : 24,352 : 23,960 /10,889 : 11,896 : 13,211 : 16,666 : 22,111 : 6,350 : 11,805
02/03: 120.66 119.40: 13,692 : 19,900 : 24,237 : 23,847 /10,547 : 12,114 : 15,331 : 16,609 : 22,036 : 6,215 : 12,309
01/27: 119.13 117.60: 15,144 : 19,818 : 24,138 : 23,749 /10,670 : 11,039 : 15,262 : 16,685 : 21,937 : 6,336 : 12,149
01/20: 118.38 116.61: 15,133 : 19,803 : 24,120 : 23,731 /10,664 : 10,993 : 15,260 : 16,683 : 21,241 : 6,281 : 11,815
01/13: 115.93 114.29: 14,982 : 19,605 : 23,879 : 23,494 /10,429 : 10,751 : 13,108 : 16,490 : 22,215 : 6,202 : 11,214
01/06: 115.60 113.93: 14,994 : 19,621 : 23,898 : 22,244 /10,478 : 11,211 : 12,741 : 16,502 : 22,231 : 6,071 : 11,041st.2013
Efficiency -NA- --NA- : 82.24% : 78.96%: 78.27%: 83.50%/74.89%: 74.31%:78.37%: 75.51%: 75.24%:74.58%: 87.32%
12/30: Prices / NetSF : 18,221 : 24,835 : 30,512 : 26,639 /13,929 : 15,020 : 16,257 : 21,606 : 29,492 : 8,116 : 13,359
12/30: 115.78 114.25: 14,985 : 19,609 : 23,883 : 22,244 /10,432 : 11,161 : 12,740 : 16,316 : 22,189 : 6,053 : 11,665
12/23: 115.18 113.61: 14,092 : 19,603 : 23,876 : 22,237 /10,514 : 11,719 : 12,753 : 16,332 : 22,210 : 5,957 : 11,429
12/16: 114.97 113.50: 14,072 : 19,574 : 23,840 : 22,024 /10,527 : 11,733 : 12,744 : 16,319 : 22,193 : 5,988 : 11,288
12/09: 114.57 113.20: 14,037 : 19,527 : 22,150 : 22,150 /10,229 : 11,699 : 12,715 : 16,283 : 22,144 : 5,995 : 10,892
12/02: 114.38 112.52: 14,035 : 19,523 : 23,778 : 22,146 /10,423 : 11,896 : 13,656 : 17,883 : 22,324 : 5,978 : 10,810
11/25: 115.05 113.11: 16,570 : 19,594 : 23,865 : 22,227 /10,293 : 11,749 : 13,633 : 17,853 : 22,286 : 6,042 : 11,590
11/18: 116.17 114.32: 16,597 : 19,626 : 23,904 : 22,264 // 9,815 : 11,584 : 13,602 : 17,811 : 22,234 : 6,198 : 11,695
11/11: 116.81 114.20: 16,717 : 19,768 : 25,410 : 22,424 // 9,984 : 11,784 : 14,531 : 16,714 : 22,466 : 6,361 : 11,528
11/04: 116.07 113.81: 16,666 : 19,708 : 23,167 : 22,356 // 9,975 : 11,646 : 12,887 : 16,680 : 22,420 : 6,194 : 10,911
10/28: 114.35 112.33: 16,564 : 19,587 : 23,025 : 22,039 // 9,925 : 10,805 : 12,736 : 15,744 : 22,906 : 6,137 : 11,461
10/21: 112.25 110.37: 16,336 : 19,318 : 22,708 : 21,735 // 9,864 : 10,738 : 12,649 : 15,583 : 23,432 : 6,146 : 11,317
10/14: 111.19 109.41: 15,804 : 19,268 : 22,649 : 21,679/ 10,048 : 10,897 : 12,901 : 15,555 : 20,753 : 5,814 : 11,091
10/07: 111.11 109.21: 14,469 : 19,337 : 22,730 : 21,756 // 9,780 : 11,298 : 12,407 : 16,922 : 20,729 : 5,904 : 10,798
09/30: 110.14 108.55: 14,400 : 19,246 : 22,623 : 21,652/ 10,018 : 10,804 : 12,341 : 15,017 : 20,620 : 5,657 : 11,485
09/23: 109,81 107.88: 14,478 : 19,348 : 22,745 : 21,770/ 10,099 : 10,892 : 12,809 : 15,602 : 21,015 : 5,628 : 10,700
09/16: 108.17 106.05: 14,340 : 19,164 : 22,528 : 21,563/ 10,089 : 10,880 : 12,784 : 15,572 : 20,975 : 5,556 : 10,262
09/09: 108.80 107.02: 14,343 : 19,169 : 22,534 : 21,568 // 9,976 : 10,785 : 11,176 : 15,506 : 19,828 : 5,498 : 10,578
09/02: 107.99 105.85: 14,360 : 19,191 : 22,559 : 18,625 // 9,952 : 10,837 : 11,891 : 16,102 : 19,822 : 5,561 : 10,582
08/26: 106.89 105.17: 14,324 : 19,144 : 22,504 : 18,580 // 9,622 : 11,021 : 11,811 : 15,995 : 22,319 : 5,404 : 10,538
08/19: 107.18 105.22: 14,342 : 19,168 : 22,532 : 18,603 // 9,671 : 10,741 : 12,197 : 16,052 : 22,612 : 5,447 : 10,893
08/12: 106.85 104.85: 14,311 : 19,126 : 22,483 : 18,563 // 9,638 : 10,815 : 12,324 : 16,031 : 22,582 : 5,412 : 10,292
08/05: 105.78 103.33: 14,313 : 19,128 : 22,486 : 18,565 // 9,659 : 10,988 : 12,822 : 16,052 : 22,612 : 5,162 : 10,208
07/29: 106.54 103.71: 14,375 : 19,212 : 22,584 : 18,646 // 9,663 : 11,145 : 12,879 : 16,123 : 20,313 : 5,345 : 10,689
07/22: 104.93 101.99: 14,275 : 19,978 : 22,426 : 18,516 // 9,362 : 11,096 : 12,831 : 16,063 : 20,124 : 5,123 : 10,211
07/15: 104.25 101.41: 12,156 : 19,067 : 22,414 : 18,506 // 9,247 : 10,960 : 12,759 : 15,974 : 20,011 : 5,114 : 10,061
07/08: 105.01 102.33: 12,511 : 19,078 : 22,427 : 18,516 // 9,262 : 10,978 : 12,772 : 15,990 : 20,031 : 5,031 : 10,759
07/01: 105.46 103.13: 12,586 : 19,193 : 22,562 : 18,628 // 9,300 : 10,976 : 12,762 : 15,491 : 20,569 : 5,179 : 10,518
06/24: 104.60 102.33: 12,489 : 19,045 : 22,387 : 18,484 // 9,241 : 10,906 : 12,712 : 15,430 : 20,487 : 5,185 : 10,546
06/17: 104.14 102.01: 12,435 : 18,963 : 22,291 : 18,404 // 9,232 : 10,896 : 12,686 : 15,399 : 18,599 : 5,110 : 10,530
06/10: 103.82 101.35: 12,457 : 18,997 : 22,330 : 18,437 // 9,225 : 10,589 : 12,699 : 15,415 : 18,618 : 5,070 : 10,185
06/03: 104.01 101.85: 12,455 : 18,993 : 22,326 : 18,433 // 9,252 : 10,620 : 12,686 : 15,398 : 18,598 : 5,205 : 11,093
05/27: 104.00 101.72: 13,777 : 19,733 : 22,334 : 18,440 // 9,643 : 10,710 : 12,740 : 15,465 : 18,678 : 5,253 : 10,659
05/20: 103.94 101.89: 13,697 : 18,052 : 22,306 : 18,416: 10,004 : 10,404 : 12,716 : 15,435 : 18,642 : 5,137 : 10,877
05/13: 103.35 101.46: 13,698 : 17,972 : 22,206 : 18,334 // 9,798 : 10,367 : 12,401 : 15,314 : 17,941 : 5,083 : 10,186
05/06: 102.89 101.40: 13,588 : 17,828 : 22,028 : 18,187 // 9,967 : 10,532 : 12,295 : 14,219 : 17,491 : 5,013 : 10,719
04/29: 101.12: 98.90 : 13,579 : 17,815 : 22,012 : 17,031 // 9,841 : $9,904 : 11,634 : 14,648 : 17,423 : 5,054 : : 9,922
04/22: 102.17 100.05: 13.644 : 17.901 : 22,118 : 17,113 // 9,793 : 10,022 : 11,636 : 14,651 : 17,426 : 5,221 : 10,663
04/15: 102.50 100.71: 13,610 : 17,856 : 22,064 : 17,856 // 9,390 : 10,442 : 11,661 : 14,682 : 17,463 : 5,017 : 10,886
04/08: 101.79: 99.76 : 13,800 : 17,866 : 22,075 : 17,080 // 9,493 : 10,477 : 11,668 : 15,102 : 17,473 : 4,865 : 10,581
04/01: 101.17: 99.15 : 13,795 : 17,860 : 22,067 : 17,074 // 9,550 : 10,401 : 11,641 : 14,441 : 18,548 : 4,871 : 10.384
03/25: 100.06: 97.97 : 13,723 : 17,766 : 21,952 : 16,985 // 9,296 : 10,105 : 11,346 : 13,907 : 18,359 : 4,926 : 10,373
03/18 : 99.17 : 96.75 : 12,738 : 17,747 : 21,928 : 16,966 // 9,230 : 10,160 : 11,380 : 13,949 : 18,414 : 4,766 : : 9,850
03/11 : 98.41 : 95.72 : 12,691 : 17,682 : 21,848 : 16,904 // 9,165 : 10,089 : 11,358 : 15,071 : 19,152 : 4,736 : : 9,615
03/04 : 96.69 : 94.28 : 11,591 : 17,531 : 21,662 : 16,760 // 9,029 : $9,937 : 11,244 : 14,269 : 18,960 : 4,751 : : 9,728
02/26 : 95.15 : 93.14 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,449 : $9,638 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 21,504 : 4,808 : : 9,702
02/19 : 94.38 : 92.10 : 11,515 : 17,416 : 21,520 : 16,650 // 8,580 : $9,784 : 11,160 : 13,048 : 20,058 : 4,770 : : 9,499
02/12 : 95.01 : 92.68 : 13,132 : 17,364 : 21,455 : 16,600 // 8,659 : $9,874 : 11,210 : 13,107 : 20,148 : 4,768 : 10,038
02/05 : 95.04 : 92,63 : 13,988 : 17,384 : 21,481 : 16,620 // 8,576 : $9,779 : 11,185 : 13,078 : 20,103 : 4,790 : : 9,873
01/29 : 94.47 : 91.91 : 13,981 : 17,377 : 21,471 : 16,613 // 8,770 : $9,663 : 11,145 : 13,031 : 20,031 : 4,730 : : 9,884
01/22 : 94.75 : 92.17 : 13,994 : 17,392 : 21,490 : 16,627 // 8,762 : $9,654 : 11,152 : 13,039 : 20,043 : 4,871 : : 9,875
01/15 : 94.31 : 91.66 : 13,986 : 17,383 : 21,478 : 16,618 // 8,762 : $9,655 : 11,146 : 13,032 : 20,032 : 4,667 : : 9,864
01/08 : 94.16 : 91.25 : 14,014 : 17,417 : 21,520 : 16,651 // 8,780 : $9,674 : 12,250 : 13,060 : 20,075 : 4,630 : : 9,295
01/01 : 95.47 : 92.41 : 14,080 : 17,499 : 21,622 : 16,729 // 9,135 : 10,399 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,378 : 4,631 : : 9,160st.2012
12/25 : 96.68 : 93.89 : 14,091 : 17,513 : 21,639 : 16,743 // 9,100 : 10,147 : 12,431 : 13,252 : 20,371 : 4,610 : : 9,877
12/18 : 96.81 : 94.03 : 14,104 : 17,529 : 21,659 : 16,758 // 9,109 : 10,157 : 12,436 : 13,258 : 20,379 : 4,620 : : 9,882
12/11 : 97.10 : 94.37 : 14,128 : 17,560 : 21,697 : 16,787 // 8,950 : $9,980 : 12,379 : 13,196 : 20,285 : 4,619 : 10,357
12/04 : 98.13 : 94.30 : 14,189 : 17,635 : 21,790 : 16,859 // 9,016 : 10,054 : 12,435 : 13,257 : 20,131 : 4,834 : 10,3792007
10/28:: 59.36 : 57.22 :Historical Data : http://202.72.14.52/...rchHistory.aspx
OTHER LINKSHiddenForum : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=920
AXpat Forum :: http://hongkong.asia...-kong-property/
Cental-Data :: http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm
GEI secret-- :: http://www.greenener...p?showtopic=920 : hidden thread
TLB history :: http://hk.centadata.com/eptest.aspx?type=2&code=EGPPWPPJPW&info=tr&page=0
Show Flats- :: http://www.gohome.co...ew-property/en/
Price Track :: http://eng.data.28hse.com/
AX property :: http://tinyurl.com/HKprops
Hong Kong property outlook - and Data Base
in Main: Property in UK, US, Oz, HK, etc
Posted
Thanks for your input Dr Bubb,
In your opinion, based on the latest bounce-back of transaction volumes in Hk following the anti speculation measures, would you expect the Government to intervene further? I would agree that an increase in interest rates would bring about a correction, however based on recent US treasury news, this does seem a way off. Unless of course if they adjust the peg!
As per the thread topic, most commentators are predicting a modest year for housing prices. It seems to me taking into account foretasted GDP growth, inflation, low unemployment, etc. this is probably true.
As for CC, It appears that the available supply is low of units for lease which would support these high rental returns for quite some time. Personally, I'm considering buying another as a vehicle to building equity with the mindset to get out before the peak. I guess the indicators of increased media "bubble reporting", govt interference and the like would indicate the timing to exit.