Ziknew

...

To hedge the risk of this, I've decided to trade half the position; take a 50% profit on half, and re-invest after a period of consolidation. Even though this may mean buying at a higher price, the point of the hedge trade is to increase a US dollar position.

Does "take a 50% profit on half" = "Sell 25% of the total" ?

You may find this article useful...

http://www.zealllc.com/2012/silvseas2.htm

This looks near bottom to me... third time down, and slow grind down this time.... now for the slow grind up:

 

My guess is:

Silver is not going up before the Greek election (17 June).

An austerity supporting mainstream party will win the election (or form a coalition) in Greece. 3 days later (20 June) the US FED will expand their QE programme or at least give a very strong hint that they are willing to print more. A temporary bottom in silver will happen around the 2 events.

There will be a really lasting 6 weeks maximum, the $35 level will be taken out in this really. The rally ends when the new Greek government announce that they MUST re-negotiate the previous bailout.

Silver will drop

By September the pressure on Germany will cause them to announce some QE. The amount of QE will fail to meet the demands of the printing cheerleaders and the market will continue to bomb. However, the actual start of the QE will cause the market to turn and we will have another temporary bottom. We will get another rally, maybe 2 or 3 weeks.

The rally will end when the market realises what’s really going on with the QE. Germany will insist the QE is used to buy government bonds in relation to their contribution to the ECB. This will mean Germany receives most of the QE money and Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland & Spain will receive less than they wanted. Market will drag down again.

Following the US election, BarrrickO will care less about oil prices and the FED will launch a bigger QE with the BofE, BofJ, ECB, SNB etc. This QE programme will send us off for a 2 -3 year rally.

i will be brave and show my hand for future reference. here is my disposition to date:-

 

issue / avg price paid per share (profit or loss) relative position size

 

SVM 6.6075 (-3.9%) 5

SSRI 14.095 (-4.5%) 8

PAAS 20.24 (-8.5%) 8

KGC 9.254 (-4.1%) 4

GPL 1.95 (-0.5%) 2

FSM 3.979 (-8.8%) 2

 

i am running out of money now and i am wondering if these buggers will ever stop falling

if the stocks keep falling relative to silver i will sell some silver and keep buying them.

 

i would like to be more diverse in the sector but these are the only stocks that are getting a YES from my valuation model. kgc is the most compelling of all - it is off the charts! what is wrong with kgc? or perhaps there is something wrong with my valuation model ! i plan to buy more kgc in the next few days. may the lord have mercy on my soul

 

i suppose the selling has to end some day. if the price of silver collapse tomorrow, no one would be surprised. that is why i think we're nearly done. in 2008, the collpase was a total shock. who was that irritating commentator who was heard on broadcast almost in tears?

You are doing better than me.

I have all of those shares (all bought within 1 year) and I am well down...

SVM -17.02%

SSRI -36.95%

PAAS -20.38%

KGC -32.28%

GPL -24.74%

FSM -17.58%

I wish I had a valuation model

I have moved you to "Members" group.

 

Are there really more restrictions on Members2?

If so, I wasn't aware of that

Thanks,

I was trying to steal another members avatar and I couldn't.

Sorted now

I will send you a PM with that.

I welcome your comment by return PM.

 

In your case many months ago, I think the Mod overdid it considerably.

 

But you may be in a good position to comment on my reaction.

It's not necessary. I saw the part deleted post and was able to have a good guess at the blanks.

I would like you to consider moving my account in to the members group so I can choose my own avatar, signature and use the search (I am currently restricted)

I am suspending CIGA for a week for his insult on another thread (which I shall probably delete later)

Moderation in public is a positive development. We can all see who was banned and for how long in this case.

I know I am too late... but maybe such comments should not be deleted so we can all see what is deemed unacceptable.

...

There must be some happy folks out there, enjoying the discount.

Yes

I might pick up a few GLD calls, or Bull Spreads to today, but save "powder"

for later, in case Gold breaks support, and gets cheaper.

I'm saving some powder too

That's "Money Velocity".

People, banks, and companies are not spending as fast as they once did.

 

That is partly because banks are not lending money as easily as before, I suppose.

The chart shows the ratio of quarterly nominal GDP to the quarterly average of M2 money stock.

I don’t believe it is possible to conclude “People, banks, and companies are not spending as fast as they once did” from the chart

And the chart definitely does not show “That is partly because banks are not lending money as easily as before, I suppose.”

This chart must be read in conjunction with the M2 Money Supply chart and the GDP chart to draw meaning full conclusions.

There's a New "Gold and Currency Thread" there.

And there's an excellent chance that oen will get merged with this one.

Soon. Maybe even as soon as tomorrow.

It depends what the posts look like here and there.

 

Welcome back, BTW

 

(We now have 3 fewer Mods, and I will slim down further very soon.)

 

Why not start a new thread on some subject that really interests you, to show folks you are back.

I’m not really a thread starting sort of guy but I will contribute to other threads… maybe I will start a political thread or something later if I feel there are enough people interested.

But, at the moment, I’m just going to hold back a little to see how phase 2 plays out (adding new moderators)

Howdy, Zik.

How are you doing.

Actually, I am moving now to the next step, on slimming Mods

I'm smiling now It's good to see the moderator list slimmed down (no disrespect to those who have helped you in the last few years, I am sure they've always done what they thought was right).

I've seen some of the action here in the last few days but I have missed the build up and therefore I am not really in a position to comment...

...but I'm going to comment anyway. In my mind, GEI is a forum where people discuss and share. And on that forum there are gold, silver, hyperinflation and Major Derivative... threads on the first page. Romans Holiday, G0ldfinger and DrBubb are three of the heavy weights.

Is GEI the same in your head without the Gold forum on the first page and G0ldfinger away?

Obviously you can’t make G0ldfinger come back but you can control the where the Gold thread sits. It's probably been a really long day for you today so take a break and think about it tomorrow.

All the Mods are going, one by one.

Then I will add new ones later.

...

Your PM box is full.

I think a changeover of moderators would be positive for the site.

May I suggest that future moderators only hold the post for a 4-6 month period and therefore remember what it is like to be a poster here.

I think other members would be interested in returning also if there was a changeover of moderators. Maybe G0ldfinger would also return when he see’s there has been a misunderstanding and all the mods have been changed.