dom

It's easier to click the link in my sig.

 

 

 

However, if you want to argue the case for a gold standard, register and post away. Should be a good scrap if some of the heavyweight here get involved.

Here's your chance, Bill has just logged in. Click my sig.

Ok, I have added it to my bookmarks and will try to give it some time when available. Care to post a synopsis of his thinking?

It's easier to click the link in my sig.

However, if you want to argue the case for a gold standard, register and post away. Should be a good scrap if some of the heavyweight here get involved.

Thats a whole load to read!!

But well worth the effort whether you agree with him or not.

Hey, that "good" money is worth more bad money than it was yesterday!

Bill don't like gold too much, find out why.

feels good!

Who's got short positions on US treasuries?

Not too shabby today. Another all time high versus the pound. No surprise there. Those fools who STR'd and did not protect themselves will soon only to able to afford a big mac and fries.

Fascinating times we live in.

I watch the COT and open interest reports. In my experience, when they show extremes, like now, it is always followed by a big move.

We will see a breathtaking rally in the next few weeks.

100% guaranteed

Gold is holding up pretty well, the Dow and houses still look like awful turds in terms of gold.

 

I have always been interested in the fair nominal price of gold given current M3 levels. Most estimates are north of $10,000.

 

Regarding money, they produce arbitrary amounts of it at the moment. So, watch out.

 

I wish you good luck with US Treasuries and Federal Reserve Notes.

I have always been interested in the fair nominal price of gold given current M3 levels. Most estimates are north of $10,000.

You can play that game with anything - it's meaningless. I have a 1981 Volvo 244dl sitting in the field. There's not many left in the world and they aren't making anymore. I could use your methodology to value it but it would be futile if I wanted to sell.

Regarding money, they produce arbitrary amounts of it at the moment. So, watch out.

"They" produce arbitrary amounts of everything, so watch out?

I wish you good luck with US Treasuries and Federal Reserve Notes.

I have no interest in either, unless to short when the time comes. It some gold owners who appear more concerned.

We'll see. Gold is now very volatile. Fundamentally I still see better chances of $3,000 than $300 over the medium term.

And the money will come from where? Why the interest in the nominal value? Does your gold by the same amount of oil, wheat, sugar, land, etc as it always has?

Deep irony.

The real issue however is both of you are trying to predict the future.

 

Support and resistance lines I can understand the psychological basis for, but there are so many things in play in the deleveraging, how can you really have any certainty about any price target?

 

The real problem gold has is that it doesn't have a dividend, it has little utility, and it doesn't pay a coupon. In short, you can't price it against its potential for future utilisation.

 

The only raison d'etre is as a backdoor stop and the ultimate hedge if things get hyper inflationary and cause a swing in sentiment - but at present, we are just seeing how febrile confidence in gold can actually be, and gold trades on confidence alone.

 

Gold has been rising due to the excessive liquidity in the system, people have started to doubt the value of money given so much was being manufactured. Now this situation is in reverse, how can we know where the bottom is?

 

Don't forget how far silver and gold fell after their last rally 20 odd years ago...

It's been a good £ hedge. I wouldn't put my life's savings in it. However, for those who have, if Bubble Vision start shouting buy, watch out below.

----

Minor whinge moment... At times I really do rue the day I decided to get into the whole gold and silver thing. At the start of 2008 I was minding my own business hedging my GBP savings with GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF shorts - had I stuck with that approach and not dabbled in G&S I would have protected my savings well and made a healthy profit. Instead, my savings have been exposed to this devaluation, and I've lost a sizeable wedge of cash on G&S.

 

Looking at the GBP/JPY chart this evening really breaks my heart. I bailed out of that in July and concentrated on G&S. What a mistake?!!

That's the game unfortunately. You have to take it on the chin. If you really want to make a hash of it you'll sell now - don't.

The fundamentals haven't changed.

My situation. I hold PM within my pension only. I don't care what anyone has to say about paper, so don't bother. I remember the gold bear and if anyone here does they will understand what happens to physical gold. I'm looking at PM's over the next five years. If it doesn't happen then the time span changes to twenty years. I'm not interested in short term volatility other than from the POV of reading posts written by people who've speculated with money they may need in the next five years to catch the bottom of the property market.

Just dropped through $740.

Did anyone listen to JP on FSN Q-calls today?

 

Though I greatly respect JP, I think he might be a little confused about the velocity of money in the US today. Two callers asked why we we could not be experiencing what happened when the bubble deflated in Japan, which led to deflation and a hoarding of cash. His answer was although the CB pushed out enormous amounts of money, the velocity of money in Japan was extremely low with the implication that it is not in the US. But is not the velocity of money in the US extremely low now also... this is what we call the credit crisis... liquidity trap... frozen credit markets...when money is not moving! Notice also that investors are hoarding cash!

 

Also, he keeps referring to "disinflation" as if he is allergic to the word deflation.

 

Any opinions?

He's into the hyper inflationary depression thing. This would mean treasury yields soaring as the debt is dumped. One thing that's still being bought are treasuries - safety play. At some point there will be a very large sell off and subsequent tsunami of dollars that will hit everything tangible - there's the velocity right there.

no,

That's a shame.

same question here. i would be comfortable shorting if we top in the dollar or bottom in the stock market and none of this is yet confirmed

Did you do it?

Yes, finally there is some movement. It's also amazing how well you can see the first wave striking in August last year, and then the new wave/leg down right now.

 

It's looking extremely bullish.

same question here. i would be comfortable shorting if we top in the dollar or bottom in the stock market and none of this is yet confirmed

There is going to be at least one more big institutional implosion. So it might be wise to wait. However, if you've got enough in your margin account then now is as good a time as any to short.

Guys and Gals of the GEI gold thread.......

 

According to HPC, we are now officially "Gold Purists" and not "Gold Bugs". Has our status risen these last few days?

ETFS’ physically-backed firms Metal Securities and Gold Bullion Securities, and Shell-backed Oil Securities, are unaffected by AIG’s problems, with ETFS reporting active markets in all of them.

Will the ten year T-note break 120 or should I short it now?

Gold was mentioned on Radio 4 today in the context of "investors looking for a safe haven".

I might get back in next month.

I thought i post it here too [its in the podcasts thread too]

 

 

This is the most comprehensive lecture on money by Bruce McCarthy, recorded in 1984 - this man is a very dedicated man who spent all his life uncovering the truth. It is packed with references, and very relevant today.

 

This is a must listen.

 

Webpage

 

http://diametrics.info/audio/

 

Bruce McCarthy's Monetary Reality Seminar

 

Then right click to save as, the parts - its 3.5 hours long.

 

Heres a teaser - did you know there is no such thing as a money?

I've had this on in the car for a few days. It frustrates me that someone who has the intellect to expose one ubiquitous confidence trick so eloquently can fall completely for another - Christianity. There are a few antisemitic jabs in there too, which concern me.

I'm looking forward to Saturday's FSN. There's been a tension in Jim's voice of late that I've not heard before. I just hope it goes lower so I can buy more.

Ten year T-note has to be the spread short of the day.

goverment eh ? that is nice, so humans are in charge of the money supply then, yeah ? good luck with that mate.

Look at the long history of gold backed currency, it's retarded!