Important LOW (P 10.00) may finally be in place

SHLPH -All

===

KITCO - Apr 7,8,9, 2024:  $27.82

Conclusion on Viewing these charts:  (see previous page)

If Silver breaks out over $30, it could go "bananas", giving BTC a run for the money.  $50?  Very possible.  $100 maybe even.

===

Turning to silver, the Heraeus analysts said that the gray metal appears to be rising on the back of the strong performance of other metals of late.

“The price of silver rose above $27/oz last week after having struggled relative to gold over the past two months,” they wrote. “Silver appears to have benefitted from both the investment/consumer and industrial demand sectors, each making up ~50% of total silver demand. The copper price has risen steadily thanks to concerns over tightening supply. Where copper goes, silver tends to follow.”

“Silver is a higher beta commodity than gold, so if retail investors show more interest as ETF holdings rise then it could outperform gold,” they noted. “Additionally, and in contrast to the gold market, silver investors re-entered the market for ETFs, with 10.7 moz of inflows in the last fortnight, taking total silver ETF holdings 3% higher year-to-date at 724 moz.”

SILVER over $30 soon?:  First, $36, then into the $40's...

SILVER Long term chart, back to 2009

SILVER Back to 1900

NOT the CHEAPEST - But called "The Best"

VIDEO:  Top 5 "Best Of The Best" Mining Stocks

Things Can Change, eh?

RICK RULES. Best-of-Best, early 2022

Symbol :  Company Name     :  ye’21 :  ye’23 :  apr’24 : % chg

      =  GLD   : GOLD etf.         :

1. FNV   / Franco Nevada: 137.20: 000.00: 000.00: -10.9%
2. WPM  / Wheaton Prec.:  42.78:   00.00:   00.00:  +18.2%
3. RGLD / Royal Gold       :
4. GOLD / Barrick Gold    :
5. AEM   / Agnico Eagle   :
6. NEM   / Newmont Mng.:

FNV: $122.31, vs YE'21 (137.20): - 10.9%

WPM: $50.57, vs YE'21 ($42.78): +18.2%

RGLD:

GOLD: $17.86,   WPM: $50.57, vs YE'21 ($42.78): +18.2%

AEM: vs YE'21 ($00.00): +00.0%

The INFLATION CYCLE has turned UP, & Rates are higher too.

Copper vs TNX: xx: 2023: $4.44 /$89= xx, DBA: xx, USO: xx

Longer Cycles turned UP in 2020, after the initial Covid deflation Shock.

DBA (Agri.Commodities) chart shows this clearly. And the price rise now has a "second wind", as Food price push up again.

XOI / NYSE ARCA Oil Index : quote: 

XOI: NYSE ARCO OIL Index  :
Low:   Mar.  2003: $417 :
Peak: May  2008: 1,670 +300% :
Low:   Nov. 2008:  $751   - 46% :
Peak: Jun.  2014:  1,738 +131% :
Low:   Mar, 2020:  $443   - 75% :
Last:  Apr.  2024:  2,260 +410%

If Looking for a possible LOW in terms of GOLD Oz - PSEI is already cheap...

PSEI: 6,745 / Phl. Gold (Kitco: $2,329 x56.59) = Php.131,800 /oz. = 5.12% of a Gold Oz.

From Table, above:  PSEI has been sliding into a Low...

Yr.End $/Php: GOLD:  PhpAU   yr.Chg:     PSEI:  yr.Chg:  In Oz.:
2017 :  50.39 : 1291.0 : 65.05k: +13.9%: 8,558:: +25.1%: 0.132: > Peak: 9,100, Jan.2018
2018 :  52.77 : 1279.0 : 67.49k: +3.75%: 7,466.:  -12.8%: 0.111 :
2019 :  50.71 : 1519.5:  77.05k:  +14.1%:   7,815.:  +4.67%: 0.101:
2020 : 48.01 : 1877.3:  90.13k:  +17.0%:   7,140.:  -8.64%: 0.079
2021 :  51.00 : 1827.5:  93.20k: +3.14%:  7,335.: +2.73%: 0.079
2022 :  55.68: 1823.9:  101.6k: +9.01%:  6,556.:  -10.6%: 0.065
2023 :  55.40: 2062.9: 114.3k: +12.5%:  6,450.:  -1.62%: 0.056
04/’24  56.42: 2273.0: 128.2k: +12.1%:  6,864.: +6.42%: 0.054

0.054 = Near LOW? only 5.4% of a Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

In last two days, the ratio fell to 5.11%, as Gold went on rising.

If PSEI slides to 5,000 and gold stays at $2,300, the ratio will be just 3.85% at Php.56.50

PSEI: 5,000 / Phl. Gold (Kitco: $2,300 x56.5) = Php.130,000 /oz:
    . = 3.85% of a Gold Oz. :
Somehow, it seems possible that PSEI will not get so cheap. :
If it doesn’t, then maybe a global correction in Stocks will drag :
down PSEI, global indices and the GOLD price also.

TALKING LONG CYCLES of "about 20 years"

Major PSEI PEAKS were 1997 and 2018 (9,100 in Jan.'18)

Followed by a "famine period" of up to 7 years... 

My Current Guess is the "C" Low in PSEI will come in at roughly 5,000 +/- 1,000 in Oct.2024, or Oct.2025.

An exact 7-year correction, from the Jan.2018 Peak, would end in Q1.2025.  

I am using Wilson Sy's Seasonal Cycle of "Halloween to Valentine's Day" being a period of SEASONAL Strength, :
we can expect a Cycle Low possibly in either Oct.2024 or Oct.2025, if the Famine period lasts 7 years this time. :
I bet on the seasonal cycle this past year, and now see signs in April 2024 that PSEI may be rolling over. :
And so we could get some real weakness into one of those "sweet spot" seasonal low points.

( BTW,  these are merely intelligent guesses, using Cyclical building blocks. Time with tell how accurate this is. 
It is also possible that the LOW is already in place - see "c?" above.  We may have seen a premature Low in 
Oct.2022 when PSEI touched 5,700 (actual 5,700 close on xx.xx.22.)  If so, then the recent uptrend will continue 
and the PSEI may soon find new highs at 7,500 and higher, exceeding the Q1.2022 highs.  I give this premature 
Low scenario, maybe a 20% probability. That will shift to a higher probability if PSEI makes new highs for 2024.)

GOLD PSEI,  Monthly prices since 2000

          : Phl.Gold: Oct.'19 $1507 x 51.14= P77,070; 

          : Apr.'24 : $2273 x 56.42= P128,243

YrEnd: PHP/$: Gold : PHgold: +1yr % : PSEI : +1yr %: PS/oz.
1990 : 28.00 : $392.8: 10.99k : ==== : 0,651.: ==== :  0.059:
1991 : 26.67 : $353.2 : P9420: - 14.3%: 1,152.: +77.0%: 0.122:
1992 : 25.32 : $332.9: P8429: - 10.5%: 1,256: +9.03%: 0.149:
1993 : 27.79 : $391.8 : 10.89k: +29.2%: 3,196: +155.%: 0.293:
1994 : 24.15 : $383.3 : P9257: -15.0%: 2,786.: -12.8%: 0.301:
1995 : 26.21 : $387.0 : 10.14k: +9.54%: 2,594: -6.90%: 0.256:
1996 : 26.29 : $369.3: P9709: -4.25%: 3,171.: +22.2%: 0.327: 

         > End of Millennium "HIGH" for stocks??

1997 : 37.17 : $290.2 : 10.79k:  +11.1% : 1,869.: - 41.1% : 0.173:
1998 : 39.07 : $287.8 : 11.24k: +4.17%:  1,969: +5.35%: 0.175:
1999 : 40.62 : $290.3 : 11.79k: +4.91%: 2,143: +8.84%: 0.182:
2000 : 49.90: $272.7 : 13.61k: +16.6%:  1,495.: -30.2%: 0.110:
2001 : 51.79 : $276.5 : 14.32k: +5.22%:  1,168.:  -21.9%: 0.082:
2002 : 53.52 : $347.2 : 18.58k: +29.7%: 1,018.: -12.8%: 0.055:
2003 : 55.45 : $416.3 : 23.08k: +24.2%:  N/A- : ==== : ====:
2004 : 56.18 : $435.6 : 24.57k: +6.46%:  N/A- : ==== : ====:
2005 : 53.61 : $513.0 : 27.50k: +11.9%: 2,096.:  ==== : 0.076:
2006 : 49.47: $632.0 : 31.27k: +13.7%: 2,983: +42.3% 0.095:
2007 : 41.74 : $833.8 : 34.80k: +11.3%: 3,622: +21.4%: 0.104:
2008 : 48.09: $869.8 : 41.83k: +20.2%: 1,873: -48.3% :0.045:

           > LOW: only 0.045 Oz will buy the PSEI index
2009 : 46.42 : 1087.5 : 50.48k: +20.7%: 3,053: +63.0%: 0.060:
2010 : 43.95 : 1405.5 : 61.77k: +22.4%: 4,201.: +37.6%: 0.068:
2011 : 43.65 : 1531.0 : 66.83k: +8.19%: 4,372: +4.07%: 0.065:
2012 : 41.01 :  1657.5 : 67.97k:  +1.71%: 5,813.: +33.0%: 0.086:
2013 : 44.10 : 1204.5 : 53.12k:  -11.9%:  5,890: +1.32%:  0.111:
2014 : 44.69: 1206.0 : 53.90k: +1.47%: 7,231.: +22.8%: 0.134:
2015 : 47.23 : 1069.0 : 50.59k: - 6.15%: 6,984.: -3.42%: 0.138:
2016 : 49.82 : 1145.9 : 57.09k: +12.8%: 6,841.: -2.05%:  0.120:
2017 : 50.39 : 1291.0 : 65.05k: +13.9%: 8,558:: +25.1%: 0.132:
2018 : 52.77 : 1279.0 : 67.49k: +3.75%: 7,466.: - 12.8%: 0.111:
9/’19 : 52.11 : 1485.3 : 77.40k:  +14.7%: 7,779.:  +4.19%: 0.101: 

         > 0.101: = 10.1% of a Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

2019 : 50.71 : 1519.5: 77.05k: +14.1%: 7,815.:  +4.67%: 0.101:
2020 : 48.01 : 1877.3: 90.13k: +17.0%: 7,140.:  -8.64%: 0.079
2021 : 51.00 : 1827.5: 93.20k: +3.14%: 7,335.: +2.73%: 0.079
2022 : 55.68: 1823.9:  101.6k: +9.01%: 6,556.:  -10.6%: 0.065
2023 : 55.40: 2062.9: 114.3k: +12.5%: 6,450.:  -1.62%: 0.056
04/’24 56.42: 2273.0: 128.2k: +12.1%:  6,864.: +6.42%: 0.054

> 0.054 = Near LOW? 5.4% of a Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

====

PSEI in GOLD oz. : back near a Low.  Learn The Rules...

"Expected level of PSEI is Decent Value at about 10% of the Gold price"
… Calculated like this...
PSEI ( 7,947) / Gold ( $1507 x 51.14= Php 77.07k)= 0.103 Oz.

Simple Rule of thumb for Recent Range may be: Expect  approx.10% of an Gold Oz to buy you the PSEI.

(Rule-1: One Ounces buys very approx. 10x the PSEI. Using Gold price in PHP.) :
(Rule-2: Aim to BUY CHEAPER, than the "Rule-1 Price", like half that, even 5% of an Oz, or less.) :
(Rule-3: HOLD a cheap core position for LT, but be willing to trade around it. Improve it as you go.) :
(Rule-4: Long term SELL level might be 1o%-15% of a Gold Oz. 1997 Peak was over 30% on an Oz.)

GOLD PSEI,  Monthly prices since 2000

 Oct.2019. $1507 x 51.14= P77,070;  Apr.2024. $2273 x 56.42= P128,243 = P12,800 "expected" PSEI

PSEI / Phil. Stock Index, since 1988: 10yr.: 5yr.: 1yr. / LAST: 6,745 - chart w/o Labels

Oct.2019 version

SIMPLE RULE?  worked well since about 2000...

Buy PSEI below 0.050 oz. / Sell PSEI above 0.130 - or something like that

YrEnd: PHP/$ : Gold : PHgold: +1yr % :  PSEI : +1yr % : PS/oz.
1990 : 28.00 : $392.8 : 10.99k:  ==== : 0,651.:  ==== :  0.059:
1991 : 26.67 : $353.2 : P9420: - 14.3%: 1,152.:  +77.0%: 0.122:
1992 : 25.32 : $332.9: P8429: - 10.5%: 1,256.: +9.03%: 0.149:
1993 : 27.79 : $391.8 : 10.89k: +29.2%: 3,196.: +155.%: 0.293:
1994 : 24.15 : $383.3 : P9257:  -15.0%: 2,786.:  -12.8%: 0.301: 
1995 : 26.21 :  $387.0 : 10.14k: +9.54%: 2,594: -6.90%: 0.256:
1996 : 26.29 : $369.3 : P9709: -4.25%: 3,171.: +22.2%: 0.327: 

           > End of Millennium "HIGH" for stocks??

1997 : 37.17  :  $290.2 : 10.79k: +11.1%: 1,869.:  - 41.1%:  0.173:
1998 : 39.07 :  $287.8 : 11.24k: +4.17%: 1,969.: +5.35%: 0.175:
1999 : 40.62 : $290.3 : 11.79k: +4.91%: 2,143.: +8.84%: 0.182:
2000 : 49.90 : $272.7 : 13.61k: +16.6%: 1,495.: - 30.2%: 0.110:
2001 : 51.79 : $276.5 : 14.32k: +5.22%:  1,168.: - 21.9%: 0.082:
2002 : 53.52 : $347.2 : 18.58k: +29.7%: 1,018.: - 12.8%: 0.055:
2003 : 55.45 : $416.3 : 23.08k: +24.2%: N/A- :  ==== : ====:
2004 : 56.18 : $435.6 : 24.57k: +6.46%: N/A- :  ==== : ====:
2005 : 53.61 : $513.0 : 27.50k:  +11.9%: 2,096.:  ==== : 0.076:
2006 : 49.47: $632.0 : 31.27k: +13.7%: 2,983.: +42.3% 0.095:
2007 : 41.74 : $833.8 : 34.80k: +11.3%: 3,622.: +21.4%: 0.104:
2008 : 48.09: $869.8 : 41.83k: +20.2%: 1,873.: -48.3%: 0.045:

            > LOW: only 0.045 Oz will buy the PSEI index
2009 : 46.42 : 1087.5 : 50.48k: +20.7%: 3,053: +63.0%: 0.060:
2010 : 43.95 : 1405.5 : 61.77k:  +22.4%: 4,201.: +37.6%: 0.068:
2011 :  43.65 : 1531.0 : 66.83k:  +8.19%: 4,372: +4.07%: 0.065:
2012 :  41.01 : 1657.5 :  67.97k:  +1.71%: 5,813.: +33.0%: 0.086:
2013 : 44.10 : 1204.5 :  53.12k:  -11.9%:  5,890.: +1.32%:  0.111:
2014 : 44.69: 1206.0 : 53.90k:  +1.47%: 7,231.:  +22.8%: 0.134:
2015 : 47.23 : 1069.0 : 50.59k: - 6.15%:  6,984.: -3.42%: 0.138:
2016 : 49.82 : 1145.9 : 57.09k:  +12.8%: 6,841.:  -2.05%:  0.120:
2017 : 50.39 : 1291.0 : 65.05k:  +13.9%: 8,558: +25.1%:  0.132:
2018 : 52.77 : 1279.0 : 67.49k:  +3.75%: 7,466.: - 12.8%:  0.111:
9/’19 :  52.11 : 1485.3 : 77.40k:  +14.7%:  7,779.: +4.19%:  0.101: 

            > 0.101: = 10.1% of a Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

2019 :  50.71 : 1519.5:  77.05k:  +14.1%:   7,815.:  +4.67%: 0.101:
2020 : 48.01 : 1877.3:  90.13k:  +17.0%:   7,140.:  -8.64%: 0.079
2021 :  51.00 : 1827.5:  93.20k: +3.14%:  7,335.: +2.73%: 0.079
2022 :  55.68: 1823.9:  101.6k: +9.01%:  6,556.:  -10.6%: 0.065
2023 :  55.40: 2062.9: 114.3k: +12.5%:  6,450.:  -1.62%: 0.056
04/’24  56.42: 2273.0: 128.2k: +12.1%:   6,864.: +6.42%: 0.054

0.054 = Near LOW? only 5.4% of a Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

=====
Sources: bigcharts /PesoCross.XL > www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/excel/pesocross.xls
Gold London pm, Kitco : https://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

> See TIMELINE thread

SIL / AGQ.  SLV : Silver Miners vs. Silver etf, with Ratio charts

SIL (30.08) / AGQ-33.19 = 90.6%, JNUG- 36.31, 120.7% :: SLV- 24.49, 73.8%, sil/slv= 122.8%

(. UPDATED: Apr. 2024. )

SIL-etc... : 10yr: 5yr: from Mar.2018:  Mar.2020 : 10d/ SIL: $33.93 / SLV: $21.28 = r-159.4%, / AGQ: $32.48 = r-104.5%,

===

STR = VistaMalls:

Vista Malls is a shopping mall chain of property developer Vista Land founded and chaired by Filipino billionaire and former politician Manny Villar. It is one of the growing major shopping mall retailers in the Philippines, along with Ayala Malls, Megaworld Lifestyle Malls, SM Supermalls and Robinsons Malls.

STR-etc: 2016: Jun'2018: Jun'2020: May'2022: ytd / Last: 2.35 +0.07 / VLL: 1.58 = 148.7%

Jun'2020: ytd / 

STR-etc: 2016: Jun'2018: 2.35 +0.07 / VLL: 1.58 = 148.7%

GOLD's DECADE?   

( It has taken some time, & patience to get here. Maybe the Golden Decade -for Gold Stocks- is about to start, but the time since the thread started has been pretty decent for Gold,):

Adam Hamilton: From a Cyclical Low to a Super Bull - Why This Could be Gold's Decade  >

UPDATE>..

SIMPLE RULE?  worked since about 2000...

Buy PSEI below 0.080 oz. / Sell PSEI above 0.120 - or something like that

YrEnd: PHP/$ : Gold : PHgold: +1yr % :  PSEI : +1yr % : PS/oz.
2008 : 48.09 : $869.8 : 41.83k: +20.2%: 1,873.: -48.3%: 0.045

0.045: LOW: only 0.045 Oz will buy the PSEI index
2009 : 46.42 : 1087.5 : 50.48k: +20.7%: 3,053: +63.0%: 0.060:
2010 : 43.95 : 1405.5 : 61.77k: +22.4%: 4,201.: +37.6%:  0.068:
2011 : 43.65 : 1531.0 :  66.83k: +8.19%: 4,372.: +4.07%: 0.065:
2012 :  41.01 : 1657.5 :  67.97k:  +1.71%: 5,813.: +33.0%: 0.086:
2013 : 44.10 : 1204.5 :  53.12k: - 11.9%: 5,890.: +1.32%:  0.111:
2014 : 44.69 : 1206.0 : 53.90k: +1.47%: 7,231.: +22.8%:  0.134:
2015 : 47.23 : 1069.0 : 50.59k: - 6.15%: 6,984.: - 3.42%: 0.138:
2016 : 49.82 : 1145.9 : 57.09k:  +12.8%: 6,841.: - 2.05%: 0.120:
2017 :  50.39 : 1291.0 : 65.05k: +13.9%: 8,558.: +25.1%: 0.132:
2018 :  52.77 : 1279.0 : 67.49k: +3.75%: 7,466.: -12.8%:  0.111:
09/’19   52.11 : 1485.3 : 77.40k: +14.7%: 7,779.: +4.19%:  0.101:

0.101: = 10.1% of an Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

2019 :  50.71 :  1519.5:  77.05k:  +00.0%:  7,815.: +0.00%: 0.101
2020 :  48.01 : 1877.3:  90.13k:  +00.0%:  7,140.: +0.00%: 0.079
2021 :   51.00 : 1827.5:  93.20k: +00.0%: 7,335.: +0.00%: 0.079
2022 :  55.68 : 1823.9:  101.6k: +00.0%: 6,556.:  +0.00%: 0.065
2023 :  55.40 : 2062.9: 114.3k: +00.0%: 6,450.: +0.00%: 0.056
04/’24  56.42 : 2273.0: 128.2k: +00.0%: 6,864.: +0.00%: 0.054

0.054: = LOW? only 5.4% of an Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI

=====
Sources: bigcharts
Gold London pm, Kitco : https://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

Portfolio: GLO: 1,754 / PSEI (6,864)= 25.6%, MBT: 67.75, 0.99%

MBT:  / PSEI (6,864)= MBT: 67.75, 0.99%

===

Portfolio: GLO: 1,754 / PSEI (6,864)= 25.6%, MBT: 67.75, 0.99%

MBT:  / PSEI (6,864)= MBT: 67.75, 0.99%

===

FNI / Global FerroNickel (1.68) / NIKL (3.89)= 43.2%

FNI / APX (2.88)=58.3%,  PX (3.00), MARC (0.78)

FNI : 5yr

===

COL-etc, Last: 2.17 / PSEI (6,864) = 0.032%

ARIS.wtB is in its final month, before expiry.. C$2.68 / $4.90 ( -2.21= 2.69)

ARIS: $5.43 > could hot C$8 again

CDE had a good day: $4.18 +0.41, +10.9%

EMX / EMX Royalties: $1.72 > update: $1.90 PE: na, Y: na, (R: 1.41 to 2.20 ), 

LIRC / Lithium Royalties (C$7.43) / LIT (45.29): 16.4%, ELEC (C$.20) xx%, UGL (72.26)

LIT / Lithium & Batt. Tech etf ($45.29) 

LIT-etc: ($45.29) / UGL ($72.26) = 62.7%.  / ATH ($98) = 46.2%

BREAKOUT? Watch T-to-R Ratio (possible High near 13%?)

Gold Royalty co's are all BID!  Breakout coming next? 

/ RGLD 121.8:

Tfpm 14.45, 11.9%, Sand 5.25, 4.3%; Fnv 119.2, 97.9%

Ratio: TFPM to-RGLD: 11.9%; B@10%, S@13%

==

Metalla merged with Nova, which was accretive to NAV

MTA: 2017: 2019: 2022: Ytd: $3.11, pe: na, Y: na

2017:

Rising COST-of-Capital made it almost impossible to Grow

"There's nothing out there, as remotely attractive as our stock".. "We have 5 producing assets"

Metalla Royalty (TSXV:MTA) - A Growing Precious Metals and Copper Royalty Co

COMMENT 

FSM : ALL: $3.73 +0.11

Still Correcting?

AP : /35.50, w/UB: xx, xx%; AEV: 46.85, 132%, FGEN: 19.64, 55.3% : PE: 7.85, Y: 6.48% (R: 29.40 to 39.55 )