Itinerant Wanderer

THIS is going to explode.

 

Hi Goldfinger,

For those of us that aren't charty sort of folk (and by this I mean don't fully understand them rather than don't believe in them) could you give us a little more info on what you mean by this chart and how you think we should interpret it.

Thanks

CS

I must confess Gold and Silver have me flumoxed at the moment. Although I freely admit I haven't traded them well, my portfolio is worth less than several months ago and I haven't traded THAT badly. I am now fixed in some longs and won't trade but simply hold. However it still amazes me that G&S remain stuck in a range and keep getting smacked down every time they try to break out.

I'm more convinced than ever they are a good investment in the medium term but I'm generating a better return on my cash at the moment! Why is this? I know markets can remain irrational - I'm one of those STRs who STR'd too early (but not much too early). Fortunately housing is now falling back in line with the laws of gravity. However it took far too long (for my comfort) for housing to do this. I hope G+S won't take an equally long time to rise in line with inflationary pressures.

Perhaps I should just not look at forums and prices until the Autumn... if the Fed keep bluffing about rate rises and haven't stuck them up by then, then maybe G+S will start getting a second look.

OK, sorry. It was me. I dipped another toe in the water just yesterday. News must have hit the market this a.m. I'll let you guys know in advance next time I'm buying anything. I'll fetch my coat...

Perfick. I'm not due back in London till 2010-11. I'll just sit the next couple of years out....

Two pronged warning of imminent Gold price correction:

- I upped my long position today

- my broker displays the following add on its login page - Commodities Seminars – London, Birmingham and Manchester

Learn how to access commodities with Société Générale covered warrants, listed products and Lyxor ETFs. Find out more >

Does the latter sound familiar?

CS

OK, here's the deal. I'm making a mess of Gold (though fortunately I'm still well in profit, just not as much as I should be...). I didn't sell out at 1030 as I meant too. I then had my stop losses triggered a while ago in the 870s and was looking to buy back in at 850 the other day but didn't get round to it - busy day job, 3 kids, and I'm three time zones away from my London stockbroker meaning its difficult to make time to trade. I'm now stuck watching gold go up to 900+. I'm about 1/3 of my gold fund invested, the rest is in cash. Should I be biting the bullet and buying back in now? Or should I wait for another correction and risk missing out and buying in again much higher up? Its the old fear-greed thing.... Views?

P.S. I may not actually take your advice, so don't be afraid about giving it! I won't sue you....

Hi,

I don't think he thought 15% was the maximum it would fall. Rather what he expected it would fall by - which was what struck me, the matter of fact way in which he accepted this as almost given. So yes, presumably he would entertain the idea of larger falls. (I certainly hope so!)

CS

Interesting. FWIW I had the opportunity to quiz a former Deputy Governer of the Bank of England about all this recently. He expected to see drops in house prices of about 15% in the next two years and confessed things had got somewhat out of whack. He noted that a 10% drop in house prices would counterbalance his entire annual salary for the year and that, soberingly, such a fall would mean he'd see 'no net gain' in wealth during the year. It wouldn't affect this individual, but that would really hurt some people living on the margin.

Well the crooks at the LME are letting Bear Stearns still trade. More than likely this is to keep its short positions open until they can be taken over by JPM or another. The covering of BS PM shorts would have caused a moonshot for all PMs.

 

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle3556387.ece

 

The talk on the trading floors was that banks had gradually been withdrawing from dealing with Bear since suspicions heightened as to its safety on Thursday.

 

But the London Metal Exchange displayed its confidence in the bank. In a note circulated to its clearing members it said: “For as long as Bear Stearns remains a member of the LME and in good standing at the LME's clearing house, LCH. Clearnet, Bear Stearns will remain entitled to trade on LME Select.”

Sorry, PM? What is PM? (I'm from Government so can only think of Prime Minister which I know isn't right....)

Dr B.,

I know I've asked a few times - any sign of a CDNX proxy around yet? If not, which junior minors do you currently favour? RGLD is taking some paperwork for me to buy (because its on NASDAQ so I have to fill in some forms...). Anything UK or European based?

CS

Can you buy an ETF or similar that tracks CDNX or junior miners?